在奧馬哈的伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司股東大會(huì)上，“朝圣”的投資者基本上都是奔著“撿拾”億萬(wàn)富翁沃倫·巴菲特的投資建議而去。

這位“奧馬哈先知”已將伯克希爾-哈撒韋打造成了世界上最有價(jià)值的公司之一，還在全球范圍內(nèi)發(fā)展了一大批打算學(xué)習(xí)他選股絕技的粉絲。

在上周六的股東大會(huì)上，巴菲特和他的左膀右臂兼“逗哏”查理·芒格同臺(tái)接受“朝拜”，并且圓滿回答了股東的問(wèn)題——這場(chǎng)問(wèn)答持續(xù)了幾乎六個(gè)小時(shí)。一如既往，巴菲特作答的內(nèi)容無(wú)所不包，比如他對(duì)中美潛在貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的展望，他對(duì)蘋(píng)果股票的喜愛(ài)，他的失策——沒(méi)買(mǎi)谷歌或亞馬遜股票，他和亞馬遜以及摩根大通成立的醫(yī)療保健合資公司，乃至他和特斯拉CEO埃隆·馬斯克的分歧。

而今年大會(huì)的基調(diào)之一是：87歲的巴菲特“看好”美國(guó)的未來(lái)以及伯克希爾-哈撒韋的前景。這位先知在本次股東大會(huì)上做出了諸多論斷，以下是我們的精彩節(jié)選。

關(guān)于蘋(píng)果公司

“我們賭蘋(píng)果會(huì)推出類似iPhone的成功產(chǎn)品，而且我發(fā)現(xiàn)新產(chǎn)品具有一些不尋常的特征……之前我不買(mǎi)蘋(píng)果，因?yàn)橹皇强萍脊?，后?lái)我出手是因?yàn)槲掖_定了兩點(diǎn)，一方面是他們很擅長(zhǎng)配置資金，更重要的蘋(píng)果打造出獨(dú)特的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，而且系統(tǒng)可以長(zhǎng)期維持。我也了解了蘋(píng)果面臨的威脅以及其他一些問(wèn)題。我并不用真去把iPhone拆開(kāi)研究，弄清楚里面有哪些零件。更重要的是理解消費(fèi)行為本質(zhì)，其中蘊(yùn)含的一些更普適的規(guī)律給我很多啟發(fā)。”

關(guān)于世界的未來(lái)

“我看好美國(guó)的未來(lái)，也看好中國(guó)的未來(lái)，我對(duì)世界上其他地方的看法也非常樂(lè)觀。今后10、20、50年，人們會(huì)生活的比現(xiàn)在還好。除了大規(guī)模殺傷性武器，我覺(jué)得沒(méi)什么能阻止這樣的局面?！?

關(guān)于男女平等

“我確實(shí)很看好，看好人類的未來(lái)，當(dāng)然也看好我們國(guó)家的未來(lái)，如果看看美國(guó)憲法第十九修正案[賦予女性投票權(quán)]出臺(tái)前的情況，再看看出臺(tái)后很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間，乃至今天的情況，就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)巨大的進(jìn)步。我確實(shí)覺(jué)得對(duì)未來(lái)更樂(lè)觀了，因?yàn)槲矣X(jué)得人才選拔方面會(huì)更加基于個(gè)人品質(zhì)，而不是基于性別、種族或遺產(chǎn)。在我看來(lái)，如果一個(gè)社會(huì)里公司都由長(zhǎng)子之類接掌，進(jìn)步會(huì)遠(yuǎn)小于基于品質(zhì)選拔人才的社會(huì)?！?

關(guān)于埃隆·馬斯克和護(hù)城河

“你當(dāng)然應(yīng)該設(shè)法讓自己的護(hù)城河變得更好，并且隨時(shí)保護(hù)自己的護(hù)城河。埃隆在某些領(lǐng)域也許可以攪個(gè)天翻地覆。我覺(jué)得他并不打算帶我們?cè)谔枪袠I(yè)大干一番。而且其他一些行當(dāng)并不會(huì)那么容易。大家可以看看童裝品牌Garanimals……科技不會(huì)帶走Garanimals的生意——也許其他什么東西能抓住孩子的想象力或者別的什么。但我們身邊就有一些相當(dāng)厲害的護(hù)城河。”

