硅谷的人工智能公司有了新死黨:美國國防部。
近幾個月來,開發(fā)生成式人工智能技術(shù)的領(lǐng)先公司紛紛建立、深化或開始尋求與軍方的合作關(guān)系,在某些情況下,這些公司甚至調(diào)整了內(nèi)部政策,或?qū)⑵渥鳛樘厥馇闆r處理,以消除國防項目中的障礙和限制。
數(shù)位了解測試情況的人士告訴《財富》雜志,美國國防部內(nèi)部的數(shù)家機(jī)構(gòu),從空軍到各種情報部門,都在積極測試來自Meta、谷歌(Google)、OpenAI、Anthropic和Mistral的人工智能模型和工具,以及來自Gladstone AI和ScaleAI等初創(chuàng)公司的技術(shù)。
對于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)而言,這是一個重大轉(zhuǎn)變。直到不久前,它們還普遍將參與國防項目視為不可逾越的紅線,甚至完全將其排除在外。然而,鑒于生成式人工智能的開發(fā)與運(yùn)行成本已攀升至數(shù)千億美元,且增長勢頭未減,人工智能公司正面臨從巨額投資中獲得部分回報的壓力??紤]到美國國防部的預(yù)算幾乎無上限,且長期以來一直對前沿技術(shù)抱有濃厚興趣,與軍方合作的前景似乎不再那么令人望而卻步。
專注于人工智能投資的紅點創(chuàng)投(Redpoint Ventures)管理合伙人埃里卡·布雷西亞(Erica Brescia)表示,盡管與國防部簽訂合同可能很棘手,需要獲得層層認(rèn)證并遵循嚴(yán)格的合規(guī)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),但“回報是巨大的”,而且資金支持可能會持續(xù)數(shù)年。
布雷西亞說:“美國國防部的合同帶來了可觀的年度合同價值(ACV),同時為企業(yè)創(chuàng)造了持續(xù)增長的機(jī)遇,并增強(qiáng)了其市場防御能力。”
布雷西亞補(bǔ)充說,最近在科技界,涉足國防項目越來越被社會所接受。企業(yè)高管們不僅關(guān)注Palantir和Anduril等專注于國防領(lǐng)域的初創(chuàng)公司獲得的數(shù)億美元合同,而且“對于那些準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對較長銷售周期和復(fù)雜部署挑戰(zhàn)的公司而言,不斷演變的政治格局使得將國防領(lǐng)域作為主要細(xì)分市場的吸引力不斷增強(qiáng)?!?/p>
投身于軍事項目可能確實很適合當(dāng)前的政治形勢,因為對商業(yè)友好的特朗普政府將于明年1月上臺,而以“第一兄弟”埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)為首的鷹派硅谷內(nèi)部人士是當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)的核心圈子。作為新成立的政府效率部(Department of Government Efficiency)的聯(lián)合負(fù)責(zé)人,馬斯克的官方職責(zé)是大幅削減支出。但很少有人預(yù)計美國國防部的預(yù)算會大幅削減,尤其是在中美兩國爭奪人工智能霸主地位的背景下。
雖然目前軍方在生成式人工智能領(lǐng)域的工作主要集中在小規(guī)模項目和測試上,但該技術(shù)未來有望成為計算領(lǐng)域的基礎(chǔ)部分,這暗示著硅谷與美國國防部之間的合作潛力將是巨大的。
