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美股不行了,新興市場明年會漲到你懷疑人生

美股不行了,新興市場明年會漲到你懷疑人生

Shawn Tully 2018-12-08
發(fā)展中國家的股票市場有波動,但股價便宜。一些因素預(yù)示著曾經(jīng)低谷的新興市場正在強勢回歸。

投資圈的意見領(lǐng)袖們共同認(rèn)為,出現(xiàn)瘋狂行情的時代已經(jīng)到來。五年來,一群大佬們,包括價值投資派的頭面人物如杰里米·格蘭瑟姆、馬克·莫比斯、羅伯特·阿諾特不斷發(fā)聲,稱新興市場的企業(yè)股票提供了世界上最罕有的誘惑組合:相較于美國企業(yè)股價,它們的價格大大低于價值,再加上貨幣價格便宜,而且在不斷增長的年輕中產(chǎn)勞動者和消費者人口的驅(qū)動下,經(jīng)濟增長后勁十足——所有這些因素預(yù)示著曾經(jīng)低谷的新興市場正在強勢回歸。

兩年前,大佬們的預(yù)言成真。新興市場——共約25個國家,具有人均收入低但持續(xù)增長、快速工業(yè)化、貨幣匯率時高時低的特點——的估值真的起飛了。2016年1月底之后的24個月內(nèi),作為基準(zhǔn)的MSCI新興市場指數(shù)上漲了85%,超過標(biāo)普500指數(shù)31個百分點。盡管增速巨大,新興市場看來仍然潛力無窮。新興市場不僅每美元股價收益遠(yuǎn)高于發(fā)達(dá)國家,還得到了它們一直缺乏的東西并從中受益——直線上升的樂觀情緒和強勁的發(fā)展勢頭。

但這種復(fù)興突然垮掉了。在今年1月26日達(dá)到頂峰后,MSCI指數(shù)已下跌22%,是標(biāo)普500跌幅的7倍,下跌原因是各種負(fù)面消息,比如中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的陰霾、土耳其和阿根廷的債務(wù)危機。但對于四方尋找低價買入機會的投資者來說,下跌是一種饋贈。這次下探使發(fā)展中國家和發(fā)達(dá)國家間的股市估值差距幾乎回到了歷史最高水平,使得一向精于投機的指數(shù)看上去更有誘惑力了。為共同基金和交易所交易基金提供指數(shù)設(shè)計和管理服務(wù)的Research Affiliates公司的負(fù)責(zé)人阿諾特告訴《財富》雜志:“新興市場出現(xiàn)了十年一遇的買入機會?!辟Y產(chǎn)管理巨頭GMO的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人格蘭瑟姆在一封給客戶的信中說,他把一半的家族退休基金放到這里面了。新興市場投資的先驅(qū)者莫比斯今年早些時候剛從富蘭克林鄧普頓基金退休,他正在籌集超過5億美元,準(zhǔn)備從他所稱的,因最近新興市場的波動而產(chǎn)生的“現(xiàn)象級機會”中謀求收益。

新興市場提供了一種經(jīng)典的高風(fēng)險、高回報的投資機會。按國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值衡量,符合新興市場標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的國家代表了世界經(jīng)濟的四成產(chǎn)出,但在全球股市價值上只占12%。高增長潛力與這些國家快速地從高度依賴農(nóng)業(yè)和原材料出口,轉(zhuǎn)型到成品生產(chǎn)和服務(wù)有關(guān)。話雖如此,高增長預(yù)期也伴隨著更大的波動性,尤其是因政治、貨幣和其他風(fēng)險帶來的波動。這解釋了估值與GDP為何不符,同時這也是資本對新興市場的投資策略總是趨避不定的原因。

所以,盡管堅持新興市場投資策略的專家們相信這是大好的買入機會,對普通市民和持懷疑態(tài)度的人來說,新興市場投資感覺像個陷阱。到底孰對孰錯?

出于審慎的原則,讓我們從可預(yù)料的那些風(fēng)險開始談起。從中也可以了解到今年出現(xiàn)大拋售的原因,以及為何說對中國、墨西哥和印度等國家下注的投資人,事實上開啟了一段有獲利前景、同時無疑又跌宕起伏的旅程。導(dǎo)致今年新興市場股市下跌的兩個主要原因:一是美聯(lián)儲調(diào)高利率的舉措帶來的振動波,二是特朗普政府引發(fā)的全球貿(mào)易緊張局面。這些因素也觸發(fā)了新興市場增長率下降。

