美股牛市已經(jīng)延續(xù)近十年了。如果按人的年齡計算，“他”現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)上四年級，開始認(rèn)識各州的首府，甚至可能在學(xué)乘除法了。但按照股市年齡，“他”已經(jīng)是一位百歲老人。這是歷史上持續(xù)時間最常的牛市，盡管可能不是漲幅最大的——從2009年到今年9月觸及近期高點(diǎn)，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)上升了333%，仍低于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)熱潮中417%的漲幅。但隨著這輪牛市日益逼近明年3月的10歲“生日”，投資者現(xiàn)在似乎比以往任何時候都更加擔(dān)心其壽命。摩根士丹利投資管理公司的董事總經(jīng)理兼高級證券投資經(jīng)理安德烈·斯利蒙最常聽到客戶的顧慮就是：“已經(jīng)九年了，它一定就要結(jié)束了?！?/p>

整個2018年，股市回調(diào)10%的情況不是出現(xiàn)一次，而是多次，令這種感覺變得越發(fā)強(qiáng)烈。就像投資咨詢公司Nuveen的全球股票業(yè)務(wù)主管薩莉娜·馬利克說的那樣，這和年初的情況正好相反，當(dāng)時的稅改和一系列政府支出讓人“興奮不已”。應(yīng)該說那股興奮勁已經(jīng)淡去。美國加征的關(guān)稅部分抵消了公司減稅的作用。美聯(lián)儲已經(jīng)開始不斷抬升利率，原因是那一陣子興奮讓美國經(jīng)濟(jì)加速增長，并且激活了長期蟄伏的通脹。大型科技公司，也就是所謂的FAANG，一直是近幾年股市上揚(yáng)的主要動力，現(xiàn)在它們卻釋放出了或許再也無法保持那種高增速的信號。如果還沒有注意到波動率這位“老朋友”，那就來數(shù)一下亞馬遜和Netflix等標(biāo)普500指數(shù)權(quán)重股今年有多少天的漲幅或跌幅達(dá)到或超過5%吧（一共有25天，真是難以置信）。

牛市能不能堅持到“上中學(xué)”仍無定論（熊市，也就是從最高點(diǎn)下跌20%的情況出現(xiàn)之前，牛市都沒有正式結(jié)束）。但無論整體方向如何，投資者都需要為本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)周期進(jìn)入新階段做好準(zhǔn)備。好消息是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然釋放出強(qiáng)烈的健康信號。馬利克指出：“說到底，我覺得還沒有足夠的指標(biāo)顯示明年經(jīng)濟(jì)將陷入衰退。所以我相信這更有可能是牛市的暫停。”

好的一面是，近期的股價下跌讓許多藍(lán)籌股較過去幾年都便宜了。今年第二季度美國GDP增速超過4%，創(chuàng)2014年以來新高，3.7%的失業(yè)率則處于49年來的最低點(diǎn)。Columbia Threadneedle Investments的股票業(yè)務(wù)全球副主管梅爾達(dá)·梅爾根認(rèn)為，本輪牛市可能比人們預(yù)計的要長，而這僅僅是因為2008年的金融危機(jī)非常嚴(yán)重——在美國歷史上僅次于大蕭條。她說：“那不是常規(guī)商業(yè)周期，而更像是把系統(tǒng)清零，然后重建。”

不過，在這個擴(kuò)張期，能像此前幾年那樣保持增長的公司變少了。安全性方面的情況也和以往不同。雖然這幾年投資者爭相尋求高派息板塊和跨國公司的保護(hù)，但許多這樣的股票現(xiàn)在看起來很貴，而且不同程度地受到關(guān)稅的影響。關(guān)鍵在于尋找不受經(jīng)濟(jì)或地緣政治沖擊影響，能繼續(xù)提高利潤而且規(guī)模大到在任何情況下都能存活的公司。梅爾根指出：“我們要投資的是能掌控自身命運(yùn)的公司，從這個角度來說我們將采取防御策略。我們不會[只是]因為價格便宜而出手?！?/p>

Nine-and-three-quarter years old. If the bull market were a child, it would be in the fourth grade, learning the state capitals and perhaps long division. But as stock runs go, this one’s a centenarian. It’s the longest bull market on record, if not quite the best—the S&P 500’s 333% rise from 2009 to its most recent peak in September is still shy of the dotcom boom’s 417% gain. But now more than ever, as they tick off the days toward this bull’s 10th birthday in March, investors seem anxious about that longevity. That’s the concern that Andrew Slimmon, managing director and senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, hears most often from clients: “It’s been nine years. We’ve gotta be nearing the end of this thing.”

