大量出現(xiàn)的新生成式人工智能工具,號(hào)稱要成為上班族的“助手”和“隊(duì)友”。在關(guān)于自動(dòng)化是否會(huì)消滅人類工作的辯論中,這些工具的出現(xiàn)帶來了新的變化。
雖然新技術(shù)的支持者們強(qiáng)調(diào)它有潛力引領(lǐng)人類進(jìn)入人類與人工智能協(xié)作的新時(shí)代,但許多批評者擔(dān)心,這種合作最終將演變成接管,將有數(shù)以百萬計(jì)的工作崗位和技能逐步被人工智能技術(shù)取代。
軟件公司ServiceNow及其研究合作伙伴培生(Pearson)的最新報(bào)告顯示,這兩種觀點(diǎn)都有一定的道理。
這份報(bào)告分析了ChatGPT和其他人工智能工具未來將如何重塑職場。報(bào)告估計(jì),對于數(shù)百萬人而言,人工智能將“助力”他們的工作,使人們可以將工作重心向創(chuàng)意和分析工作傾斜。但將有更多人需要完全接受重新培訓(xùn),因?yàn)槿斯ぶ悄軐⑻蕴麄兊墓ぷ鲘徫弧?/p>
報(bào)告稱,這兩個(gè)結(jié)果在不同國家和不同行業(yè)有巨大差異。
例如,報(bào)告稱,在美國,到2027年,將有490萬個(gè)工作崗位因?yàn)槿斯ぶ悄芗夹g(shù)得到助力。在人工智能技術(shù)的幫助下,員工承擔(dān)的繁瑣的工作任務(wù)將會(huì)減少。ServiceNow表示:“讓機(jī)器從事它們所擅長的任務(wù),人類就可以變得不再像機(jī)器一樣?!?/p>
報(bào)告估計(jì),到2027年,新技術(shù)創(chuàng)造的機(jī)會(huì),將在美國創(chuàng)造590萬個(gè)新就業(yè)崗位。但這些好處卻是以約2,350萬人的工作崗位因?yàn)槿斯ぶ悄鼙惶蕴瓰榇鷥r(jià)。
為了更深入地了解顛覆性技術(shù)可能對不同國家6,500多個(gè)崗位的影響,培生的數(shù)據(jù)分析師創(chuàng)建了機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)模型,對從事特定崗位的技能和任務(wù)要求進(jìn)行分析。然后,他們評估自動(dòng)化和增強(qiáng)技術(shù)對這些崗位的影響,確定最簡單的向未來崗位遷移的路徑。
報(bào)告稱,在英國、日本和美國,零售業(yè)受自動(dòng)化影響的員工人數(shù),是其他任一主要行業(yè)的兩倍。
在印度,制造業(yè)將經(jīng)歷最大變化,因?yàn)橛《戎圃鞓I(yè)的物理過程,尚未像其他國家一樣被自動(dòng)化所改變。報(bào)告估計(jì),印度將有460萬個(gè)就業(yè)崗位被人工智能增強(qiáng),與美國相當(dāng),到2027年印度將有1,620萬個(gè)就業(yè)崗位被淘汰,將創(chuàng)造470萬個(gè)新就業(yè)崗位。
報(bào)告顯示,人工智能技術(shù)在職場的廣泛應(yīng)用將增加對“流程自動(dòng)化工程師”、“平臺(tái)負(fù)責(zé)人”、“咨詢臺(tái)支持人員”和“數(shù)據(jù)分析師”等崗位的需求。
報(bào)告稱:“通過恰當(dāng)?shù)闹匦屡嘤?xùn),受到人工智能影響的非技術(shù)類員工未來也可以從事技術(shù)崗位?!?
