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工人距離“被自動(dòng)化”,或只剩一線之隔

Chris Morris
2021-01-20

新冠疫情加速了企業(yè)自動(dòng)化計(jì)劃的實(shí)施,工人的工作或?qū)⒚媾R進(jìn)一步的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

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對(duì)工人們來說,自動(dòng)化早已算不上什么新威脅。早在新冠疫情擾亂正常生產(chǎn)之前,許多高管就已經(jīng)在改變企業(yè)組裝產(chǎn)品的方式。除了制造業(yè),其他行業(yè)也已經(jīng)考慮效仿。

但如今,隨著全球性危機(jī)揮之不去,蔓延的疫情可能會(huì)加速這一轉(zhuǎn)變。

埃默里大學(xué)戈伊祖塔商學(xué)院(Emory University’s Goizueta Business School)的金融學(xué)副教授湯姆?史密斯說:“每每計(jì)劃被擾亂,人們就會(huì)被迫做出決定。我會(huì)為此買單,這至少可以加快決策過程。當(dāng)突然陷入危機(jī)時(shí),聰明而富有創(chuàng)造力的人會(huì)找到解決方案。只要他們有辦法,他們就不會(huì)放任危機(jī)毀掉一切。”

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(World Economic Forum)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在美國,有近40%的工作面臨“被自動(dòng)化”的顯著風(fēng)險(xiǎn),超過10%的工作處于高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之中。而其他幾個(gè)國家的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平要更高。

從長期來看,員工們將就此去學(xué)習(xí)新的核心技能,如分析、批判性思維,增強(qiáng)創(chuàng)造力;但從短期來看,可能會(huì)困難重重——對(duì)于那些被迫無薪休假或臨時(shí)下崗的人來說,這一方案可能并不受歡迎。

“人們應(yīng)該做出的行為和人們實(shí)際做出的行為,是有區(qū)別的。”史密斯說,“公司曾經(jīng)對(duì)員工負(fù)有責(zé)任,但現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)不是這樣了。工人是一次性的。一旦實(shí)現(xiàn)了自動(dòng)化,公司對(duì)工人就沒有任何責(zé)任了。我不是說這是對(duì)的,也代表這是道德的。這只是一個(gè)事實(shí)。一旦員工被解雇,公司就自認(rèn)為沒有任何責(zé)任來照顧他們,他們將會(huì)收到一張解雇通知書和一塊蛋糕,僅此而已?!?/p>

當(dāng)然,與技術(shù)的使用和設(shè)計(jì)有關(guān)的技能,將越來越凸顯價(jià)值,比如自動(dòng)化系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計(jì)就囊括其中。但是,全球疫情持續(xù)蔓延,導(dǎo)致工人們無法快速學(xué)習(xí)、領(lǐng)悟這些新知識(shí),對(duì)工人們的威脅只會(huì)增加。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇表示:“數(shù)字技能不足,不僅阻礙了(信息和通信技術(shù))的傳播,還加劇了自動(dòng)化帶來的失業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織(OECD)的27個(gè)國家中,有16個(gè)國家的數(shù)字技能得分在過去四年有所下降,使得工人們更加難以過渡到新的工作崗位中?!?/p>

不過自動(dòng)化也不像一年前那么可怕了。新冠疫情讓“機(jī)器負(fù)責(zé)”的好處得以凸顯,人類可以專注于更重要的議題,更實(shí)現(xiàn)了社交距離保護(hù)。

但是,過去一年中人們所關(guān)注的一些社會(huì)問題并不能得到徹底消除。相反,在一些專家看來,有些問題可能更嚴(yán)重了。

“技術(shù)變革帶來的生產(chǎn)力和效率收益將對(duì)社會(huì)產(chǎn)生積極影響,但這并不意味我們可以完全放松警惕?!辈剪斀鹚箤W(xué)會(huì)(Brookings Institution)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究項(xiàng)目的非常駐研究員馬庫斯?凱西上月在一篇博客文章中寫道,“自動(dòng)化和人工智能的進(jìn)步有可能放大我們社會(huì)目前面臨的諸多挑戰(zhàn),例如收入和財(cái)富不平等、企業(yè)權(quán)力集中、向上流動(dòng)性下降,以及一直存在的殘疾、性別和種族歧視等問題?!?/p>

疫情讓一些行業(yè)迅速倒閉,許多公司因此或?qū)⒏屑?xì)地審視自己當(dāng)下及未來幾年的資本結(jié)構(gòu)。許多高管正在考慮是否應(yīng)該用自動(dòng)化取代員工,這樣一來,即便是一場新的流行病來襲,他們的公司就能夠免于倒閉的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

“這樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)混亂使許多公司有額外的助推力去重新審視他們開展業(yè)務(wù)的方式?!笔访芩拐f,“毫無疑問,這種力量強(qiáng)而有力。我必須相信,這種經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩正使許多公司重新評(píng)估它們的生產(chǎn)過程。”

