2021年10月下旬,社交媒體巨頭Facebook宣布了一項大膽舉措:它正在進行品牌重塑,自此以后將更名為Meta。這個新名稱源自“元宇宙”(metaverse)一詞。盡管很難給這個術(shù)語下一個簡潔的定義,但根據(jù)目前的認知,元宇宙是一個3D虛擬空間,通常需要借助虛擬現(xiàn)實(VR)或增強現(xiàn)實(AR)等技術(shù)才能夠入駐其中。它可能包羅萬象,從虛擬會議場所到游戲,再到虛擬音樂會和購物體驗,不一而足。許多人認為,元宇宙是下一代互聯(lián)網(wǎng)(Web 3.0)的一部分。
Facebook更名為Meta,同時在第三季度宣布將在2021年斥資約100億美元打造其元宇宙部門,被一些華爾街人士視為世人對元宇宙認知的一大轉(zhuǎn)折點。
“我認為那是市場情緒的一個拐點。Facebook更名后,人們對元宇宙的興趣陡然飆漲?!甭?lián)博資產(chǎn)管理公司(AllianceBernstein)負責美國密集成長業(yè)務(wù)的首席投資官詹姆斯·蒂爾尼表示。
事實上,“華爾街過去很少提及‘元宇宙’一詞?!表f德布什證券公司(Wedbush Securities)的董事總經(jīng)理兼科技股高級分析師丹尼爾·艾夫斯告訴《財富》雜志。但近幾個月來,“從華爾街的角度看,它已經(jīng)成為最熱門的主題之一。每一位投資者都想搞清楚如何從中分一杯羹?!?/p>
元宇宙這個概念本身并不新鮮,它最早出現(xiàn)在尼爾·斯蒂芬森于20世紀90年代初發(fā)表的小說《雪崩》(Snow Crash)中。但隨著科技巨頭競相布局元宇宙,消費者和企業(yè)對其興趣激增,這一領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)引來投資者的熱切目光。
對股票投資者來說,目前“專攻”元宇宙的公司還屬鳳毛麟角。艾夫斯指出:“現(xiàn)在還是非常早期的階段。我認為,許多投資者還在小心翼翼地摸索如何投資元宇宙?!辈贿^,他并不認為這全然是炒作。
總體而言,基金經(jīng)理表示,他們?nèi)匀徊恢涝钪婢烤箷鞘裁茨?,也不知道它會對商業(yè)模式產(chǎn)生何種影響?!拔覀兡壳坝懻摰慕K點不是幾個月或幾年,而是幾十年之后。”Alger公司的執(zhí)行副總裁兼投資組合經(jīng)理安庫爾·克勞福德斷言。
但也有很多公司正在投資元宇宙,要么開發(fā)硬件作為進入元宇宙的跳板,要么制造產(chǎn)品來支持其基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。在分析師和基金經(jīng)理看來,這是最引人矚目的機會所在——至少目前是這樣。
許多投資者都渴望從這一新興領(lǐng)域獲利,但一時無從下手?!敦敻弧冯s志為此專訪了多位投資組合經(jīng)理和分析師,邀請他們推薦幾只值得押注的元宇宙概念股。
科技巨頭的游戲
角逐元宇宙圣杯的戰(zhàn)斗正在迅速升溫,而大型科技公司是絕不會袖手旁觀的。
事實上,科技巨頭們正在競相投入數(shù)十億美元來打造元宇宙。包括聯(lián)博資產(chǎn)管理公司的蒂爾尼在內(nèi),一些基金經(jīng)理認為,“我們更希望像Facebook、微軟(Microsoft)、亞馬遜(Amazon)這樣的公司稱霸元宇宙。這些公司不僅潛力無限,而且其基礎(chǔ)業(yè)務(wù)足以推動股價上漲。”哪怕在五年或十年后,元宇宙仍然是一個“虛無縹緲的存在”。
難怪不少基金經(jīng)理認為Meta(股票代碼:FB,股價:318美元)就是“玩轉(zhuǎn)元宇宙的最佳途徑”。這家社交巨擘已經(jīng)通過其Oculus VR頭戴設(shè)備業(yè)務(wù),以及它對在3D虛擬空間中生活、游戲和開會的愿景(比如Meta最新發(fā)布的Horizon平臺),非常清楚地表明了其主導(dǎo)元宇宙的雄心。蒂爾尼指出,對投資者來說,Meta有幾個優(yōu)勢:“基礎(chǔ)業(yè)務(wù)很強,并且還在持續(xù)增長;我們認為,它還有很大的增長空間?!比A爾街預(yù)計,Meta在2022財年的收入將增長19%。不過,從估值角度看,Meta在2021年向元宇宙部門投資100億美元(未來肯定還會追加投資),是一個潛在的利好:Meta目前的歷史市盈率低于24倍;“除去這些支出,其市盈率就在十幾或20倍左右。因此,你要么是低估了它的基礎(chǔ)業(yè)務(wù),要么是免費獲得了元宇宙期權(quán)?!彼f,“無論如何,我認為這對投資者是很有吸引力的?!备匾氖牵J為Meta斥巨資打造元宇宙,就相當于“圍繞其業(yè)務(wù)建造了一道護城河,”以此來震懾未來有可能涌現(xiàn)的競爭對手。然而,該公司在現(xiàn)實世界中依舊面臨重重阻力。例如,一場反壟斷訴訟可能迫使Meta出售備受其珍視的Instagram和WhatsApp業(yè)務(wù);另有報道稱,美國聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會(Federal Trade Commission)正在牽頭調(diào)查其VR業(yè)務(wù)可能存在的反競爭行為。
