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熊市注定要來(lái)臨,必須關(guān)注這5種數(shù)據(jù)

熊市注定要來(lái)臨,必須關(guān)注這5種數(shù)據(jù)

Jen Wieczner, Rey Mashayekhi, Lucinda Shen, Erik Sherman, Shawn Tully,  Nicolas Rapp 2019-05-03
當(dāng)前的美好時(shí)光不會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)持續(xù)下去。怎樣在熊市“吃掉”你的積蓄前采取行動(dòng)?

公司債務(wù)

借多少錢(qián)才算過(guò)多?

即使是在情況良好的時(shí)候,為巨額債務(wù)償還利息也有可能削弱公司的盈利能力。面對(duì)不斷減速的經(jīng)濟(jì)或持續(xù)上升的利率,公司受到的打擊將是前者的兩倍或三倍。咨詢公司麥肯錫的統(tǒng)計(jì)顯示,全球公司債務(wù)現(xiàn)已突破66萬(wàn)億美元,而金融危機(jī)前的規(guī)模為29萬(wàn)億,鑒于前述原因,了解這些數(shù)字會(huì)讓人變得清醒。

美國(guó)公司總負(fù)債為15萬(wàn)億美元左右,占美國(guó)GDP的73.5%,接近歷史最高點(diǎn)。據(jù)證券行業(yè)估算,2018年底美國(guó)公司債券總額達(dá)到9.2萬(wàn)億美元。同時(shí),盡管利率一直很低,但很大一部分公司債務(wù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和成本都較高。惠譽(yù)評(píng)級(jí)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截至今年2月底,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大的垃圾級(jí)債券占美國(guó)公司債券的20%以上,另有46.7%的債券評(píng)級(jí)為“BBB”,比垃圾級(jí)高一檔。

部分行業(yè)在債務(wù)中陷得較深。惠譽(yù)評(píng)級(jí)資深主管帕特里克·芬尼根指出,杠桿已經(jīng)很高的行業(yè)包括醫(yī)療保健、制藥、食品飲料和能源,而且其杠桿換取的很大一部分資金都用在了并購(gòu)上。當(dāng)然,杠桿本身并不壞,前提是公司利潤(rùn)夠多。麥肯錫合伙人蘇珊·隆德建議,要判斷某家公司的負(fù)債是否可控,就要看它的利息覆蓋率,或者說(shuō)收入除以利息支出的商是否至少達(dá)到1.5。隆德估算,5%-6%的美國(guó)公司無(wú)法滿足這項(xiàng)要求,在新興市場(chǎng),不達(dá)標(biāo)的公司則多達(dá)25%。

第二個(gè)數(shù)字令人不安,原因是中國(guó)等新興市場(chǎng)的公司特別依賴銀行債務(wù),也就是貸款。這類債務(wù)并不透明——投資者要弄清楚公司借了多少錢(qián)并非易事,而且銀行債務(wù)更有可能采用“可變利率”,那就意味著如果市場(chǎng)中的利率出現(xiàn)較大范圍的上升,源于銀行貸款的利息支出就會(huì)增多。

獨(dú)立投資管理公司Brown Advisory固定收益和投資經(jīng)理湯姆·格拉夫建議,要想在利率突然上升時(shí)降低公司債務(wù)對(duì)自己的影響,就要避開(kāi)債券ETF,原因是投資者因?yàn)槔噬蠞q而爭(zhēng)相拋售時(shí),ETF的價(jià)格可能出現(xiàn)非常劇烈的震蕩(可以考慮開(kāi)放式共同基金或直接購(gòu)買債券)。同時(shí),在債券和股票市場(chǎng)都要尋找沒(méi)有資產(chǎn)負(fù)債問(wèn)題的公司——如果一家公司債臺(tái)高筑,最好現(xiàn)在就轉(zhuǎn)身離開(kāi)?!狤rik Sherman

Corporate Debt

How much borrowing is too much?

Even in good times, servicing the interest on a hefty debt load can hurt a company’s profitability. In the face of a slowing economy or rising interest rates, you get a double or triple whammy. All of which makes it sobering to realize that global business debt now exceeds $66 trillion, up from $29 trillion before the financial crisis, according to consultancy McKinsey.

Total U.S. corporate debt remains near its all-time high of 73.5% of GDP, at about $15 trillion. Corporate bond debt hit $9.2 trillion at 2018’s close, according to securities industry estimates. And although interest rates have been low, much corporate debt represents higher-risk, more-expensive borrowing. At the end of February, more than 20% of U.S. corporate debt was rated in riskier junk categories, according to Fitch Ratings, and 46.7% was classified BBB, one step above junk.

Some industries are swimming in more debt than others. Patrick Finnegan, a senior director at Fitch Ratings, identifies health care, pharma, food and beverage, and energy among the sectors that have built up heavy leverage, with much of it going to fund mergers and acquisitions. Leverage isn’t inherently bad, of course, if a company’s earnings are strong enough. To figure out whether a given company’s debt load is manageable, McKinsey partner Susan Lund recommends checking whether its interest coverage ratio—revenue divided by interest payments—is at least 1.5. Lund estimates that 5% to 6% of U.S. companies fail to clear that bar, while as many as 25% of companies in emerging markets fall short.

That latter figure is troubling because businesses in emerging markets, including China, are particularly dependent on bank debt—that is, loans. This debt is largely opaque—it’s not easy for investors to tell how much companies have borrowed. And bank debt is more likely to be “variable rate,” meaning that interest payments on the loans go up if rates rise more broadly in the market.

To reduce exposure to corporate debt if rates spike, Tom Graff, head of fixed income and a portfolio manager at Brown Advisory, suggests steering clear of bond ETFs, whose prices could get very volatile if investors stampede out when interest rates rise. (Try open-end mutual funds or direct bond buying instead.) And in both the bond and stock markets, look for clean balance sheets: If a company has a heavy debt load, now’s a good time to walk on by. —Erik Sherman

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