That feeling has become more acute throughout 2018, in which there have been not one but two 10% stock market corrections. Contrast that with the beginning of the year, when “you had this sugar high” from tax reform and a government spending spree, as Saira Malik, head of global equities at Nuveen, puts it. It’s safe to say that high has worn off. U.S.-imposed tariffs have counteracted some of those corporate tax savings. The Federal Reserve has consistently marched interest rates higher, because that sugar high has accelerated economic growth and revived long-?dormant inflation. Big tech—the so-called FAANG stocks that have been the engine driving much of the market’s rise the last few years—have signaled that they might not be able to grow as fast anymore. If you’d been missing your old friend volatility, just count the number of days this year when the stocks of S&P 500 heavyweights Amazon and Netflix closed either up or down at least 5% from where they opened. (There were a mind-boggling 25 collectively.)

It remains an open question whether the bull market will make it to middle school age. (A bull market doesn’t officially end until there’s a bear market—a drop of 20% from the peak.) But regardless of the overall direction, investors need to equip themselves appropriately for a new stage of this economic cycle. And the good news is that the global economy still shows strong signs of health. “At the end of the day, I don’t see enough indicators that the economy is entering a recession next year,” Slimmon says. “It leads me to believe that this is more of a pause within a bull market.”

On the plus side, recent selloffs have left many blue-chip stocks looking cheaper than they have in years. GDP growth topped 4% in the second quarter, the fastest expansion since 2014, and unemployment, at 3.7%, is at a 49-year low. It’s possible, says Melda Mergen, deputy global head of equities for Columbia Threadneedle Investments, that this bull will outlive expectations simply because the 2008 financial crisis was so severe, second only to the Great Depression in U.S. history. “It’s not a regular business cycle—it’s more like clearing the system and rebuilding,” she says.

That said, at this phase of that expansion, fewer companies can sustain the kind of growth they enjoyed a few years ago. Safety will also look different than it has in the past. While in recent years investors flocked to high dividend-paying industrial and multinational corporations for protection, many such stocks now look expensive, and are disproportionately exposed to tariffs. The key is looking for companies that can grow their profits in spite of economic or geopolitical shocks, and that have the scale to survive anything. “We will be defensive in the sense of investing in companies that can control their own destiny,” says Mergen. “We’re not going to buy things [just] because they are cheap.”

以下是2019年可買入的五大金融股

不斷上升的利率和市場波動幅度增大可能有助于這些公司繁榮發(fā)展。

隨著投資者開始感覺到牛市逐步遠(yuǎn)去，他們要為隨后必將到來的熊市做好準(zhǔn)備。經(jīng)理人湯姆·漢考克的GMO Quality Fund管理著68億美元資產(chǎn)。他說：“我們尋找的是我們確信，而不是我們預(yù)計能在金融危機(jī)中活下來的公司。這是一種從安全性出發(fā)的長期考量?！本哂兄S刺意味的是，這就意味著買進(jìn)那些在2008年金融危機(jī)中受到最沉重打擊的金融股。漢考克認(rèn)為下一次它們會有更好的表現(xiàn)，原因包括較為合理的估值和它們采取的風(fēng)險管理措施。他特別青睞不那么依靠自營業(yè)務(wù)賺錢的銀行，因為如果市場下跌，它們受到的沖擊就不會那么大。美國合眾銀行就是一例，這家“保守銀行”一直都保持著很高的現(xiàn)金準(zhǔn)備金和承銷標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，目前市盈率也不到14倍。

The 5 Best Financial Stocks to Buy for 2019

Rising interest rates and greater market volatility could help these companies thrive.

As investors start to sense the bull market winding down, they’re also preparing to weather the bear market that’s sure to follow. “We’re looking for companies that we’re sure are going to be survivors of a financial crisis, not that we’re forecasting one,” says Tom Hancock, manager of the $6.8 billion GMO Quality Fund. “It’s a long-term safety kind of view.” Ironically, that’s meant buying financial stocks, which were among the hardest hit in the 2008 crash. Hancock thinks they’ll fare better next time around because of their relatively reasonable valuations and the risk management measures they’ve implemented. He particularly likes banks that rely less on profits from their own trading, so they won’t be as hard hit if markets tank—such as U.S. Bancorp, a “conservative bank” that keeps its cash reserves and underwriting standards high. It also trades at less than 14 times earnings.

另一方面，規(guī)模12億美元的T. Rowe Price Global Stock Fund的經(jīng)理人戴夫·埃斯沃特則打算利用市場不斷上升的波動性——震蕩幅度增大意味著買入和賣出增多，對收取交易手續(xù)費(fèi)的公司來說也就意味著更高的收入。埃斯沃特看好芝加哥商品交易所，這家大型期權(quán)期貨交易所應(yīng)受益于波動性上升帶來的成交量增長。他還看好芝加哥期權(quán)交易所，也就是“VIX”波動性指數(shù)的真正創(chuàng)造者。埃斯沃特說：“只要世界還是瘋狂的，這些股票就能行?！?/p>

巴美列捷福公司管理著664億美元資產(chǎn)。該公司的美國股票團(tuán)隊主管湯姆·斯雷特認(rèn)為，類似的因素讓MarketAxess“真的令人感到興奮”。MarketAxess想讓債券市場的低成本電子交易變得和股市一樣普遍。斯雷特還說，隨著利率上升，固定收益資產(chǎn)交易也應(yīng)該增多，而這會把交易者吸引到MarketAxess的平臺上。