與此同時,正如韋德布什證券的艾夫斯所言,微軟(股票代碼:MSFT,股價:303美元)也渴望“成為元宇宙領(lǐng)域的重要一員”。這家科技巨頭決意為Xbox開發(fā)元宇宙游戲——該公司剛剛同意以大約690億美元的價格收購視頻游戲制造商動視暴雪(Activision Blizzard)——并且開始將元宇宙功能整合到其產(chǎn)品套件中,比如最近宣布的Mesh for Teams,這個面向企業(yè)的虛擬會議空間是微軟混合現(xiàn)實Mesh平臺的組成部分。艾夫斯預(yù)測稱,該公司“將通過挖掘內(nèi)部潛力和收購等方式強勢進軍元宇宙?!盇lger公司的克勞福德也認為,微軟應(yīng)該會成為“‘企業(yè)元宇宙’的主導(dǎo)者。”她指出,其混合現(xiàn)實產(chǎn)品HoloLens能夠通過培訓(xùn)和工作支持等方式幫助企業(yè),以及像美國軍隊這樣的客戶提高效率。這款產(chǎn)品已經(jīng)很適合元宇宙了,盡管其目前的迭代“尚未達到應(yīng)有的高度”。聯(lián)博資產(chǎn)管理公司的蒂爾尼也指出,假以時日,微軟的云業(yè)務(wù)Azure也會受益于元宇宙的成長。
他說,亞馬遜(股票代碼:AMZN,股價:3178美元)亦是如此。其云計算部門亞馬遜網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)(Amazon Web Services)應(yīng)該會讓這兩只股票成為“天然的投資對象”。但在云業(yè)務(wù)之外,如果該公司可以在元宇宙和VR領(lǐng)域推出一款“全壘打”應(yīng)用程序,那將有助于銷售服裝等商品的零售企業(yè)降低在線退貨成本。這可能對亞馬遜有利,因為電子商務(wù)一直是該公司“有意義的”組成部分。(亞馬遜已經(jīng)推出了虛擬試穿等功能,并且很早就嘗試著利用3D模型等技術(shù)來減少退貨,不過蒂爾尼指出,“其能力還有待改善?!保笆褂眠@些工具來降低退貨率將顯著提振銷售額,但更重要的是,如果退貨減少,利潤就會大幅提高。”蒂爾尼說,“我認為,僅僅出于這一點,亞馬遜進入元宇宙就很有意義。”不過,以目前的股價水平來看,該股仍然很貴,其遠期市盈率接近82倍。
與此同時,蘋果(股票代碼:AAPL,股價:170美元)也被基金經(jīng)理視為有望受益于元宇宙的科技巨頭之一。要么是通過硬件,要么是作為元宇宙場景的建設(shè)者?;蛘?,包括Alger公司的克勞福德在內(nèi),一些基金經(jīng)理期望蘋果能夠同時從這兩方面發(fā)力。克勞福德表示:“蘋果是一個備受消費者信賴的平臺,消費者元宇宙是其現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)品的自然延伸?!表f德布什證券的艾夫斯預(yù)測稱,蘋果將在今年推出一款VR/AR頭戴設(shè)備。坊間一直有相關(guān)傳聞,但還未得到該公司證實。如果這樣一款產(chǎn)品進入市場,艾夫斯認為“那將是通往元宇宙的高速公路上的分水嶺事件?!?/p>
事實上,艾夫斯稱,“元宇宙的第一篇章就是讓消費者入駐其中,而其中很大一部分無疑要依靠蘋果、Facebook和微軟來實現(xiàn)?!?/p>
押注基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施
就投資元宇宙而言,這或許不是最性感的方式,但如果你不希望把所有雞蛋都放在一個元宇宙贏家的籃子里,選擇那些將為元宇宙建造基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的股票,例如半導(dǎo)體,或許是一個更安全的賭注,同時仍然可以讓你成為這一趨勢的受益者。而且,它最終可能是一個收益頗豐的選擇:英特爾(Intel)在2021年12月預(yù)測稱,元宇宙要真正成形的話,計算能力就需要大幅提高1000倍。
“在元宇宙領(lǐng)域最具體的努力,莫過于Facebook的資本支出計劃,以及他們立即著手建造元宇宙數(shù)據(jù)中心等舉措?!背啃枪荆∕orningstar)的科技股研究主管布萊恩·科萊洛對《財富》雜志表示,“這將提振那些擁有云計算和數(shù)據(jù)中心業(yè)務(wù)的公司?!狈线@一標準的股票包括超微半導(dǎo)體(股票代碼:AMD,股價:132美元)和Arista Networks(股票代碼:ANET,股價:127美元)。
克勞福德表示,半導(dǎo)體巨頭英偉達(股票代碼:NVDA,股價:259美元)讓她“超級興奮”。諸如圖形處理器(GPU)這類產(chǎn)品應(yīng)該會使這家公司成為元宇宙的“巨大受益者”, 因為其基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)將依賴大量計算?!八麄儙缀跻呀?jīng)成為計算方面的賦能者?!笨藙诟5抡f,“展望未來,每臺設(shè)備或許都需要一個圖形引擎,更不用說所有的計算都需要在云端進行。”她還提到英偉達的Omniverse平臺,它能夠讓創(chuàng)作者“建立站點、城鎮(zhèn)的數(shù)字孿生體。然后,這些數(shù)字孿生體會依靠英偉達的GPU來運行,或者在英偉達運營的數(shù)據(jù)中心內(nèi)運行?!币虼?,她指出,英偉達有望在元宇宙的“硬件(即計算)和軟件開發(fā)方面都發(fā)揮作用?!彼羞@些都將提振英偉達原本就很強勁的業(yè)務(wù):分析師預(yù)計,英偉達在2022財年的營收將增長約18%。不過,這只股票的遠期市盈率在2021年上漲了124%,目前仍然高達52倍。
對于估值較低的股票,克勞福德和哥倫比亞塞利格曼全球科技基金(Columbia Seligman Global Technology Fund)的投資組合經(jīng)理謝卡爾·普拉馬尼克都看好美光科技(股票代碼:MU, 股價:93美元),一家生產(chǎn)內(nèi)存和存儲芯片的半導(dǎo)體公司??紤]到元宇宙需要依賴頭戴設(shè)備、數(shù)據(jù)中心和平臺來運轉(zhuǎn),“快速計算是基本要求,而這需要強大的內(nèi)存來提供?!笨藙诟5抡f。所有這些高性能計算“通常都需要大量的內(nèi)存、DRAM、動態(tài)RAM,以及被稱為閃存的存儲設(shè)備?!逼绽R尼克指出。而這正是美光的優(yōu)勢所在。事實上,克勞福德估計,對“本地和云端”計算的采用將刺激對內(nèi)存(以及美光的內(nèi)存芯片)的需求。她預(yù)測稱,哪怕是“需求的一個小拐點”也會推動DRAM芯片“在每個終點”增長兩到三倍。美光的遠期市盈率不高,還不到11倍。華爾街預(yù)計,在截至2022年8月的財年,其銷售額將增長16%。