這份報(bào)告出爐的時(shí)間,恰逢許多公司正在努力應(yīng)對人工智能帶來的快速變化,就連科技公司對于在職場應(yīng)用人工智能的立場都存在分歧。例如,三星(Samsung)禁止使用ChatGPT等程序,因?yàn)樗赡軒戆踩L(fēng)險(xiǎn)。阿爾溫德·克里希納領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的IBM等公司卻將人工智能視為削減成本的一種途徑。
上個(gè)月,克里希納宣布對于可能很快被人工智能取代的崗位,將放慢或暫停招聘??死锵<{提到人力資源等后臺(tái)崗位稱,可以想象在“未來五年人工智能和自動(dòng)化將取代”數(shù)以千計(jì)的工作崗位。但I(xiàn)BM很快又承諾不會(huì)因?yàn)閼?yīng)用人工智能而進(jìn)行裁員。
報(bào)告中警告,公司簡單地取消工作崗位,不對員工進(jìn)行重新培訓(xùn),這并不是最好的做法。ServiceNow對《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“公司簡單地用技術(shù)取代員工,是短視的表現(xiàn)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
大量出現(xiàn)的新生成式人工智能工具,號(hào)稱要成為上班族的“助手”和“隊(duì)友”。在關(guān)于自動(dòng)化是否會(huì)消滅人類工作的辯論中,這些工具的出現(xiàn)帶來了新的變化。
雖然新技術(shù)的支持者們強(qiáng)調(diào)它有潛力引領(lǐng)人類進(jìn)入人類與人工智能協(xié)作的新時(shí)代,但許多批評者擔(dān)心,這種合作最終將演變成接管,將有數(shù)以百萬計(jì)的工作崗位和技能逐步被人工智能技術(shù)取代。
軟件公司ServiceNow及其研究合作伙伴培生(Pearson)的最新報(bào)告顯示,這兩種觀點(diǎn)都有一定的道理。
這份報(bào)告分析了ChatGPT和其他人工智能工具未來將如何重塑職場。報(bào)告估計(jì),對于數(shù)百萬人而言,人工智能將“助力”他們的工作,使人們可以將工作重心向創(chuàng)意和分析工作傾斜。但將有更多人需要完全接受重新培訓(xùn),因?yàn)槿斯ぶ悄軐⑻蕴麄兊墓ぷ鲘徫弧?/p>
報(bào)告稱,這兩個(gè)結(jié)果在不同國家和不同行業(yè)有巨大差異。
例如,報(bào)告稱,在美國,到2027年,將有490萬個(gè)工作崗位因?yàn)槿斯ぶ悄芗夹g(shù)得到助力。在人工智能技術(shù)的幫助下,員工承擔(dān)的繁瑣的工作任務(wù)將會(huì)減少。ServiceNow表示:“讓機(jī)器從事它們所擅長的任務(wù),人類就可以變得不再像機(jī)器一樣?!?/p>
報(bào)告估計(jì),到2027年,新技術(shù)創(chuàng)造的機(jī)會(huì),將在美國創(chuàng)造590萬個(gè)新就業(yè)崗位。但這些好處卻是以約2,350萬人的工作崗位因?yàn)槿斯ぶ悄鼙惶蕴瓰榇鷥r(jià)。
為了更深入地了解顛覆性技術(shù)可能對不同國家6,500多個(gè)崗位的影響,培生的數(shù)據(jù)分析師創(chuàng)建了機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)模型,對從事特定崗位的技能和任務(wù)要求進(jìn)行分析。然后,他們評估自動(dòng)化和增強(qiáng)技術(shù)對這些崗位的影響,確定最簡單的向未來崗位遷移的路徑。
報(bào)告稱,在英國、日本和美國,零售業(yè)受自動(dòng)化影響的員工人數(shù),是其他任一主要行業(yè)的兩倍。
在印度,制造業(yè)將經(jīng)歷最大變化,因?yàn)橛《戎圃鞓I(yè)的物理過程,尚未像其他國家一樣被自動(dòng)化所改變。報(bào)告估計(jì),印度將有460萬個(gè)就業(yè)崗位被人工智能增強(qiáng),與美國相當(dāng),到2027年印度將有1,620萬個(gè)就業(yè)崗位被淘汰,將創(chuàng)造470萬個(gè)新就業(yè)崗位。
報(bào)告顯示,人工智能技術(shù)在職場的廣泛應(yīng)用將增加對“流程自動(dòng)化工程師”、“平臺(tái)負(fù)責(zé)人”、“咨詢臺(tái)支持人員”和“數(shù)據(jù)分析師”等崗位的需求。
報(bào)告稱:“通過恰當(dāng)?shù)闹匦屡嘤?xùn),受到人工智能影響的非技術(shù)類員工未來也可以從事技術(shù)崗位?!?
