在無數(shù)次特朗普深夜推文的咆哮中，在史上最高的股價中，在比特幣的一路狂飆中，2017年就這樣結(jié)束了。

進入2018年，資產(chǎn)價值的穩(wěn)步增長和波動性的衰減似乎已經(jīng)成了“新常態(tài)”，全球經(jīng)濟增長保持穩(wěn)健，各個資產(chǎn)類別都彌漫著樂觀情緒。但現(xiàn)在還不是我們驕傲自滿的時候。

我們必須看到，隨著一些政策行將就木，一些熱門交易無疾而終，2018年將是各種風(fēng)險匯聚的一年，是你必須始終保持警惕的一年。以下就是2018年全球市場上最重要的一些問題，這些問題或許令你喜憂參半，不過卻不失為了解新的一年全球市場動態(tài)的一個好的切入點。

債務(wù)投資趨冷

誠然，一部分人的垃圾債大爆發(fā)之說已經(jīng)被證明是杞人憂天，高收益?zhèn)屯顿Y級債券預(yù)計今年都會給投資者帶來回報。然而在債券領(lǐng)域，投資者2018年面臨的風(fēng)險也不少。美聯(lián)儲目前正在縮表，歐洲央行放緩了購債計劃，有預(yù)測顯示，今年的通脹率終于會有所上升。

據(jù)美銀美林12月發(fā)布的一項調(diào)查顯示，債權(quán)投資者普遍認為，泡沫是該資產(chǎn)類別面臨的最大風(fēng)險，緊隨其后的是高通脹和高債息。市場的現(xiàn)金流情況就反應(yīng)了投資者的這種不安心理。據(jù)彭博社數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年12月，市場出現(xiàn)了近14個月以來投資者首次從企業(yè)債交易所基金中大規(guī)模抽資的情況。

商業(yè)周期老化

根據(jù)美國全國經(jīng)濟研究局和彭博情報的數(shù)據(jù)，如果美國經(jīng)濟2018年上半年能夠繼續(xù)保持當(dāng)前增速，則美國經(jīng)濟將基本達到現(xiàn)代史上第二長的發(fā)展周期。

美國經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)健復(fù)蘇，有助于促進全球經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，激發(fā)各個市場的樂觀情緒。花旗銀行的主要經(jīng)濟體驚喜指數(shù)目前已逼近2010年以來的最高水平，不少單項數(shù)據(jù)還超過了分析師的預(yù)期。

2018年，面臨金融過熱和企業(yè)增資增債等種種風(fēng)險，投資者必須謹慎評估美國當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟增長周期還能維持多久。

選舉風(fēng)險

在全球經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)健增長、美聯(lián)儲采取謹慎貨幣政策和弱勢美元等因素刺激下，2017年，新興市場貨幣及股票迎來了8年來的最高收益。不過這種短暫繁榮或許不會持續(xù)太久，尤其是據(jù)華爾街預(yù)測，發(fā)達國家的貨幣政策或?qū)⒂瓉斫陙淼淖畲缶o縮幅度。

2018年也是很多國家的大選年。彭博-巴克萊發(fā)展中國家本地債券指數(shù)中的半數(shù)以上國家今年都將迎來大選。雖然像俄羅斯等國的選舉結(jié)果是不難預(yù)測的，但在巴西和墨西哥等國家，目前的選情卻相當(dāng)膠著。

歐元升值

2017年，歐元兌美元匯率創(chuàng)下了14年來的最佳水平。2018年，歐元相對美元或?qū)⒗^續(xù)升值。到今年年底，歐元兌美元匯率升值到1:1.229的概率大約是三分之二，升值到1:1.256的概率也在五成。

利率掉期“正?；?/strong>

And just like that, the year in which we learned to live with late night Twitter rants from a U.S. president, record-high stock prices and the bitcoin bubble comes to a close.

As we enter 2018, steadily rising assets and diminishing volatility have become the norm, global growth remains strong, and optimism prevails across asset classes. Yet now isn’t the time for complacency.

Between politics and popular trades losing luster, there are boundless risks to keep you on your toes for the next 12 months. Here are some of the most important market themes — both reassuring and unsettling — to get you started.

Cooling Credit Rally

Sure, cries of a junk bond Armageddon have proved premature, with both high-yield and investment-grade bonds handing investors returns for the year, but plenty of risks threaten the upside in 2018. The Federal Reserve is unwinding its balance sheet, the European Central Bank is slowing purchases and forecasts show inflation may finally rise.

