今年，新興市場(chǎng)股票的無(wú)情雪崩讓它們變得相對(duì)便宜，至少?gòu)念A(yù)期市盈率來(lái)看，達(dá)到了最近兩年多來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。

明晟新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)（MSCI Emerging Markets Index）已經(jīng)跌到了歷史平均值11.4以下，如今約為11.2，是2016年初以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。今年早些時(shí)候，它曾升至13.3，隨后美元上漲沖擊了新興市場(chǎng)的股市。

發(fā)展中國(guó)家的股市在2017年表現(xiàn)搶眼，猛漲35%，今年卻下跌了近9%。美國(guó)上調(diào)利率、貿(mào)易緊張和發(fā)展前景每況愈下都抑制了投資者對(duì)于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)的興趣。日益嚴(yán)峻的背景下，分析師也開(kāi)始下調(diào)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)的預(yù)期值。原本按照預(yù)測(cè)，企業(yè)利潤(rùn)將會(huì)延續(xù)過(guò)去幾年的漲勢(shì)，在今年進(jìn)一步提高。從今年4月開(kāi)始，明晟參考跟蹤指數(shù)的預(yù)計(jì)每股收益就在不斷下滑。

瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）亞太區(qū)的首席投資官約翰·伍茲表示，到今年9月，股價(jià)可能還會(huì)更低。他在接受Bloomberg Radio采訪時(shí)稱(chēng)：“我確實(shí)認(rèn)為估值看起來(lái)很有誘惑力。在夏天的這幾個(gè)月里，流動(dòng)性依然不足，股市還可能出現(xiàn)短期的繼續(xù)下行?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正?

This year’s unrelenting slide in emerging-market stocks makes them relatively cheap, at least judging by a price-to-estimated-earnings ratio that’s now hovering at the lowest in more than two years.

The ratio for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has fallen below its historical average of 11.4 and has now reached about 11.2, the lowest levels since early 2016. It rose to 13.3 earlier this year before a rising dollar sideswiped emerging equities.

Developing-nation stocks slid almost 9 percent this year after a stellar 35 percent rally in 2017. Rising U.S. rates, trade tension and worsening growth outlooks have all dampened investors’ appetite for riskier assets. The more challenging backdrop also led analysts to start reducing forecasts for corporate profits, which had been expected to underscore a rally this year after rising in recent years. Estimated per-share earnings for the MSCI benchmark have been falling since April.

Credit Suisse’s Asia-Pacific chief investment officer, John Woods, says stocks may get even cheaper through September. “I do think valuations are looking compelling” in emerging markets, he said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “There’s some short-term downside likely over the illiquid summer months.”