薩蒂亞·納德拉領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的微軟(Microsoft),已經(jīng)不再是比爾·蓋茨和史蒂夫·鮑爾默當(dāng)年執(zhí)掌的那家公司。
在某種程度上,這是因?yàn)樯w茨和鮑爾默錯(cuò)過了計(jì)算領(lǐng)域的一些大趨勢,比如智能手機(jī)。在個(gè)人電腦(PC)時(shí)代,微軟坐擁無與倫比的統(tǒng)治地位,它就像是一座高墻環(huán)繞、大炮林立的城堡,可以利用Windows擊退各路競爭對手。在那些日子里,這家公司最臭名昭著的策略被戲稱為“擁抱、擴(kuò)展和消滅”:微軟屢屢把競爭對手開發(fā)的新功能和新應(yīng)用融入到Windows中,然后以這些競爭對手無法比擬的方式對其進(jìn)行升級(jí)改造。但這種粗暴做派也讓微軟惹上了一身官司,并最終引發(fā)了1998年的反壟斷大案。
然而,在移動(dòng)時(shí)代,微軟不再擁有固若金湯的城堡。谷歌(Google)和蘋果(Apple)控制著數(shù)十億部手機(jī)上的操作系統(tǒng)軟件。是的,這個(gè)時(shí)代的高墻和大炮歸它們所有。順便說一句,這兩家公司也引發(fā)了當(dāng)年讓微軟陷入麻煩的競爭和反壟斷擔(dān)憂。納德拉獲得公司最高職位的部分原因是,微軟錯(cuò)失移動(dòng)時(shí)代并不是他的錯(cuò),他也不會(huì)像其他高管那樣,被Windows部門日漸衰落的影響力所束縛。他掌管的微軟云計(jì)算平臺(tái)Azure不得不死磕云端的衛(wèi)兵長——亞馬遜網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)(Amazon Web Services)。
那么,在后智能手機(jī)時(shí)代的輪廓逐漸形成之際,納德拉將如何競爭呢?
上周,微軟給我遞來一款HoloLens 2全息眼鏡,并邀請我參加一場堪稱虛擬的會(huì)議。這讓我有機(jī)會(huì)了解這位掌門人的戰(zhàn)略。
三位與會(huì)者身處不同的城市,都戴著HoloLens。我們借助微軟剛剛發(fā)布的Mesh混合現(xiàn)實(shí)服務(wù),通過互聯(lián)網(wǎng)連接在一起。環(huán)顧我的辦公室,我能夠看到另外兩位與會(huì)者的卡通形象亦步亦趨地仿照這兩人在各自辦公室來回走動(dòng)的樣子。在我面前一張?zhí)摂M會(huì)議桌的上空,漂浮著兩個(gè)數(shù)字海洋生物。我可以伸出手來移動(dòng)它們,更仔細(xì)地觀察它們,或者將其拉大。
令人驚奇的是,當(dāng)我這么做的時(shí)候,其他與會(huì)者能夠清楚地看到我對虛擬的水母和鯊魚做了些什么。正如我說的那樣,一切看起來都有點(diǎn)卡通化,但位置追蹤和實(shí)時(shí)移動(dòng)都非常準(zhǔn)確——除非有人點(diǎn)錯(cuò)了菜單項(xiàng),意外退出。
這里的關(guān)鍵其實(shí)并不是HoloLens硬件。事實(shí)上,微軟正在讓Mesh與盡可能多的裝備兼容,包括蘋果的Mac電腦和Facebook的Oculus VR頭戴式顯示器。Mesh服務(wù)本身并不是消費(fèi)者或企業(yè)用戶將要使用的。它更像是一種管道服務(wù),任何應(yīng)用開發(fā)者都可以利用它來構(gòu)建這種虛擬的、實(shí)時(shí)的協(xié)作能力。真正神奇的事情發(fā)生在Azure的云服務(wù)器。這些服務(wù)器正在跟蹤虛擬會(huì)議空間中的所有人和事,并計(jì)算如何毫無延遲地把它們展示給每位參與者。
