周四,在警察的貼身護(hù)衛(wèi)下,英國首相鮑里斯·約翰遜未戴口罩會見記者,吹捧英國在減少新冠疫情死亡人數(shù)方面取得的“巨大成功”。
然而“巨大成功”的宣言卻未引起任何轟動。幾個小時后,約翰遜政府出人意外地下令在英格蘭北部實(shí)行封鎖,以遏制大曼徹斯特地區(qū)及其周圍地區(qū)感染人數(shù)的瘋漲。封鎖令禁止400萬多個公民與鄰居舉行室內(nèi)聚會。此時英國經(jīng)濟(jì)正陷入300年來最嚴(yán)重的衰退之際。
英國仍處于高度戒備狀態(tài)。迄今為止,英國有46,000多人死亡,與鄰國相比,死亡人數(shù)過高。英國自身的統(tǒng)計機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)證實(shí),僅英格蘭一個地區(qū)的死亡人數(shù)就超過了歐洲任何一個國家的非正常死亡人數(shù)。同時,根據(jù)約翰·霍普金斯大學(xué)的“死亡率分析”,截至7月31日,英國的人均死亡率和絕對死亡人數(shù)均位居世界第三,僅次于美國和巴西。這實(shí)在太糟糕了。
事情本不應(yīng)這樣發(fā)展。在大流行最初幾周里,約翰遜本人多次聲稱,英國比大多數(shù)國家都做了更為充分的準(zhǔn)備,他還通過引用備受喜愛的國家衛(wèi)生局和世界領(lǐng)先的醫(yī)學(xué)研究機(jī)構(gòu)的說法,呼吁人們保持冷靜。
牛津大學(xué)政治思想和政治象征論專家Tae-Yeoun Keum說:“眾所周知,2020年英國的歷史性事件應(yīng)該是英國脫歐?!?/p>
但是,她補(bǔ)充說,未來有一天,歷史老師可能會向后代們傳播大流行時期英國的教訓(xùn),并特別提到那時的英國政府只有一個目標(biāo),那就是脫歐。
她說:“而不是為了應(yīng)對百年一遇的全球流行病?!?/p>
“洗洗手,繼續(xù)唱生日快樂歌"
英國防疫的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)發(fā)生在3月初。
隨著病毒席卷歐洲,英國的感染病例開始增多。但政府的方法迅速偏離了其他地區(qū)。首相及其顧問選擇了溫和的措施來對抗病毒。內(nèi)心深處,他們似乎擔(dān)心英國公眾無法忍受正在歐洲大陸實(shí)施的限制性封鎖措施。
政府在很短的時間內(nèi)考慮過“群體免疫”方法,之后就將其放棄。與此同時,即使感染人數(shù)增加,約翰遜還是推遲宣布封鎖計劃。
還是企業(yè)、公眾、甚至是英格蘭足球超級聯(lián)賽(Premier Football League)和皇室(Royal Family)等代表性英國機(jī)構(gòu)在政府給出建議之前站了出來:取消活動,并在政府下令要求學(xué)生和雇員回家之前將他們送回家。
最終英國屈服,并于3月24日進(jìn)入封鎖狀態(tài)。結(jié)果:英國經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯的時間比大多數(shù)其他歐洲國家長。但是到那時破壞已經(jīng)形成。
倫敦米德爾塞克斯大學(xué)(Middlesex University)學(xué)生體驗(yàn)辦公室員工大衛(wèi)·吉拉尼說道:“我覺得,作為一個國家,英國在感染人數(shù)較低時并沒有認(rèn)真對待它?!薄帮@然,一旦數(shù)字增加,我們才開始更認(rèn)真地對待它,但是那時已經(jīng)為時已晚。”
他說,當(dāng)歐洲其他國家急于實(shí)行越來越嚴(yán)格的封鎖措施時,“英國只是倡導(dǎo)人們洗手,然后繼續(xù)唱生日快樂歌。”
當(dāng)然,政府的科學(xué)顧問以及帝國理工學(xué)院傳染病暴發(fā)模型小組負(fù)責(zé)人的尼爾·弗格森承認(rèn),提前一周將英國封鎖起來可能會將死亡人數(shù)減少一半。盡管如此,他最終還是為政府的行動進(jìn)行了辯護(hù)。
事實(shí)證明,從長遠(yuǎn)來看,這并不是最好的選擇
4月份死亡人數(shù)飆升,新的擔(dān)憂出現(xiàn)了:在國家削減資金多年后,英國的國家醫(yī)療保健系統(tǒng)能否真正應(yīng)對一大波新冠疫情感染者?