人工智能在國防領(lǐng)域的應(yīng)用并不局限于無人機(jī)作戰(zhàn)或爆炸性事件。在美國國防部,許多專門針對人工智能的任務(wù)實際上是日常且瑣碎的,任何辦公室都樂于將這些工作交給可靠的技術(shù)來完成。數(shù)據(jù)標(biāo)注、收集與分類是該部門內(nèi)部人工智能的常見用途,同樣的情況也適用于ChatGPT和Claude等聊天機(jī)器人,這些機(jī)器人雖然大多數(shù)人都可以在線訪問,但在國防部的使用則需要額外的安全保障。此外,大型語言模型還能用于分析和檢索機(jī)密信息、協(xié)助政府網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全任務(wù),以及提升機(jī)器人工具、無人機(jī)和坦克等的計算機(jī)視覺和自主能力。
一位前國防部官員在談到獲得采購合同的公司時告訴《財富》雜志,一些科技公司確實會特意回避可能被用于“殺傷鏈”的國防部項目。“殺傷鏈”是軍事術(shù)語,指的是對敵攻擊環(huán)節(jié)構(gòu)成的鏈條。然而,這種顧慮有時會隨著數(shù)百萬或數(shù)十億美元的資金到位而煙消云散。“一旦涉足其中,你就會尋求進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)張?!边@位人士補(bǔ)充道。
不斷變化的規(guī)則
一些科技公司,如Palantir和Anduril,多年來一直將國防領(lǐng)域的應(yīng)用和合同作為其整個業(yè)務(wù)的支柱。
在硅谷,無論是老牌的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司還是新興的人工智能初創(chuàng)企業(yè),往往會回避軍事項目,原因是這些公司尋求招募和留住左傾的工程人才。據(jù)報導(dǎo),谷歌在2014年收購DeepMind時承諾,絕不將該公司的技術(shù)用于軍事用途。2018年,Alphabet的首席執(zhí)行官桑達(dá)爾·皮查伊(Sundar Pichai)因公司參與美國國防部的無人機(jī)作戰(zhàn)項目梅文計劃(Project Maven)而遭到公司內(nèi)部的強(qiáng)烈反對。盡管谷歌堅稱其技術(shù)僅用于分析無人機(jī)視頻等“非攻擊性任務(wù)”,但員工的抗議聲浪迫使皮查伊取消休假,以平息員工情緒,并最終承諾谷歌不會將人工智能技術(shù)用于武器開發(fā)。
谷歌的“人工智能原則”如今規(guī)定,它“不會追求……那些主要目的或?qū)嵤┓绞绞窃斐苫蛑苯佑糜谌松韨Φ奈淦骰蚱渌夹g(shù)”,也不會進(jìn)行“違反國際公認(rèn)準(zhǔn)則的監(jiān)視活動”。但該政策留下了很大的回旋余地,該公司明確表示不會完全放棄與軍方合作。
其他大型人工智能企業(yè)的情況也類似。Meta最初禁止其Llama模型用于軍事項目,OpenAI也是如此,而Anthropic最初建立的Claude模型標(biāo)榜“無害”。如今,這三家公司都宣布可以使用其模型從事此類項目,而且它們正在積極尋求此類項目。山姆·奧特曼是OpenAI的創(chuàng)始人之一,他曾堅持開發(fā)人工智能以“造福全人類”的原則,并曾表示有些項目他“永遠(yuǎn)不會和美國國防部合作”。此后,他從OpenAI的使用政策中刪除了此類限制的承諾。
一位專注于投資人工智能公司的風(fēng)險投資家指出,風(fēng)險投資公司安德森·霍洛維茨(Andreessen Horowitz)兩年前發(fā)表的《美國活力》(American Dynamism)一文標(biāo)志著業(yè)界對國防合同態(tài)度的轉(zhuǎn)變(不再回避相關(guān)項目)。這篇文章明確表示,那些參與國防項目的科技公司是在維護(hù)美國的國家利益。
這位風(fēng)險投資人說:“高管們逐漸認(rèn)識到,'哦,好吧,原來保衛(wèi)美國、與軍方合作實際上是一件積極的事情?!?/p>
疫情后科技公司的大規(guī)模裁員也對員工的抗議活動產(chǎn)生了寒蟬效應(yīng),使得科技公司的管理層在涉足軍事業(yè)務(wù)方面獲得了更大的自由度。
根據(jù)《財富》雜志的一項分析,美國國防部在過去兩年間已向人工智能領(lǐng)域的企業(yè)授予了近10億美元的官方合同。盡管這些合同的具體內(nèi)容尚未完全披露,但已知包括專注于自動駕駛技術(shù)的Morsecorp以及管理和咨詢企業(yè)ASGN的子公司在內(nèi)的多家公司獲得了這些合同,旨在開發(fā)新一代的人工智能原型。