隨之而來的是人們擔(dān)心類似1997年亞洲債務(wù)危機的崩盤事件重演。如果公司有巨量的美元負(fù)債,而投資者對這些國家的政府或主要企業(yè)的償付利息能力失去信心,那么資金危機就爆發(fā)了。貸方拒絕就債務(wù)提供再融資,導(dǎo)致一波企業(yè)的倒閉潮。20世紀(jì)90年代末的情況就是如此。GMO資管公司的約翰·桑代克說,“人們閱讀新聞頭條會發(fā)現(xiàn)一些國家有嚴(yán)重的貨幣問題,聯(lián)想到20年前的金融災(zāi)難,他們確實會害怕。”

投資者的焦慮是可以理解的,這樣的資金危機在阿根廷和土耳其已經(jīng)上演。美聯(lián)儲利率的高企引發(fā)了美元價值相較于發(fā)展中國家貨幣的飆升。許多新興市場國家的資本市場并不完善,所以這些國家的政府和公司會舉借外債,通常是美元。而由于美元的增值,他們被迫支付更多的本國貨幣——比如印尼盾或者阿根廷比索——來償還其美元標(biāo)值的借款利息。中央銀行于是提高本國利率,以防止本國貨幣貶值加劇,這一舉措又會延緩其經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,進(jìn)一步妨礙公司經(jīng)營和稅收收入,而政府卻需要這些收入來支付給外國借款人。自2017年年底開始,墨西哥、韓國、俄羅斯、印尼和土耳其都已經(jīng)提高利率,土耳其的利率在今年從8%提高到24%。這種惡性循環(huán)會導(dǎo)致政府信用的下降,所以當(dāng)其債務(wù)的主要部分到期時,海外的銀行會要求兩位數(shù)的利率才會為其貸款提供再融資??赡艿慕Y(jié)果是:20年前的金融違約和貨幣貶值再度上演。

另一件頭疼事是股市的波動。21世紀(jì)初,新興市場股價隨著全球大宗商品價格上漲而蒸蒸日上,因為許多股份落戶在資源豐富和凈出口的國家。但之后,昂貴的貨幣價格和石油等原材料價格的下跌,把新興市場送入了長達(dá)五年的熊市。從2011年年初到2016年年初,以美元計價的新興市場股價下跌了40%。對于美國投資人來說,回報包括兩種變量:以當(dāng)?shù)刎泿庞嬎愕墓蓛r起伏軌跡,以及以美元匯率衡量的中國人民幣或巴西雷亞爾的實際購買量。匯率的下跌導(dǎo)致了五年的經(jīng)濟下滑,而貨幣價格的反轉(zhuǎn)又助燃了2016年年初的85%的暴漲,又一輪的貨幣下跌對于股價從1月高點下跌超20%,占了大概三分之一的因素。

For a chorus of the leading voices in investing, it was the monster rally whose time had come. For about five years, a group of sages, including value-investing boldface names Jeremy Grantham, Mark Mobius, and Rob Arnott, kept pronouncing that shares of companies in emerging markets offered the world’s rarest blend of attractions: deep-discount prices compared with U.S. equities, cheap currencies, and the prospect of robust growth driven by a burgeoning population of youthful middle-class workers and consumers—all factors that long promised a powerful comeback in the beaten-down sector.

Two years ago, their prophecies came true. Valuations in emerging markets—a group of some 25 countries defined by low but growing per capita incomes, rapid industrialization, and zigzagging currencies—took flight. In the 24 months beginning in late January 2016, shares in the benchmark MSCI emerging markets index surged 85%, beating the S&P 500 by 31 percentage points. Despite the sprint, emerging markets looked as if they had plenty of room to run. Not only did they still boast a lot more earnings per dollars paid for equities in the developed world, they also now benefited from what they had long lacked: surging optimism and powerful momentum.

Then the revival suddenly collapsed. After peaking on Jan. 26, the MSCI dropped 22%, seven times the fall in the S&P 500, crushed by negative news about a looming U.S. trade war with China and debt crises in Turkey and Argentina. But for investors rummaging for bargains, the drop is a gift. It has sent the gap in valuations between stocks in developed and developing countries back to near-record levels, making the always-speculative index particularly attractive. As Arnott, chief of Research Affiliates, a firm that designs and manages indexes for mutual funds and ETFs, told Fortune: “Emerging markets are the buy of the decade.” In a letter to clients, Grantham, cofounder of asset-management giant GMO, said he was putting half his family’s retirement funds into the sector. As for Mobius, a pioneer of emerging-markets investing who retired earlier in the year from Franklin Templeton Investments, he’s raising more than $500 million to take advantage of what he calls the “phenomenal opportunity” caused by the recent turmoil in the sector.