這份報(bào)告出爐的時(shí)間,恰逢許多公司正在努力應(yīng)對人工智能帶來的快速變化,就連科技公司對于在職場應(yīng)用人工智能的立場都存在分歧。例如,三星(Samsung)禁止使用ChatGPT等程序,因?yàn)樗赡軒戆踩L(fēng)險(xiǎn)。阿爾溫德·克里希納領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的IBM等公司卻將人工智能視為削減成本的一種途徑。
上個(gè)月,克里希納宣布對于可能很快被人工智能取代的崗位,將放慢或暫停招聘??死锵<{提到人力資源等后臺(tái)崗位稱,可以想象在“未來五年人工智能和自動(dòng)化將取代”數(shù)以千計(jì)的工作崗位。但I(xiàn)BM很快又承諾不會(huì)因?yàn)閼?yīng)用人工智能而進(jìn)行裁員。
報(bào)告中警告,公司簡單地取消工作崗位,不對員工進(jìn)行重新培訓(xùn),這并不是最好的做法。ServiceNow對《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“公司簡單地用技術(shù)取代員工,是短視的表現(xiàn)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
The spate of new generative A.I. tools, often billed as worker “copilots” and “teammates,” is adding a new twist to old debates about automation and job elimination.
While boosters of the new technology emphasize its potential to bring about a new era of human/A.I. collaboration, many critics worry that this partnership will turn into a takeover as millions of jobs and skills are gradually subsumed by A.I. technology.
According to a new report by software company ServiceNow and research partner Pearson, there’s truth in both views.
The report, which looks at how ChatGPT and other A.I. tools could shape the workplace in the coming years, estimates that for millions of people, A.I. will “augment” their jobs by allowing employees to lean more into the creative and analytical aspects of their roles. But an even greater number of people will need to be completely retrained because A.I. will eliminate their jobs.
And, the report says, the difference between the two outcomes will vary greatly by country and industry.
As many as 4.9 million jobs in the U.S. for example could be augmented by A.I. technology by 2027, according to the report. Thanks to A.I., the report says, employees will be less burdened with tedious tasks. “The more we allow machines to do the kinds of things they’re good at, the less humans will have to behave like machines,” ServiceNow says in the report.
An additional 5.9 million new jobs in the U.S. could be created by 2027 thanks to the opportunities created by the new technology, the report estimates. But these benefits will come at the expense of an estimated 23.5 million jobs that will be eliminated as a result of A.I.
To learn more about the impact that disruptive technologies could have on more than 6,500 occupations in multiple countries, data scientists at Pearson created machine learning models that looked at the skills and tasks required to do certain jobs. From there, they evaluated the effect that automation and augmentation would have on them and identified the easiest migration paths to future jobs.
In the U.K., Japan, and the U.S., automation will affect twice as many workers in the retail sector as in any other major industry, according to the report.
In India, meanwhile, the manufacturing industry will experience the greatest change since physical processes haven’t been as altered by automation as they have in other countries. The report estimates that India could see 4.6 million jobs augmented by A.I., on par with the U.S., while 16.2 million Indian jobs could be eliminated and 4.7 million new jobs created by 2027.
According to the report, A.I.’s spread through the workplace will drive demand for employees like “flow automation engineers,” “platform owners,” “help desk support agents,” and “data analysts.”
“With the right reskilling, nontech workers whose jobs are affected by A.I. can step into the tech roles of the future,” the report says.
The report comes at a time when businesses are grappling with the rapid changes brought by A.I., with even tech companies split on how much to embrace A.I. use in the workplace. Samsung, for example, installed a ban on programs like ChatGPT since it can present security risks. Others, like IBM, led by CEO Arvind Krishna, are eyeing A.I. as a way to cut costs.
Last month, Krishna announced a slowdown or suspension of hiring for roles that might soon be replaced by A.I. Pointing to back-office positions like those in human resources, Krishna said he could imagine thousands of roles “getting replaced by A.I. and automation over a five-year period.” That was quickly followed by a promise to not fire people as a result of A.I. implementation.
The report cautions companies that simply eliminating people’s positions without reskilling workers isn’t the best course of action. ServiceNow told Fortune that “it would be shortsighted for businesses to try and simply replace their employees with technology.”