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收益率曲線 低利率預示壞消息的時候 3月底的5天里，3個月期美國債的收益率超過了10年期美國債，這給許多投資者的預期蒙上了一層陰云。這樣的情況正是經濟學家最為看重的衰退預兆，它有一個很難懂的名字，叫做收益率曲線倒掛。貝萊德全球固定收益部門首席投資官瑞克·萊德說：“它不光是最可靠的，其實也是唯一的?！?/p> 收益率曲線是長期（比如10年期）政府債券所付利息（“收益”）和短期（比如2年期或3個月期）政府債券所付利息之差。長期債券的收益通常較高，因為在回報大于他們付出的耐心和承擔的風險時，投資者才愿意將一只債券持有10年之久。所以收益率曲線會在零以上。但投資者偶爾也會相信今后的利率和股票回報率將非常低，所以他們最好現(xiàn)在就買進長期債券，從而鎖定現(xiàn)有收益率（盡管目前收益率也較低）并持有風險不像另類投資那么高的資產。投資者增持會造成長期債券收益率低于短期債券，從而使收益率曲線跌至零以下，也就是“倒掛”。這將使經濟學家和投資者擔心今后的局勢將變差。 收益率曲線是可靠的衰退預兆嗎？一位投資者說：“它不光是最可靠的，其實也是唯一的?！?/em> 美聯(lián)儲的經濟數(shù)據(jù)顯示，1957年以來的九次經濟衰退前都出現(xiàn)了這種情況。此外，需要強調的只有一點，那就是持平或倒掛的收益率曲線至少發(fā)出過三次假警報。最近的一次是在1998年的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)熱潮期間，那次倒掛后美股繼續(xù)上漲了55%，隨后才見頂。正如股票獨立研究機構CFRA首席投資策略分析師山姆·斯托沃在研究報告中所述：“雖然鱒魚都是魚，但并非所有的魚都是鱒魚。” 有理由認為可以把這條最新出現(xiàn)的“魚”扔回水里去。摩根大通的凱利指出，歷史上，收益率曲線倒掛前美聯(lián)儲都不得不把利率提高到遠高于目前的水平。摩根史丹利投資管理公司董事總經理安德魯·斯利蒙也稱：“出現(xiàn)問題前得有泡沫，有過剩，有高于平均水平的增長率?！倍渌麑＜艺J為，后金融危機時代該指標已經沒有意義，原因是各家央行空前的購債行為已經扭曲了債券收益率差。但對于此項指標已不再適用的說法，斯利蒙說：“我的回答是‘告訴我為什么以前每次都是這樣呢？’”焦慮的投資者往往看不到另外一種走向，那就是盡管收益率曲線再次倒掛而且一直保持倒掛狀態(tài)，但衰退來襲前投資者仍可能有至少一年時間來調整投資。這樣的調整也許意味著轉向估值不那么高的股票，更多地保留現(xiàn)金以及趁其收益率較高時增持期限較短的債券?！狫en Wieczner |
The Yield Curve When low rates augur bad news For five days in late March, the three-month Treasury bill paid higher interest than the 10-year note—and cast a gloomy cloud over many investors’ outlooks. The event was an example of the one omen economists rely on more than any other to predict recessions: an obscure-sounding metric called the inverted yield curve. “Not only is it the most reliable, it’s really the only one,” says Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income. The yield curve is the gap between interest payouts (“yields”) on long-term government bonds—say, 10-year Treasuries—and yields on their short-term counterparts, such as the two-year note or three-month T-bill. Normally long-term bonds pay more, because investors are willing to hold on to a bond for a decade only if they’re compensated more for their patience and risk—so the curve is positive. But occasionally, investors become convinced that interest rates and stock returns will be so low in the future that they’re better off buying long-term bonds now, to lock in today’s yields (even if they’re relatively low) and own an asset that will be less risky than the alternatives. They buy more, driving yields below short-term rates; the yield curve goes negative, or “inverts”; and economists and investors fear bearish times ahead. Is the yield curve a reliable recession predictor? “Not only is it the most reliable, it’s really the only one,” says one investor. It’s a phenomenon that has preceded the past nine recessions since 1957, according to economic data from the Federal Reserve. There’s just one big caveat: Flat or inverted curves have also generated at least three false alarms—most recently during the dotcom boom times of 1998, when, after an inversion, the stock market proceeded to rise 55% before it peaked. As Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA, put it in a research note: “While all trout are fish, not all fish are trout.” There’s reason to think this latest fish is one to throw back. Kelly of J.P. Morgan notes that historically, the Fed has to raise interest rates much higher than they are today before the curve inverts. “You need a bubble, you need excess, you need above-average growth before we have a problem,” adds Andrew Slimmon, managing director at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Other experts argue that the indicator is no longer meaningful in the post–financial crisis era, as unprecedented bond buying by central banks has distorted bond spreads. Still, when people tell Slimmon the predictor doesn’t apply anymore, he says, “My response is, ‘Explain to me why, every time in the past, this is consistent?’?” One other trend that anxious investors often miss: Even should the yield curve invert again and stay inverted, investors will still likely have at least a year to adjust their portfolios before a recession hits. Adjusting might mean rotating into less highly valued stocks, keeping more in cash, and scooping up shorter-term bonds while their higher yields last. —Jen Wieczner |