關(guān)于加密貨幣

“人們買(mǎi)股票就是希望第二天早上起來(lái)發(fā)現(xiàn)漲了，要持續(xù)漲就得買(mǎi)的人多賣(mài)的人少。這一點(diǎn)能實(shí)現(xiàn)，而且可以持續(xù)，有時(shí)可以維持相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間，甚至積攢到巨大規(guī)模，但最后結(jié)果都很慘。加密貨幣的結(jié)果會(huì)很慘。另外，從資產(chǎn)創(chuàng)造價(jià)值的角度來(lái)說(shuō)，加密貨幣什么也沒(méi)創(chuàng)造，所以會(huì)有很多騙子什么的混跡其間，騙子們想方設(shè)法開(kāi)設(shè)各種交易所。一些資質(zhì)平庸之輩從中看到了剪羊毛的機(jī)會(huì)，被坑的則是看到鄰居買(mǎi)了自己不懂的東西發(fā)財(cái)了，也想跟著買(mǎi)的人。最后都會(huì)很慘。”

關(guān)于富國(guó)銀行

“富國(guó)銀行證明了激勵(lì)的功效。但問(wèn)題是他們給的激勵(lì)動(dòng)機(jī)不對(duì)。這就壞了……大公司出問(wèn)題并不是特殊情況。實(shí)際上，所有大銀行都曾有過(guò)這樣或那樣的麻煩。我覺(jué)得，作為一家公司，無(wú)論從投資角度還是從道德角度來(lái)看，今后富國(guó)銀行沒(méi)有理由會(huì)在任何方面都比自己的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)差。。他們犯了個(gè)非常大的錯(cuò)誤……但我喜歡對(duì)它投資，也喜歡[CEO] 蒂姆·斯隆這樣的經(jīng)理人。而且他正在糾正別人犯下的錯(cuò)誤?！?

關(guān)于成為一名偉大的投資者

“我們的業(yè)務(wù)并不復(fù)雜。它需要自律，但并不需要超高的智商或者任何類似的東西。有幾條極為重要的基本原則。另外你確實(shí)得懂會(huì)計(jì)，它能幫你出門(mén)去跟客戶交流，并且在許多方面像客戶那樣思考，但所有這些都不需要很高的學(xué)歷?！?

關(guān)于伯克希爾-哈撒韋為什么不就槍支問(wèn)題表態(tài)

“說(shuō)到我的政治觀點(diǎn)，我覺(jué)得在我做那些事時(shí)絕不會(huì)盲目相信什么東西。2016年我籌了很多錢(qián)，是為希拉里[·克林頓]籌的，而且還相當(dāng)直白地表了態(tài)。但這樣做時(shí)，我不覺(jué)得自己是為了伯克希爾做這些，我是作為一個(gè)公民個(gè)體來(lái)發(fā)言，我覺(jué)得我無(wú)權(quán)為伯克希爾說(shuō)什么……而且我覺(jué)得我們對(duì)Geico[保險(xiǎn)]政策也不應(yīng)該有什么疑問(wèn)，‘你是全國(guó)步槍協(xié)會(huì)的嗎？’如果是，對(duì)我們來(lái)說(shuō)你就不是那么好的人了。我不相信自己會(huì)把政治觀點(diǎn)施加到我們的經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)中。如果你想問(wèn)哪些公司是干凈的，哪些不干凈，我覺(jué)得判斷難度非常大?！?

關(guān)于網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

“預(yù)測(cè)加州發(fā)生地震或者佛羅里達(dá)或其他什么地方出現(xiàn)三、四場(chǎng)颶風(fēng)的可能性，我們有相當(dāng)好的想法。但我們不知道自己在網(wǎng)絡(luò)方面做了什么。如果現(xiàn)在有什么人告訴你他們覺(jué)得自己非常清楚地知道未來(lái)是什么樣，或者最糟糕的情況會(huì)是什么樣，我覺(jué)得那是他們想多了。我之所以說(shuō)每年發(fā)生價(jià)值4000億美元事件的可能性大概是2%，這就是原因之一。網(wǎng)絡(luò)是個(gè)未知領(lǐng)域，而且只會(huì)越來(lái)越糟，而不是變好?！?

