一年前，《財(cái)富》雜志投資團(tuán)隊(duì)選出了一個(gè)“全科技股投資組合”。我們的主題是無(wú)論屬于哪個(gè)行業(yè)，已經(jīng)證明最善于利用科技的公司將為投資者帶來(lái)最好的業(yè)績(jī)。

這一投資組合在市場(chǎng)上表現(xiàn)如何呢？到目前為止情況良好——在過(guò)去12個(gè)月市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)異常波動(dòng)的情況下，我們的全球投資組合（31只股票中有8只不是美股）實(shí)現(xiàn)的回報(bào)率為5.2%，輕松擊敗MSCI世界指數(shù)，只比標(biāo)普500指數(shù)6.6%的回報(bào)率低一點(diǎn)兒。如果剔除其中的5只中國(guó)股票，其回報(bào)率將高達(dá)11.5%，當(dāng)然我們不會(huì)這樣做。以下我們將對(duì)這個(gè)組合的表現(xiàn)進(jìn)行總結(jié)。

A year ago, the Fortune investment team picked an “All-Tech Portfolio.” Our thesis was that the companies that proved best at leveraging technology—no matter their industry—would deliver the best results for ?investors.

How did that thesis play out in the markets? So far, so good: During an unusually volatile 12 months, our global portfolio (eight of 31 stocks were non-U.S.) returned 5.2%. That handily beat the MSCI World stock index, and fell just shy of the S&P 500’s 6.6% return. And if you exclude our five Chinese stocks—which, of course, we won’t—we delivered a hefty 11.5% return. Here’s a roundup of what did and didn’t work.

金融科技股呈上升趨勢(shì)：我們的投資組合中表現(xiàn)最好的是金融股，信用卡巨頭萬(wàn)事達(dá)和德國(guó)支付處理公司W(wǎng)irecard這一年的表現(xiàn)都很強(qiáng)勁。二者在打造電子商務(wù)工具和升級(jí)數(shù)字金融基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面都是領(lǐng)跑者，投資者也注意到了這一點(diǎn)。

醫(yī)療股回歸：外界預(yù)計(jì)Sage Therapeutics的產(chǎn)后抑郁癥治療藥物將獲得美國(guó)食品和藥物管理局的批準(zhǔn)，推動(dòng)該公司的股價(jià)上升。同時(shí)，Intuitive Surgical繼續(xù)借助機(jī)器人在市場(chǎng)上高歌猛進(jìn)。該公司的達(dá)芬奇外科手術(shù)機(jī)器人有助于縮短術(shù)后康復(fù)時(shí)間并降低成本，受到醫(yī)院方面熱捧。

科技股暴跌：我們沒(méi)有預(yù)見(jiàn)到Facebook會(huì)陷入數(shù)據(jù)隱私漩渦，我們將其納入投資組合以來(lái)，F(xiàn)acebook的股價(jià)已下跌15%（但現(xiàn)在我們認(rèn)為又可以買(mǎi)進(jìn)它了）。中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)可能怎樣干擾科技供應(yīng)鏈的擔(dān)憂影響到了整個(gè)芯片制造業(yè)，包括我們推薦的兩只股票——應(yīng)用材料和德國(guó)公司英飛凌。

說(shuō)說(shuō)中國(guó)：今年，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)擔(dān)憂加上GDP增速放緩拉低了大多數(shù)中國(guó)股票（見(jiàn)上圖），我們挑選的5只中國(guó)股票都至少下跌了13%，其中表現(xiàn)最慘淡的是手機(jī)觸覺(jué)反饋器件制造商瑞聲科技。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文的另一版本刊登在2018年12月1日出版的《財(cái)富》雜志，是報(bào)道《2019投資者指南》的一部分。

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Fintech on the Rise: Our best-performing picks were financial stocks, where credit card giant Mastercard and German payment processor Wirecard had monster years. Both are leaders in building e-commerce tools and upgrading digital financial infrastructures, and investors took notice.

Healthy Returns: Anticipation of FDA approval of its postpartum depression drug lifted the shares of Sage Therapeutics. Meanwhile, Intuitive Surgical continued to ride robots to big market gains. Its da Vinci Surgical System can help reduce postoperative recovery times and slash costs, making it catnip for hospital customers.

Turmoil in Tech: We didn’t foresee the data-privacy face-plant at Facebook, whose shares are down 15% since we picked them (but which we now see as a buy again). Fears about how a U.S.-China trade war might disrupt the tech supply chain hurt chipmakers in general, including two that we recommended, Applied Materials and Germany’s Infineon.

Speaking of China: Those trade fears, along with a slowdown in GDP growth, dragged down most Chinese stocks this year (see the chart in this story), and each of our five China picks lost at least 13%. The hardest-hit: AAC Technologies, which makes “haptics” that create clicking and vibrating sensations in mobile phones.

A version of this article appears in the December 1, 2018 issue of Fortune, as part of the “2019 Investor’s Guide.”