并非所有此類合同都會對外公開。但是,任何由政府授予大型人工智能公司的采購合同,對于這些公司及其最大的支持者而言,都可能價值數(shù)千萬到數(shù)億美元,甚至數(shù)十億美元。
OpenAI的最大投資者微軟(Microsoft)最近表示,其Azure云服務(wù)已獲準(zhǔn)允許國防部機(jī)構(gòu)使用OpenAI的人工智能模型來處理安全等級較低的信息,這需要在專業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施上投資數(shù)年才能實現(xiàn)。同樣,Anthropic最大的支持者是亞馬遜(Amazon)。亞馬遜云科技(Amazon Web Services)可能是美國國防部最大的單一云服務(wù)提供商,擁有價值數(shù)百億美元的政府合同。對于這兩家公司來說,為國防部的產(chǎn)品增加新人工智能服務(wù)和工具,可能會被證明是非常有價值的。谷歌及其Gemini人工智能模型也獲得了價值極高的政府合同。
一位人工智能領(lǐng)域的高管向《財富》雜志透露:“他們基本上是一邊造飛機(jī),一邊開飛機(jī),因此這是一場大規(guī)模的地盤爭奪戰(zhàn)?!彼傅氖?,越來越多的科技公司突然之間急切地希望將自己的人工智能工具和模型交到美國國防部手中。
國防部的“關(guān)鍵”技術(shù)
美國國防部將人工智能列為其14個“關(guān)鍵技術(shù)領(lǐng)域”之一,認(rèn)為它具有“巨大的潛力”,并且是“決定未來沖突主導(dǎo)權(quán)的緊迫任務(wù)”。
大約一年前,美國國防部正式成立了戰(zhàn)略資本辦公室,這是一項與美國小企業(yè)管理局(Small Business Administration)合作的新聯(lián)邦信貸項目,旨在通過直接貸款方式為人工智能等關(guān)鍵技術(shù)領(lǐng)域提供資金支持。在2024財年,戰(zhàn)略資本辦公室計劃向10家專注于自主機(jī)器人和微電子制造等領(lǐng)域的公司提供9.84億美元,其中通常包括人工智能芯片制造。美國國防部還計劃投資約7億美元用于芯片制造和國內(nèi)半導(dǎo)體制造,這對人工智能芯片的制造至關(guān)重要。
盡管投入了數(shù)十億美元,而且美國國防部內(nèi)部對人工智能的投入也沒有放緩的跡象,但這位人工智能領(lǐng)域的高管承認(rèn),目前大多數(shù)人工智能產(chǎn)品在實用性方面“尚未達(dá)到預(yù)期”,無論是對國防部還是對廣大民眾而言。然而,在政府或軍事領(lǐng)域大規(guī)模部署這些產(chǎn)品,有望加速它們的改進(jìn)和實用化?!败姺綄嶋H上也是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的創(chuàng)造者?!卑⑴辆W(wǎng)是現(xiàn)代互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)基礎(chǔ),與雷達(dá)和全球定位系統(tǒng)系統(tǒng)(GPS)等通用技術(shù)一樣,最初都是在國防部內(nèi)部發(fā)展起來的。
盡管像美國國防部這樣的機(jī)構(gòu)希望獲得有效的產(chǎn)品,但眾所周知,它的預(yù)算逐年增長,到2024年將接近1萬億美元。其中大約一半的預(yù)算被授予與該機(jī)構(gòu)簽訂合同的公司。
這位高管說:“坦率地說,是的,他們確實熱衷于揮霍金錢?!?/p>
杰里米·卡恩(Jeremy Kahn)和莎倫·戈德曼(Sharon Goldman)的補(bǔ)充報道。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