關(guān)于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)利率

“我們知道當(dāng)前利率下或利率接近當(dāng)前水平時(shí)長(zhǎng)期債券在我們看來(lái)是一項(xiàng)糟糕投資。因此，我們所有等待投放的資金基本上都在國(guó)債里，而且我覺(jué)得是平均期限最多四個(gè)月或者差不多那么長(zhǎng)的國(guó)債?！?

關(guān)于對(duì)中國(guó)投資

“到8月份我就88歲了，那是今年的第八個(gè)月，而今年又是以八結(jié)尾的一年。我們都知道，八在中國(guó)是個(gè)非常幸運(yùn)的數(shù)字，現(xiàn)在有這么多八，所以如果你在中國(guó)為我發(fā)現(xiàn)了什么東西，我們就應(yīng)該去收購(gòu)?！?

關(guān)于美國(guó)的政治

“在我這一生中，有好幾次人們都覺(jué)得美國(guó)比以往任何時(shí)候都要分裂，我也親見(jiàn)過(guò)另一黨派當(dāng)政讓我認(rèn)識(shí)和欣賞的人認(rèn)為再也不會(huì)有大選了……如果從一開(kāi)始你就會(huì)告訴我會(huì)發(fā)生古巴導(dǎo)彈危機(jī)，會(huì)有核武器，會(huì)出現(xiàn)金融恐慌，而且20世紀(jì)60年代末這個(gè)分裂的國(guó)家會(huì)有多次衰退和街頭暴力事件，那你就會(huì)說(shuō)，‘你究竟為什么還要買(mǎi)股票呢？’美國(guó)經(jīng)歷了這一切，情況時(shí)好時(shí)壞，但美國(guó)確實(shí)在向前邁進(jìn)?！?

“在座每一位的生活水平在很多方面都高于老約翰·洛克菲勒，我年輕時(shí)他可是世界上最富有的人。而且和他可能過(guò)上的生活相比，我們都過(guò)的比他好。所以說(shuō)，這是一個(gè)非常、非常了不起的國(guó)家，而且我們已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)了一些非常特殊的東西。我很愿意出生在今天的美國(guó)?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

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The investors who make the pilgrimage to Omaha for Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting come largely to glean stock investing advice from billionaire Warren Buffett.

The so-called Oracle of Omaha has built Berkshire Hathaway into one of the most valuable companies in the world, and developed a global following of investors who seek to emulate Buffett’s stock-picking prowess.

At the Berkshire Hathaway meeting Saturday, Buffett held court on stage—alongside his right-hand man and jokester Charlie Munger—and fielded questions from shareholders for almost six hours straight. As is typical, Buffett’s responses ran the gamut, covering his outlook on a potential trade war with China, his love of Apple stock, his mistake not buying Google or Amazon stock, his health care venture with Amazon and JPMorgan Chase, and even his differences with Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

One underlying theme: Buffett, at age 87, is “bullish”—on the future of America, as well as the future of his company Berkshire Hathaway . For more of the Oracle’s pronouncements, here is a selection of the best Buffett quotes from the Berkshire Hathaway meeting 2018.

On Apple

“We’re betting on the success of Apple products like the iPhone, and I see characteristics in that that make me think it’s extraordinary….And I didn’t go into Apple because it was a tech stock in the least. I went into Apple because I came to certain conclusions about both the intelligence with the capital they deploy but more important the value of an ecosystem and how permanent that ecosystem could be. And what the threats were to it and a whole bunch of things. And I don’t think that required me to take apart an iPhone or something and figure out what all the components were. It’s much more the nature of consumer behavior, and some things strike me as having a lot more permanence than others.”

On the world’s future

“I’m bullish on the future of the United States, but I’m bullish on the future of China, and to a significant extent the rest of the world. People are going to be living better 10, 20, 50 years from now, and I don’t think that’s something that can be stopped, absent weapons of mass destruction.”

On gender equality

“It does make me bullish. It makes me bullish on the human race. But certainly our country, because if you look at what happened before the 19th Amendment [granting women the right to vote] and then after the 19th Amendment for a long time and continuing to this day, there’s been significant improvement. And I do feel more optimistic about the future, because I think there will be more selection by merit rather than by gender, or by race or by inheritance. And I think that if you had a system where all businesses got passed on to the eldest son or something, I think that society would make a lot less progress than one that’s merit based.”

