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從比特幣到伯利茲,2017年最好和最差資產(chǎn)

從比特幣到伯利茲,2017年最好和最差資產(chǎn)

彭博社 2018-01-17
在2017年,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最高的資產(chǎn)總得來(lái)說(shuō)表現(xiàn)良好,投資者明顯看好股票、新興市場(chǎng)貨幣和公司債券。

這一年是持有比特幣的絕佳時(shí)段,但投資烏茲別克斯坦的貨幣蘇姆就糟糕了。

2017年已經(jīng)過(guò)去,環(huán)視全球范圍內(nèi)的贏家和輸家,總的來(lái)說(shuō)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最高的資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)良好,而且投資者顯然看好股票、新興市場(chǎng)貨幣和公司債券。眾人眼中最安全、起伏最小的證券,比如日本政府債券,則落在了后面。

2017年,最引人關(guān)注的投資話(huà)題可能非加密貨幣莫屬,從吉米·戴蒙的貶斥到凱蒂·佩里就此向沃倫·巴菲特提出的問(wèn)題都是如此。比特幣幾乎飆升了15倍,以太坊、萊特幣等規(guī)模較小的數(shù)字貨幣至少上漲了60倍。當(dāng)然,和這波行情相伴的不乏將其稱(chēng)為泡沫的悲觀人士。

我們對(duì)過(guò)去一年里各類(lèi)資產(chǎn)中的領(lǐng)頭羊和副班長(zhǎng)做了如下總結(jié):

股票

看好烏克蘭股市的投資者這一年過(guò)的很好。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織去年5月曾表示,它看到烏克蘭經(jīng)濟(jì)“有令人欣喜 的復(fù)蘇跡象”而且“為今后的增長(zhǎng)打下了很有希望的基礎(chǔ)”。烏克蘭股市是新興市場(chǎng)整體行情的一部分,它們上揚(yáng)的原因是投資者為尋求更高的回報(bào)而進(jìn)入發(fā)展中國(guó)家。

不過(guò),對(duì)把寶押在卡塔爾和巴基斯坦股市的投資者來(lái)說(shuō),這一年就不那么好過(guò)了。2017年年中,沙特、阿聯(lián)酋、巴林和埃及聯(lián)手切斷了卡塔爾的外交和交通運(yùn)輸途徑,致使其陷入混亂。在巴基斯坦,股指面臨高基數(shù),而且受到了外資撤離的不利影響(注:我們沒(méi)有考慮全年上漲386.5倍的委內(nèi)瑞拉股市,因?yàn)檫@幾乎完全是委內(nèi)瑞拉貨幣快速貶值所致)。

債券

已有30年歷史的固定收益證券行情在2017年繼續(xù)上演,通脹加速上升以及貨幣政策收緊將成為終結(jié)者的預(yù)言再遭打臉。2017年表現(xiàn)最好的債券是2016年的輸家,其中最為突出的包括希臘和阿根廷債券。

要在債券上虧錢(qián)得下一番功夫——日本央行給政府債券市場(chǎng)兜底以及委內(nèi)瑞拉經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰讓日債和委國(guó)債券分別成為發(fā)達(dá)和發(fā)展中市場(chǎng)上表現(xiàn)最差的債券。

小國(guó)伯利茲在新興市場(chǎng)政府債券排行榜上拔得頭籌,原因是去年4月穆迪投資者服務(wù)公司上調(diào)了其債券評(píng)級(jí)。

公司債券方面,美國(guó)高收益?zhèn)只黠@,食品飲料、零售和交通運(yùn)輸公司的債券大幅上揚(yáng),印刷公司Cenveo Corp的債券持有人則蒙受了損失。

在新興市場(chǎng)公司債中,印尼一家能源公司的債券表現(xiàn)最佳,和巴西大型建筑公司Odebrecht SA有關(guān)的債券則成為投資者應(yīng)該避開(kāi)的投資對(duì)象,原因是這家公司卷入了橫掃南美的腐敗丑聞。

大宗商品

鈀通常用于汽油車(chē)的尾氣凈化裝置,2017年其漲幅超過(guò)50%,居各類(lèi)貴金屬之首,原因是投資者認(rèn)為汽油車(chē)使用量將上升。銅和鋁在這一年的表現(xiàn)同樣不俗,主要是因?yàn)槿蚪?jīng)濟(jì)前景普遍好轉(zhuǎn),而這可能意味著工業(yè)金屬使用量的增長(zhǎng)。