硅谷的人工智能公司有了新死黨:美國國防部。
近幾個月來,開發(fā)生成式人工智能技術(shù)的領(lǐng)先公司紛紛建立、深化或開始尋求與軍方的合作關(guān)系,在某些情況下,這些公司甚至調(diào)整了內(nèi)部政策,或?qū)⑵渥鳛樘厥馇闆r處理,以消除國防項目中的障礙和限制。
數(shù)位了解測試情況的人士告訴《財富》雜志,美國國防部內(nèi)部的數(shù)家機(jī)構(gòu),從空軍到各種情報部門,都在積極測試來自Meta、谷歌(Google)、OpenAI、Anthropic和Mistral的人工智能模型和工具,以及來自Gladstone AI和ScaleAI等初創(chuàng)公司的技術(shù)。
對于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)而言,這是一個重大轉(zhuǎn)變。直到不久前,它們還普遍將參與國防項目視為不可逾越的紅線,甚至完全將其排除在外。然而,鑒于生成式人工智能的開發(fā)與運(yùn)行成本已攀升至數(shù)千億美元,且增長勢頭未減,人工智能公司正面臨從巨額投資中獲得部分回報的壓力??紤]到美國國防部的預(yù)算幾乎無上限,且長期以來一直對前沿技術(shù)抱有濃厚興趣,與軍方合作的前景似乎不再那么令人望而卻步。
專注于人工智能投資的紅點創(chuàng)投(Redpoint Ventures)管理合伙人埃里卡·布雷西亞(Erica Brescia)表示,盡管與國防部簽訂合同可能很棘手,需要獲得層層認(rèn)證并遵循嚴(yán)格的合規(guī)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),但“回報是巨大的”,而且資金支持可能會持續(xù)數(shù)年。
布雷西亞說:“美國國防部的合同帶來了可觀的年度合同價值(ACV),同時為企業(yè)創(chuàng)造了持續(xù)增長的機(jī)遇,并增強(qiáng)了其市場防御能力。”
布雷西亞補(bǔ)充說,最近在科技界,涉足國防項目越來越被社會所接受。企業(yè)高管們不僅關(guān)注Palantir和Anduril等專注于國防領(lǐng)域的初創(chuàng)公司獲得的數(shù)億美元合同,而且“對于那些準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對較長銷售周期和復(fù)雜部署挑戰(zhàn)的公司而言,不斷演變的政治格局使得將國防領(lǐng)域作為主要細(xì)分市場的吸引力不斷增強(qiáng)。”
投身于軍事項目可能確實很適合當(dāng)前的政治形勢,因為對商業(yè)友好的特朗普政府將于明年1月上臺,而以“第一兄弟”埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)為首的鷹派硅谷內(nèi)部人士是當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)的核心圈子。作為新成立的政府效率部(Department of Government Efficiency)的聯(lián)合負(fù)責(zé)人,馬斯克的官方職責(zé)是大幅削減支出。但很少有人預(yù)計美國國防部的預(yù)算會大幅削減,尤其是在中美兩國爭奪人工智能霸主地位的背景下。
雖然目前軍方在生成式人工智能領(lǐng)域的工作主要集中在小規(guī)模項目和測試上,但該技術(shù)未來有望成為計算領(lǐng)域的基礎(chǔ)部分,這暗示著硅谷與美國國防部之間的合作潛力將是巨大的。
人工智能在國防領(lǐng)域的應(yīng)用并不局限于無人機(jī)作戰(zhàn)或爆炸性事件。在美國國防部,許多專門針對人工智能的任務(wù)實際上是日常且瑣碎的,任何辦公室都樂于將這些工作交給可靠的技術(shù)來完成。數(shù)據(jù)標(biāo)注、收集與分類是該部門內(nèi)部人工智能的常見用途,同樣的情況也適用于ChatGPT和Claude等聊天機(jī)器人,這些機(jī)器人雖然大多數(shù)人都可以在線訪問,但在國防部的使用則需要額外的安全保障。此外,大型語言模型還能用于分析和檢索機(jī)密信息、協(xié)助政府網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全任務(wù),以及提升機(jī)器人工具、無人機(jī)和坦克等的計算機(jī)視覺和自主能力。