Emerging markets offer a classic high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity. The countries that fit the description represent 40% of the world’s economic output as measured by gross domestic product but just 12% of global stock market value. The potential for high growth is associated with countries moving rapidly from heavy dependence on agricultural and raw-materials exports into finished goods manufacturing and services. That said, higher growth prospects come with greater volatility, especially owing to high political, currency, and other risks. This explains the valuation/GDP mismatch, and it’s also why emerging-markets investment strategies fall in and out of favor so frequently.

So while experts pursuing emerging-?markets investment strategies insist they pre?sent a buying opportunity, to commonsense civilians and other skeptics, they look and feel like a trap. Who’s right?

For the sake of prudence, let’s start with the considerable risks. These involve understanding this year’s big selloff and acknowledging that by betting on the likes of China, Mexico, and India, investors are embarking on a potentially lucrative but almost certainly bumpy ride. Two principal factors triggered this year’s drop: shock waves from moves by the Federal Reserve Bank that raised interest rates in the U.S. and the rise in global trade tensions stoked by the Trump administration. Those factors, in turn, triggered a slowdown in emerging-market growth rates.

What ensued was fear of a meltdown that could mirror the Asian debt crisis of 1997. A funding crisis occurs when companies borrow heavily in dollars, and investors lose confidence in the ability of national governments or leading corporations to cover the interest payments. The lenders then refuse to refinance the debt, leading to a wave of bankruptcies. That’s what happened in the late 1990s. “People read these headlines about countries with big currency problems, and given the disaster of 20 years ago, they get really scared,” says GMO’s John Thorndike.

Investors can be forgiven their concern, considering that funding crises have already hit Argentina and Turkey. The Fed’s rate hikes caused the U.S. dollar to spike relative to currencies in the developing world. Many of those countries have underdeveloped capital markets, so their governments and companies borrow from abroad, frequently in dollars. As the greenback appreciates, they’re forced to pay a lot more in Indonesian rupiah or Argentine pesos, for example, to meet their dollar-denominated interest payments. Central banks then lift their own rates to prevent their currencies from sliding even more, a move that slows their economies, further curbing the business and tax revenues needed to repay foreign lenders. Since late 2017, Mexico, South Korea, Russia, Indonesia, and Turkey have all raised rates, with Turkey going this year from 8% to 24%. That vicious circle may cause a downgrade in their credit, so as principal payments on their debt come due, overseas banks demand double-digit rates to refinance their loans. The possible upshot: a replay of the defaults and devaluations of 20 years ago.

The other peril is volatility. Emerging-?market equities flourished in the run-up of global commodities prices for most of the 2000s as many involve resource-rich countries and net exporters. But then pricey currencies and falling prices for oil and other raw materials sent the sector into a five-year bear market. From early 2011 to the start of 2016, equities tumbled 40%, measured in dollars. For U.S. investors, returns comprise two moving parts: the trajectory of stock prices in local currencies and the exchange rate measuring the dollars the Chinese yuan or Brazilian real buys. A drop in exchange rates helped fuel the half-decade decline, a reversal in their currencies’ fortunes fueled the 85% explosion starting in 2016, and another currency drop accounted for around one-third of the 20%-plus market decline from the heights in January.

***

新興市場看多者對市場風(fēng)險的評估被極度夸大了。要讓市場產(chǎn)生災(zāi)難性的螺旋上升局面,一個國家必須面對三種不利因素:巨額外債(通常是美元)、外匯儲備的欠缺和貿(mào)易赤字。事實上,只有三個國家同時面對這三種困擾:阿根廷、土耳其和印尼。據(jù)Research Affiliates的一份分析,這三個國家都有著巨額美元外債,阿根廷和土耳其正面臨著巨大的危機。今年阿根廷從國際貨幣基金組織獲得500億美元的救助,避免了阿根廷比索的崩潰,該國的中央銀行將貸款利率調(diào)到了65%。土耳其的經(jīng)濟并沒有出現(xiàn)自由落體式下跌,但它面臨著高通貨膨脹和巨額支付赤字。相對強勁的經(jīng)濟增長使得印尼能穩(wěn)定其印尼盾,并將利率錨在5.75%。