對泛林集團(股票代碼:LRCX,股價:679美元)來說,這些趨勢也是一個好兆頭。普拉馬尼克相信,這家致力于為半導(dǎo)體制造商生產(chǎn)設(shè)備的公司將受益于“元宇宙帶來的額外計算和內(nèi)存需求?!睆拇蠹s20倍的遠期市盈率來看,該股不會讓你傾家蕩產(chǎn)。分析師預(yù)計,在截至2022年6月的財年,該公司的營收將增長20%以上,但在之后一個財年,其增長預(yù)計將放緩至個位數(shù)。
普拉馬尼克指出,借助VR頭戴設(shè)備訪問元宇宙時,消費者最不希望體驗的,就是因為“顯示驅(qū)動器的運行頻率不夠高而造成的暈眩感?!倍@正是Synaptics(股票代碼:SYNA,股價:234美元)等公司有望獲利的地方。Synaptics專注于生產(chǎn)AR和VR頭戴設(shè)備須臾不可離的顯示驅(qū)動芯片。“這些設(shè)備都需要非常高分辨率的顯示效果?!备匾氖牵绽R尼克對其基礎(chǔ)業(yè)務(wù)欣賞有加。Synaptics擁有一支相對較新的管理團隊。2019年掌舵的首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾·赫爾斯頓“徹底改變了這家公司,”其營業(yè)利潤和毛利率均有所改善。在截至2020年9月的季度中,Synaptics的毛利率為44%左右,到2021年同一季度已經(jīng)增長到53%以上。盡管VR業(yè)務(wù)目前在公司營收中占比不大,但赫爾斯頓在最近一次財報電話會議上表示,這塊業(yè)務(wù)“已經(jīng)變得頗具意義,增長前景非常好。”
當然,所有這些芯片都需要測試,這就是像泰瑞達(股票代碼:TER,股價:156美元)這類股票大顯身手的地方。據(jù)彭博社(Bloomberg)報道,這家公司連同其競爭對手愛德萬測試(Advantest),占據(jù)了約80%至90%的市場份額。普拉馬尼克也指出,泰瑞達的核心業(yè)務(wù)正在穩(wěn)步發(fā)展,“擁有超強的盈利能力?!狈治鰩燁A(yù)計,其2022財年的利潤將增長近12%。
與此同時,Matterport(股票代碼:MTTR,股價:13美元)可能成為另一家受益于元宇宙的企業(yè)。這家空間數(shù)據(jù)公司致力于提供真實建筑的3D版本。在韋德布什證券的艾夫斯看來,Matterport“基本上創(chuàng)造了房地產(chǎn)的數(shù)字孿生體,后者現(xiàn)在開始被越來越多地應(yīng)用于數(shù)字世界?!彼€指出,該公司正在聯(lián)手Meta圍繞3D空間數(shù)據(jù)集展開學(xué)術(shù)研究,“預(yù)計他們還將達成更多的技術(shù)合作。”Matterport的股價在2021年上漲了45%以上(它是2021年7月通過一筆SPAC并購交易上市的);華爾街估計,該公司在2022年的營收將增長近47%。
競逐加密世界
BTIG公司的金融科技和加密貨幣分析師兼董事總經(jīng)理馬克·帕爾默認為,元宇宙有可能分裂為兩塊:一塊是經(jīng)過許可,或者說是集中式的元宇宙(比如科技平臺),另一塊是“開放的元宇宙”,即去中心化的區(qū)塊鏈,包含像非同質(zhì)化代幣(NFT)這類東西。“我認為,開放元宇宙和其他一切領(lǐng)域的區(qū)別將越來越明顯?!迸翣柲恢痹诿芮嘘P(guān)注開放元宇宙。
他宣稱,到目前為止,在區(qū)塊鏈支持的元宇宙方面,投資者的“選擇仍然非常有限,至少在公共領(lǐng)域是這樣?!?/p>
但在公開市場上,有一只目前在多倫多證券交易所交易,但計劃于2022年第一季度登陸納斯達克(Nasdaq)的股票值得關(guān)注。那就是邁克·諾沃格拉茨領(lǐng)銜的加密貨幣投資管理公司Galaxy Digital(股票代碼:GLXY,股價:16美元)。帕爾默特別提到其附屬投資機構(gòu)Galaxy Interactive?!捌煜碌膬芍换鸸芾碇?.5億美元,而且是上市公司的一部分。”Galaxy Interactive正在投資NFT(這是元宇宙的一大組件)和SAND幣,后者由區(qū)塊鏈驅(qū)動的元宇宙平臺Sandbox發(fā)行?!八麄兊耐顿Y重點是開放元宇宙?!迸翣柲f,“我預(yù)計未來會有更多的公司進入這一領(lǐng)域。”(財富中文網(wǎng))
所有股價的計算時間均為2022年1月18日。
譯者:任文科
2021年10月下旬,社交媒體巨頭Facebook宣布了一項大膽舉措:它正在進行品牌重塑,自此以后將更名為Meta。這個新名稱源自“元宇宙”(metaverse)一詞。盡管很難給這個術(shù)語下一個簡潔的定義,但根據(jù)目前的認知,元宇宙是一個3D虛擬空間,通常需要借助虛擬現(xiàn)實(VR)或增強現(xiàn)實(AR)等技術(shù)才能夠入駐其中。它可能包羅萬象,從虛擬會議場所到游戲,再到虛擬音樂會和購物體驗,不一而足。許多人認為,元宇宙是下一代互聯(lián)網(wǎng)(Web 3.0)的一部分。
Facebook更名為Meta,同時在第三季度宣布將在2021年斥資約100億美元打造其元宇宙部門,被一些華爾街人士視為世人對元宇宙認知的一大轉(zhuǎn)折點。
