美股暴跌,哪些公司最受傷?
2月6日下午,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)(S&P 500)在引發(fā)混亂的暴跌之后強(qiáng)勢(shì)反彈,收盤(pán)時(shí)上漲了1.74%。周二的這波猛漲讓市場(chǎng)在拋盤(pán)浪潮中的整體跌幅從8.3%減少到了6.2%。然而,還有許多大型公司仍然在這次大出血中遭遇了調(diào)整級(jí)別的下跌。 我們將重點(diǎn)關(guān)注那些最大的企業(yè),即標(biāo)普500指數(shù)中市值最高的50支股票。盡管周二出現(xiàn)反彈,在這些一流公司中仍有10家公司的股票下跌超過(guò)10%——這也是“調(diào)整”級(jí)別的基準(zhǔn)線。順帶一提,周二的暴漲也幫助美國(guó)市值最高的公司蘋(píng)果(Apple)脫離了10%跌幅的俱樂(lè)部。蘋(píng)果目前的跌幅是9.4%,不過(guò)因?yàn)楣镜氖兄祵?shí)在巨大,他們目前的縮水也是最嚴(yán)重的,減少了大約900億美元。 虧損榜前三名的跌幅都超過(guò)了12%,它們分別是富國(guó)銀行(Wells Fargo)、寶潔(Procter & Gamble)和雪佛龍(Chevron)。雪佛龍是上榜的三家能源公司之一。另外兩家是??松梨冢‥xxon Mobil)和斯倫貝謝(Schlumberger)。雪佛龍可能比??松梨诘脑庥龈鼞K,因?yàn)橥顿Y者對(duì)他們的期待更高。在拋盤(pán)浪潮之前,公司的市盈率是38,比??松梨诟叱隽?0個(gè)點(diǎn)。至于斯倫貝謝,投資者之所以擔(dān)心這家全球油田設(shè)備供應(yīng)商的股票表現(xiàn),部分原因在于比起競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,他們?cè)诟呃麧?rùn)的頁(yè)巖氣市場(chǎng)存在感不強(qiáng),而該市場(chǎng)是近期銷售額增長(zhǎng)的最強(qiáng)推動(dòng)力。 富國(guó)銀行是唯一上榜的金融服務(wù)公司。公司股價(jià)出現(xiàn)了兩位數(shù)的下滑。就在2月2日的拋盤(pán)浪潮開(kāi)始之前,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)富國(guó)銀行的未來(lái)發(fā)展做出了嚴(yán)重限制,對(duì)該銀行廣受討論的濫用銷售權(quán)力的行為處以了罰款。寶潔公司也是雪上加霜,在股市下行之前,公司令人失望的第四季度財(cái)報(bào)已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致股票下跌了。 虧損榜上還有兩大科技巨頭英特爾(Intel)和德州儀器(Texas Instruments)。投資者對(duì)德州儀器有很高的期望,但是這個(gè)期望可能太高了。在拋盤(pán)大潮之前,該公司的市盈率是35(如今降低到了30)。相比之下,英特爾的市盈率原本大約是市場(chǎng)平均水平的25,如今已經(jīng)降到了22。這是否意味著25的市盈率對(duì)于成熟的大型科技公司而言太高了呢?拋盤(pán)浪潮應(yīng)該讓投資者重新仔細(xì)思考牛市的高估值了。 醫(yī)療巨頭有三家上榜,分別是默克(Merck)、強(qiáng)生(Johnson & Johnson)和艾伯維(AbbVie)。這三家公司的股價(jià)現(xiàn)在依然很貴,拋盤(pán)浪潮之前,默克和艾伯維的市盈率分別是60和40。在市場(chǎng)日益波動(dòng)的時(shí)期,制藥公司尤其容易受到影響,因?yàn)楦邇r(jià)購(gòu)買這些股票的投資者估計(jì)要花很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間來(lái)收回成本。高利率和動(dòng)蕩市場(chǎng)的前景提高了貼現(xiàn)率,抑制了投資者長(zhǎng)線投資的意愿。 值得強(qiáng)調(diào),標(biāo)普500指數(shù)里市值前50的公司中,有一些公司的表現(xiàn)遠(yuǎn)超平均水平。其中勢(shì)頭最強(qiáng)勁的是Facebook和萬(wàn)事達(dá)卡(Mastercard)。引人注目的是,亞馬遜(Amazon)在這波混亂中幾乎紋絲未動(dòng),市值減少不足1%。這三家公司都有極高的估值。盡管投資者對(duì)許多高估值公司的信心開(kāi)始動(dòng)搖,但他們證明了自己的金字招牌值得信賴。沒(méi)錯(cuò),這些公司的股價(jià)降低了,但只是在高額的基礎(chǔ)值之上降低了一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)。Facebook和亞馬遜展示的實(shí)力讓投資者仍然充滿樂(lè)觀。不過(guò)危險(xiǎn)在于,市場(chǎng)呈現(xiàn)出的數(shù)據(jù)令人畏縮,人們的如意算盤(pán)恐將落空。2月初的股市表現(xiàn)可能預(yù)示著這樣的結(jié)果。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)) 譯者:嚴(yán)匡正? |
On February 6, the S&P 500 staged a strong rebound in a tumultuous session that careened from deep mid-afternoon losses to a strong, 1.74% gain at the closing bell. Tuesday’s surge cut the market’s overall losses from the big selloff from 8.3% to 6.2%. A number of big companies, however, are still nursing correction-sized declines from the bloodletting. We’ll focus on the biggest of the big, the 50 most valuable stocks in the S&P 500. In that top tier, ten companies have suffered declines of more than 10% despite Tuesday snapback—benchmark for a “correction.” By the way, Tuesday’s tide