在出現(xiàn)10年來的最差年度表現(xiàn)后，美國股市已經(jīng)開始讓人感到害怕了。信用也有了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。市場(chǎng)再次開始劇烈震蕩。對(duì)許多人來說，現(xiàn)金和短期債券可能是最佳去處。

2019年伊始，全球規(guī)模最大的幾家基金公司的高管、證券投資經(jīng)理以及策略師謹(jǐn)慎表示各類資產(chǎn)的回報(bào)率可能都不高。他們還敦促投資者在追尋價(jià)值的過程中變得更為挑剔。我們將他們的觀點(diǎn)總結(jié)如下。

朱利恩·蒂默：富達(dá)投資全球宏觀部門主管

2019年美國公司利潤(rùn)增速將下滑到5%-7%，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能再加息一到兩次，年初的股票市盈率將處于合理水平。這種環(huán)境下債券看起來挺好。股市表現(xiàn)應(yīng)好于2018年。最好的機(jī)會(huì)應(yīng)來自新興股市，它們一直落后于美股。2018年12月13日蒂默接受采訪時(shí)表示：“如果把所有因素都考慮進(jìn)去，對(duì)股市來說還算不壞，也許達(dá)不到兩位數(shù)，但會(huì)更好?！?/p>

羅伯·洛夫利絲：Capital Group副董事長(zhǎng)兼股票投資經(jīng)理

注意蘋果公司等設(shè)備制造商，它們此前很棒，然而產(chǎn)品缺乏多樣性將讓它們的表現(xiàn)不復(fù)從前。與之相反，三星電子不光有設(shè)備和手機(jī)，它還制造其他“必需品”，如內(nèi)存芯片。要選擇股票，而不是跟隨指數(shù)。比如說，在癌癥治療和個(gè)性化醫(yī)療領(lǐng)域，全世界都有基于人體化學(xué)取得突破性進(jìn)展的生物科技和醫(yī)藥公司。我們不會(huì)重點(diǎn)關(guān)注某幾家公司，而是投資同一行業(yè)中的多家公司，原因是其中一家會(huì)有令人驚訝的突破，而另一家的藥物第三階段臨床試驗(yàn)可能以失敗告終。

克里斯汀娜·霍珀：Invesco Ltd.首席全球市場(chǎng)策略師

買入新興市場(chǎng)股票、科技股、全球性分紅型個(gè)股以及房地產(chǎn)、私募股權(quán)和大宗商品等另類資產(chǎn)，特別是黃金。賣出或減持美股，特別是非必需消費(fèi)品股?；翮暝?018年12月27日發(fā)出的電子郵件中說：“我設(shè)定的基本情景是全球增長(zhǎng)放慢但仍步伐堅(jiān)實(shí)，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)也將減速。同時(shí)，我認(rèn)為全球股市回報(bào)率會(huì)處于一般水平，但會(huì)高于零。不過，隨著正面和負(fù)面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)同時(shí)上升，‘尾部’正在變大。比如說，中美迅速停止貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)可能提升全球增速并增厚股市回報(bào)，特別是在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的鴿派傾向比現(xiàn)在更加明顯的情況下。反之，中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)升級(jí)可能壓低全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增幅，并有可能拉低股市回報(bào)，尤其是如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的鴿派傾向不那么明顯的話。”

伊凡申：太平洋投資管理公司（Pimco）集團(tuán)首席投資官

要警惕波動(dòng)性的上升，信貸利差的擴(kuò)大以及收益率曲線的扁平化，這預(yù)示著12至24個(gè)月內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)將滑坡。現(xiàn)在應(yīng)囤積現(xiàn)金，等待機(jī)會(huì)，比如利差增大以及公司債超跌。英國金融股可能有機(jī)會(huì)，原因是估值因人們擔(dān)心英國無序脫歐而下跌，Pimco則認(rèn)為出現(xiàn)這種情況的可能性很小。伊凡申于2018年12月13日接受彭博電臺(tái)采訪時(shí)說：“我們開始在信貸領(lǐng)域看到一些機(jī)會(huì)，但總的來說我們?nèi)詫?duì)信貸感到擔(dān)心?！?/p>

杰弗里·岡德拉奇：DoubleLine Capital首席投資官兼首席執(zhí)行官

避開美國股市和公司債，也要避開長(zhǎng)期美國國債，因?yàn)槔士赡茉俅紊仙颐绹嘧终谠龃?。最佳“下注”?duì)象是質(zhì)量高、久期短的低波動(dòng)債券基金。岡德拉奇于2018年12月17日接受CNBC采訪時(shí)表示：“這聽起來確實(shí)平淡無奇，高質(zhì)量短期債券組合可能是進(jìn)入2019年以后的最佳選擇?！?/p>

