中國消費者

忘掉GDP，盯緊零售商和游客

今年1月，蘋果公司警告投資者說，作為該公司在增長方面最為倚重的市場，中國的消費增速正在放慢。此后短短一天內，蘋果的市值就蒸發(fā)了740億美元。不久之后，福特汽車和日本電子行業(yè)巨頭松下的投資者也遇到了相似的“糟心日子”，而且原因也一樣。這讓人們再次意識到中國經濟放緩的影響會有多么的廣泛和嚴重。

問題在于怎樣預見到中國經濟將放緩。外界普遍認為，國家經濟健康狀況的常用指標GDP對中國來說并不可靠。地方政府實現中央制定的增長目標可以得到嘉獎，所以他們會報出讓人眼前一亮的數字，而且許多評論人士都認為中央政府會熨平這些數據。芝加哥大學經濟學教授謝長泰今年早些時候參與撰寫的報告認為，中國將2016年GDP高估了15%左右。

就算以上數字可靠，也可以認為GDP無法讓人全面把握一個快速變化的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)——在這個系統(tǒng)中，消費開支正在取代重工業(yè)的經濟引擎地位?？▋然鶉H和平研究院高級研究員、世界銀行前中國業(yè)務局局長黃育川說：“GDP并不能告訴你一個項目是好是壞，或者服務是否有用。它只是告訴你正在生產哪些東西，而且它是否包括那些鬼城和閑置道路也不重要?！?/p>

為找到更可信的指標，許多投資者都把目光投向中國國家統(tǒng)計局公布的居民開支和個人收入數據（該局網站上有英文信息，新聞報道中也可看到這些數字）。謝長泰認為，這些統(tǒng)計報告采用基于調查的方法，這提高了操控數據的難度。與此同時，職業(yè)投資者用更難找到的而且完全不受政府控制的消費者數據強化了這些信息。共同基金公司Matthews Asia投資策略分析師安迪·羅斯曼舉的實例包括進出口統(tǒng)計數據和中國游客在日本的消費額。

一位中國專家說：“GDP并不能告訴你一個項目是好是壞，或者服務是否有用?！?/em>

China’s Consumers

Forget GDP—keep an eye on retailers and tourists

Over the course of a single day this January, Apple lost $74 billion in market capitalization, after warning investors that spending in the country it most relied on for growth—China—was slowing. Investors in Ford Motor Co. and Japanese electronics giant Panasonic endured similarly ugly days soon after, for the same reason, a reminder of how broad and bitter the impact of a Chinese slowdown could be.

The question is how to forecast that slowdown. The usual barometer of a nation’s economic health, GDP, is widely seen as unreliable in China. Local governments are rewarded for hitting growth targets set by the central government and so self-report impressive numbers; many commentators believe the central government also smooths out the data. Chang-Tai Hsieh, an economics professor at the University of Chicago, coauthored a paper earlier this year making the case that China had overstated GDP by about 15% in 2016.

Even if the figures were reliable, GDP arguably can’t fully capture a rapidly changing ecosystem in which consumer spending is overtaking heavy industry as an economic driver. “GDP doesn’t tell you if a project is good or bad, or if services are useful,” says Yukon Huang, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and former China director at the World Bank. “It just tells you what is being produced—and it doesn’t matter if it’s ghost cities or roads that don’t go anywhere.”

For a more trustworthy indicator, many investors look at household expenditures and personal income data, published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (available on its website in English, as well as in news reports). Hsieh argues that those reports’ survey-driven methodology makes them harder to manipulate. Professional investors, meanwhile, reinforce that information with harder-to-find consumer data that’s completely outside the state’s control. Andy Rothman, an investment strategist at mutual fund firm Matthews Asia, cites import-export statistics and data on Chinese tourism spending in Japan as examples.

“GDP doesn’t tell you if a project is good or bad, or if services are useful,” says one China expert.

What story are Chinese consumers telling the world right now? It’s a cautiously upbeat one, and one that suggests they won’t be the trigger for the next recession. Income growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2018, to 6.5% year over year, its slowest pace since 2016. Retail activity remains robust: In fact, consultancy eMarketer expects Chinese retail spending to hit $5.6 trillion this year—-exceeding American retail spending for the first time ever. The warning sign to watch for: Nicholas Lardy, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says investors should worry if income growth lags China’s reported GDP growth rate over multiple quarters. That would be a signal to reduce exposure to emerging markets, where business fortunes rise and fall with China. —Lucinda Shen