Credit investors polled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch for a survey published in December named a bubble as the biggest risk to the asset class, followed by higher inflation and rising yields. Flows reflect some of that unease. Investors pulled money out of exchange-traded funds that track corporate credit for the first time in 14 months in December, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Ageing Business Cycle

If the U.S. economy can keep chugging along through the first quarter of 2018, it will match the second-longest expansionary period in modern history, according to data compiled by the National Bureau of Economic Research and Bloomberg Intelligence.

That’s helping to lift global economies, spurring optimism across markets. The Citigroup economic surprise index of major economies hovers just under its highest level since 2010 after a slew of data surpassed analyst expectations.

In the year ahead, investors will have to assess the sustainability of the cycle amid risks of financial overheating and corporate America’s levered balance sheets.

Mind the Elections

Rising global growth, the Fed’s cautious approach to monetary tightening and a weaker dollar helped emerging-market currencies and stocks post their biggest returns in eight years in 2017. But it might not take much to knock that equilibrium, especially with Wall Street forecasting the biggest tightening of developed-world monetary policy in a decade.

Investors will also have to maneuver around elections in countries that make up more than 50 percent of a Bloomberg Barclays developing-nation local bond index. While votes in countries like Russia are predictable, tight contests are on the cards for fellow market heavyweights like Brazil and Mexico.

Euro Rally Lives

As the euro heads toward its best annual run against the dollar in 14 years, options markets that price probabilities on the world’s most traded currency pair point to the rally continuing in 2018. There’s a two-thirds probability that it appreciates as high as $1.229 by year end, while the odds that it rises to $1.256 are even.

‘Normal’ Swaps

One of the stranger distortions created by post-crisis regulation may be poised to end. Swap rates, what companies pay to exchange their fixed interest payments for floating ones, are on track to rise back above Treasury yields across all maturities for the first time since 2014.

Strategists predict Republicans’ plans to roll back post-crisis regulatory burdens will make holding Treasuries more attractive, thus pushing yields below swap rates again. The shift matters because swap rates serve as a benchmark for a variety of debt instruments purchased with borrowed funds, including mortgage-backed and auto-loan securities.

Volatility Return

In 2017, investors were caught off guard by the near-complete absence of volatility. In 2018 they could get a wakeup call from price fluctuations roaring back to life.

Over $2 trillion in strategies are effectively reliant on market stability to generate returns, according to October estimates from Artemis Capital’s Christopher Cole. That raises the risk of outsize losses across stock and bond markets around the world if volatility finally returns.

Fed Fresh Faces

Jerome Powell won’t be the only new kid in class at the U.S. central bank next year. The “Big Three” (chair, vice chair and New York Fed president) will be completely different after Janet Yellen’s stint in charge ends in February and the head of the New York Fed retires in the middle of the year.

They’ll have to weigh a tight labor market and sound economic data against muted consumer prices. How will they react if inflation roars back to life? And what if it remains stubbornly weak?

Yield Curve

The narrowing spread between short- and long-dated Treasuries continues to grab Wall Street’s attention. A completely flat — or inverted — curve has the potential to roil bond trades, challenge the Fed’s tightening path, and raises the risk of a downturn in the business cycle.

Six of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg in early December said the Treasury yield curve will invert at least briefly within the next 24 months, with four projecting it in 2018.

Don’t Forget China

Two of the more remarkable moves in 2017 were soaring U.S. stocks and tumbling Chinese government bonds, according to a global analysis of historical price patterns that veer from the norm, known as standard deviations. While the S&P 500’s valuation is endlessly analyzed, the outlook for the world’s largest emerging debt market is far less understood.

Chinese bonds will come under pressure again in the first half of 2018 as the central bank tightens monetary policy and the government toughens financial regulations, according to Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Plc. The rise in yields will attract domestic and foreign investors in the second half, she said.

Crypto Craze

How long can bitcoin’s parabolic increase last? It depends who you ask. Hedge fund manager Michael Novogratz thinks it will go all the way to $40,000 by the end of the first quarter. Bulls say the recent creation of futures will broaden crypto ownership because derivatives are the first step toward ETFs and other more liquid instruments.

The skeptics, however, points to a possible pin-prick by regulators. Cryptocurrencies “could be stopped in their tracks” if authorities began applying anti-money laundering laws, said Marc Ostwald, global strategist at ADM Investor Services International in London.