隨著道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)（Dow Jones Industrial Average）和標(biāo)普500指數(shù)（S&P 500）等主要股指在本周一跌掉了2018年的所有漲幅，投資者乃至白宮都開(kāi)始擔(dān)心起來(lái)，股市還會(huì)進(jìn)一步下跌嗎？

一位白宮官員周一早晨對(duì)美國(guó)全國(guó)廣播公司財(cái)經(jīng)頻道（CNBC）表示：“股市下跌時(shí)我們總是會(huì)關(guān)注”，但也許是為了緩和人們的緊張不安，他補(bǔ)充道：“但我們同樣對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)充滿信心?！?

由于勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）上周五發(fā)布了高于預(yù)期的工資數(shù)據(jù)，人們對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）加息的期望也有所提高，本周一，衡量美國(guó)股市的道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)、標(biāo)普500指數(shù)和納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)（Nasdaq）連續(xù)第二天出現(xiàn)下跌。

盡管工人們可能對(duì)于每小時(shí)增加9美分工資樂(lè)意之至，但上周五的消息卻讓華爾街忐忑不安，周一股市可能多達(dá)幾十億美元的損失則更是雪上加霜。

投資者擔(dān)心，如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展過(guò)熱，可能會(huì)在今年更加激進(jìn)地調(diào)高利率。工資提高則是相關(guān)指標(biāo)之一，它可能導(dǎo)致成本增高和通貨膨脹。勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局上周五表示，去年12月的工資提高了2.9%，達(dá)到26.74美元，漲幅超過(guò)了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè)的2.6%。盡管對(duì)于債券收益而言這是個(gè)好消息，但對(duì)股市而言卻不一定。公司可能貸款的成本可能更高，而隨著投資者轉(zhuǎn)向風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更低的債券，公司的股票也可能遭遇損失。

工業(yè)股居多的道瓊斯指數(shù)在周一收盤(pán)時(shí)下跌了1,100點(diǎn)至24,345點(diǎn)，這標(biāo)志著股指相較去年開(kāi)始正式下滑。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下跌了2.2%至2,702點(diǎn)，開(kāi)年以來(lái)的漲幅也已消耗殆盡?？萍脊蔀橹鞯募{斯達(dá)克綜合指數(shù)下跌1%至7,168點(diǎn)，堪堪維持住了2018年的正增長(zhǎng)。

根據(jù)最新可獲得的數(shù)據(jù)，從1月26日道瓊斯指數(shù)達(dá)到2018年最高點(diǎn)至上周五，股市已經(jīng)損失了3,610億美元。作為對(duì)比，石油巨頭埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil）的市值大約就是3,600億美元，而道瓊斯的總市值為6.8萬(wàn)億美元。

想要更宏觀地了解虧損的規(guī)模，還可以看看標(biāo)普500指數(shù)。道瓊斯指數(shù)包含了30家公司，而標(biāo)普500指數(shù)包含了500家公司。從1月26日至上周五，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的市值降低了9,820億美元，總額目前約為24.5萬(wàn)億美元。

這是否預(yù)示著未來(lái)將出現(xiàn)更大規(guī)模的股票拋售？

按照分析師和投資者目前的說(shuō)法，市場(chǎng)將繼續(xù)緩慢上行——即使是現(xiàn)在，我們也還沒(méi)有陷入低谷。

由邁克爾·威爾遜領(lǐng)銜的摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）股票策略師在周一的照會(huì)中評(píng)論道：“隨著市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)消化這些沖擊，我們預(yù)計(jì)短期內(nèi)股指會(huì)繼續(xù)下行，不過(guò)在投資者冷靜下來(lái)以后，股指將達(dá)到新高。然而，這需要數(shù)周時(shí)間，我們不急著低價(jià)買(mǎi)入，而是在等待更好的技術(shù)信號(hào)。”

Evercore ISI的丹尼斯·德布斯切爾表示，投資者在重回股市之前可能會(huì)選擇靜觀其變。

托斯滕·斯洛克表示，最近股票拋售的部分原因也在于投資者正轉(zhuǎn)向比股票風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更低的資產(chǎn)。

他寫(xiě)道：“把資金從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)會(huì)產(chǎn)生一些震蕩，就像市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)在的情況一樣?；旧?，我們都會(huì)看到這樣騷亂的小插曲，不過(guò)本質(zhì)上經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張將會(huì)持續(xù)。”

大家之所以對(duì)股市的走向不太擔(dān)心，是因?yàn)樽罱骷夜镜呢?cái)報(bào)都表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁。

Yardeni Research的愛(ài)德華·亞德尼寫(xiě)道：“周五的下跌之后，無(wú)論是短期內(nèi)是上揚(yáng)還是下跌，我都看好行情，因?yàn)闃I(yè)績(jī)預(yù)期仍然非常樂(lè)觀。過(guò)去七周里，行業(yè)分析師普遍預(yù)期的2018年標(biāo)普500指數(shù)每股收益提高了9美元，在2月2日這一周達(dá)到了155.26美元?！?