很快,前線醫(yī)務(wù)人員防護(hù)設(shè)備嚴(yán)重短缺的問題就暴露出來。更為嚴(yán)重的是,大規(guī)模測試的起步時間比計劃的要晚很多。到4月,英國衛(wèi)生部長馬特·漢考克面臨著落后于競爭對手的測試記錄,并將英國的落后歸咎于診斷行業(yè)規(guī)模太小,并承諾要建立一個“大規(guī)模”的診斷行業(yè)。
與此同時,由于病毒死亡的必要工作者(從醫(yī)護(hù)人員到過境駕駛員)以及黑人和亞裔英國人的比例嚴(yán)重偏高。例如,一項(xiàng)政府研究發(fā)現(xiàn),死于新冠疫情的黑人人數(shù)是白人的四倍多,而這主要是由于社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素造成的。
對于因英國脫歐談判而在英國人民中失去地位的英國政府而言,失誤愈發(fā)嚴(yán)重。英國脫歐談判歷經(jīng)數(shù)年,卻收效甚微。
歷史學(xué)家以及《英國興衰:二十世紀(jì)英國史》的作者大衛(wèi)·艾格頓說道,長期以來,英國一直為自己擁有世界一流的公共機(jī)構(gòu)而感到驕傲。但這些機(jī)構(gòu)“從長遠(yuǎn)來看,并不是最好的選擇,這在政治上有很重大的意義?!彼f?!耙咔檎o英國帶來相當(dāng)廣泛的危機(jī)。”
“鮑里斯在分散國家注意力方面做得很出色”
最低點(diǎn)發(fā)生在3月27日。那時,英國政府告知公眾約翰遜的冠狀病毒檢測結(jié)果呈陽性。他被緊急送往倫敦一家醫(yī)院接受重癥監(jiān)護(hù),且一個月以來,首相基本上沒有在公眾視線范圍內(nèi)出現(xiàn)過。
約翰遜抱恙給英國政府高層留下了巨大的權(quán)力真空——因?yàn)橛鴽]有副首相,因此每日新聞發(fā)布會由各內(nèi)閣成員輪流舉行,而對于誰在政府中真正擁有最終決定權(quán)這一問題并不明確。
當(dāng)公眾由于首相抱恙開始表示同情時,首相的缺席暴露其內(nèi)閣中領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力的缺失。這也清楚地表明,英國在很大程度上依賴約翰遜的優(yōu)秀才能:擅長利用幽默感,偏好浮夸的愛國象征主義,向公眾表達(dá)心聲,同時掩蓋緊急計劃的所有實(shí)際細(xì)節(jié)。
這種方法大部分都依賴約翰遜獨(dú)特的溝通方式:隨意、引人入勝、不在乎細(xì)節(jié),并且常常帶有輕視的色彩。他經(jīng)常將批評家的擔(dān)憂—無論是針對英國脫歐談判還是大流行—都?xì)w結(jié)為反應(yīng)過度。例如,在從籌備到封鎖的整個過程中,他經(jīng)常使用新的措辭進(jìn)行呼吁,呼吁通過“壓平曲線”來“把病毒壓扁”。這一刺耳的笑話在不斷增加的死亡人數(shù)中更加醒目。
“鮑里斯善于分散人們的注意力,”英格蘭西南部的高級重癥監(jiān)護(hù)護(hù)士艾米麗·福伊爾說道?!伴_個玩笑,輕描淡寫,重新引導(dǎo)輿論,這是他的政治策略?!?/p>
“我不知道‘保持警惕’是什么意思”
約翰遜在病愈后重新開始公共生活,并開始著手規(guī)劃英國如何從封鎖中崛起。
由此產(chǎn)生了一個飽受嘲笑的電視講話,該講話中約翰遜將“待在家里”的明確指示變?yōu)椤氨3志琛钡恼]命。
約翰遜經(jīng)常使用流行語,包括去年12月他倒向多數(shù)政府,并作出令人心動的承諾,即要“實(shí)現(xiàn)脫歐”。但是這一次,消息令人困惑不解。
蘇格蘭民族黨領(lǐng)袖尼古拉·斯特金反駁說:“我不知道‘保持警惕’是什么意思?!彼a(bǔ)充說,她從報紙上得知了這一變化。斯特金命令蘇格蘭人無視約翰遜,并繼續(xù)待在家里。像威爾士和北愛爾蘭一樣,蘇格蘭選擇設(shè)定自己的步調(diào),這表明約翰遜在以交錯方式重新開放過程中往往僅代表英格蘭發(fā)言。
盡管在大流行期間區(qū)域分裂幾乎困擾著每個國家,但英國的那些分裂卻存在于具有不同身份的民族之間—這就像英國脫歐公投使得國家劃分成對未來具有不同愿景的派別:例如,英格蘭投票決定退出歐盟,而蘇格蘭投票決定留下。
當(dāng)約翰遜政府真正選擇注重細(xì)節(jié)時,又過于詳細(xì)。舉例來說,英國的重新開放計劃造成了黑色幽默式的困惑:從家庭聚會規(guī)則到在酒吧里大聲交談的限制。
牛津大學(xué)的琴說道,從始至終,約翰遜都在呼吁公眾運(yùn)用其“英國常識”智慧,這種方式在英國脫歐方面經(jīng)常提及。