“我認為那是市場情緒的一個拐點。Facebook更名后,人們對元宇宙的興趣陡然飆漲?!甭?lián)博資產(chǎn)管理公司(AllianceBernstein)負責美國密集成長業(yè)務(wù)的首席投資官詹姆斯·蒂爾尼表示。
事實上,“華爾街過去很少提及‘元宇宙’一詞?!表f德布什證券公司(Wedbush Securities)的董事總經(jīng)理兼科技股高級分析師丹尼爾·艾夫斯告訴《財富》雜志。但近幾個月來,“從華爾街的角度看,它已經(jīng)成為最熱門的主題之一。每一位投資者都想搞清楚如何從中分一杯羹?!?/p>
元宇宙這個概念本身并不新鮮,它最早出現(xiàn)在尼爾·斯蒂芬森于20世紀90年代初發(fā)表的小說《雪崩》(Snow Crash)中。但隨著科技巨頭競相布局元宇宙,消費者和企業(yè)對其興趣激增,這一領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)引來投資者的熱切目光。
對股票投資者來說,目前“專攻”元宇宙的公司還屬鳳毛麟角。艾夫斯指出:“現(xiàn)在還是非常早期的階段。我認為,許多投資者還在小心翼翼地摸索如何投資元宇宙?!辈贿^,他并不認為這全然是炒作。
總體而言,基金經(jīng)理表示,他們?nèi)匀徊恢涝钪婢烤箷鞘裁茨?,也不知道它會對商業(yè)模式產(chǎn)生何種影響?!拔覀兡壳坝懻摰慕K點不是幾個月或幾年,而是幾十年之后?!盇lger公司的執(zhí)行副總裁兼投資組合經(jīng)理安庫爾·克勞福德斷言。
但也有很多公司正在投資元宇宙,要么開發(fā)硬件作為進入元宇宙的跳板,要么制造產(chǎn)品來支持其基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。在分析師和基金經(jīng)理看來,這是最引人矚目的機會所在——至少目前是這樣。
許多投資者都渴望從這一新興領(lǐng)域獲利,但一時無從下手。《財富》雜志為此專訪了多位投資組合經(jīng)理和分析師,邀請他們推薦幾只值得押注的元宇宙概念股。
科技巨頭的游戲
角逐元宇宙圣杯的戰(zhàn)斗正在迅速升溫,而大型科技公司是絕不會袖手旁觀的。
事實上,科技巨頭們正在競相投入數(shù)十億美元來打造元宇宙。包括聯(lián)博資產(chǎn)管理公司的蒂爾尼在內(nèi),一些基金經(jīng)理認為,“我們更希望像Facebook、微軟(Microsoft)、亞馬遜(Amazon)這樣的公司稱霸元宇宙。這些公司不僅潛力無限,而且其基礎(chǔ)業(yè)務(wù)足以推動股價上漲?!蹦呐略谖迥昊蚴旰?,元宇宙仍然是一個“虛無縹緲的存在”。
難怪不少基金經(jīng)理認為Meta(股票代碼:FB,股價:318美元)就是“玩轉(zhuǎn)元宇宙的最佳途徑”。這家社交巨擘已經(jīng)通過其Oculus VR頭戴設(shè)備業(yè)務(wù),以及它對在3D虛擬空間中生活、游戲和開會的愿景(比如Meta最新發(fā)布的Horizon平臺),非常清楚地表明了其主導(dǎo)元宇宙的雄心。蒂爾尼指出,對投資者來說,Meta有幾個優(yōu)勢:“基礎(chǔ)業(yè)務(wù)很強,并且還在持續(xù)增長;我們認為,它還有很大的增長空間?!比A爾街預(yù)計,Meta在2022財年的收入將增長19%。不過,從估值角度看,Meta在2021年向元宇宙部門投資100億美元(未來肯定還會追加投資),是一個潛在的利好:Meta目前的歷史市盈率低于24倍;“除去這些支出,其市盈率就在十幾或20倍左右。因此,你要么是低估了它的基礎(chǔ)業(yè)務(wù),要么是免費獲得了元宇宙期權(quán)?!彼f,“無論如何,我認為這對投資者是很有吸引力的?!备匾氖牵J為Meta斥巨資打造元宇宙,就相當于“圍繞其業(yè)務(wù)建造了一道護城河,”以此來震懾未來有可能涌現(xiàn)的競爭對手。然而,該公司在現(xiàn)實世界中依舊面臨重重阻力。例如,一場反壟斷訴訟可能迫使Meta出售備受其珍視的Instagram和WhatsApp業(yè)務(wù);另有報道稱,美國聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會(Federal Trade Commission)正在牽頭調(diào)查其VR業(yè)務(wù)可能存在的反競爭行為。
與此同時,正如韋德布什證券的艾夫斯所言,微軟(股票代碼:MSFT,股價:303美元)也渴望“成為元宇宙領(lǐng)域的重要一員”。這家科技巨頭決意為Xbox開發(fā)元宇宙游戲——該公司剛剛同意以大約690億美元的價格收購視頻游戲制造商動視暴雪(Activision Blizzard)——并且開始將元宇宙功能整合到其產(chǎn)品套件中,比如最近宣布的Mesh for Teams,這個面向企業(yè)的虛擬會議空間是微軟混合現(xiàn)實Mesh平臺的組成部分。艾夫斯預(yù)測稱,該公司“將通過挖掘內(nèi)部潛力和收購等方式強勢進軍元宇宙。”Alger公司的克勞福德也認為,微軟應(yīng)該會成為“‘企業(yè)元宇宙’的主導(dǎo)者?!彼赋?,其混合現(xiàn)實產(chǎn)品HoloLens能夠通過培訓(xùn)和工作支持等方式幫助企業(yè),以及像美國軍隊這樣的客戶提高效率。這款產(chǎn)品已經(jīng)很適合元宇宙了,盡管其目前的迭代“尚未達到應(yīng)有的高度”。聯(lián)博資產(chǎn)管理公司的蒂爾尼也指出,假以時日,微軟的云業(yè)務(wù)Azure也會受益于元宇宙的成長。