這不意味著所有人都認(rèn)為下跌只是短期現(xiàn)象。黑石集團(tuán)（Blackstone Group）總裁托尼·詹姆斯就評(píng)論道，股市現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)充分估值了。

在接受CNBC采訪時(shí)，這位億萬(wàn)富翁表示他預(yù)計(jì)股市今年會(huì)下跌10%至20%。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正?

With major stock market indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 erasing their 2018 gains on Monday, investors and even the White House are indeed starting to worry: Will the market fall further?

“We’re always concerned when the market loses any value,” a White House official told CNBC early Monday, adding, perhaps to allay any jitters, “But we’re also confident in the economy’s fundamentals.”

The U.S. stock market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq fell for the second day in a row Monday, due to rosier-than-expected wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday—pushing up expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes.

While workers may have embraced the news of some extra nine cents per hour, the Friday news also sent jitters up and down Wall Street—adding what is likely billions in losses to the stock market Monday.

Investors are concerned that the Fed may hike interest rates more aggressively this year if it thinks the U.S. economy is growing overheated. And higher wages, which may lead to greater spending and inflation, can be an indicator of that. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed Friday that wages had risen 2.9% to $26.74 an hour in December—up from the 2.6% economists were expecting. While that’s a boon for bond yields, it’s not always a winning combination for stocks. Companies may have to spend more to borrow funds, while their stocks may lose some of their pull as investors seek out less risky bonds.

The industrials-heavy Dow Jones index slid 1,100 points to 24,345 as of Monday’s close—putting it officially in the red for 2018. The S&P 500 shed 2.2%, falling to 2,702 points and erasing its 2018 gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, was down 1% to 7,168—still just barely hanging onto its 2018 gains.

That adds to the $361 billion in losses Dow Jones Industrial companies have already posted between the market’s 2018 high on Jan. 26 and Friday, according to the most recent available data. For comparison, oil giant Exxon Mobil commands a market capitalization of about $360 billion to $6.8 trillion.

For a greater look at the magnitude of the losses, look to the S&P 500, which tracks about 500 companies compared to the Dow’s 30. Between Jan. 26 and Friday, stocks in that index lost $982 billion in market capitalization, for a total of around $24.5 trillion.

So is this a sign that a greater selloff is in the works?

Based on what analysts and investors are saying at the moment, the markets will continue upward slower than before—even though we haven’t hit the bottom just yet.

“We expect further downside in the near term as markets continue to digest these shocks, but ultimately we will trade to new highs as cooler heads prevail,” Morgan Stanley equity strategists led by Michael Wilson commented in a Monday note. “This should take several weeks, however, and we are in no rush to buy this dip as we wait for better technical signals.”

Investors are likely to wait for any surprises before jumping back into the market, says Denis Busschere of Evercore ISI in a note.

The recent selloff, says Torsten Slok, is also partly due to investors turning to less risky assets than equities.

“The allocation of money from risky assets to risk-free assets is going to be bumpy, as seen in markets today,” he wrote. “Fundamentally, we expect such episodic bouts of turbulence, but the underlying economic expansion will continue.”

Underlying this general lack of worry about the stock market’s direction is the fact that recent earnings have been strong, per company guidance.

“Whatever might be the short-term follow-up (or -down) on Friday’s drop, I remain bullish because the outlook for earnings remains very upbeat,” wrote Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research. “Industry analysts have raised their consensus S&P 500 earnings estimate for 2018 by $9 per share over the past seven weeks to $155.26 during the week of February 2.”

That’s not to say everyone agrees that the bloodbath will be short-lived. Blackstone Group President Tony James commented that equities have reached full value at this point.

In an interview with CNBC, the billionaire said he expects markets to fall between 10 to 20% this year.