一位前國防部官員在談到獲得采購合同的公司時告訴《財富》雜志,一些科技公司確實會特意回避可能被用于“殺傷鏈”的國防部項目?!皻湣笔擒娛滦g(shù)語,指的是對敵攻擊環(huán)節(jié)構(gòu)成的鏈條。然而,這種顧慮有時會隨著數(shù)百萬或數(shù)十億美元的資金到位而煙消云散?!耙坏┥孀闫渲校憔蜁で筮M(jìn)一步擴(kuò)張。”這位人士補(bǔ)充道。
不斷變化的規(guī)則
一些科技公司,如Palantir和Anduril,多年來一直將國防領(lǐng)域的應(yīng)用和合同作為其整個業(yè)務(wù)的支柱。
在硅谷,無論是老牌的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司還是新興的人工智能初創(chuàng)企業(yè),往往會回避軍事項目,原因是這些公司尋求招募和留住左傾的工程人才。據(jù)報導(dǎo),谷歌在2014年收購DeepMind時承諾,絕不將該公司的技術(shù)用于軍事用途。2018年,Alphabet的首席執(zhí)行官桑達(dá)爾·皮查伊(Sundar Pichai)因公司參與美國國防部的無人機(jī)作戰(zhàn)項目梅文計劃(Project Maven)而遭到公司內(nèi)部的強(qiáng)烈反對。盡管谷歌堅稱其技術(shù)僅用于分析無人機(jī)視頻等“非攻擊性任務(wù)”,但員工的抗議聲浪迫使皮查伊取消休假,以平息員工情緒,并最終承諾谷歌不會將人工智能技術(shù)用于武器開發(fā)。
谷歌的“人工智能原則”如今規(guī)定,它“不會追求……那些主要目的或?qū)嵤┓绞绞窃斐苫蛑苯佑糜谌松韨Φ奈淦骰蚱渌夹g(shù)”,也不會進(jìn)行“違反國際公認(rèn)準(zhǔn)則的監(jiān)視活動”。但該政策留下了很大的回旋余地,該公司明確表示不會完全放棄與軍方合作。
其他大型人工智能企業(yè)的情況也類似。Meta最初禁止其Llama模型用于軍事項目,OpenAI也是如此,而Anthropic最初建立的Claude模型標(biāo)榜“無害”。如今,這三家公司都宣布可以使用其模型從事此類項目,而且它們正在積極尋求此類項目。山姆·奧特曼是OpenAI的創(chuàng)始人之一,他曾堅持開發(fā)人工智能以“造福全人類”的原則,并曾表示有些項目他“永遠(yuǎn)不會和美國國防部合作”。此后,他從OpenAI的使用政策中刪除了此類限制的承諾。
一位專注于投資人工智能公司的風(fēng)險投資家指出,風(fēng)險投資公司安德森·霍洛維茨(Andreessen Horowitz)兩年前發(fā)表的《美國活力》(American Dynamism)一文標(biāo)志著業(yè)界對國防合同態(tài)度的轉(zhuǎn)變(不再回避相關(guān)項目)。這篇文章明確表示,那些參與國防項目的科技公司是在維護(hù)美國的國家利益。
這位風(fēng)險投資人說:“高管們逐漸認(rèn)識到,'哦,好吧,原來保衛(wèi)美國、與軍方合作實際上是一件積極的事情。’”
疫情后科技公司的大規(guī)模裁員也對員工的抗議活動產(chǎn)生了寒蟬效應(yīng),使得科技公司的管理層在涉足軍事業(yè)務(wù)方面獲得了更大的自由度。
根據(jù)《財富》雜志的一項分析,美國國防部在過去兩年間已向人工智能領(lǐng)域的企業(yè)授予了近10億美元的官方合同。盡管這些合同的具體內(nèi)容尚未完全披露,但已知包括專注于自動駕駛技術(shù)的Morsecorp以及管理和咨詢企業(yè)ASGN的子公司在內(nèi)的多家公司獲得了這些合同,旨在開發(fā)新一代的人工智能原型。
