對(duì)于梅西能否百貨實(shí)現(xiàn)外界期待已久的復(fù)蘇，華爾街的信心正在減弱。

上周三，這家連鎖百貨商場(chǎng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商下調(diào)了2019年調(diào)整后利潤(rùn)，原因是不受顧客歡迎的商品大幅減值，其股價(jià)因此一度下挫18%。自今年年初以來(lái)，梅西百貨的市值已經(jīng)蒸發(fā)近60%。

公司同時(shí)披露，包括授權(quán)百貨商場(chǎng)在內(nèi)，第二季度可比銷(xiāo)售額僅增長(zhǎng)0.3%，雖然可以宣稱銷(xiāo)售額繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，但并無(wú)實(shí)際意義。相反，由于消費(fèi)開(kāi)支環(huán)境良好，這表明塔吉特、T.J. Maxx和Ulta Beauty等公司仍然在奪取梅西百貨的市場(chǎng)份額。

梅西百貨高管將此歸咎于今年5月的糟糕天氣以及該公司、特別是其自有品牌女性運(yùn)動(dòng)服飾業(yè)務(wù)“錯(cuò)過(guò)流行趨勢(shì)”等等因素。首席執(zhí)行官杰夫·根內(nèi)特告訴《財(cái)富》雜志，雖然必須表現(xiàn)的更好，但這些問(wèn)題是“時(shí)尚行業(yè)變幻莫測(cè)”的一部分。

但就算變幻莫測(cè)，如果梅西百貨想奪回市場(chǎng)份額，它的自有服裝品牌顯然需要做出改善，而且是大幅改善。自有品牌（包括家居用品）幾乎占梅西百貨業(yè)務(wù)量的三分之一，該公司也把今后的很大一部分希望寄托在自有品牌上。

塔吉特在服裝領(lǐng)域的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)給梅西百貨帶來(lái)了更多壓力——它大膽地放棄了一系列規(guī)模大而且穩(wěn)定的品牌，并通過(guò)代替前者的新品牌取得了巨大成功。根內(nèi)特承認(rèn)，梅西百貨的一些服裝品牌需要“進(jìn)行調(diào)整”，但他對(duì)重振這些品牌有“信心”。

應(yīng)該關(guān)閉更多門(mén)店或者壓縮規(guī)模嗎？

梅西百貨面臨的另一重大挑戰(zhàn)是，除了曼哈頓和舊金山等一線市場(chǎng)中的主要門(mén)店，該公司600家店鋪中的大部分應(yīng)該怎樣處理。在可比銷(xiāo)售額（包括電子商務(wù)）上升以及數(shù)字銷(xiāo)售額連續(xù)40個(gè)季度增逾10%的情況下，顯然可以看出梅西百貨的門(mén)店業(yè)務(wù)正在滑坡，客流量呈下降趨勢(shì)。

近幾年在根內(nèi)特治下梅西百貨已經(jīng)關(guān)閉了100多家門(mén)店。但長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)他一直表示，只要能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)正現(xiàn)金流，即便銷(xiāo)售額下降的店鋪也有價(jià)值，因?yàn)檎F(xiàn)金流表明這些店鋪的流入資金比流出的多。

的確，門(mén)店可以反映出一個(gè)市場(chǎng)的前景，而關(guān)閉門(mén)店后，梅西百貨就永遠(yuǎn)失去了一大塊業(yè)務(wù)。根內(nèi)特說(shuō)：“我們知道關(guān)店就等于逐客?！?/p>

此外，許多地區(qū)性門(mén)店都是梅西百貨龐大電商業(yè)務(wù)的關(guān)鍵節(jié)點(diǎn)。此項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)每年可帶來(lái)60億美元的收入，而這些門(mén)店可以把商品遞送給顧客或者其他店鋪，還能夠?yàn)橘?gòu)物者提供客戶服務(wù)。

根內(nèi)特說(shuō)：“我不反對(duì)進(jìn)一步關(guān)店，我只是想保證在這樣做時(shí)我考慮到了所有顧客?！?/p>

但這些門(mén)店通常設(shè)在經(jīng)營(yíng)成本較高的較偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)，而不是郊區(qū)。因此，還無(wú)法確定為電商提供支持這個(gè)理由是否足以繼續(xù)保留其中的許多店鋪。根內(nèi)特承認(rèn)，梅西百貨正在考慮縮小其中許多門(mén)店的面積，同時(shí)更多地采用自助服務(wù)模式，以便控制成本。

此外，除一線門(mén)店外，梅西百貨的許多店鋪都沒(méi)有得到足夠的維護(hù)，那里銷(xiāo)售的衣物都被丟在了地上，墻壁也需要粉刷，這和許多公司所知的實(shí)體店必須為顧客提供的“體驗(yàn)式購(gòu)物”大相徑庭。很難看出讓任何店鋪?zhàn)兊闷茢?duì)品牌有什么好處。

Wall Street is losing faith that Macy’s can pull off a long-awaited comeback.

