要避免重蹈Uber覆轍,WeWork 在IPO前必須做三件事
《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》于上周一報(bào)道,共享辦公巨頭The We Company(以前的WeWork)打算在今年晚些時(shí)候上市,而且剛剛宣布了發(fā)債40億美元的計(jì)劃。 本次發(fā)債有兩個(gè)作用——滿(mǎn)足當(dāng)前現(xiàn)金流需求,同時(shí)緩解IPO本身面臨的巨大壓力。報(bào)道指出,實(shí)際上,發(fā)債所籌資金有可能超過(guò)今后幾年WeWork在股市上的融資額,從而向潛在股票投資者表明這家公司還有一條油水較少的途徑來(lái)獲得資金。 這次債券發(fā)行將由高盛和摩根大通(可能還有其他公司)安排,而目前WeWork處于現(xiàn)金流失狀態(tài)。2018年這家辦公場(chǎng)地經(jīng)營(yíng)公司實(shí)現(xiàn)收入18億美元,和Uber披露的收入水平相當(dāng),資金消耗卻達(dá)到了19億美元。 這讓部分潛在投資者暫緩了投資腳步,因?yàn)閁ber和Lyft上市首日不那么精彩的表現(xiàn)依然歷歷在目。這兩家拼車(chē)服務(wù)商都在嚴(yán)重虧損的情況下上市,其股價(jià)也都持續(xù)大幅波動(dòng),因?yàn)樗鼈兌紱](méi)能讓投資者相信自己有清晰的盈利途徑。因此,如果想有所突破,WeWork就需要做下面三件事,以免重蹈覆轍。 更為精細(xì) 證券經(jīng)紀(jì)公司D.A. Davidson的高級(jí)副總裁、高級(jí)研究分析師湯姆·懷特告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“我覺(jué)得WeWork一定可以而且應(yīng)該從Uber和Lyft提交的文件中學(xué)到些東西?!?/p> 懷特認(rèn)為,WeWork需要強(qiáng)調(diào)自己有清晰的前進(jìn)道路,以便投資者對(duì)這家燒錢(qián)的公司抱有信心,特別是在目前將要發(fā)債的情況下。 懷特說(shuō):“對(duì)這些規(guī)模龐大、沒(méi)有利潤(rùn)但能夠在多方面帶來(lái)變革的公司而言,Uber和Lyft IPO的重大教訓(xùn)就是WeWork需要提供更詳細(xì)和精致的路線(xiàn)圖,說(shuō)明自己打算怎樣逐步扭虧為盈?!彼ㄗhWeWork深入探討其市場(chǎng)的單位經(jīng)濟(jì)性并進(jìn)行同期群分析,以便投資者更好地了解自己的潛在投資對(duì)象。 別的分析師也有同樣的看法。 機(jī)構(gòu)研究服務(wù)商、IPO ETF管理公司復(fù)興資本(Renaissance Capital)的負(fù)責(zé)人凱瑟琳·史密斯認(rèn)為“Wework必須”確保投資者了解其盈利模式。她的建議是不要像Uber和Lyft那樣。 Manhattan Venture Partners的研究主管桑托什·拉奧相信,回顧市場(chǎng)接納Lyft和Uber的過(guò)程對(duì)WeWok來(lái)說(shuō)大有裨益,“我想,可以這么說(shuō),他們已經(jīng)看見(jiàn)了那些不祥之兆?!?/p> 拉奧說(shuō),WeWork的模式基本以短期租賃為主,但它已經(jīng)開(kāi)始通過(guò)購(gòu)買(mǎi)寫(xiě)字樓和全球擴(kuò)張來(lái)現(xiàn)實(shí)多元化。同時(shí),隨著負(fù)債的增長(zhǎng)(WeWork去年已經(jīng)舉債約7.02億美元,而且利率高達(dá)7.9%),涉足企業(yè)租賃和長(zhǎng)期出租業(yè)務(wù)將為該公司帶來(lái)持續(xù)性收入,而這可以吸引債券持有人。 同時(shí),分析師認(rèn)為WeWork應(yīng)該從已經(jīng)上市的那些公司身上汲取的第二個(gè)教訓(xùn)是當(dāng)心自己的估值。 恰當(dāng)定價(jià) WeWork的估算市值為470億美元,對(duì)投資者而言這是很高的要價(jià)。投資咨詢(xún)公司Scenic Advisement的董事總經(jīng)理兼首席投資官簡(jiǎn)·梁認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)有了疑問(wèn)。 梁說(shuō):“我覺(jué)得投資者對(duì)這些估值極高的公司真的很小心,而且他們應(yīng)當(dāng)如此?!彼J(rèn)為WeWork需要做到透明,以便“投資者不那么擔(dān)心”這家公司必然會(huì)步Uber和Lyft后塵。 這兩家拼車(chē)服務(wù)公司的股價(jià)一直低于它們較高的首發(fā)價(jià)。梁指出,剛剛嶄露頭角時(shí)的炒作可能把它們IPO前的估值提升到了“過(guò)高”水平。復(fù)興資本的負(fù)責(zé)人史密斯則認(rèn)為,由于燒錢(qián)快,再加上又要發(fā)債,WeWork的估值將受到影響。 史密斯說(shuō):“問(wèn)題在于,他們必須定價(jià)合適。他們得有一定幅度的折價(jià),這樣投資者才不會(huì)那么擔(dān)心它跌破發(fā)行價(jià)?!?/p> 那么怎樣的價(jià)格才合適呢? 梁表示,在她看來(lái),WeWork的股價(jià)或許更接近其二級(jí)市場(chǎng)價(jià)值,這個(gè)數(shù)字約為目前470億美元估值的一半。 多元化 雖然拉奧認(rèn)為當(dāng)前IPO環(huán)境下投資者可能喜歡WeWork這樣的公司,但他堅(jiān)持表示W(wǎng)eWork的業(yè)務(wù)模式“有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”。 WeWork所在的行業(yè)本質(zhì)上高度依賴(lài)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)——拉奧相信,如果出現(xiàn)下行周期,空置率的變化、公司擴(kuò)張和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)都可能給“他們的業(yè)績(jī)帶來(lái)壓力”。 長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)WeWork的經(jīng)營(yíng)模式一直是長(zhǎng)期租下辦公場(chǎng)地,再把它們短租出去。實(shí)際情況表明,在市場(chǎng)格局不斷變化的情況下,這種策略很受歡迎。但拉奧認(rèn)為,WeWork需要在收入多元化方面投入更多資金,途徑是開(kāi)發(fā)出更多長(zhǎng)期收入來(lái)源,比如收購(gòu)更多寫(xiě)字樓,甚至是出租給醫(yī)院或?qū)W校等更傳統(tǒng)的用戶(hù)。 不過(guò),WeWork的會(huì)員(使用WeWork設(shè)備的租戶(hù))已經(jīng)增至40.1萬(wàn),約占該公司收入的88%,對(duì)其服務(wù)的需求顯然非常旺盛。 但I(xiàn)PO前,這家公司需要讓投資者看到它的長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展規(guī)劃,然后再由投資者來(lái)判斷WeWork是否真的行之有效。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)) 譯者:Charlie 審校:夏林 |