并非所有此類合同都會對外公開。但是,任何由政府授予大型人工智能公司的采購合同,對于這些公司及其最大的支持者而言,都可能價值數(shù)千萬到數(shù)億美元,甚至數(shù)十億美元。
OpenAI的最大投資者微軟(Microsoft)最近表示,其Azure云服務(wù)已獲準(zhǔn)允許國防部機(jī)構(gòu)使用OpenAI的人工智能模型來處理安全等級較低的信息,這需要在專業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施上投資數(shù)年才能實現(xiàn)。同樣,Anthropic最大的支持者是亞馬遜(Amazon)。亞馬遜云科技(Amazon Web Services)可能是美國國防部最大的單一云服務(wù)提供商,擁有價值數(shù)百億美元的政府合同。對于這兩家公司來說,為國防部的產(chǎn)品增加新人工智能服務(wù)和工具,可能會被證明是非常有價值的。谷歌及其Gemini人工智能模型也獲得了價值極高的政府合同。
一位人工智能領(lǐng)域的高管向《財富》雜志透露:“他們基本上是一邊造飛機(jī),一邊開飛機(jī),因此這是一場大規(guī)模的地盤爭奪戰(zhàn)?!彼傅氖牵絹碓蕉嗟目萍脊就蝗恢g急切地希望將自己的人工智能工具和模型交到美國國防部手中。
國防部的“關(guān)鍵”技術(shù)
美國國防部將人工智能列為其14個“關(guān)鍵技術(shù)領(lǐng)域”之一,認(rèn)為它具有“巨大的潛力”,并且是“決定未來沖突主導(dǎo)權(quán)的緊迫任務(wù)”。
大約一年前,美國國防部正式成立了戰(zhàn)略資本辦公室,這是一項與美國小企業(yè)管理局(Small Business Administration)合作的新聯(lián)邦信貸項目,旨在通過直接貸款方式為人工智能等關(guān)鍵技術(shù)領(lǐng)域提供資金支持。在2024財年,戰(zhàn)略資本辦公室計劃向10家專注于自主機(jī)器人和微電子制造等領(lǐng)域的公司提供9.84億美元,其中通常包括人工智能芯片制造。美國國防部還計劃投資約7億美元用于芯片制造和國內(nèi)半導(dǎo)體制造,這對人工智能芯片的制造至關(guān)重要。
盡管投入了數(shù)十億美元,而且美國國防部內(nèi)部對人工智能的投入也沒有放緩的跡象,但這位人工智能領(lǐng)域的高管承認(rèn),目前大多數(shù)人工智能產(chǎn)品在實用性方面“尚未達(dá)到預(yù)期”,無論是對國防部還是對廣大民眾而言。然而,在政府或軍事領(lǐng)域大規(guī)模部署這些產(chǎn)品,有望加速它們的改進(jìn)和實用化?!败姺綄嶋H上也是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的創(chuàng)造者?!卑⑴辆W(wǎng)是現(xiàn)代互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)基礎(chǔ),與雷達(dá)和全球定位系統(tǒng)系統(tǒng)(GPS)等通用技術(shù)一樣,最初都是在國防部內(nèi)部發(fā)展起來的。
盡管像美國國防部這樣的機(jī)構(gòu)希望獲得有效的產(chǎn)品,但眾所周知,它的預(yù)算逐年增長,到2024年將接近1萬億美元。其中大約一半的預(yù)算被授予與該機(jī)構(gòu)簽訂合同的公司。
這位高管說:“坦率地說,是的,他們確實熱衷于揮霍金錢?!?/p>
杰里米·卡恩(Jeremy Kahn)和莎倫·戈德曼(Sharon Goldman)的補(bǔ)充報道。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Silicon Valley AI companies have a new BFF: the U.S. Department of Defense.