對(duì)員工們來說,也有一個(gè)好消息:自動(dòng)化不是一時(shí)興起、頭腦一熱就可以入局的東西。新冠疫情影響了許多公司的收入,而向自動(dòng)化過渡需要大量的資金支出。從本質(zhì)上說,公司需要從長遠(yuǎn)來看節(jié)省成本,即用一種費(fèi)用替代另一種費(fèi)用。

盡管自動(dòng)化正在從制造業(yè)擴(kuò)展到食品服務(wù)、雜貨店和客服中心等各個(gè)領(lǐng)域,但在有些行業(yè),員工們大可放心,他們不會(huì)被技術(shù)取代。

史密斯說:“如果你在一家實(shí)體酒吧工作,顧客來這里只是因?yàn)橄矚g爆米花和酒保,在這種情況下,自動(dòng)化反而會(huì)讓酒吧生意無以為繼。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:楊二一

對(duì)工人們來說,自動(dòng)化早已算不上什么新威脅。早在新冠疫情擾亂正常生產(chǎn)之前,許多高管就已經(jīng)在改變企業(yè)組裝產(chǎn)品的方式。除了制造業(yè),其他行業(yè)也已經(jīng)考慮效仿。

但如今,隨著全球性危機(jī)揮之不去,蔓延的疫情可能會(huì)加速這一轉(zhuǎn)變。

埃默里大學(xué)戈伊祖塔商學(xué)院(Emory University’s Goizueta Business School)的金融學(xué)副教授湯姆?史密斯說:“每每計(jì)劃被擾亂,人們就會(huì)被迫做出決定。我會(huì)為此買單,這至少可以加快決策過程。當(dāng)突然陷入危機(jī)時(shí),聰明而富有創(chuàng)造力的人會(huì)找到解決方案。只要他們有辦法,他們就不會(huì)放任危機(jī)毀掉一切?!?/p>

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(World Economic Forum)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在美國,有近40%的工作面臨“被自動(dòng)化”的顯著風(fēng)險(xiǎn),超過10%的工作處于高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之中。而其他幾個(gè)國家的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平要更高。

從長期來看,員工們將就此去學(xué)習(xí)新的核心技能,如分析、批判性思維,增強(qiáng)創(chuàng)造力;但從短期來看,可能會(huì)困難重重——對(duì)于那些被迫無薪休假或臨時(shí)下崗的人來說,這一方案可能并不受歡迎。

“人們應(yīng)該做出的行為和人們實(shí)際做出的行為,是有區(qū)別的。”史密斯說,“公司曾經(jīng)對(duì)員工負(fù)有責(zé)任,但現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)不是這樣了。工人是一次性的。一旦實(shí)現(xiàn)了自動(dòng)化,公司對(duì)工人就沒有任何責(zé)任了。我不是說這是對(duì)的,也代表這是道德的。這只是一個(gè)事實(shí)。一旦員工被解雇,公司就自認(rèn)為沒有任何責(zé)任來照顧他們,他們將會(huì)收到一張解雇通知書和一塊蛋糕,僅此而已?!?/p>

當(dāng)然,與技術(shù)的使用和設(shè)計(jì)有關(guān)的技能,將越來越凸顯價(jià)值,比如自動(dòng)化系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計(jì)就囊括其中。但是,全球疫情持續(xù)蔓延,導(dǎo)致工人們無法快速學(xué)習(xí)、領(lǐng)悟這些新知識(shí),對(duì)工人們的威脅只會(huì)增加。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇表示:“數(shù)字技能不足,不僅阻礙了(信息和通信技術(shù))的傳播,還加劇了自動(dòng)化帶來的失業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織(OECD)的27個(gè)國家中,有16個(gè)國家的數(shù)字技能得分在過去四年有所下降,使得工人們更加難以過渡到新的工作崗位中?!?/p>

不過自動(dòng)化也不像一年前那么可怕了。新冠疫情讓“機(jī)器負(fù)責(zé)”的好處得以凸顯,人類可以專注于更重要的議題,更實(shí)現(xiàn)了社交距離保護(hù)。

但是,過去一年中人們所關(guān)注的一些社會(huì)問題并不能得到徹底消除。相反,在一些專家看來,有些問題可能更嚴(yán)重了。

“技術(shù)變革帶來的生產(chǎn)力和效率收益將對(duì)社會(huì)產(chǎn)生積極影響,但這并不意味我們可以完全放松警惕?!辈剪斀鹚箤W(xué)會(huì)(Brookings Institution)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究項(xiàng)目的非常駐研究員馬庫斯?凱西上月在一篇博客文章中寫道,“自動(dòng)化和人工智能的進(jìn)步有可能放大我們社會(huì)目前面臨的諸多挑戰(zhàn),例如收入和財(cái)富不平等、企業(yè)權(quán)力集中、向上流動(dòng)性下降,以及一直存在的殘疾、性別和種族歧視等問題?!?/p>