3月2日,納德拉亮相微軟Ignite大會(huì),并在Mesh服務(wù)的啟動(dòng)儀式上發(fā)表主題演講?!艾F(xiàn)在到了我們反思的時(shí)候了。我們必須得搞清楚未來十年的云技術(shù)將如何演變,這個(gè)瞬息萬變的世界需要從云端獲得什么樣的創(chuàng)新?!彼f。
這很聰明,原因有二。首先,沒有人認(rèn)為微軟會(huì)在開發(fā)混合現(xiàn)實(shí)和虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)硬件的競賽中獲勝。3月2日,在微軟利用HoloLens公開展示其Mesh服務(wù)之后,《個(gè)人電腦雜志》(PCMag)的薩沙·塞根立即將其與微軟20年前命運(yùn)多舛的產(chǎn)品“掌上電腦”相提并論。分析師邁克爾·加滕伯格的看法則更加消極。他一口氣列舉了微軟率先進(jìn)入,但最終輸給蘋果的多個(gè)硬件類別,包括音樂播放器、手機(jī)和智能手表。而蘋果已經(jīng)在研發(fā)自己的VR設(shè)備。
其次,也是更重要的一點(diǎn),微軟的優(yōu)勢仍然是開發(fā)軟件平臺(tái)和工具,尤其是那些能夠利用其仍然頗具人氣,諸如Office和Teams這類商業(yè)軟件的平臺(tái)和工具。(微軟透露稱,Teams很快就會(huì)添加Mesh功能。)亞馬遜或微軟可能會(huì)嘗試打造比Mesh更好的服務(wù),而蘋果可能會(huì)忽略這種服務(wù),或者采用封閉系統(tǒng)。沒錯(cuò),納德拉和他的團(tuán)隊(duì)唯有在策略和創(chuàng)新方面超越這些勁敵,Mesh混合現(xiàn)實(shí)服務(wù)才有望成為最終的贏家。
靠產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量競爭?這聽上去是多么古樸的事情啊?。ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:任文科
薩蒂亞·納德拉領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的微軟(Microsoft),已經(jīng)不再是比爾·蓋茨和史蒂夫·鮑爾默當(dāng)年執(zhí)掌的那家公司。
在某種程度上,這是因?yàn)樯w茨和鮑爾默錯(cuò)過了計(jì)算領(lǐng)域的一些大趨勢,比如智能手機(jī)。在個(gè)人電腦(PC)時(shí)代,微軟坐擁無與倫比的統(tǒng)治地位,它就像是一座高墻環(huán)繞、大炮林立的城堡,可以利用Windows擊退各路競爭對手。在那些日子里,這家公司最臭名昭著的策略被戲稱為“擁抱、擴(kuò)展和消滅”:微軟屢屢把競爭對手開發(fā)的新功能和新應(yīng)用融入到Windows中,然后以這些競爭對手無法比擬的方式對其進(jìn)行升級(jí)改造。但這種粗暴做派也讓微軟惹上了一身官司,并最終引發(fā)了1998年的反壟斷大案。
然而,在移動(dòng)時(shí)代,微軟不再擁有固若金湯的城堡。谷歌(Google)和蘋果(Apple)控制著數(shù)十億部手機(jī)上的操作系統(tǒng)軟件。是的,這個(gè)時(shí)代的高墻和大炮歸它們所有。順便說一句,這兩家公司也引發(fā)了當(dāng)年讓微軟陷入麻煩的競爭和反壟斷擔(dān)憂。納德拉獲得公司最高職位的部分原因是,微軟錯(cuò)失移動(dòng)時(shí)代并不是他的錯(cuò),他也不會(huì)像其他高管那樣,被Windows部門日漸衰落的影響力所束縛。他掌管的微軟云計(jì)算平臺(tái)Azure不得不死磕云端的衛(wèi)兵長——亞馬遜網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)(Amazon Web Services)。
那么,在后智能手機(jī)時(shí)代的輪廓逐漸形成之際,納德拉將如何競爭呢?