里查德·特尼爾：貝萊德全球首席投資策略師

股市中我們看重質(zhì)量：現(xiàn)金流、可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)以及干凈的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。美國是我們看好的地區(qū)性市場(chǎng)，我們同時(shí)認(rèn)為新興市場(chǎng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回報(bào)率有了改善。在固定收益領(lǐng)域，我們把美國政府債券新增為厭惡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)環(huán)境下防范晚周期事件的“壓艙石”。我們青睞中短期債券。就整體證券投資而言，要避開上升空間有限，下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)卻很大的領(lǐng)域，比如歐洲股市。2018年12月10日，特尼爾在寫給客戶的報(bào)告中指出：“我們認(rèn)為2019年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和公司利潤(rùn)增速將放緩，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將進(jìn)入晚周期階段。”

比爾·斯托博格：T. Rowe Price Group Inc.首席執(zhí)行官

美國股市一直表現(xiàn)良好。今后10年合理的年度回報(bào)率應(yīng)為5%-7%。這低于過去100年的平均水平，但并不算糟糕。新興市場(chǎng)股票年初的估值要低得多，股息收益率則較高，今后10年的回報(bào)率有望達(dá)到8%-10%。斯托博格在2018年12月5日接受采訪時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)，美元貶值將給美國投資者帶來更多收益。

約瑟夫·戴維斯：先鋒集團(tuán)首席全球經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家

預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將放慢，但美國或全球經(jīng)濟(jì)都不會(huì)衰退。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將下滑到2%左右。通脹無實(shí)質(zhì)性上升，因?yàn)楣べY的上漲不大可能推高核心通脹率。今后10年美國股市的前景是增長(zhǎng)3%-5%，這將和過去30年10.6%的年化回報(bào)率形成鮮明對(duì)比。戴維斯于2018年12月6日發(fā)表報(bào)告稱，從美國投資者的角度講，非美國股市的預(yù)期回報(bào)率介于6%-8%之間。

奧馬爾·阿奎拉：嘉信理財(cái)投資管理股票和多資產(chǎn)策略業(yè)務(wù)首席投資官

避開或拋售小盤股、高收益?zhèn)约百Y產(chǎn)負(fù)債率較高而且/或者運(yùn)用杠桿的證券。向醫(yī)療保健、非必需消費(fèi)品和地區(qū)性銀行等板塊中利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)和分紅有可持續(xù)性的證券投資。新興市場(chǎng)有上升空間，因?yàn)樗鼈兊南鄬?duì)估值有吸引力，而且下半年美元可能貶值。阿奎拉在2018年12月21日的電子郵件中表示：“全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩，貿(mào)易、特別是對(duì)華貿(mào)易相關(guān)問題更受關(guān)注，貨幣政策收緊、流動(dòng)性下降以及對(duì)歷史平均波動(dòng)率的均值回歸都可能為2019年的股市確立基調(diào)?！?/p>

丹·福斯：盧米斯賽勒斯基金公司副董事長(zhǎng)

這位債券投資經(jīng)理正在“非常仔細(xì)地觀察歐盟內(nèi)部某些國家的輕微脫離跡象，特別是法國和德國。你得關(guān)注這一點(diǎn)。短期內(nèi)你必須這樣，因?yàn)闅W洲央行對(duì)此感到擔(dān)心。長(zhǎng)期而言，你也必須關(guān)注歐盟的情況，看它會(huì)不會(huì)衰落到毫無作用的地步。英國會(huì)不會(huì)二次公投，如果會(huì)，‘留歐’票數(shù)會(huì)不會(huì)占到55%？我覺得第一季度這個(gè)問題就會(huì)有答案?！备Ｋ乖?018年12月20日的采訪中說：“更重要的是貿(mào)易談判的進(jìn)展。我們正在和中國比拼影響力。中國是新興勢(shì)力，我們則是老牌強(qiáng)國?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

U.S. stocks are looking scary after their worst year in a decade. Credit is risky too. Volatility is back. For many, cash and short-term debt may be the best place to go.

As fund company executives, portfolio managers and strategists at some of the world’s biggest money managers turn to 2019, they’re cautioning that returns could be muted across asset classes. They’re also urging investors to be increasingly selective in the quest for value. Here’s a sampling of views.

Jurrien Timmer：Fidelity Investments, director of global macro

U.S. earnings growth will slow to 5 percent to 7 percent in 2019, the Fed may raise rates once or twice more, and the price-earnings ratio of the stock market will start the year at a reasonable point. Bonds look all right in this environment. Stocks should do better than they did in 2018. The best opportunity should be in emerging market stocks, which have lagged far behind their U.S. counterparts. “If you add it all up, it’s not a bad story for stocks — maybe not double-digits, but better,” Timmer said in a Dec. 13 interview.

Rob Lovelace：Capital Group, vice chairman and equity portfolio manager

Watch out for device companies, such as Apple Inc., that are great until they stop being great because they lack product diversity. By contrast, Samsung Electronics Co. isn’t just devices and handsets but also creates other necessities, such as memory chips. Be a stock picker rather than buying the index. For example, there is groundbreaking work around the world in biotech and pharma companies in the area of cancer therapies and personalized treatments based on body chemistry. Rather than focus on specific companies, we invest in multiple companies in the sector, as one will have an amazing breakthrough and another will have a stage-three drug that fails.