The leading companies developing generative AI technology have spun up, deepened, or started to pursue relationships with the military in recent months in some cases even revising or making exceptions to internal policies to remove roadblocks and restrictions on defense work.
Several agencies within the DoD, from The Air Force to various Intelligence groups, are actively testing out use cases for AI models and tools from Meta, Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Mistral, along with tech from startups like Gladstone AI and ScaleAI, several people with knowledge of the testing told Fortune.
It’s a remarkable turn of events for the internet companies, who until very recently treated defense work as if it were taboo, if not outright verboten. But with the cost to develop and run generative AI services already totaling hundreds of billions of dollars, and showing no signs of slowing, AI companies are feeling the pressure to show some returns on the massive investments. The DoD, with its essentially unlimited budget and long standing interest in cutting-edge technology, suddenly doesn’t look so bad.
Although landing a contract with Defense can be tricky, with layers of certifications to receive and strict compliance standards to follow, “the rewards are significant” and the money can come in for years, Erica Brescia, a managing partner at Redpoint Ventures who focuses on AI investing, said.
“DoD contracts provide substantial annual contract values, or ACVs, and create long-term opportunities for growth and market defensibility,” Brescia said.
Brescia added that going after Defense work has recently become more socially acceptable in tech circles. Not only are company leaders looking at the hundreds of millions of dollars in contracts that defense-focused startups like Palantir and Anduril are raking in, but the “changing political landscape” has made “pursuing defense as a primary market segment an increasingly attractive option for companies prepared to navigate longer sales cycles and handle complex deployments.”
An embrace of military work may indeed suit the political moment well, with a business-friendly Trump administration set to take office in January, and a cohort of hawkish Silicon Valley insiders, led by “First Buddy” Elon Musk, in the president elect’s inner circle. Musk’s mandate in his official role as co-head of the new Department of Government Efficiency is to sharply curtail spending. But few expect the Pentagon’s budget to see serious cutbacks, particularly when it comes to AI at a time when the U.S. and China are locked in battle for AI supremacy.
For now, much of the military’s work with generative AI appears to be small-scale projects and tests, but the potential for generative AI tech to become a fundamental aspect of computing in the future means the relationship between Silicon Valley and the Pentagon could be huge.
Defense uses of AI do not necessarily entail drone warfare or blowing things up. A lot of AI-specific work within the DoD is the more mundane activity that any office would gladly hand off to a capable technology. Data labeling, collection and sorting are common uses of AI within the department, as is the use of ChatGPT and Claude chatbots that most people can access online, but which require extra security when used by the DoD. Large language models could also prove handy for analyzing and searching classified information, aiding in government cybersecurity work, and providing better computer vision and autonomy for things like robotic tools, drones and tanks.
Some tech companies do attempt to specifically avoid being involved in DoD projects that could be utilized in “the kill chain,” a military term referring to the structure of an attack on an enemy, a former official within the DoD told Fortune regarding companies that win procurement contracts. Such concerns sometimes dissipate however, as millions, or billions, of dollars become available. “Once you get in, you want to expand,” the person added.
A changing set of rules
Some tech companies, like Palantir and Anduril, have for years made Defense uses and contracts the backbone of their entire business.
Within Silicon Valley’s established internet companies and some of its younger AI startups, however, military work was eschewed as the firms sought to recruit and retain left-leaning engineering talent. When Google acquired DeepMind in 2014, it reportedly committed never to use the startup’s technology for military purposes. And in 2018 Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai faced an internal backlash over Google’s participation in Project Maven, a Pentagon drone warfare effort. While Google insisted its technology was used for only “non offensive purposes” such as analyzing drone video footage, the employee outcry was loud enough that Pichai cancelled a vacation to reassure staff and eventually promised Google would not develop its AI for weapons.