Mega office-space rental company The We Company (formerly WeWork) is planning an IPO later this year, and just announced a plan to raise $4 billion in debt in the meantime, the Wall Street Journal reported last Monday. The debt issue serves two functions: To meet immediate cash flow needs, and also to take substantial pressure off the IPO itself. In fact, according to the report, the debt deal could allow WeWork to raise more money than their public debut could over the coming years, and prove to potential stock investors that the company has another, leaner way to access capital. But the debt offering, which will be structured by Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase (potentially among others), comes at a time when WeWork is bleeding cash. The office-space manager burned $1.9 billion on $1.8 billion revenue in 2018—even more than Uber’s reported $1.8 billion for last year. That’s given some potential investors pause, as the memories of Uber and Lyft’s less-than-stellar debuts are still fresh. The ridesharing companies both went public with heavy losses, and both stocks have been volatile as neither have convinced investors they have a clear path to profitability. So if WeWork is to break the mold, here are the three things the company needs to do to avoid a similar fate. Get granular “I think there are definitely some learnings that WeWork could and should take from the Uber and Lyft filings,” Tom White, senior vice president and senior research analyst at D.A. Davidson, told Fortune. For White, WeWork needs to emphasize a clear-cut path forward for investors to have confidence in the cash burning company—especially now that debt will be added to their balance sheet. “The big lessons from the Uber and Lyft IPOs for these very large, unprofitable but transformational companies in many ways is that WeWork needs to provide a more detailed and granular roadmap about how it plans to achieve profitability over time, ” White says. He suggests WeWork provide an in-depth view on the unit economics and cohort analysis of their markets to help give investors a better picture of what they’re getting themselves into. And White isn’t alone. Kathleen Smith, principal at Renaissance Capital, a provider of institutional research and manager of IPO ETFs, thinks it will be “incumbent upon WeWork” to ensure investors understand their profit model—unlike Lyft or Uber did, Smith suggests. This preview of how the market received Lyft and Uber is a major benefit for the workspace company, Santosh Rao, head of research at Manhattan