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Jen Wieczner, Rey Mashayekhi, Lucinda Shen, Erik Sherman, Shawn Tully,  Nicolas Rapp 2019-05-03
當(dāng)前的美好時(shí)光不會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)持續(xù)下去。怎樣在熊市“吃掉”你的積蓄前采取行動(dòng)?

公司利潤(rùn)

員工拿得多,股東得到的就可能變少

幾十年來(lái),沃倫·巴菲特秉承的指導(dǎo)原則中一直有這么一條,那就是當(dāng)公司利潤(rùn)在GDP中的占比達(dá)到不成比例的高點(diǎn)時(shí),資本主義的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)屬性就會(huì)產(chǎn)生吸引力,進(jìn)而把這個(gè)比例拉回到歷史正常水平。這位奧馬哈圣人擔(dān)心,公司盈利能力將下降,股票回報(bào)率也會(huì)變得很低,甚至更糟。

如果這條原則仍然適用,投資者就有可能要經(jīng)歷一段艱難旅程了。就某些指標(biāo)而言,巴菲特所說(shuō)的吸引力已經(jīng)開(kāi)始發(fā)揮作用。2012年美國(guó)的公司利潤(rùn)/GDP比例在11%見(jiàn)頂,但到了2018年第四季度,公司利潤(rùn)仍占GDP的9.3%,比60年來(lái)的平均值高2.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。這表明它還會(huì)進(jìn)一步下跌。金融數(shù)據(jù)和分析公司FactSet調(diào)查的分析師預(yù)計(jì),今年第一季度標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的每股收益將同比下滑4.2%,第二季度則會(huì)出現(xiàn)零增長(zhǎng)。

上述變化表明平衡點(diǎn)正在重新向勞動(dòng)者靠攏。2000年至今,薪酬、工資和獎(jiǎng)金在GDP中的比重從46%降至43%;最近其走勢(shì)開(kāi)始反轉(zhuǎn)。Moody’s Analytics實(shí)時(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)負(fù)責(zé)人瑞安·斯威特說(shuō):“美國(guó)目前有700萬(wàn)個(gè)職位空缺,待業(yè)者平均每人一個(gè)以上?!眲趧?dòng)力供應(yīng)吃緊以及企業(yè)員工離職速度加快使工資上漲了3.1%,是2010年增速的兩倍。通常,這些情況會(huì)不斷給整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)利潤(rùn)壓力,同時(shí)抑制股價(jià)。

但有一位投資者認(rèn)為我們或許已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了可以長(zhǎng)期維持較強(qiáng)盈利能力的新常態(tài),而他正是沃倫·巴菲特,這確實(shí)讓人驚訝。在伯克希爾-哈撒韋的2018年投資者大會(huì)上,巴菲特承認(rèn)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、社交媒體以及數(shù)據(jù)革命已經(jīng)孕育出了“輕資產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)”,推動(dòng)其發(fā)展的是僅憑少量資本就創(chuàng)造出高額利潤(rùn)的大型科技公司。亞馬遜、蘋(píng)果公司、谷歌母公司Alphabet、Facebook和微軟主導(dǎo)著各自的行業(yè),它們強(qiáng)有力的品牌和巨大的規(guī)模提高了單用戶(hù)收入,同時(shí)降低了吸引新用戶(hù)的成本。這五家公司目前占標(biāo)普500指數(shù)利潤(rùn)的12%并非巧合。雖然它們的勞動(dòng)力成本也在上升,但這些公司根本不需要那么多的人手(或者廠房、庫(kù)存)就能使銷(xiāo)售達(dá)到很高的水平。

結(jié)論:和其他行業(yè)的利潤(rùn)率下跌相比,科技巨頭盈利能力的下滑將較為平緩,這還應(yīng)有助于它們?cè)诠墒猩项I(lǐng)跑。美股整體回報(bào)率可能會(huì)低于投資者已經(jīng)習(xí)慣的水平。但如果員工拿了更多工資是股市回報(bào)率下滑的原因之一,那就有希望?!猄hawn Tully(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

本文刊登在2019年5月出版的《財(cái)富》雜志上,題為《解碼市場(chǎng)信號(hào)》(Decoding the Market’s Messages)。

譯者:Charlie

審校:夏林

Corporate Profits

As workers get more, shareholders could get less

For decades, it’s been one of Warren Buffett’s guiding principles: When corporate profits swell to a disproportionately large share of GDP, the Omaha sage has cautioned, the competitive nature of capitalism exercises a gravitational force that pulls them back to historical norms. Profitability shrinks, and stock returns become sluggish, or worse.

If that principle holds true, investors could be facing a rough ride. By some measures, Buffett’s gravitational shift is already underway. U.S. earnings peaked at 11% of GDP in 2012, but in the fourth quarter of 2018, they still accounted for 9.3%, or 2.6 percentage points higher than the 60-year average (see chart), suggesting they have further to fall. Analysts polled by FactSet forecast a year-over-year decline in earnings per share for the S&P 500 of 4.2% in the first quarter, and zero growth in the second.

The change reflects a tipping of the balance back toward labor. Since 2000, the share of GDP going to salaries, wages, and bonuses has dropped from 46% to 43%; lately, that trend is reversing. “America now has 7 million job openings, more than one for every unemployed worker,” says Ryan Sweet of Moody’s Analytics. That tightening labor market and the increased rates at which workers are leaving jobs for new ones are why wages are growing at 3.1%, twice the pace of 2010. Ordinarily, these trends would continue pressuring profits, and suppressing share prices, across the economy.

But there’s one investor who thinks we may have entered a new normal that could sustain higher profitability for a long time—and that investor, surprisingly enough, is Warren ?Buffett. At the 2018 annual investor meeting for Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett acknowledged that the Internet, social media, and data revolutions have spawned an “asset-light economy,” driven by tech giants that generate floods of profits from mere trickles of capital. Amazon, Apple, Google parent Alphabet, Facebook, and Microsoft dominate their industries, and their powerful brands and enormous scale swell their revenues per customer and lower their costs of attracting new ones. It’s not coincidental that those five companies now account for 12% of the S&P 500’s profits. While they, too, face rising labor costs, they don’t need nearly as much labor (or plants, or inventories) to generate hefty sales.

The takeaway: The profitability of the tech titans will decline more gradually than margins in other industries, which should help their stocks outperform too. Overall U.S. stock returns will likely be lower than what investors have grown used to. But if workers pocketing higher wages are a reason for that slowdown, that will be a silver lining. —Shawn Tully

A version of this article appears in the May 2019 issue of Fortune with the headline “Decoding the Market’s Messages.”

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