他說,亞馬遜(股票代碼:AMZN,股價:3178美元)亦是如此。其云計算部門亞馬遜網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)(Amazon Web Services)應(yīng)該會讓這兩只股票成為“天然的投資對象”。但在云業(yè)務(wù)之外,如果該公司可以在元宇宙和VR領(lǐng)域推出一款“全壘打”應(yīng)用程序,那將有助于銷售服裝等商品的零售企業(yè)降低在線退貨成本。這可能對亞馬遜有利,因為電子商務(wù)一直是該公司“有意義的”組成部分。(亞馬遜已經(jīng)推出了虛擬試穿等功能,并且很早就嘗試著利用3D模型等技術(shù)來減少退貨,不過蒂爾尼指出,“其能力還有待改善。”)“使用這些工具來降低退貨率將顯著提振銷售額,但更重要的是,如果退貨減少,利潤就會大幅提高。”蒂爾尼說,“我認為,僅僅出于這一點,亞馬遜進入元宇宙就很有意義?!辈贿^,以目前的股價水平來看,該股仍然很貴,其遠期市盈率接近82倍。
與此同時,蘋果(股票代碼:AAPL,股價:170美元)也被基金經(jīng)理視為有望受益于元宇宙的科技巨頭之一。要么是通過硬件,要么是作為元宇宙場景的建設(shè)者?;蛘撸ˋlger公司的克勞福德在內(nèi),一些基金經(jīng)理期望蘋果能夠同時從這兩方面發(fā)力??藙诟5卤硎荆骸疤O果是一個備受消費者信賴的平臺,消費者元宇宙是其現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)品的自然延伸?!表f德布什證券的艾夫斯預(yù)測稱,蘋果將在今年推出一款VR/AR頭戴設(shè)備。坊間一直有相關(guān)傳聞,但還未得到該公司證實。如果這樣一款產(chǎn)品進入市場,艾夫斯認為“那將是通往元宇宙的高速公路上的分水嶺事件?!?/p>
事實上,艾夫斯稱,“元宇宙的第一篇章就是讓消費者入駐其中,而其中很大一部分無疑要依靠蘋果、Facebook和微軟來實現(xiàn)?!?/p>
押注基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施
就投資元宇宙而言,這或許不是最性感的方式,但如果你不希望把所有雞蛋都放在一個元宇宙贏家的籃子里,選擇那些將為元宇宙建造基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的股票,例如半導(dǎo)體,或許是一個更安全的賭注,同時仍然可以讓你成為這一趨勢的受益者。而且,它最終可能是一個收益頗豐的選擇:英特爾(Intel)在2021年12月預(yù)測稱,元宇宙要真正成形的話,計算能力就需要大幅提高1000倍。
“在元宇宙領(lǐng)域最具體的努力,莫過于Facebook的資本支出計劃,以及他們立即著手建造元宇宙數(shù)據(jù)中心等舉措?!背啃枪荆∕orningstar)的科技股研究主管布萊恩·科萊洛對《財富》雜志表示,“這將提振那些擁有云計算和數(shù)據(jù)中心業(yè)務(wù)的公司。”符合這一標準的股票包括超微半導(dǎo)體(股票代碼:AMD,股價:132美元)和Arista Networks(股票代碼:ANET,股價:127美元)。
克勞福德表示,半導(dǎo)體巨頭英偉達(股票代碼:NVDA,股價:259美元)讓她“超級興奮”。諸如圖形處理器(GPU)這類產(chǎn)品應(yīng)該會使這家公司成為元宇宙的“巨大受益者”, 因為其基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)將依賴大量計算。“他們幾乎已經(jīng)成為計算方面的賦能者。”克勞福德說,“展望未來,每臺設(shè)備或許都需要一個圖形引擎,更不用說所有的計算都需要在云端進行?!彼€提到英偉達的Omniverse平臺,它能夠讓創(chuàng)作者“建立站點、城鎮(zhèn)的數(shù)字孿生體。然后,這些數(shù)字孿生體會依靠英偉達的GPU來運行,或者在英偉達運營的數(shù)據(jù)中心內(nèi)運行?!币虼耍赋?,英偉達有望在元宇宙的“硬件(即計算)和軟件開發(fā)方面都發(fā)揮作用?!彼羞@些都將提振英偉達原本就很強勁的業(yè)務(wù):分析師預(yù)計,英偉達在2022財年的營收將增長約18%。不過,這只股票的遠期市盈率在2021年上漲了124%,目前仍然高達52倍。
對于估值較低的股票,克勞福德和哥倫比亞塞利格曼全球科技基金(Columbia Seligman Global Technology Fund)的投資組合經(jīng)理謝卡爾·普拉馬尼克都看好美光科技(股票代碼:MU, 股價:93美元),一家生產(chǎn)內(nèi)存和存儲芯片的半導(dǎo)體公司??紤]到元宇宙需要依賴頭戴設(shè)備、數(shù)據(jù)中心和平臺來運轉(zhuǎn),“快速計算是基本要求,而這需要強大的內(nèi)存來提供?!笨藙诟5抡f。所有這些高性能計算“通常都需要大量的內(nèi)存、DRAM、動態(tài)RAM,以及被稱為閃存的存儲設(shè)備。”普拉馬尼克指出。而這正是美光的優(yōu)勢所在。事實上,克勞福德估計,對“本地和云端”計算的采用將刺激對內(nèi)存(以及美光的內(nèi)存芯片)的需求。她預(yù)測稱,哪怕是“需求的一個小拐點”也會推動DRAM芯片“在每個終點”增長兩到三倍。美光的遠期市盈率不高,還不到11倍。華爾街預(yù)計,在截至2022年8月的財年,其銷售額將增長16%。
對泛林集團(股票代碼:LRCX,股價:679美元)來說,這些趨勢也是一個好兆頭。普拉馬尼克相信,這家致力于為半導(dǎo)體制造商生產(chǎn)設(shè)備的公司將受益于“元宇宙帶來的額外計算和內(nèi)存需求?!睆拇蠹s20倍的遠期市盈率來看,該股不會讓你傾家蕩產(chǎn)。分析師預(yù)計,在截至2022年6月的財年,該公司的營收將增長20%以上,但在之后一個財年,其增長預(yù)計將放緩至個位數(shù)。
