美股又經(jīng)歷了走勢連連上升的一年，投資者免不了會擔(dān)心：會不會要崩盤了？

華爾街2018年美股預(yù)測顯示，至少未來12個月可能性不大。華爾街巨頭預(yù)計(jì)，接下來一年美股將繼續(xù)走高，只是不會有2017年驚艷。

在高盛資產(chǎn)管理公司發(fā)布的一段視頻中，公司董事總經(jīng)理凱恩·布倫南表示：“我們認(rèn)為，股市2018年仍會表現(xiàn)亮眼。”

隨著美國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇，投資者又預(yù)期特朗普政府會兌現(xiàn)承諾下調(diào)企業(yè)稅，2017年美國股市（以標(biāo)普500指數(shù)衡量）累計(jì)上漲20%。14家左右華爾街銀行預(yù)計(jì)，在減稅和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁增長的利好推動下，2018年標(biāo)普500還會上漲5%，漲至2818點(diǎn)。

摩根大通資產(chǎn)管理公司的全球首席策略師大衛(wèi)·凱利警告，鑒于美聯(lián)儲加息，投資者可能發(fā)現(xiàn)2018年股市波動增大，下半年增長放緩。加息意味著借貸成本增加。

美股還有走高的空間嗎？華爾街認(rèn)為有。

2017年，標(biāo)普500收于2680點(diǎn)附近。85%的受訪華爾街銀行都預(yù)計(jì)，2018年該指數(shù)還會走高。

With an unexpectedly stellar year for stock markets behind us, it’s hard not to entertain an underlying fear: When will the crash come?

Not in the next 12 months, according Wall Street’s 2018 stock market predictions. According to most major Wall Street firms, the U.S. equity market is in for yet another year of strength—albeit not one as meteoric as 2017.

“We think equities will continue to outperform in 2018,” said Kane Brenan of Goldman Sachs Asset Management in a video published by the company.

The U.S. equity market (as measured by the S&P 500 index) has surged 20% to 2,680 this year as the American economy continued its recovery and investors looked forward to corporate tax cuts promised by the Trump administration. Indeed, some 14 Wall Street banks expect the index to rise another 5% to 2,818 in the coming year courtesy of tax cuts and continued strength in the global economy.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s David Kelly warns that investors should expect greater volatility next year and slower growth in the later part of 2018 as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Higher interest rates makes it more expensive to borrow.

Does the Stock Market Still Have Room to Run? Wall Street Thinks So.

The S&P 500 is ending its year around 2,680. Eighty-five percent of Wall Street banks surveyed expected it to end higher in 2018.

看好美股的同時，多位資產(chǎn)管理經(jīng)理也在美國以外地區(qū)積極尋找投資機(jī)會。2008年到2009年大衰退以來，美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇一直領(lǐng)先于全球其他地區(qū)。

摩根大通資產(chǎn)管理的全球市場策略師大衛(wèi)·勒保維茲在2017年12月的報(bào)告中寫道：“如果要說未來一年的投資選擇，我們認(rèn)為，其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體在經(jīng)濟(jì)周期中所處的階段都比美國早得多，所以利潤增長仍有機(jī)會達(dá)到兩位數(shù)。因此在增長趨勢明確之前，先去海外市場多做些準(zhǔn)備是明智之舉?！?

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）預(yù)計(jì)，2017年其追蹤的45個國家都會迎來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，這也是十年來首次，意味著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正在復(fù)蘇。2017年10月，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）也將2018年全球GDP預(yù)期增速上調(diào)至3.7%，較此前的預(yù)期提高0.1個百分點(diǎn)。

布倫南稱：“各國股市之中，我們認(rèn)為新興市場尤其值得關(guān)注?！彼J(rèn)為，歐洲和日本等發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)股市也可以考慮。

從國際資本流動看，投資資金一直在流向全球股市。2017年前11個月，全球股票基金合計(jì)凈流入資金1490億美元。獨(dú)立投資研究機(jī)構(gòu)CFRA的投資策略分析師林賽·貝爾稱，2016年同期股票類基金的凈流入資金僅有160億美元。

投資者對華爾街的預(yù)測應(yīng)該持保留態(tài)度。2016年，《財(cái)富》調(diào)查的約12家銀行預(yù)計(jì)，到2017年末標(biāo)普500指數(shù)將漲到2200至2500點(diǎn)。實(shí)際上，到2017年12月26日標(biāo)普500已經(jīng)接近2700點(diǎn)。還有些銀行預(yù)計(jì)，唐納德·特朗普就任總統(tǒng)后股市振幅將加大，一年來市場卻出奇地平靜。

另外，也有人對2018年美股預(yù)期沒那么樂觀。研究機(jī)構(gòu)Leuthold Group的首席投資策略分析師吉姆·保爾森向《華爾街日報(bào)》表示，預(yù)計(jì)2018年美股將回調(diào)10%到15%，因?yàn)槟壳懊拦傻狞c(diǎn)位過高。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者：Pessy

審稿：夏林

Separately, many asset managers meanwhile are looking outside the U.S. for investing opportunities. The world has lagged behind the U.S. in terms of economic recovery since the Great Recession of 2008-9.

“As we consider the investment options available in the coming year, economies outside the U.S. are far earlier in their respective business cycles, and still experiencing double-digit profit growth,” wrote J.P. Morgan’s David Lebovitz in December note. “Thus, with the first day of school just around the corner, investors would be wise to choose a curriculum that allows them to study abroad.”

For the first time in a decade, all 45 countries tracked by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are expected to show economic growth—a sign that a global recovery is underway. The International Monetary Fund also upped its outlook for 2018 world economic growth to 3.7% in October, a 0.1 percentage point increase.

“Within equities we think emerging markets are a particularly interesting place to look,” Brenan said, pointing also to Europe and Japan for developed market ideas.

The pivot toward global equities has been an ongoing trend, with international equity funds receiving $149 billion in net inflows during the first 11 months of 2017. That’s up from $16 billion a year earlier, according to Lindsay Bell, Investment Strategist at CFRA.

Investors should take predictions with a grain of salt. Last year, some 12 banks polled by Fortune said they expected the S&P 500 to end 2017 between 2,200 to 2,500. Today, it’s nearing 2,700. Some also expected greater volatility due to U.S. president Donald Trump’s actions, though markets have been surprisingly quiet this year.

Meanwhile, not everyone thinks the stock market will gain in 2018. Leuthold Group chief investment strategist Jim Paulsen told the Wall Street Journal that he expects a market correction of 10% to 15% next year, a result of already high valuations.