昨夜，美國(guó)股市上響起警報(bào)，然而拉響警報(bào)的只是美國(guó)國(guó)債利率的微小變化。

美國(guó)當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間周三上午，兩年期國(guó)債的利率略高于10年期國(guó)債利率，該現(xiàn)象就是收益率曲線倒掛。

截至收盤，道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)下跌800點(diǎn)，跌幅3.05%。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下跌85.72點(diǎn)，跌幅2.93%。納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)下跌超過242點(diǎn)，跌幅3.02%。

別看唐納德·特朗普今天在推特（Twitter）上吐槽收益率曲線太瘋狂，要真正理解收益率曲線為何變得如此重要，以及此刻發(fā)送的信號(hào)是真是假，其實(shí)并不容易。

收益率曲線是比較不同期限國(guó)債利率的方法，比如說美國(guó)國(guó)債。在正常市場(chǎng)中，長(zhǎng)期債券的利率（也就是收益率）應(yīng)該高于短期債券的利率，因?yàn)橥顿Y者買長(zhǎng)期債券要鎖定更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間，期望獲得更高回報(bào)。

收益率曲線是不同期限的利率圖，比如3個(gè)月、6個(gè)月、一年、兩年、五年、10年、30年等等。各個(gè)點(diǎn)連接成線變成曲線。下圖就是例子，反映了2019年8月13日的收益率。

Alarms were going off in the stock market today. And what pulled the cord was a slight change in the interest rates of Treasurys.

Early Wednesday morning, the interest rate on a 2-year Treasury was slightly higher than the interest on a 10-year, an event called a yield curve inversion.

By market close, the Dow industrials were off 800 points, or 3.05%. The S&P 500 was down 85.72 points, which is 2.93%. And the Nasdaq lost more than 242 points, or 3.02%.

But understanding why the yield curve has gained such importance—even Donald Trump tweeted about the CRAZY YIELD CURVE today—and whether it’s sending true or false signals at the moment, is a little complicated.

Yield curves are a way of comparing the interest rates of the different maturity-date bonds a country issues—like U.S. Treasurys. In a normal market, interest rates (called yields) for longer-term bonds should be higher than those for shorter-term ones, because investors tie their money up for a longer time and want a greater reward for doing so.

The yield curve is a graph of the interest rates for varying maturities: like 3-months, 6-months, 1-year, 2-years, 5-years, 10-year, 30-year, and so on. A line is drawn through the plotted points to show a curve. Below is an example for the yields on Aug. 13, 2019.

即便沒有出現(xiàn)10年期收益率短暫略低于兩年期，該收益率曲線也不正常。

收益率曲線倒掛

通常曲線會(huì)向上彎曲，因?yàn)閳D左側(cè)的短期債券到期收益率通常低于右側(cè)的長(zhǎng)期到期收益率。

然而有時(shí)短期債券的收益率比長(zhǎng)期債券高，導(dǎo)致曲線向下彎曲。這被稱為收益率曲線倒掛，因?yàn)榕c人們通常期望的相反。

倒掛之所以重要，因?yàn)樵摤F(xiàn)象是判斷經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來的重要指標(biāo)。短期利率高于長(zhǎng)期利率時(shí)，表明未來可能出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，因?yàn)槭找媛蕯?shù)字顯示投資者認(rèn)為短期經(jīng)濟(jì)比長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)更有把握。

這種情況下，曲線不會(huì)平滑向上，也不會(huì)明顯下滑，而是中間出現(xiàn)凹陷，而且不只持續(xù)一分鐘。

之前的倒掛

“通常來說，倒掛發(fā)生在衰退12到18個(gè)月之前?！?Regency Wealth Management公司的合伙人安德魯·阿蘭表示。但倒掛只是指標(biāo)之一，最近幾次倒掛時(shí)，之后實(shí)際出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的幾率只有三分之二。

今天的倒掛與過去還不一樣。“二戰(zhàn)以來美國(guó)每一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退之前，除了2007年以來的經(jīng)濟(jì)大衰退，都出現(xiàn)過美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息太多太快，遠(yuǎn)高于當(dāng)前水平的水平?！瘪R里蘭大學(xué)的金融學(xué)教授大衛(wèi)·卡斯冷靜地分析道?？ㄋ狗Q大衰退的例子“獨(dú)一無二”，主要根源是“房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)債務(wù)過多，樓市和經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰”。

但美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)剛剛宣布降息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)，投資者預(yù)計(jì)到今年年底還會(huì)小幅降息多達(dá)三次。至于債務(wù)方面，“各板塊都沒有出現(xiàn)債務(wù)過多的跡象。”卡斯表示。

到底發(fā)生了什么？

上面圖表中并未明確顯示出倒掛。超短期利率為2.05%，五年期降至1.57%的低點(diǎn)，30年期升至2.15%。長(zhǎng)期收益率略高于短期收益率。但兩年期至10年期的收益率很低。