疫情讓一些行業(yè)迅速倒閉,許多公司因此或?qū)⒏屑?xì)地審視自己當(dāng)下及未來幾年的資本結(jié)構(gòu)。許多高管正在考慮是否應(yīng)該用自動(dòng)化取代員工,這樣一來,即便是一場新的流行病來襲,他們的公司就能夠免于倒閉的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

“這樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)混亂使許多公司有額外的助推力去重新審視他們開展業(yè)務(wù)的方式?!笔访芩拐f,“毫無疑問,這種力量強(qiáng)而有力。我必須相信,這種經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩正使許多公司重新評(píng)估它們的生產(chǎn)過程?!?/p>

對(duì)員工們來說,也有一個(gè)好消息:自動(dòng)化不是一時(shí)興起、頭腦一熱就可以入局的東西。新冠疫情影響了許多公司的收入,而向自動(dòng)化過渡需要大量的資金支出。從本質(zhì)上說,公司需要從長遠(yuǎn)來看節(jié)省成本,即用一種費(fèi)用替代另一種費(fèi)用。

盡管自動(dòng)化正在從制造業(yè)擴(kuò)展到食品服務(wù)、雜貨店和客服中心等各個(gè)領(lǐng)域,但在有些行業(yè),員工們大可放心,他們不會(huì)被技術(shù)取代。

史密斯說:“如果你在一家實(shí)體酒吧工作,顧客來這里只是因?yàn)橄矚g爆米花和酒保,在這種情況下,自動(dòng)化反而會(huì)讓酒吧生意無以為繼。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:楊二一

Automation is hardly a new threat to workers. Long before the arrival of COVID-19 disrupted businesses, many manufacturing executives were already changing how their companies assembled products, and other industries were considering following suit.

But as the global crisis has dragged on, the pandemic could be accelerating that shift.

“Every time there’s a disruption it forces people to make decisions,” says Tom Smith, an associate professor of finance at Emory University’s Goizueta Business School. “I would put money on the fact that this has sped up at least the decision-making process. When, all of a sudden, you’re in a crisis, smart and creative people find solutions. Creative people don’t let the crisis take everything down if they can help it.”

Just under 40% of U.S. jobs are at significant risk of being automated, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF). More than 10% of the country’s jobs are at high risk. Several other countries are at notably higher levels.

Long term, that could mean a workforce with new core skills, including analytical and critical thinking and enhanced creativity, but the short term could be a lot rockier—news that likely isn’t welcome to people who have already been furloughed or temporarily laid off.

“There’s a difference between how people behave and how they should behave,” says Smith. “Companies used to have responsibilities to their workers. That’s just not the case anymore. Workers are disposable. So, once you automate, you have zero responsibility to the workers. I’m not saying that’s right or the ethical thing, but companies just don’t feel they have any responsibility for their workers once they’ve been displaced. The truth is that workers are going to get a pink slip and a sheet cake.”

The most valuable skills, of course, will be tied to the use and design of technology, including those automation systems. But the public health crisis has disrupted an already slow uptake in those worldwide. That only increases the threat to workers.

“The lack of adequate digital skills not only hampers the diffusion of [information and communications technology] but also exacerbates the risk of job losses related to automation,” said the WEF. “In 16 of 27 OECD [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development] countries, digital skills scores have declined over the past four years, making it more difficult for workers to transition to new roles.”

Automation isn’t as scary as it was a year ago. The pandemic has highlighted the advantages of delegating some responsibilities to machines, letting humans focus on more important issues and allowing for more social distancing.

It won’t, though, erase some of the societal problems that have come into focus in the past year—and, some experts warn, it could intensify them.

“The productivity and efficiency gains of technological change will be a net positive for society. However, this does not mean we have no reason for concern,” wrote Marcus Casey, a nonresident fellow in the economic studies program at the Brookings Institution in a blog post last month. “Advances in automation and A.I. have the potential to magnify many of the challenges currently facing our society: income and wealth inequality, concentration of corporate power, reduced upward mobility, and persistent disability, gender, and racial discrimination.”

Given how fast the pandemic shut down certain industries, many companies could be taking a much closer look at their capital structure—and what it’s going to look like in years to come. And the question on many executive minds is whether they should consider replacing employees with automation, if only so their company doesn’t have to shut down completely should another pandemic arise.

“When you have a disruption in the economy like this, it gives lots of corporations an extra nudge to reexamine how they go about doing business,” says Smith. “There’s no doubt that nudge has been a really strong rib breaker this time. I have to believe this economic disruption is causing lots of companies to reevaluate what their production process looks like.”

The good news for employees is that automation isn’t something that can be entered into on a whim. The coronavirus has impacted revenues at a wide swath of companies, and there’s a significant capital outlay to transitioning to an automated system. Companies, in essence, substitute one set of expenses for another, with an eye on the long-term savings.

And while automation is expanding beyond manufacturing to everything from food service to grocery stores to call centers, there are some businesses where the workers can rest fairly easy they won’t be replaced by technology.

“If you’re a brick-and-mortar bar, and people come because they like the popcorn and bartender, there’s no amount of automation that can keep that bar in business,” says Smith.

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