股票交易一直是在線券商TD Ameritrade的支柱業(yè)務(wù)。但駿利亨德森的投資基金證券投資經(jīng)理、管理著250億美元資產(chǎn)的馬克·平托指出，該公司也受益于利率上升。利率較低時，TD Ameritrade手中的客戶保證金實(shí)際上處于虧損狀態(tài)，“現(xiàn)在利率已經(jīng)上升，此項業(yè)務(wù)也能實(shí)現(xiàn)一定的利潤?！彼€預(yù)計TD Ameritrade可能實(shí)施并購，因為最近對Scottrade Financial Services的收購已經(jīng)有了成效。

Dave Eiswert, manager of the $1.2 billion T. Rowe Price Global Stock fund, on the other hand, is looking to capitalize on the increasing bumpiness of markets: More volatility translates to more buying and selling—which means more revenue for companies that take a percentage of every trade. He’s bullish on CME Group, the options and futures trading giant that should benefit as greater volatility leads to higher trade volume, and CBOE, which literally makes the “VIX” volatility index. “As long as the world’s crazy, these stocks work,” Eiswert says.

Similar factors make MarketAxess “really exciting,” says Tom Slater, head of the U.S. equities team at Baillie Gifford, which oversees $66.4 billion in assets. That company is hoping to make low-cost electronic trading as popular in the bond market as it is with stocks. And as interest rates rise, fixed-income trading should pick up too, Slater says, luring traders to MarketAxess’s platforms.

At online brokerage TD Ameritrade, stock trading has been the bread and butter. But the company has also benefited from higher interest rates, says Marc Pinto, a Janus Henderson portfolio manager responsible for $25 billion in assets. When rates were low, TD Ameritrade essentially lost money on the customer deposits it holds. “Now that rates have gone up, that business is modestly profitable,” says Pinto. He also envisions potential mergers with the brokerage, which is already seeing results from its recent acquisition of Scottrade.

推薦的5只金融股如下：

芝加哥商交所（股票代碼：cme）

芝加哥期交所（股票代碼：cboe）

美國合眾銀行（股票代碼：usb）

MarketAxess（股票代碼：mktx）

TD Ameritrade（股票代碼：amtd）

以下是2019年30只最佳投資標(biāo)的的其他成員：

5只科技類股票：

Alphabet（股票代碼：googl）

Facebook（股票代碼：fb）

動視暴雪（股票代碼：atvi）

Take-Two Interactive Software（股票代碼：ttwo）

德州儀器（股票代碼：txn）

5只醫(yī)療類股票

雅培（股票代碼：ABT）

默沙東（股票代碼：MRK）

Illumina（股票代碼：ILMN）

Exact Sciences（股票代碼：EXAS）

Vertex Pharmaceuticals（股票代碼：VRTX）

5只零售類股票

TJX公司（股票代碼：tjx）

Burlington公司（股票代碼：burl）

蒂夫尼（股票代碼：tif）

家得寶（股票代碼：hd）

亞馬遜（股票代碼：amzn）

Constellation Brands公司（股票代碼：stz）

3只亞洲股票

臺積電（股票代碼：tsm）

Melco Resorts & Entertainment（股票代碼：MLCO）

美團(tuán)點(diǎn)評（港股）

5只海外企業(yè)股票

圣戈班集團(tuán)（股票代碼：CODYY）

Essity（股票代碼：ESSYY）

空中客車（股票代碼：EADSY）

Arcos Dorados（股票代碼：EADSY）

伊塔烏聯(lián)合銀行控股公司（股票代碼：ITUB）

Lojas Renner（股票代碼：LRENY）

（財富中文網(wǎng)）

本文的另一版本登載在2018年12月1日出版的《財富》雜志上，是《2019投資者指南》文章的一部分。

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

CME Group (cme)

CBOE (cboe)

U.S. Bancorp (usb)

MarketAxess (mktx)

TD Ameritrade (amtd)

Below, the rest of “The 30 Best Stocks to Buy for 2019.”

Alphabet (googl)

Facebook (fb)

Activision Blizzard (atvi)

Take-Two Interactive Software (ttwo)

Texas Instruments (txn)

Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

Merck (MRK)

Illumina (ILMN)

Exact Sciences (EXAS)

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)

TJX Companies (tjx)

Burlington Stores (burl)

Tiffany (tif)

Home Depot (hd)

Amazon (amzn)

Constellation Brands (stz)

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (tsm)

Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO)

Meituan Dianping (HKG)

Saint-Gobain (CODYY)

Essity (ESSYY)

Airbus (EADSY)

Arcos Dorados (EADSY)

Itaú Unibanco (ITUB)

Lojas Renner (LRENY)

A version of this article appears in the December 1, 2018 issue of Fortune, as part of the “2019 Investor’s Guide.”