On Elon Musk and moats

“Certainly you should be working on improving your own moat and defending your own moat all the time. And Elon may turn things upside down in some areas. I don’t think he’d want to take us on in candy. And we’ve got some other businesses that wouldn’t be so easy. You can look at something like Garanimals….It won’t be technology that takes away the business in Garanimals—maybe something else that catches the young kids’ fantasy or something. But there are some pretty good moats around.”

On cryptocurrency

“When you buy something because you’re hoping tomorrow morning you’re going to wake up and the price will be higher, you need more people coming into it than are leaving. And you can get that and it will feed on itself for a while, and sometimes for a long while, and sometimes to extraordinary numbers, but they come to bad endings, and cryptocurrencies will come to bad endings. And along with the fact that there’s nothing being produced in the way of value from the asset, you also have the problem that it draws in a lot of charlatans and that sort of thing, who are trying to create various sorts of exchanges or whatever it may be. It’s something where people who are of less-than-stellar character see an opportunity to clip people who were trying to get rich because their neighbor’s getting rich buying this stuff neither one of them understands. It will come to a bad ending.”

On Wells Fargo

“Wells Fargo is a company that proved the efficacy of incentives. And it’s just that they had the wrong incentives. And that was bad….The fact that you are going to have problems at some large institution is not unique. In fact all the big banks have had troubles at some point or another. And I see no reason why Wells Fargo as a company from both an investment standpoint and a moral standpoint going forward is in any way inferior to the other banks with which it competes. They made a very big mistake….But I like it as an investment. I like [CEO] Tim Sloan as a manager. And he is correcting mistakes made by other people.”

On becoming a great investor

“What we do is not a complicated business. It’s got to be a disciplined business, but it does not require a super high IQ or anything of the sort. And there are a few fundamentals that are incredibly important. And you do have to understand accounting, and it helps to get out and talk to consumers and start thinking like a consumer in many ways and all of that, but it just doesn’t require advanced learning.”

On why Berkshire Hathaway won’t take a stance on guns

“My political views, I don’t think I put them in a blind trust at all when I take the job. In 2016, I raised a lot of money, in my case raised it for Hillary [Clinton] and spoke out in ways that were quite frank. But when I do that, I don’t think I do that for Berkshire, I’m speaking as a private citizen, and I don’t think I have any business speaking for Berkshire….And I don’t think that we should have a question on the Geico [insurance] policy, ‘Are you an NRA member?’ And if you are you’re not good enough for us. I do not believe in imposing my political opinions on the activities of our business. And if you get to what companies are pure and which ones aren’t pure, I think it’s very difficult to make that call.”

On cybersecurity risks

“We have a pretty good idea of the probabilities of a quake in California or the probability of a 3 or 4 hurricane hitting Florida or wherever it may be. But we don’t know what we’re doing in cyber. I think anybody who tells you now that they think they know in some actuarial way what the general experience is likely to be in the future or what the worst case would be, is getting ahead of themselves, and that’s one of the reasons I say a $400 billion event has a roughly 2% probability per year of happening. Cyber is unchartered territory and it’s going to get worse not better.”

On Federal Reserve interest rates

“The one thing we know is we think long-term bonds are a terrible investment at current rates or anything close to current rates. So basically all of our money that is waiting to be placed is in Treasury bills that I think have an average maturity of four months, or something like that, at most.”

On investing in China

“In August I will be 88, and that will be the eighth month of the year, and it’s a year that ends with an 8, and as you and I both know 8 is a very lucky number in China, so if you find anything over there for me, this is the time we should be acquiring something—all those eights.”

On politics in the United States

“Multiple times in my life people have felt the country was more divided than ever, and I’ve gone through periods where people I knew and admired thought that because the other party was in power that there would never be another election….If you’d told me at the start you’d have a Cuban missile crisis, and you’d have nuclear weapons and you’d have a financial panic and you’d have many recessions and war in the streets in the late ’60s from a divided country, you’d say, ‘Why the hell are you buying stocks?’ And through it all, America—in fits and starts, but America really moves ahead.

“Everybody in this room essentially is living better in multiple ways than John D. Rockefeller senior was, who was the richest person in the world during my early years. And we’re all living better than he could live. So this is a remarkable, remarkable country and we’ve found something very special. And I would love to be a baby being born in the United States today.”