help lift America’s most valuable enterprise, Apple, out of negative 10% club. Apple has fallen 9.4% in the rout, but because its market cap is so gargantuan, it’s also suffered by far the largest loss of value, shedding around $90 billion. Heading the loser list are three players that all fell over 12%: Wells Fargo, Procter & Gamble, and Chevron . Chevron is one of the three energy companies on the roster. The others are Exxon Mobil and Schlumberger. Chervon may have suffered more than Exxon Mobil because investors were expecting more. Its pre-selloff PE of 38 was 10 points richer than Exxon’s. As for Schlumberger, investors appear jittery about the stock, in part because the world’s supplier of oilfield equipment has less exposure to the lucrative shale market––the biggest near-term driver for sales–– than competitors. Wells Fargo is the only one name from financial services to make the list. Its shares took a double hit. Just before the selloff began on February 2, the Fed imposed severe constraints on Well’s future growth, a penalty for its well-publicized sales abuses. P&G also took a pair of blows. It already sinking from a disappointing Q4 earnings report when the the downdraft struck. The losers list features two tech stalwarts, Intel and Texas Instruments. Investors were expecting big things, maybe too big, from TI. Before the selloff, it boasted a PE of 35 (now reduced to 30). By contrast, Intel was selling at around the average market multiple of 25, a level the rout lowered to 22. Does that mean that even a 25 PE is too high for a huge, mature tech titan? The selloff should prompt investors to carefully reconsider the bull market’s rich valuations. Three healthcare stalwarts made the cut, and Merck Johnson & Johnson, and AbbVie. All were, and remain, expensive, with Merck and AbbVie carrying pre-selloff PEs of 60 and 40 respectively. In periods of rising volatility, pharma companies are often especially vulnerable because of investors are paying big prices today for therapies expected to pay off over a long horizon. The prospect of higher rates and rocky markets raise the discount rate, curbing what investors are willing to pay for cash flows that stretch far into the future. It’s worth stressing that several members of the S&P’s top 50 have fared far better than average. Among the most resilient are Facebook[/f500link] and Mastercard[/f500link]. Remarkably, Amazon has barely budged through all the turmoil, shedding less than 1%. All three boast extremely rich valuations. But while investors’ faith in lots of high-flyers is wobbling, they’re convinced that these golden names deserve the tiniest of haircuts. Sure, prices are down. But they’re down only modestly from mountainous highs. And strength of a Facebook or Amazon demonstrate, investors are still brimming with optimism. The danger is that the daunting market math will demolish wishful thinking. The early days of February may foreshadow just such an outcome. |