普拉馬尼克指出,借助VR頭戴設(shè)備訪問元宇宙時,消費者最不希望體驗的,就是因為“顯示驅(qū)動器的運行頻率不夠高而造成的暈眩感?!倍@正是Synaptics(股票代碼:SYNA,股價:234美元)等公司有望獲利的地方。Synaptics專注于生產(chǎn)AR和VR頭戴設(shè)備須臾不可離的顯示驅(qū)動芯片?!斑@些設(shè)備都需要非常高分辨率的顯示效果?!备匾氖?,普拉馬尼克對其基礎(chǔ)業(yè)務(wù)欣賞有加。Synaptics擁有一支相對較新的管理團隊。2019年掌舵的首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾·赫爾斯頓“徹底改變了這家公司,”其營業(yè)利潤和毛利率均有所改善。在截至2020年9月的季度中,Synaptics的毛利率為44%左右,到2021年同一季度已經(jīng)增長到53%以上。盡管VR業(yè)務(wù)目前在公司營收中占比不大,但赫爾斯頓在最近一次財報電話會議上表示,這塊業(yè)務(wù)“已經(jīng)變得頗具意義,增長前景非常好。”
當然,所有這些芯片都需要測試,這就是像泰瑞達(股票代碼:TER,股價:156美元)這類股票大顯身手的地方。據(jù)彭博社(Bloomberg)報道,這家公司連同其競爭對手愛德萬測試(Advantest),占據(jù)了約80%至90%的市場份額。普拉馬尼克也指出,泰瑞達的核心業(yè)務(wù)正在穩(wěn)步發(fā)展,“擁有超強的盈利能力?!狈治鰩燁A(yù)計,其2022財年的利潤將增長近12%。
與此同時,Matterport(股票代碼:MTTR,股價:13美元)可能成為另一家受益于元宇宙的企業(yè)。這家空間數(shù)據(jù)公司致力于提供真實建筑的3D版本。在韋德布什證券的艾夫斯看來,Matterport“基本上創(chuàng)造了房地產(chǎn)的數(shù)字孿生體,后者現(xiàn)在開始被越來越多地應(yīng)用于數(shù)字世界。”他還指出,該公司正在聯(lián)手Meta圍繞3D空間數(shù)據(jù)集展開學(xué)術(shù)研究,“預(yù)計他們還將達成更多的技術(shù)合作?!盡atterport的股價在2021年上漲了45%以上(它是2021年7月通過一筆SPAC并購交易上市的);華爾街估計,該公司在2022年的營收將增長近47%。
競逐加密世界
BTIG公司的金融科技和加密貨幣分析師兼董事總經(jīng)理馬克·帕爾默認為,元宇宙有可能分裂為兩塊:一塊是經(jīng)過許可,或者說是集中式的元宇宙(比如科技平臺),另一塊是“開放的元宇宙”,即去中心化的區(qū)塊鏈,包含像非同質(zhì)化代幣(NFT)這類東西?!拔艺J為,開放元宇宙和其他一切領(lǐng)域的區(qū)別將越來越明顯?!迸翣柲恢痹诿芮嘘P(guān)注開放元宇宙。
他宣稱,到目前為止,在區(qū)塊鏈支持的元宇宙方面,投資者的“選擇仍然非常有限,至少在公共領(lǐng)域是這樣。”
但在公開市場上,有一只目前在多倫多證券交易所交易,但計劃于2022年第一季度登陸納斯達克(Nasdaq)的股票值得關(guān)注。那就是邁克·諾沃格拉茨領(lǐng)銜的加密貨幣投資管理公司Galaxy Digital(股票代碼:GLXY,股價:16美元)。帕爾默特別提到其附屬投資機構(gòu)Galaxy Interactive。“旗下的兩只基金管理著6.5億美元,而且是上市公司的一部分?!盙alaxy Interactive正在投資NFT(這是元宇宙的一大組件)和SAND幣,后者由區(qū)塊鏈驅(qū)動的元宇宙平臺Sandbox發(fā)行?!八麄兊耐顿Y重點是開放元宇宙。”帕爾默說,“我預(yù)計未來會有更多的公司進入這一領(lǐng)域?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
所有股價的計算時間均為2022年1月18日。
譯者:任文科
In late October, social media giant Facebook announced a bold move: It was rebranding and would henceforth call itself Meta. The name change was in reference to the “metaverse,” a term that’s a bit tricky to neatly define but encompasses a network of 3D virtual spaces, often accessed through things like virtual reality or augmented reality, that can include everything from virtual meeting places to gaming to virtual concerts and shopping experiences. Many consider it a part of the next form of the internet (Web 3.0).
Facebook’s switch to the name Meta, alongside its third quarter announcement that it would spend about $10 billion on its metaverse unit in 2021, was what some on Wall Street consider a turning point for metaverse awareness.