Google’s “AI principles” now stipulate that it will “not pursue… weapons or other technologies whose principal purpose or implementation is to cause or directly facilitate injury to people,” nor for “surveillance violating internationally accepted norms.” But the policy leaves plenty of wiggle room and the company has explicitly said it will not swear off working with the military entirely.
The story is similar at other big AI players. Meta initially prohibited its Llama model from being used in military work, as did OpenAI, while Anthropic initially built its Claude model to be “harmless.” Now, all three have announced that such work with their models is fine, and they’re actively pursuing such uses. Sam Altman, who co-founded OpenAI on the principle of developing AI to “benefit humanity as a whole,” and who once said there were things he would “never do with the Department of Defense,” has since removed any commitment to such restrictions from its usage policy.
One venture capitalist focused on investing in AI companies pointed to VC firm Andreessen Horowitz’s “American Dynamism” essay two years ago as a moment when avoidance of defense contracting started to shift. The essay explicitly said tech companies working on defense were working in support of America’s national interest.
“Executives started to think, ‘Oh, ok, defending America, working with the military, is good actually,” the VC said.
The widespread post-pandemic layoffs at tech companies has also had a chilling effect on employee protests, giving tech employers more freedom to pursue military business.
The DoD has already paid out close to $1 billion in official contracts to AI companies in the last two years, according to a Fortune analysis. While details of such contracts are vague, they have been awarded to companies like Morsecorp, which is focused on autonomous vehicle technology, and a subsidiary of ASGN, a management and consulting company, to develop new AI prototypes.
Not all such contracts are made public. But any government procurement contract awarded to a major AI company would likely be worth tens of millions to hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars in revenue for those companies — and for their largest backers.
OpenAI’s largest investor is Microsoft, which recently said its Azure cloud service had been approved for DoD agencies to use OpenAI’s AI models for information at lower levels of security clearance – something that took years of investment in specialized infrastructure to achieve. Similarly, Anthropic’s largest backer is Amazon. Amazon Web Services is perhaps the single largest cloud provider to the DoD and has tens of billions of dollars worth of government contracts. For both companies, being able to add new AI services and tools to DoD offerings could prove valuable. Same goes for a company like Google, which also has secured valuable government contracts, and its Gemini AI model.
“They’re basically building the airplane while they’re flying it, so it’s a massive land grab,” one AI executive told Fortune, referring to more tech companies suddenly eager to have their AI tools and models in the hands of the DoD.
A “critical” technology for the DoD
The DoD defines AI among its 14 “critical technology areas,” as it holds “tremendous promise” and is “imperative to dominate future conflicts.”
About a year ago, the DoD officially created the Office of Strategic Capital, a new federal credit program in partnership with the Small Business Administration, in order to ensure that critical technologies like AI receive funding through direct loans. For fiscal 2024, OSC made $984 million available that it intended to hand out to 10 companies focused on things like autonomous robotics and microelectronics fabrication, which typically includes AI chip fabrication. The DoD is investing another roughly $700 million in chip fabrication and the build out of domestic semiconductor manufacturing, which is critical to the creation of AI chips.
Despite billions in investment and no signs of that slowing down within Defense, the AI executive admitted that most AI products today are simply “not that useful yet,” either for Defense or the public at large. But having them applied at scale in a government or defense environment could make them more useful, more quickly. “The military effectively created the Internet, too.” ARPANET, a key technological foundation of the modern Internet, was built within the DoD, as were now common technologies like radar and GPS systems.
Although a department like Defense wants useful products, it also famously sees its budget increase year after year, hitting just below $1 trillion in 2024. About half of that budget is awarded to companies that contract with the department.
“Honestly, yeah, they really love to blow money,” the executive said.
Additional reporting by Jeremy Kahn and Sharon Goldman.