每年都在紐約召開(kāi)的佐恩投資會(huì)議（Sohn Investment Conference）通常是華爾街頂尖對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理和投資者介紹亞馬遜、瓦蘭特制藥（Valeant Pharmaceuticals）等一眾首選股的場(chǎng)所。上周一，一位投資者在這個(gè)有23年歷史的會(huì)議上首次推薦了一種數(shù)字化投資：比特幣。

倫敦家族辦公室Pfeffer Capital合伙人約翰·菲佛不僅押寶在比特幣上，還大膽給出了70萬(wàn)美元（約442.4萬(wàn)元人民幣）的目標(biāo)價(jià)，約為目前比特幣價(jià)格（9500美元）的75倍。

雖然菲佛沒(méi)有說(shuō)明上述預(yù)測(cè)的時(shí)間期限，但和風(fēng)投人士蒂姆·德雷珀等其他有影響力的投資者相比，他的目標(biāo)價(jià)甚至超過(guò)了這些人做出的最樂(lè)觀預(yù)期。本月早些時(shí)候，德雷珀預(yù)測(cè)說(shuō)到2022年比特幣價(jià)格有望漲至25萬(wàn)美元。

菲佛曾在私募股權(quán)公司KKR擔(dān)任合伙人，他在紐約林肯中心向眾多與會(huì)者表示：“比特幣是有史以來(lái)全球第一種切實(shí)可行的黃金替代品。因此，如果比特幣成為非主權(quán)價(jià)值儲(chǔ)藏領(lǐng)域的主導(dǎo)者，它就有可能成為新的‘黃金’，也就是新的儲(chǔ)備貨幣?！?

菲佛的思路是，首先他假設(shè)比特幣從邏輯上可以取代私人投資者目前持有的所有金條，也就是人們放在保險(xiǎn)箱中或者埋在后院里，比紙幣更可靠的儲(chǔ)值工具（在這里，金條的作用就是人們所說(shuō)的“價(jià)值儲(chǔ)藏”）。“比特幣的存儲(chǔ)和保全要容易得多。”

據(jù)菲佛介紹，目前私人所持金條的總價(jià)值約為1.6萬(wàn)億美元。假設(shè)比特幣全面取代金條時(shí)該加密貨幣的流通數(shù)量為1800萬(wàn)枚（比特幣的數(shù)量上限為2100萬(wàn)枚，目前已制造出1700萬(wàn)枚左右），則相應(yīng)的價(jià)值為每枚9萬(wàn)美元。這是菲佛最保守的估計(jì)，他認(rèn)為這種情況成為現(xiàn)實(shí)的可能性為8%。

但菲佛對(duì)比特幣有更高的期望——它對(duì)各國(guó)央行的意義最終有可能和如今的傳統(tǒng)外匯儲(chǔ)備相當(dāng)（各國(guó)政府持有歐元、日元等外幣，以便償還外債并完成其他跨境交易）。菲佛在會(huì)上說(shuō)：“可以想象，比特幣將逐步取代部分外匯儲(chǔ)備?！?

他指出，目前全世界的外匯儲(chǔ)備價(jià)值12.7萬(wàn)億美元。比特幣不太可能取代所有外匯儲(chǔ)備，而菲佛在模型中設(shè)定的情景是比特幣在外匯儲(chǔ)備中占四分之一，那么按比特幣當(dāng)前價(jià)格計(jì)算出的回報(bào)率為20倍。如果比特幣的總價(jià)值真的達(dá)到全球外匯儲(chǔ)備的水平，也就是12.7萬(wàn)億美元，那就意味著取代所有金條和外儲(chǔ)后，比特幣的單價(jià)為70萬(wàn)美元。

菲佛說(shuō)：“作為投資者，現(xiàn)在最讓我們感興趣的是比特幣或許會(huì)成為主導(dǎo)性非主權(quán)貨幣?！北M管他預(yù)計(jì)比特幣價(jià)格僅有1%的幾率真的達(dá)到70萬(wàn)美元的，但這種可能性本身就足以讓他“以風(fēng)投方式少量買入比特幣并長(zhǎng)期持有”。

他補(bǔ)充道，換句話說(shuō)，自己的策略就是“買票搭車”。

除了比特幣，菲佛這兩年還小規(guī)模投資過(guò)其他加密貨幣，但他隨后清理了自己的加密貨幣持倉(cāng)，目前只持有比特幣。菲佛說(shuō)，他意識(shí)到除比特幣外，其他許多加密貨幣不光發(fā)揮著貨幣功能，還是所謂的實(shí)用型代幣，意思是它們還用于執(zhí)行某項(xiàng)具體操作，其作用并非純粹的貨幣（比如說(shuō)，人們用和以太坊網(wǎng)絡(luò)綁定的代幣履行所謂的“智能”合約）。

但菲佛基于費(fèi)雪交易方程式（equation of exchange）假設(shè)，一個(gè)加密貨幣網(wǎng)絡(luò)的價(jià)值就等于其整體經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)除以使用中貨幣的流通速度。由于實(shí)用型代幣的交易本來(lái)就很頻繁，其價(jià)值總會(huì)面臨壓力。菲佛說(shuō)：“我覺(jué)得實(shí)際情況會(huì)證明它們將成為價(jià)值陷阱?！?