另一方面,糖和天然氣在2017年走勢(shì)較差。糖價(jià)下挫是因?yàn)槿藗儞?dān)心全球供給過(guò)剩,而過(guò)去的兩個(gè)暖冬留下了大量天然氣庫(kù)存,則導(dǎo)致天然氣最近跌至10個(gè)月來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。

貨幣

貨幣領(lǐng)域的最大贏家是“名不見(jiàn)經(jīng)傳”的莫桑比克美提卡。發(fā)生債務(wù)危機(jī)后,這個(gè)東非國(guó)家一直在努力控制通脹,莫桑比克央行則表示它希望通脹率處于更低而且更穩(wěn)定的水平。

表現(xiàn)較差的貨幣中,烏茲別克斯坦蘇姆大幅下跌,原因是這個(gè)金礦豐富的國(guó)家取消了和美元掛鉤的聯(lián)系匯率制度。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Charlie

審校:夏林

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It was a great year to hold bitcoin, but a bad time to have been invested in the Uzbek soum.

As 2017 winds to a close, a look at the winners and losers around the globe shows that, broadly speaking, the riskiest assets performed well, with bullish sentiment on display in stocks, emerging-market sovereigns and corporate debt. Securities generally seen as the safest and least volatile bets — think Japanese government bonds — trailed behind.

There was perhaps no investing idea that attracted more attention in 2017 than cryptocurrencies, from Jamie Dimon’s dismissal to Katy Perry quizzing Warren Buffett about the subject. Bitcoin soared almost 1,500 percent while smaller counterparts such as ethereum and litecoin gained at least 6,000 percent. Of course, the surges were accompanied by no shortage of pessimists calling a bubble.

Here’s our wrap-up of the best and worst performers in various asset classes over the past year:

Equities

Bulls in Ukraine had a good year after the International Monetary Fund said in May that it sees “welcome signs of recovery” for the economy and “a promising basis for further growth.” It was part of a broader rally in emerging markets as investors flocked to developing nations in hopes of higher returns.

It wasn’t a good year, however, to have bet on stocks in Qatar and Pakistan. The Persian Gulf country was thrown into chaos mid-year when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt cut diplomatic and transport ties. In Pakistan, the index was coming from a high base, but also suffered from foreigners pulling money out of the market. (NOTE: We excluded the Venezuelan stock exchanges 3,865 percent gain this year because it’s almost entirely due to the effect of a rapidly devaluing currency.)

Bonds

The three-decade bull run for fixed income rolled on in 2017, defying yet again predictions that faster inflation and tighter monetary policy would bring it to an end. The bond world’s best performers were yesteryear’s losers, with Greece and Argentina among the standouts.

It took effort to lose money on bonds this year — the Japanese central bank’s stitch-up of its government-debt market, and Venezuela’s economic collapse made those two the worst performers in the developed and emerging categories, respectively.

Tiny Belize earned top marks in the emerging government-debt category after an upgrade from Moody’s Investors Service in April.

Turning to the corporate-debt world, U.S. high-yield securities saw a wide dispersion of results, from high-flying food-and-beverage, retail and transport companies to trauma for holders of bonds sold by commercial printer Cenveo Corp.

In the emerging-market corporate debt category, an Indonesian energy company topped the list, while securities tied to Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht SA — which is embroiled in a corruption scandal that stretches across South America — proved to be ones to avoid.

Commodities

Palladium, which is typically used in pollution-control devices for gasoline vehicles, led gains in precious metals this year by climbing more than 50 percent as investors bet on increased usage in vehicles. Copper and aluminum bulls also had a great year. Those gains were largely tied to better economic prospects across the globe, which would mean higher usage of industrial metals.

On the down side, sugar and natural gas had a bad year. The sweetener has been falling on concerns of a global surplus, while natural gas recently hit a 10-month low following two warm winters that left stockpiles at high levels.

Currencies

The biggest gainer in the currency space is a bit on the obscure side: the Mozambique new metical. The East African country has struggled to control inflation following a debt crisis, but the central bank has said it wants to achieve a lower and more stable rate.

On the down side, the Uzbek soum tumbled after the gold-rich republic removed the currency’s peg to the dollar.

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