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不看好股市了?華爾街的收益預測在快速下跌

不看好股市了?華爾街的收益預測在快速下跌

Shawn Tully 2019-02-20
華爾街的預期一直很高,但以前可能太高了。

圖片來源:Spencer Platt—Getty Images

雖然很少有投資者注意到或者想注意到,但華爾街預計2019年大部分時間里股市將遭遇收益寒冬,不過會因為年底飆升至新的高度得到拯救。“寒冬”一說十分可信。本應該把股市從平庸甚至更差的預期中解救出來的大解凍并不會發(fā)生。

2019年的牛市行情中,雖然收益不會像去年那樣大幅上漲,但仍將上揚5%至10%,考慮到2018年全年四個季度都表現(xiàn)驚人,打破了各種紀錄,想要保持同樣成績實在不易,所以這個數(shù)字也已經十分不錯。

人們普遍認為2019年會在史上最佳年份的基礎上適度增長,但投資者應該警惕這種看法。證券分析師對未來收益的預測幾乎總是過于樂觀,甚至是太過樂觀。因此隨著收益發(fā)布季的來臨,分析師對第四季度收益的預測就會大幅下跌,公布的收益總是比預測低很多。

令人不安的是,分析師預見2019年不僅僅是第一季度、而是前九個月幾乎都不會有增長。金融數(shù)據和分析公司FactSet調研了分析師對未來收益發(fā)展的普遍看法。FactSet在1月25日發(fā)布的《透視收益》(“Earnings Insight”)報告中指出,華爾街預計第一季度每股收益僅增長0.7%,截至9月30日,前三個季度增幅為2.1%,即從122.68美元略增至125.27美元。

因此,股票分析師預測今年大部分時間通脹調整后的每股收益漲幅幾乎為零。華爾街的悲觀看法的事情應當引起警惕。如果銀行和經紀人認為情況會變差,實際數(shù)字會更差。事實上,之所以認為2019年仍將獲得不錯收益,完全是因為人們預測第四季度將出現(xiàn)井噴式增長。FactSet表示,這種想法很普遍,但需要2019年第四季度同比增長11.5%達到每股44.92美元。如果2019年收尾能如此強勢,全年每股盈利增長率將提升至6.3%。

現(xiàn)在預測出現(xiàn)驚人的后撤,因此哪怕是中等程度的盈利預測能否實現(xiàn)也十分值得懷疑。預估值越激進,越不靠譜,越容易受到重大下跌風險的影響。歡迎再次來到童話樂園。

全年收益預測迅速下跌,童話正在褪色。截至12月31日,預測值為7.8%。第四季度上漲接近12%的可能性有多大?預測中的44.92美元將比去年第三季度的史上最佳季度業(yè)績高5%。分析師預測,標普500成分公司2019年的收入增長僅為4.8%,比去年增幅下降近4個百分點,而這一數(shù)字同樣可能因為過度樂觀而有所夸大。因此實際上,華爾街預計今年的利潤作為國民收入、財政收入和股東權益的一部分,將在2018年歷史新高的基礎上再次上漲,推動每股收益上升6.3%。第四季度的利潤額更需要遠遠高出2018年史詩般的紀錄。

分析師對2019年大部分時間“實際”利潤增長為零的驚人預測應該擴大至2019年全年。盈利不會總是推翻經濟學的引力模型,如果投資者能真正讀懂經濟信號(財富中文網)

譯者:Agatha

Though few investors are noticing, or want to, Wall Street is predicting a chill in earnings for most of 2019—rescued by a surge to new heights at the close of the year. The “chill” scenario is convincing. The big defrost that’s supposed to salvage the outlook from mediocre or worse––is not.

The bull case for 2019 holds that although earnings growth won’t prove nearly as strong as last year, profits will still rise in the mid-to-high single digits, not bad at all, considering that 2018 is a tough act to follow, a blockbuster four quarter span that shattered all records.

Investors should be wary of the widespread view that 2019 will modestly improve on the best year ever. Securities analysts’ forecasts for future earnings are almost always overly, or even wildly, optimistic. The estimates made for a quarter nine months hence drop sharply as that earnings season gets closer and closer, and the reported profits are almost always a lot lower than the forecasts posted months earlier.

What’s unsettling is that analysts already foresee almost no profit growth, not just for Q1, but for the first nine months of 2019. FactSet, the financial data and analytics firm, polls analysts to establish their consensus readings on the course of future profits. In its “Earnings Insight” report released on January 25, FactSet noted that Wall Street forecasts EPS gains of just .7% in Q1, and 2.1% for the three quarters ending September 30, registering a tiny increase from $122.68 to $125.27.

So equity analysts anticipate almost zero inflation-adjusted growth in earnings-per-share for most of the year. That Wall Street is turning pessimistic should sound an alarm. When the banks and brokers think things will get bad, look for the actual numbers to be worse. In fact, the view that 2019 will still be a pretty good year depends entirely on predictions for a blowout fourth quarter. According to FactSet, the consensus calls for a jump of 11.5% over Q4 of 2018 to $44.92 a share. That powerhouse finale would raise EPS gains for the year to 6.3%.

Those astoundingly backloaded estimates render even the middling profit forecast extremely questionable. The farther out the estimate, the more unreliable, and more vulnerable to a radical downshift, it becomes. Welcome once again to fantasyland.

The fantasy is fading, as shown by the rapid drop in that full-year profit forecast. As late as December 31, the reading stood at 7.8%. How likely is an almost 12% resurgence in Q4? The predicted $44.92 would exceed the highest quarterly result ever achieved, notched in Q3 of last year, by almost 5%. Analysts predict that S&P 500 revenues will wax just 4.8% in 2019, a drop of almost 4 points from last year, and a figure that, once again, is likely inflated by over-optimism. So in effect, Wall Street anticipates that margins for the year will rise from their already never-before-seen heights as a share of national income, revenues and shareholder equity to generate 6.3% increases in EPS. And by Q4, those margins would need to tower well above the epic, never-before-seen levels of 2018.

BThe analyst community’s surprise prediction of zero “real” profit growth for most of 2019 should be extended to all of 2019. Earnings don’t defy economic gravity forever, and if investors really read its signals, Wall Street––in its own way––is acknowledging that gravity is taking hold once again.

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