“一般來說，有一點(diǎn)不同的是曲線整體呈平緩趨勢(shì)。”Aviva Investors的投資組合經(jīng)理蒂姆·阿爾特表示。長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì)方面，人們預(yù)期不一定出現(xiàn)問題，但對(duì)中期前景感到緊張?！耙环N解釋是，市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為景氣周期放緩的可能性較低，但最終將陷入衰退的可能性較高。”他說。還有人擔(dān)心，央行在刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)方面可能已經(jīng)無計(jì)可施?！爸档藐P(guān)注的是，市場(chǎng)越發(fā)相信財(cái)政政策是唯一能起推動(dòng)作用的手段。”阿爾特說。

這意味著政治家們應(yīng)該合作并采取有效措施，可能涉及到采取投入資金刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)。但合作很難實(shí)現(xiàn)。

其他問題

市場(chǎng)的反應(yīng)則讓許多人困惑。

“理解債券市場(chǎng)反彈很容易理解。” Wedbush Securities的投資組合經(jīng)理史蒂夫·馬紹卡表示?！安贿^股市下跌很奇怪，而且是各板塊集體跳水。”

“今天（銀行股）遭大舉拋售，但貸款定價(jià)對(duì)短期利率更敏感。”實(shí)際情況是短期利率堅(jiān)挺，阿蘭表示?！斑@可能是另一種過度反應(yīng)，一早就把銀行打倒在地?！?/p>

可能根本原因還是神經(jīng)緊張。與中國(guó)和歐盟的貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端讓許多人恐懼。歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)整體放緩，歐洲和日本仍然維持負(fù)利率。隨著收益率曲線倒掛，市場(chǎng)似乎把所有事都當(dāng)成壞消息。

不管是過度悲觀，還是投資者神經(jīng)過敏，都在將市場(chǎng)推向真正的衰退。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Feb

This is not a normal yield curve, even without a brief time where the 10-year yield was a little lower than the 2-year.

Yield curve inversion

Typically, the curve bends upwards because the shorter-term maturities on the left of the graph have lower yields than the long-term maturities toward the right.

However, sometimes shorter-term maturities offer higher yields than longer-term ones, resulting in the curve sloping downward from left to right. That’s called a yield curve inversion, because it does the opposite of what people typically expect.

Inversion is important because of its status as an indicator of coming economic recessions. When short-term rates are higher than long term, it indicates the potential for a future recession because the numbers indicate that investors think the short-term economy is a better bet than the long term.

In this case, instead of a clear climb one way or the other, there’s a dip in the middle—more on that in a minute.

Past inversions

“Typically these inversions occur 12 to 18 months before a recession,” said Andrew Aran, a partner at Regency Wealth Management. But an inversion is just an indicator, as in recent times, only two-thirds of them have actually come before a recession.

But the inversion today is different from the past. “Every recession that we’ve had in the U.S. since World War II, with one exception of the Great Recession, was preceded by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates too far, too fast from much higher levels than the current levels,” said David Kass, clinical professor of finance at the University of Maryland. The Great Recession, which Kass called “one of a kind,” was the result of “an excessive amount of debt in the housing market and the collapse of the housing market and the economy.”

But the Fed just dropped the rate by 0.25% and investors expect as many as three more small cuts by the end of the year. As for debt, “I don’t see an excessive amount of debt in any sector,” Kass said.

What’s going on?

The pattern of the graph above is also not a clear inversion. Very short-term rates start at 2.05%, drop to a low of 1.57% for the 5-year, and then climb to 2.15% for the 30-year. The long-term yield is a bit above the shortest-term. But yields on the 2-year through 10-year are low.

“Generally speaking is what is a little different is a broad flattening across the curve,” said Tim Alt, portfolio manager at Aviva Investors. People may not expect trouble in the long run but are nervous about medium-term prospects. “One way to interpret that is the market is pricing in lower odds that this is a mid-cycle slowdown and higher odds that it is going to end up in a recession,” he said. There is also worry that central banks may have run out of tricks to stimulate the economy. “The concern is that the market is moving toward believing that fiscal policy is the only thing to move the needle,” Alt said.

That means getting politicians to cooperate and forge useful actions that probably involve spending money to stimulate the economy. Such cooperation is going to be hard to find.

Other concerns

But the market’s response has left many scratching their heads.

“I certainly understand the rally in [bonds],” said Steve Massocca, portfolio manager at Wedbush Securities. “The decline in equities is a mystery. And it’s across the board.”

“[Bank stocks] are being sold aggressively today, but their pricing on their loans is more sensitive to short rates” and short rates are holding, Aran said. “That seems to be possibly another over reaction, taking the banks behind the woodshed at an early point.”

It may all come down to a case of nerves. Trade disputes with China and the EU are scaring many. Economies across Europe have slowed, with negative interest rates still in place there and in Japan. The markets seem primed to take everything at the moment as bad news, as the yield curve enters new territory.

Either that or jittery investors are about to talk themselves into a recession.