另一方面，比特幣的情況恰好相反，菲佛認(rèn)為：“有一種途徑可以擺脫這樣的價(jià)值陷阱，那就是人們想把自己的財(cái)富儲(chǔ)存在加密貨幣資產(chǎn)中。”比特幣的作用就在這里，這反過(guò)來(lái)也印證了他一開(kāi)始提出的主題，即比特幣將取代黃金。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審稿：夏林

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The annual Sohn Investment Conference in New York is usually a place where Wall Street’s best hedge fund managers and investors present their top stock picks—from Amazon to Valeant Pharmaceuticals. And for the first time in the event’s 23-year history, one of those investors used the Sohn conference stage Monday to recommend a certain digital investment: Bitcoin.

John Pfeffer, a partner at his London-based family office Pfeffer Capital, is not only betting on Bitcoin, but giving it a bold price target of $700,000—about 75 times the current Bitcoin price of nearly $9,500.

While Pfeffer did not put a time frame on his prediction, his target exceeds even optimistic forecasts from other influential investors such as venture capitalist Tim Draper, who earlier this month predicted the Bitcoin price would reach $250,000 by 2022.

“Bitcoin is the first viable candidate to replace gold the world has ever seen,” Pfeffer, a former partner at private equity firm KKR, told the crowd at the Sohn Investment Conference at New York’s Lincoln Center. “So if Bitcoin becomes the dominant non-sovereign store of value, it could be the new gold, or new reserve currency.”

Pfeffer’s math works like this: First, he assumes that Bitcoin can logically replace all of the gold bullion currently held by private investors—in other words, the gold bars that people keep in a safe-deposit box or bury in their backyard, simply as a way to park their money in something more dependable than paper. (The gold bars in this example are also what’s known as a “store of value.”) “Bitcoin is vastly easier to store and secure,” Pfeffer said.

The current value of all privately held gold bullion is about $1.6 trillion, according to Pfeffer. Assuming there will be 18 million Bitcoins in circulation by the time the cryptocurrency fully replaces gold bullion (about 17 million Bitcoins have been produced so far, out of the maximum 21 million that can exist), the implied value of a Bitcoin would then be $90,000. This is Pfeffer’s most conservative scenario, which he gives 8% odds of coming to fruition.

But Pfeffer has even higher hopes for Bitcoin—that it could eventually be to central banks what traditional foreign reserve currencies are today. (From euros to Japanese yen, governments hold foreign cash to pay down international debts and complete other cross-border transactions.) “It’s imaginable that Bitcoin displaces some form of reserves over time,” Pfeffer said at the conference.

Total foreign reserves are currently worth $12.7 trillion, he added. While it’s unlikely Bitcoin would fully replace all foreign reserve currency, Pfeffer also modeled scenarios in which Bitcoin would account for a quarter of foreign reserves, which would imply a 20x return from current prices. And if the total value of Bitcoin does rise to the equivalent of all foreign reserves, or $12.7 trillion—including both gold bullion and reserves combined—then that would mean a Bitcoin price of $700,000.

“As an investor, what interests us most at this point is that Bitcoin might become the dominant non-sovereign currency,” said Pfeffer. Although he puts just 1% odds on Bitcoin actually hitting $700,000, the possibility alone is enough for him “to make a small, venture capital-style, buy-and-hold longterm bet on,” he said.

Put another way, Pfeffer added, his strategy is: “Buy the ticket, take the ride.”

In addition to Bitcoin, Pfeffer previously dabbled with investing in other cryptocurrencies over the past two years, but he has since pared his crypto portfolio back to just Bitcoin again. He came to the realization, he said, that many other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin don’t function as simply money, but as so-called utility tokens—meaning, the coins are used to perform a specific operation, and serve as something other than a pure currency. (Tokens tied to the Ethereum network, for example, are used to execute so-called “smart” contracts).

But using the economic theory of money known as the “equation of exchange,” Pfeffer posited that a cryptocurrency network is only as valuable as its total economic activity, divided by the velocity at which the money changes hands. Because utility tokens, inherently, will be exchanged frequently, their value will constantly be under pressure, Pfeffer said: “I think they’re going to turn out to be value traps.”

Bitcoin, on the other hand, offers the opposite proposition, Pfeffer added: “There is one way out of this value trap, which is if people wanted to store their wealth in a crypto asset,” he said. That’s where Bitcoin comes in—supporting his original thesis that Bitcoin will replace gold.