盡管危險程度不及上述三國,但巴西和南非也令人擔(dān)憂。它們有著中等規(guī)模的美元外債,以及迫使他們借美元外債的貿(mào)易赤字問題。“他們都亮黃燈了,”Research Affiliates的首席投資官克里斯·布萊特曼說?!暗鼈兺瑫r具有大量的外匯儲備。巴西終于從極度蕭條中復(fù)蘇,而南非也在降低利率重啟增長?!表氈@8個國家和地區(qū)構(gòu)成了82%的MSCI指數(shù):中國、韓國、中國臺灣、印度、巴西、南非、墨西哥和俄羅斯。按平均數(shù)算,這些國家和地區(qū)的美元外債占GDP不到10%。中國和印度的這一數(shù)字分別是1%和4%。阿根廷的外債占比高的很,但它被算在“發(fā)達(dá)”國家行列,并不在MSCI指數(shù)內(nèi),可作為一個曾經(jīng)的債務(wù)危機受害者,它仍然會讓人們產(chǎn)生對比,擔(dān)心起其他新興市場。

簡單地說,主導(dǎo)了新興市場指數(shù)的國家發(fā)生資金危機的威脅很小?!皷|南亞國家并不依賴美元外債?!盞ey Private Bank的首席投資官喬治·馬特尤說?!八麄冊?0年前已經(jīng)痛過了,現(xiàn)在所有的新興市場都被一把巨大的刷子懲罰了一遍。”

更有甚者,即便新興市場經(jīng)濟放緩,其增速仍超過那些長期面對低增長的成熟經(jīng)濟體。盡管評級下調(diào),國際貨幣基金組織依然預(yù)計發(fā)展中國家明年增長4.7%。而發(fā)達(dá)國家則在走向相反的方向。國際貨幣基金組織預(yù)測工業(yè)化國家的GDP增長將從今年的2.4%下降到明年的2.1%?!坝涀×?,美國如今是在經(jīng)濟上升周期的第10年,而新興市場是在第2年?!碧岢鲞@一說法的是普信集團(tuán)的投資組合專家查克·克努德森。而且,新興市場國家的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān),一般低于GDP的50%,比主要經(jīng)濟體的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)要輕得多,比如日本(253%)和英國(85%)。新興市場還占了世界人口的80%。

Research Affiliates和GMO均預(yù)測,新興市場未來的投資回報會比美國股市高得多,盡管存在波動性。兩家機構(gòu)均指出,由于基本數(shù)據(jù)的算法不公,存在著估值上的巨大差距。他們認(rèn)為最好的衡量方法,是耶魯大學(xué)的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家羅伯特·席勒首創(chuàng)的周期性調(diào)整后的價格-收入比,簡稱CAPE。這一算法使用10年期的經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整的平均收入作為分母,糾正了短期的收入高峰和低谷。如今,標(biāo)普500的CAPE值是31.1,而新興市場為12.5?!斑@意味著新興市場股價比美國股價便宜60%?!卑⒅Z特說。

Research Associates表示,新興市場的收入增長率為3.8%,僅比美國高一點點。部分原因是總部設(shè)在這些國家的大公司面臨著美國和歐洲巨頭同樣面臨的競爭因素。 但新興市場3.1%的股息收益率遠(yuǎn)高于美國基準(zhǔn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)所給出的1.9%。(收益率反映股息占價格的百分比。)

那么多新興市場的股票價格如此便宜,于是誘惑來了。Research Affiliates的布萊特曼說,上漲的估值應(yīng)該每年增加1%。算上所有的因素,新興市場股票在未來10年每年能產(chǎn)生約10%的回報。Research Affiliates對美國股市的預(yù)測是:2.6%。GMO不那么樂觀,但認(rèn)為每年5.2%的回報是很有可能的,同時對于美國股市,它認(rèn)為在估值持續(xù)萎縮的打擊下,將會慘淡經(jīng)營,讓投資者背負(fù)平均每年損失3.2%的負(fù)擔(dān),直到2025年。

這些豐厚的新興市場股價回報率也是有代價的——那是一張驟升驟降的股價圖。據(jù)Research Affiliates分析,新興市場股價的波動性比美國股市高50%。在你持有這些股份的三分之二的時間里,6%左右的波動算是正常。確有不少起伏。GMO的桑代克解釋了為什么值得去闖一闖這趟過山車?!氨阋俗詈玫囊幻婢褪?,”他說,“作為一個投資者,你不期待有偉大的事件發(fā)生。你只希望許多壞事不要發(fā)生?!边@一籃子的股票在上漲之前驟跌,這是很有可能的,所以要有長遠(yuǎn)眼光。當(dāng)悲觀情緒足夠高,而價格足夠低,那就是撲上去的時候。(財富中文網(wǎng))

