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今年夏天算熱?過(guò)了明年和后年再看看

今年夏天算熱?過(guò)了明年和后年再看看

Chris Morris 2018-08-20
天氣預(yù)報(bào)認(rèn)為,這個(gè)階段是“反常的熱”,還不算人類(lèi)應(yīng)該擔(dān)責(zé)的全球氣候變暖問(wèn)題。

2018年的夏天真的算是酷熱,世界多地的氣溫都創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄,一刻不得喘息。

壞消息是,據(jù)一項(xiàng)新預(yù)報(bào),未來(lái)5年還將如此。

天氣預(yù)報(bào)認(rèn)為,這個(gè)階段是“反常的熱”,還不算人類(lèi)應(yīng)該擔(dān)責(zé)的全球氣候變暖問(wèn)題。

發(fā)表在《自然》雜志網(wǎng)站的一份研究報(bào)告,認(rèn)定這個(gè)星球的自然變暖趨勢(shì)(不包括人類(lèi)帶來(lái)的溫室氣體效益影響)正在起變化。

過(guò)去十年的大部分時(shí)間里,海洋振蕩之類(lèi)的因素在減緩自然變暖趨勢(shì)。但是,這些因素在變化,從而加速變暖進(jìn)程,我們也將看到更多的高溫紀(jì)錄。

這個(gè)趨勢(shì)下,地球已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷了史上最熱的4年。加州大學(xué)伯克利分校的一位追蹤氣候變化的研究者認(rèn)為,我們恐怕再也回不到如2014年那般涼爽的天氣了。

負(fù)責(zé)這項(xiàng)研究的科學(xué)家指出,盡管我們會(huì)看到變暖的提速——58%的機(jī)率地球整體氣溫在未來(lái)5年變得異常熱,69%機(jī)率地球上的海洋變熱——但還不是板上釘釘。

這份研究也沒(méi)有把人稱厄爾尼諾的氣候現(xiàn)象考慮進(jìn)去,這一現(xiàn)象也影響溫度。

主導(dǎo)此項(xiàng)研究的科學(xué)家打趣說(shuō),現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始囤積短褲應(yīng)該是個(gè)好主意。

這份研究的聯(lián)合作者、法國(guó)國(guó)家科學(xué)研究中心的科學(xué)家弗洛瑞安·塞韋萊克告訴華盛頓郵報(bào):“我們發(fā)現(xiàn)在未來(lái)5年左右,極可能出現(xiàn)相較于反常寒冷的反常炎熱氣候?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:宣峰

Summer 2018 has been nothing short of brutal. Record temperatures have been set worldwide and we’ve seen little relief.

Bad news: None is on the way for the next five years, either, according to a new forecast.

Forecasters say the period will be ‘a(chǎn)nomalously warm’ — and that’s on top of any global warming we humans are responsible for.

The study, which was published on?Nature?magazine’s website, postulates that the planet’s natural warming trend (which excludes the impact of greenhouse gasses introduced by humans) is set for a change.

For most of this decade, they say, factors such as oscillations in the oceans, have slowed down that natural warming. However, those factors are changing and that could actually accelerate the warming process, meaning more record temperatures are on the way.

This comes as Earth has already experienced the four hottest years in its history. And one researcher that tracks climate change at UC Berkeley believes it’s unlikely we’ll see temperatures as cool as they were in 2014 ever again.

The scientists in charge of this study note that while it’s likely we’ll see the acceleration of heating — there’s a 58% chance Earth’s overall temperature will be anomalously warm over the next five years, and a 69% chance Earth’s oceans will be — it’s not an absolute certainty.

The study also does not factor in the atmospheric condition known as El Ni?o, which also impacts temperatures.

Still, the scientists who conducted the research say it’s probably a good idea to stock up on shorts.

“What we found is that for the next five years or so, there is a high likelihood of an anomalously warm climate compared to anomalously cold,” Florian Sevellec, co-author of the study and a scientist at France’s National Center for Scientific Research, told the?Washington Post.

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