Kristina Hooper：Invesco Ltd., chief global market strategist

Buy emerging-market equities, tech stocks, global dividend-paying stocks and alternative assets, such as real estate, private equity and commodities — especially gold. Sell or decrease U.S. equities, consumer discretionary stocks in particular. “My base case is decelerating but solid growth globally, with the U.S. decelerating as well. I also expect tepid but positive global stock market returns. However, the ‘tails’ are getting fatter as risks, both positive and negative, increase. For example, a quick resolution of the trade war with China could push global growth higher and also push stock market returns higher — especially if the Fed become significantly more dovish. Conversely, an escalation of the trade war with China could put downward pressure on global economic growth and likely push stock markets lower as well — particularly if the Fed is less dovish,” she said in a Dec. 27 email.

Dan Ivascyn：Pacific Investment Management Co., group chief investment officer

Beware of rising volatility, widening credit spreads and a flattening yield curve that are indicating an economic downturn within 12 to 24 months. Increase cash positions now to await opportunities, such as wider spreads and overshooting to the downside in corporate debt. Potential opportunities are found in U.K. financials, after valuations sank amid fears about a chaotic Brexit, which Pimco believes is a low-probability event. “We are beginning to see a few select opportunities around credit, but we remain concerned about credit in general,” Ivascyn said in a Dec. 13 Bloomberg Radio interview.

Jeffrey Gundlach：DoubleLine Capital, CIO and CEO

Avoid U.S. stocks and corporate debt, and steer clear of long-term Treasuries as rates are likely to resume rising amid swelling U.S. deficits. Best bets are high-quality, low-duration, low-volatility bond funds. “This is a capital preservation environment,” Gundlach said in a Dec. 17 interview on CNBC. “Unsexy as this sounds, a short-term, high-quality bond portfolio is probably the best way to go as you head into 2019.”

Richard Turnill：BlackRock Inc., global chief investment strategist

In equities, we like quality: cash flow, sustainable growth and clean balance sheets. The U.S. is a favored region, and we see emerging market equities offering improved compensation for risk. In fixed income, we add U.S. government debt as ballast against late-cycle risk-off events. We prefer short- to medium-term maturities. In a total portfolio context, steer away from areas with limited upside but hefty downside risk, such as European stocks. “We see a slowdown in global growth and corporate earnings in 2019 with the U.S. economy entering a late-cycle phase,” he said a Dec. 10 note to clients.

Bill Stromberg：T. Rowe Price Group Inc., CEO

U.S. stocks have had a good run. For the next 10 years, 5 percent to 7 percent annual returns would be reasonable. That is less than the 100-year average, but not terrible. Emerging market stocks are starting out a lot cheaper and have a higher dividend yield. You could get 8 percent to 10 percent returns over the next 10 years. If the U.S. dollar weakens you could get more as a U.S. investor, he said in a Dec. 5 interview.

Joseph Davis：Vanguard Group, chief global economist

Expect an economic slowdown but not a recession in the U.S or globally. U.S. growth will decelerate to about 2 percent. No material acceleration in inflation because we are unlikely to see higher wages pass through into higher core inflation. The outlook for U.S. equities over the next decade is in the 3 percent to 5 percent range, in stark contrast with the 10.6 percent annualized return generated over the last 30 years. From a U.S. investor’s perspective, the expected return outlook for non-U.S. equity markets is in the 6 percent to 8 percent range, he said in a Dec. 6 report.

Omar Aguilar：Charles Schwab Investment Management, CIO of equities and multi-asset strategies

Avoid or sell small-cap equities, high-yield bonds and securities with high debt relative to assets, and/or leveraged balanced sheets. Invest in securities that have sustainability in earnings growth and dividends, in sectors such as health care, consumer discretionary and regional banks. Emerging markets have upside given their attractive relative valuations and the prospect of a weaker dollar in the second half of the year. “Decelerating global economic growth, increased attention to trade-related development — particularly with China — tighter monetary policies, reduced liquidity, and a mean reversion toward historically average volatility levels are likely to set the tone for equity markets in 2019,” he said in a Dec. 21 email.

Dan Fuss：Loomis Sayles & Co., vice chairman

The bond manager is watching “very carefully the slight pulling apart within the European Union with individual countries — France in particular, and Germany. You have to keep an eye on that. Short-term, you have to because it concerns the European Central Bank. Long-term, you have to watch what is happening to the European Union and if it could weaken to the point of ineffectual. Is there a second referendum in Britain and if so, does ‘Remain’ get 55 percent of the vote? That I think is a first-quarter event.” “More serious is what happens in the trade negotiations. We’re in a push-for-influence war with China. China’s the emerging power and we’re the established power,” he said in a Dec. 20 interview.