Venture Partners, believes. “I think they’ve seen the writing on the wall, so to speak, ” Rao says. WeWork’s model largely focuses on short-term leases, but the company is beginning to diversify by looking to buy buildings and expand globally, Rao says. And as the company takes on more debt (WeWork already has some $702 million raised last year with a hefty 7.9% interest rate), moving into enterprise renting and long-term leases would provide WeWork with the recurring revenue that is attractive to bond holders, Rao says. But analysts suggest WeWork’s second lesson from those that came before it should be to watch the valuation. Price appropriately With an estimated valuation of $47 billion heading to market, WeWork is asking a lot from investors. And to Jane Leung, the managing director and chief investment officer at Scenic Advisement, the market is already skeptical. “I think investors are really careful around these companies with extremely lofty valuations, and they should be, ” Leung says. She believes WeWork needs to be transparent in order to "alleviate investors’ fear" that the company is doomed to follow in Uber and Lyft’s footsteps. Both ridesharing stocks have since traded below their high IPO prices, and Leung says the hype surrounding the stocks when they first debuted may have pushed their pre-IPO valuations to “l(fā)ofty” heights. With a high burn rate and now new debt, Renaissance Capital’s Smith thinks WeWork’s valuation will be affected. “The issue is, they’ve got to be priced right, ” Smith said. “They’ve got to come at some significant discount for investors to not be so worried that they’ll break the IPO price.” But what’s the right price? From what she’s seen, Leung thinks the stock might trade closer to its value in the secondary markets—which, she says, is about half their current $47 billion valuation. Diversify But while Rao suggests investors in the current IPO climate have an appetite for companies like WeWork, he maintains the company’s business model “is kind of risky.” By nature, WeWork’s industry is heavily dependent on the overall economic market—shifts in vacancy rates, company expansion and economic growth could all put a “strain on their financials” if there is a downturn, Rao believes. WeWork’s model has long been to take on long-term leases and lease them out short-term—a strategy that has proven popular in the shifting workplace landscape. But Rao believes the company will need to invest more in diversifying their revenue streams by developing more long-term revenue sources—such as buying more buildings and even leasing to hospitals or schools with more traditional leases, he says. Still, with an increase in members (those using WeWork’s facilities) to 401,000 accounting for some 88% of their revenue, it’s clear the demand for their services is very much alive. But before an IPO, WeWork needs a plan for investors to see the long-term play—then it will be up to investors to see if WeWork actually works. |