本文的另一個版本刊于2018年12月1日的《財富》雜志,是“2019年投資指南”的一部分。

譯者:宣峰

Emerging-market bulls rate the sectors risks to be greatly exaggerated. For a disastrous spiral to take hold, a nation must be battling three negatives: huge foreign (usually dollar) debt, a dearth of foreign reserves, and a trade deficit. In fact, only three countries face the full trio of headwinds: Argentina, Turkey, and Indonesia. According to an analysis by Research Affiliates, all three carry heavy dollar debt, and Argentina and Turkey are grappling with full-on crises. This year it took a $50 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund to arrest the collapse in the Argentine peso, and the country’s central bank has hiked lending rates to 65%. Turkey’s economy isn’t in free fall, but it faces high inflation and a big balance of payment deficits. Relatively strong economic growth has enabled Indonesia to stabilize the rupiah by hiking rates to 5.75%.

Brazil and South Africa also merit concerns, if not as severe as the other three. They have medium-size dollar debt loads and carry trade deficits that force them to borrow dollars. “They’re both flashing yellow,” says Chris Brightman, chief investment officer for Research Affiliates. “But they also have large foreign reserves. And Brazil is finally emerging from a deep recession, while South Africa is lowering rates to restart growth.” It’s important to recognize that eight nations and regions make up 82% of the MSCI index: China, South Korea, Chinese Taiwan, India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, and Russia. On average, those nations and regions hold the equivalent of less than 10% of GDP in dollar debt. For China and India, the figures are 1% and 4%, respectively. Argentina now rates high enough on “developed” metrics that it’s not in the MSCI index, but as a past debt-crisis sufferer, it still has the potential to stoke investor concerns about other emerging markets.

Put simply, the threat of a funding crisis in the nations that dominate the emerging-market index is minimal. “The Southeast Asian nations have not binged on dollar debt,” says George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank. “They took their pain 20 years ago, and now all of emerging markets have been penalized with a broad brush.”

What’s more, even when emerging-market economies slow, they still grow faster than their grind-it-out, mature-economy counterparts. Despite the downgrade, the IMF still expects developing economies to expand at 4.7% next year. The developed world is heading in the opposite direction. The agency forecasts that GDP expansion in the industrialized world will decline from 2.4% in 2018 to 2.1% next year. “Keep in mind that the U.S. is in the 10th year of an economic up cycle, and emerging markets are in the second year,” notes Chuck Knudsen, a portfolio specialist at T. Rowe Price. Also, their government debt loads, generally averaging less than 50% of GDP, are far less burdensome than those of many major economies, including Japan (253%) and the United Kingdom (85%). And emerging markets hold 80% of the world’s people.

Both Research Affiliates and GMO predict far higher future returns in emerging markets compared with U.S. stocks, despite the volatility. Both point to a gap in valuations that’s unjustified by fundamentals. The best measure, they say, is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE, developed by Yale economist Robert Shiller. It uses a 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings as the denominator, correcting for temporary peaks and valleys in earnings. Today, the CAPE for the S&P 500 stands at 31.1, vs. 12.5 for emerging markets. “That means emerging-market stocks are 60% cheaper than U.S. stocks,” says Arnott.

Earnings growth of 3.8% in emerging markets is just a bit better than in the U.S., says Research Associates. In part, that’s because big companies headquartered in those countries face competitive factors similar to those of the U.S. and European giants. But dividend yields of 3.1% are well above the 1.9% offered by the U.S. benchmark S&P 500. (Yields reflect dividends as a percentage of prices.)

Then there’s the lure that so many ?emerging-market stocks are so darn cheap. Rising valuations, says Brightman of Research Affiliates, should add another 1% a year. Add all the components, and emerging-market stocks should return around 10% annually over the next decade. Research Affiliates’ forecast for the U.S.: 2.6%. GMO is less optimistic but believes a 5.2% annual return is probable. Still, it thinks U.S. stocks, hit by a steady contraction in valuations, will fare miserably, saddling investors with average annual losses of 3.2% through 2025.

Those rich emerging-market returns come at a price—a performance chart that careens from sharp spikes to jolting drops. According to Research Affiliates, emerging-market stocks are 50% more volatile than U.S. equities. In two-thirds of all the months you own them, you can expect 6% swings to be normal. That’s a lot of lurching around. Thorndike of GMO explains why braving the roller coaster is worth it. “The great thing about cheap,” he says, “is that as an investor, you don’t need anything great to happen. You just need a lot of bad things not to happen.” It’s possible that this basket of stocks will get worse before it gets better, so you need to take the long view. When pessimism is much too high, and prices are much too low, that’s the perfect time to pounce.

A version of this article appears in the December 1, 2018 issue of Fortune, as part of the “2019 Investor’s Guide.”

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