上周,微軟給我遞來一款HoloLens 2全息眼鏡,并邀請我參加一場堪稱虛擬的會(huì)議。這讓我有機(jī)會(huì)了解這位掌門人的戰(zhàn)略。
三位與會(huì)者身處不同的城市,都戴著HoloLens。我們借助微軟剛剛發(fā)布的Mesh混合現(xiàn)實(shí)服務(wù),通過互聯(lián)網(wǎng)連接在一起。環(huán)顧我的辦公室,我能夠看到另外兩位與會(huì)者的卡通形象亦步亦趨地仿照這兩人在各自辦公室來回走動(dòng)的樣子。在我面前一張?zhí)摂M會(huì)議桌的上空,漂浮著兩個(gè)數(shù)字海洋生物。我可以伸出手來移動(dòng)它們,更仔細(xì)地觀察它們,或者將其拉大。
令人驚奇的是,當(dāng)我這么做的時(shí)候,其他與會(huì)者能夠清楚地看到我對虛擬的水母和鯊魚做了些什么。正如我說的那樣,一切看起來都有點(diǎn)卡通化,但位置追蹤和實(shí)時(shí)移動(dòng)都非常準(zhǔn)確——除非有人點(diǎn)錯(cuò)了菜單項(xiàng),意外退出。
這里的關(guān)鍵其實(shí)并不是HoloLens硬件。事實(shí)上,微軟正在讓Mesh與盡可能多的裝備兼容,包括蘋果的Mac電腦和Facebook的Oculus VR頭戴式顯示器。Mesh服務(wù)本身并不是消費(fèi)者或企業(yè)用戶將要使用的。它更像是一種管道服務(wù),任何應(yīng)用開發(fā)者都可以利用它來構(gòu)建這種虛擬的、實(shí)時(shí)的協(xié)作能力。真正神奇的事情發(fā)生在Azure的云服務(wù)器。這些服務(wù)器正在跟蹤虛擬會(huì)議空間中的所有人和事,并計(jì)算如何毫無延遲地把它們展示給每位參與者。
3月2日,納德拉亮相微軟Ignite大會(huì),并在Mesh服務(wù)的啟動(dòng)儀式上發(fā)表主題演講。“現(xiàn)在到了我們反思的時(shí)候了。我們必須得搞清楚未來十年的云技術(shù)將如何演變,這個(gè)瞬息萬變的世界需要從云端獲得什么樣的創(chuàng)新?!彼f。
這很聰明,原因有二。首先,沒有人認(rèn)為微軟會(huì)在開發(fā)混合現(xiàn)實(shí)和虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)硬件的競賽中獲勝。3月2日,在微軟利用HoloLens公開展示其Mesh服務(wù)之后,《個(gè)人電腦雜志》(PCMag)的薩沙·塞根立即將其與微軟20年前命運(yùn)多舛的產(chǎn)品“掌上電腦”相提并論。分析師邁克爾·加滕伯格的看法則更加消極。他一口氣列舉了微軟率先進(jìn)入,但最終輸給蘋果的多個(gè)硬件類別,包括音樂播放器、手機(jī)和智能手表。而蘋果已經(jīng)在研發(fā)自己的VR設(shè)備。
其次,也是更重要的一點(diǎn),微軟的優(yōu)勢仍然是開發(fā)軟件平臺(tái)和工具,尤其是那些能夠利用其仍然頗具人氣,諸如Office和Teams這類商業(yè)軟件的平臺(tái)和工具。(微軟透露稱,Teams很快就會(huì)添加Mesh功能。)亞馬遜或微軟可能會(huì)嘗試打造比Mesh更好的服務(wù),而蘋果可能會(huì)忽略這種服務(wù),或者采用封閉系統(tǒng)。沒錯(cuò),納德拉和他的團(tuán)隊(duì)唯有在策略和創(chuàng)新方面超越這些勁敵,Mesh混合現(xiàn)實(shí)服務(wù)才有望成為最終的贏家。
靠產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量競爭?這聽上去是多么古樸的事情?。。ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:任文科
Satya Nadella's Microsoft is not the Microsoft of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer.