“I think that was the inflection point for the market, and people got a heck of a lot more serious [about the metaverse] after Facebook,” suggests James Tierney, chief investment officer of concentrated U.S. growth at AllianceBernstein.
Indeed, previously, “metaverse” was a “barely used word on the Street,” Daniel Ives, managing director and senior equity analyst focused on tech at Wedbush Securities, tells Fortune. In recent months, however, “it’s become one of the hottest themes from a Wall Street perspective. Every investor is trying to figure out how to play it.”
The metaverse as a concept is nothing new, having been coined in Neal Stephenson’s novel Snow Crash in the early 1990s. But its rise in tech titans’ ambitions and the explosion of interest from consumers and companies alike have garnered serious investor attention.
At the moment, the number of “pure plays” on the metaverse are fairly limited for an equity investor. “It’s very early days, and I think many investors are tiptoeing into how to invest in the metaverse,” offers Ives, though he doesn’t think this is all just hype.
In general, money managers say they still don’t know exactly what the metaverse will look like or how it will impact business models. “The end point we’re talking about is not months and years—it’s like decades,” Ankur Crawford, executive vice president and portfolio manager at Alger, posits.
But there are plenty of companies that are investing in the metaverse, building hardware that will serve as an on-ramp to the metaverse and making products that will support its infrastructure. That’s where analysts and money managers see the most compelling opportunities—at least for now.
For investors keen on capitalizing on the burgeoning space, in one way, shape, or form, Fortune asked portfolio managers and analysts which stocks they could bet on.
The tech giant play
The battle for who will win the metaverse is just heating up, and Big Tech isn’t about to sit on the sidelines.
In fact, companies are pouring billions into building out their contributions to the metaverse. For some money managers like AllianceBernstein’s Tierney, “we’d much rather have a company like…a Facebook, like a Microsoft, like an Amazon that has a play” on the metaverse, “that has plenty of potential upside, but the base business is going to drive [the stock] up,” even if, five or 10 years down the road, the metaverse turns out to “be a complete zero.”
It’s no surprise, then, that money managers like Tierney believe Meta (FB, $318), formerly Facebook, is the “best way to play” the metaverse. Meta has made its ambitions to dominate the metaverse abundantly clear, with its Oculus VR headset business and the company’s vision of living, gaming, and meeting in a 3D virtual space, like Meta’s Horizon platform. Tierney notes Meta has a few strengths for investors: “Their base business is strong, continuing to grow; we think there’s a good growth runway there,” he says (the Street expects Meta to grow revenue by 19% in the 2022 fiscal year). But he frames Meta’s $10 billion investment in its metaverse unit in 2021 (and more moving forward) as a potential plus from a valuation standpoint: Meta’s current trailing price/earnings ratio is under 24 times earnings; take “that spending away and you’re [in the] high teens or around 20 P/E. So you’re [either] underappreciating the base business, or you’re getting the metaverse option for free,” he suggests. “Either way, as an investor, I think that’s pretty attractive.” What’s more, he believes the fact that Meta is shelling out the big bucks for the metaverse is a “bit of a moat around their business” against more up-and-coming competitors. However, the company is still facing headwinds in the real world, including an antitrust lawsuit that could potentially force it to sell its prized Instagram and WhatsApp businesses, and a reported Federal Trade Commission-led probe over its VR business for possible anticompetitive practices.
Meanwhile Microsoft (MSFT, $303) has also made its “hunger to become more of a metaverse play” known, as Wedbush’s Ives puts it, with its intention to work on metaverse games for Xbox (the company also just agreed to buy video-game maker Activision Blizzard for roughly $69 billion) and its move to incorporate metaverse capabilities into its product suite, like its recently announced Mesh for Teams, an avatar-populated meeting space for companies (as part of its mixed reality Mesh platform). Ives, for one, predicts the company “is going to be aggressive both organically as well as through acquisitions in terms of attacking the metaverse.” Alger’s Crawford also believes Microsoft should be a “dominant player in the ’enterprise metaverse’” pointing to its HoloLens mixed reality product, which helps companies (and even customers like the U.S. Army) improve efficiency through things like training and job support, and is ripe for the metaverse (though its current iteration “isn’t quite as developed as it should be,” she suggests). AllianceBernstein’s Tierney also notes their cloud business Azure should benefit over time if the metaverse takes off.
That’s also true of Amazon (AMZN, $3,178), he says, whose Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud unit should make both stocks “natural plays.” But outside of the cloud, one “home run” application of the metaverse and VR could be helping retail businesses that sell things like apparel reduce the cost of online returns, Tierney says. That could benefit Amazon, whose e-commerce business is a “meaningful” part of the company (there are already functions like virtual try-on, and Amazon has long been maneuvering to reduce returns with things like 3D models, though Tierney notes "capabilities will improve").“Using some of these tools to reduce the return rate is going to be a huge No. 1 sales booster, but secondly, and more importantly, a huge profit improver if you can cut down on the returns,” Tierney notes. “I think that makes a whole lot of sense for Amazon to get in simply for that reason alone.” At its current levels, however, the stock is expensive, trading at nearly 82 times forward earnings.
Tech giant Apple (AAPL, $170), meanwhile, is also on money managers’ lists as a company that could benefit from the metaverse, likely through hardware or potentially as a builder of places in the metaverse—or, as Alger’s Crawford hopes, both. Apple “is a trusted platform by many consumers, and the consumer metaverse is the natural extension of what they have today,” Crawford suggests. Analysts like Wedbush’s Ives predict Apple will launch a VR/AR headset this year, a product that’s been rumored but not yet announced by the company. If and when such a product comes to market, Ives believes “that will be a watershed event around the highway on to the metaverse.”
Indeed, Ives suggests, “The first part of the metaverse is getting consumers on to the metaverse, and a lot of that is going to be through Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft.”
The infrastructure bet
It may not be the sexiest way to play the metaverse, but for investors not wishing to put all their eggs in one metaverse winner’s basket, opting for stocks that will build the infrastructure for the metaverse, like semiconductors, can provide a safer bet while still offering exposure to the trend. And it could eventually be a lucrative choice: In December, Intel predicted that there would need to be a massive 1,000 times increase in computational power if the metaverse were to truly take form.