The department store chain’s stock tanked as much as 18% on last Wednesday, after cutting its 2019 adjusted profit on the heels of huge markdowns on products that flopped with customers. This year, Macy’s has lost nearly 60% of its stock market value.

Macy’s also reported a meager 0.3% increase in second-quarter comparable sales, including licensed departments, allowing the company an empty victory of being able to crow about continued sales growth. But in a healthy consumer spending environment, it suggests Macy’s continues to lose market share to the likes of Target, T.J. Maxx, and Ulta Beauty.

Executives pinned the blame on factors like bad weather in May and on “fashion misses” in its women’s sportswear business, particularly its own brands. Macy’s CEO Jeff Gennette told Fortune that while the company had to do better, these problems are part of “the vagaries of being in the fashion business.”

But vagaries aside, it is clear Macy’s will have to do better, much better, with its own clothing brands if it wants to win back market share. The company gets almost a third of business from its brands (including home goods) and is betting a good chunk of its future on those private labels.

Target’s strong performance in apparel is adding to the pressure. That company has boldly eliminated a number of large-but-stale brands and found enormous success in the new names replacing them. Gennette acknowledged some of Macy’s clothing brands need to be “rejiggered” but said he had “confidence” Macy’s will revitalize the brands.

Should more stores close, or downsize?

Another big challenge for Macy’s is what to do with the bulk of its 600-store fleet, beyond the marquee stores it operates in top markets like Manhattan and San Francisco. With comparable sales up (which includes e-commerce) and digital sales rising more than 10% for the 40th quarter in a row, the math makes it clear that business in its stores is down and that fewer shoppers are coming for a visit.

Gennette, who oversaw the closing of more than 100 stores a couple of years ago, has long argued that even stores with declining sales are valuable, provided they have positive cash flow, meaning they take in more money than they need.

Indeed, stores provide a visibility in a market and when one closes, Macy’s permanently loses a big chunk of business. “We know that when we close the store, we’re firing customers,” Gennette said.

What’s more, many of these regional stores are crucial as nodes in Macy’s massive e-commerce operation—a $6 billion a year business— that can ship items to customers, to other stores, and where shoppers can get customer service.

“I’m not opposed to closing more doors, I just want to make sure that I’ve considered the full customer in that,” said Gennette.

But such facilities are typically in more remote areas rather than in suburbs, where doing business is more costly. Consequently, it’s an open question whether e-commerce support is enough of a justification to keep many locations open. Gennette conceded that Macy’s is looking at reduced square footage at many of these stores, along with more self-service to keep costs in check.

What’s more, many Macy’s stores beyond its top stores are inadequately maintained, with clothes strewn on the floor, and the walls in need of paint, a far cry from the “experiential retail” many companies know they need to offer shoppers to get them to physical locations. It’s hard to see how letting any stores become shabby adds to the brand ultimately.

發(fā)揮自身優(yōu)勢(shì)

梅西百貨需要改進(jìn)的地方很多，而根內(nèi)特說(shuō)正在起作用的因素會(huì)讓梅西百貨在第四季度有好的表現(xiàn)。

該公司有出色的電商業(yè)務(wù)、忠實(shí)的客戶群體、開(kāi)端良好的純網(wǎng)絡(luò)品牌（目前有50萬(wàn)件商品），以及對(duì)供應(yīng)商的巨大影響力（盡管有可能正在減弱）。梅西百貨的珠寶首飾和男士業(yè)務(wù)在近幾個(gè)季度一直表現(xiàn)的很好。但這些顯然還不夠。

根內(nèi)特說(shuō)：“所有方案都在我們的考慮范圍內(nèi)?！比绻胱罱K重現(xiàn)實(shí)質(zhì)性增長(zhǎng)，而不是無(wú)關(guān)痛癢的提升，梅西百貨就得考慮所有的辦法。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Playing to Macy’s strengths

Macy’s has a lot to build on, and Gennette said things were in play that will let the chain have a good holiday quarter.

The company boasts a stellar e-commerce operation, a loyal clientele, a promising start to website-only brands (currently, the assortment of such merchandise is 500,000 items), and enormous (although possibly eroding) clout with vendors. Its jewelry and men’s business enjoyed good quarters. But all that is clearly not enough.

“All is on the table,” Gennette said. And all needs to be if Macy’s is to finally reignite growth in a meaningful way beyond some anemic increases.