In some ways, that's because Gates and Ballmer missed some of the big trends in computing like, say, smartphones. Microsoft had such a dominant position in the PC era that it could fight competitors using Windows like a castle with high walls and many cannons. Their most infamous tactic in those days was dubbed "embrace, extend, and extinguish," whereby they incorporated into Windows the new features and new applications developed by rivals but then altered them in ways the rivals couldn't match. But playing rough led to lawsuits and eventually the big 1998 antitrust case.
In the mobile era, however, Microsoft has no such castle. Google and Apple control the operating system software on billions of phones and the high walls and many cannons belong to them (and they're raising the same kinds of competition and antitrust worries that got Microsoft in trouble). Nadella got the top job in part because he wasn't the exec who lost mobile and he wasn't tied to the fading power of the Windows division. He oversaw Azure, Microsoft's cloud computing platform. And Azure had to compete against Amazon Web Services, the OG of the cloud.
So as we start to see the outlines of the post-smartphone era take shape, how will Nadella compete?
I got a window into his strategy last week when Microsoft sent me one of its HoloLens 2 headsets and invited me to a virtual meeting of sorts.
Each of the three meeting participants was in a different city and wearing a HoloLens, and we were all connected over the Internet via Microsoft's just-made-public Mesh mixed reality service. Looking around my office, I could see cartoonish figures of the other two participants, or avatars, that moved around in real time to match how those people were moving back in each of their own offices. Before me was a virtual table with a couple of digital sea creatures floating in the air. I could reach out and move them around, examine them more closely, or stretch them bigger.
The amazing part was that as I did that, the other people in the meeting could see exactly what I was doing with the virtual jellyfish and shark. Everything looked a bit cartoonish, as I said, but the location tracking and the real-time movements were pretty spot on (at least until someone hit a wrong menu item and accidentally dropped out).
The key here isn't really the HoloLens hardware. In fact, Microsoft is making Mesh compatible with as much gear as possible, including Apple's Mac computers and Facebook's Oculus VR headsets. The Mesh service itself isn't what consumers or business users will use. It's more of a plumbing service that any app developer can use to build in these kind of virtual, real-time collaboration capabilities. The real magic is happening out on Azure's cloud servers, which are tracking everything and everyone in the virtual meeting space and calculating how to display them for each participant without any delays.
“It’s time for us to reflect on how the cloud will change over the next decade, and the innovation our changing world will require from the cloud,” Nadella said in his keynote address at March 2's unveiling of Mesh at Microsoft's Ignite conference.
That's smart for a couple of reasons. First, no one thinks Microsoft is going to win the race to develop the best mixed reality and virtual reality hardware. On March 2, after Microsoft publicly demoed Mesh with the HoloLens, PCMag's Sascha Segan compared it to Microsoft's ill-fated "Pocket PC" effort from 20 years ago. Analyst Michael Gartenberg was even more negative, running down the list of hardware categories where Microsoft was first but lost to Apple, including music players, phones, and smartwatches. And Apple is already working on its own VR devices.
Second, and more importantly, Microsoft's strength remains in developing software platforms and tools, particularly ones that can leverage the popularity of its still popular business software like Office and Teams (Teams is getting Mesh features pronto, Microsoft says). Amazon or Google may try to build something better than Mesh and Apple may try to ignore it or lock it out. The service only wins if Nadella and his team outmaneuver and out-innovate the pack.
Competing on product quality? How quaint.