According to those like Brian Colello, director of technology equity research at Morningstar, the “most concrete effort in the metaverse is Facebook’s capital expenditure plans and how they plan to build out data center capacity for the metaverse right away,” he tells Fortune. “That’s a boost for companies with cloud and data center exposure.” Stocks that fit that bill, Colello says, include AMD (AMD, $132) and Arista Networks (ANET, $127).
One name Crawford says she’s “super excited about” is semiconductor titan Nvidia (NVDA, $259), whose products like graphics processing units (GPUs) should make it “a huge beneficiary” of the metaverse, given its infrastructure will depend on lots of computing. “They’ve become almost an enabler on the compute side,” says Crawford. “On a go forward basis, every device…will likely need to have a graphics engine, not to mention all the compute that will need to be done in the cloud somewhere.” She also points to the firm’s platform Omniverse, which lets creators “build sites, digital twins of towns and cities, which then run on [Nvidia] GPUs or potentially inside of a [Nvidia]-run data center.” Therefore Nvidia “plays in both the hardware—compute—as well as the software creation,” she notes. All of that could boost Nvidia’s already strong business: Analysts project Nvidia can grow revenues by roughly 18% in the 2022 fiscal year, though the stock trades at a lofty 52 times forward earnings having run up 124% in 2021.
For a less expensive stock valuation-wise, both Crawford and Shekhar Pramanick, a portfolio manager of the Columbia Seligman Global Technology Fund, favor Micron Technology (MU, $93), a semiconductor company that makes memory and storage chips. For the metaverse to work, with its headsets and data centers and platforms, “you’re going to need to do fast compute, [and] you’re going to need the memory for that,” Crawford says. All that high compute processing “usually has a large amount of memory and DRAM, dynamic RAM, as well as something called flash memory for storage,” notes Pramanick. That’s where Micron comes in. In fact, Crawford estimates that the adoption of compute “l(fā)ocally and in the cloud” will fuel the need for memory (and Micron’s memory chips), and even a “small inflection in demand” could see DRAM chip growth increasing by two to three times “in each end point” over time to serve the metaverse, she predicts. Micron trades at a modest forward P/E of under 11, and the Street expects the company can grow sales by 16% in the fiscal year ending August 2022.
Those trends could also bode well for Lam Research (LRCX, $679), an equipment supplier that makes gear companies use to produce semiconductors. Pramanick believes Lam will benefit from the “added computing and memory demand that the metaverse will bring.” At a forward price/earnings ratio of roughly 20, the stock won’t break the bank, and analysts estimate it can grow revenues by over 20% in the fiscal year ending June 2022 (though growth is expected to taper off to single digits the following year).
When it comes to practically accessing the metaverse through something like a VR headset, the last thing consumers want is to have visuals that create “motion sickness and jerkiness” if the “display drivers are not operating at a very high frequency” in the headset, notes Pramanick. That’s where companies like Synaptics (SYNA, $234) stand to benefit. Synaptics makes, among other things, display driver chips that go into AR and VR headsets, “which require very high-resolution displays,” Pramanick says. What’s more, he likes the company’s underlying business, pointing out that it has a relatively new management team (with CEO Michael Hurlston hired in 2019) that has “completely changed the company,” and has improved operating profits and gross margins—the latter of which increased from around 44% in the quarter ended September 2020 to over 53% in the same quarter in 2021. Though not currently a large portion of the company’s revenue, CEO Hurlston said in the company’s latest earnings call that its VR component has “become something a little bit more meaningful” and that he saw “really good growth prospects.”
All those chips will need to be tested, of course, which is where a stock like Teradyne (TER, $156) could come in. Along with competitor Advantest, the pair have about 80% to 90% of the total market share, according to Bloomberg. Pramanick also points out that Teradyne’s core business is chugging along: The company is “extremely profitable,” Pramanick notes, with nearly $1 billion in profits over the past 12 months (and analysts estimate Teradyne can grow earnings by nearly 12% in the 2022 fiscal year).
Meanwhile Matterport (MTTR, $13), a spatial data company that renders 3D versions of real-life buildings, could be another play on the metaverse. In Ives of Wedbush’s words, Matterport “basically [creates] digital twins of real estate that now will start to be used more and more in a digital world.” He also highlights the company’s partnership with Meta on a data set of 3D spaces for academic research, and expects “them to have more technology partnerships to ink.” Matterport’s stock rose over 45% in 2021 (it began trading via a SPAC merger in July), and the Street estimates it can grow revenues by nearly 47% in 2022.
The crypto angle
The metaverse, according to those like BTIG fintech and crypto analyst and managing director Mark Palmer, can be split into two: one more permissioned, or centralized, metaverse (think tech platforms), and the “open metaverse,” which is the decentralized blockchain sphere that entails things like NFTs. “I think that, increasingly, that distinction is going to be made between the open metaverse and everything else,” he says. Palmer’s focus is on the open metaverse.
He declares that as of right now, investors are “quite limited, at least in the public realm,” in ways to play the blockchain-enabled aspect of the metaverse.
But one stock that is on the public market (currently trading on the Toronto stock exchange, though it plans to list on the Nasdaq in the first quarter of 2022) is Galaxy Digital (TSX: GLXY, $16), the crypto investment manager headed up by Mike Novogratz. In particular, Palmer points to the firm’s investment affiliate, Galaxy Interactive—“This is $650 million spread between two funds, and it’s part of a publicly traded company,” Palmer notes. Galaxy Interactive is investing in NFTs (a big component in the metaverse) and the SAND token from the Sandbox, a blockchain-enabled metaverse platform. “What they’re investing in is, for the most part, the open metaverse,” says Palmer. “That’s where I anticipate there are gonna be a lot more ways to play that going forward.”
All stock prices calculated as of Jan. 18, 2022.