她說:“從很多方面來看,英國脫歐的故事一方面是英國例外主義的故事,另一方面是證實(shí)神秘的普通人的世界觀的故事,”
“這兩個故事在政府的防疫過程中都以某種形式再次出現(xiàn)。只是這次,政府在確定人們想聽何種內(nèi)容,并據(jù)此作出反應(yīng)過程中誤判了其所依據(jù)的信息?!?/p>
“國家審計”
愛丁堡大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生名譽(yù)教授拉吉·博帕爾權(quán)衡了英國6月中旬的防疫動作,指出,回望歷史的鏡子是“一種很棒的工具,但它從未被發(fā)明?!?/p>
在大流行中,人們總是事后諸葛亮,并且世界上沒有一個政府能完美地擺脫危機(jī),因?yàn)樵谖C(jī)中往往沒有好的選擇,只有不得已的選擇。
但是,將后見之明完全拋之腦后很危險,因?yàn)楦鲊媾R著可能持續(xù)數(shù)月甚至數(shù)年的社會隔離措施和封鎖的前景,這使得從過去的選擇中吸取教訓(xùn)至關(guān)重要。
盡管各國在收集數(shù)據(jù)的方式上確實(shí)存在統(tǒng)計差異,且盡管有相反的證據(jù),但約翰遜始終將國家的高死亡人數(shù)歪曲為一種統(tǒng)計方面的誤解,以愛國的姿態(tài)宣揚(yáng)“成功”的消息。這些做法達(dá)到了不愿意妥協(xié)或不愿意與英國公眾坦誠相處的程度,其在英國多年脫歐艱難時期,已經(jīng)為人們所熟悉,因?yàn)椴淮_定的、分歧嚴(yán)重的公眾試圖摸索自己的方式,以找到更明朗的政治前途。
這種情景令人擔(dān)憂,因?yàn)槠洳粌H會影響公眾信任和安全,而且還會影響以英國為核心的國際聯(lián)盟之間的紐帶力量以及英國提升其世界地位。
艾格頓說:“我認(rèn)為這已經(jīng)非常清楚地表明了英國國家、英國政府、福利國家、精英進(jìn)行理性政治言論的能力的不足。這確實(shí)顯示了英國在世界上所處的真實(shí)地位。英國脫歐和新冠疫情之后,沒有任何知情人士或者半知情人士可以堅持認(rèn)為英國是世界上領(lǐng)先的國家之一?!?/p>
當(dāng)前進(jìn)行“國家審計”的時機(jī)已經(jīng)成熟,他警告說,“是時候清醒一下了。”(財富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:郝秀
審校:汪皓
周四,在警察的貼身護(hù)衛(wèi)下,英國首相鮑里斯·約翰遜未戴口罩會見記者,吹捧英國在減少新冠疫情死亡人數(shù)方面取得的“巨大成功”。
然而“巨大成功”的宣言卻未引起任何轟動。幾個小時后,約翰遜政府出人意外地下令在英格蘭北部實(shí)行封鎖,以遏制大曼徹斯特地區(qū)及其周圍地區(qū)感染人數(shù)的瘋漲。封鎖令禁止400萬多個公民與鄰居舉行室內(nèi)聚會。此時英國經(jīng)濟(jì)正陷入300年來最嚴(yán)重的衰退之際。
英國仍處于高度戒備狀態(tài)。迄今為止,英國有46,000多人死亡,與鄰國相比,死亡人數(shù)過高。英國自身的統(tǒng)計機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)證實(shí),僅英格蘭一個地區(qū)的死亡人數(shù)就超過了歐洲任何一個國家的非正常死亡人數(shù)。同時,根據(jù)約翰·霍普金斯大學(xué)的“死亡率分析”,截至7月31日,英國的人均死亡率和絕對死亡人數(shù)均位居世界第三,僅次于美國和巴西。這實(shí)在太糟糕了。
事情本不應(yīng)這樣發(fā)展。在大流行最初幾周里,約翰遜本人多次聲稱,英國比大多數(shù)國家都做了更為充分的準(zhǔn)備,他還通過引用備受喜愛的國家衛(wèi)生局和世界領(lǐng)先的醫(yī)學(xué)研究機(jī)構(gòu)的說法,呼吁人們保持冷靜。
牛津大學(xué)政治思想和政治象征論專家Tae-Yeoun Keum說:“眾所周知,2020年英國的歷史性事件應(yīng)該是英國脫歐?!?/p>
但是,她補(bǔ)充說,未來有一天,歷史老師可能會向后代們傳播大流行時期英國的教訓(xùn),并特別提到那時的英國政府只有一個目標(biāo),那就是脫歐。
她說:“而不是為了應(yīng)對百年一遇的全球流行病?!?/p>
“洗洗手,繼續(xù)唱生日快樂歌"
英國防疫的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)發(fā)生在3月初。
隨著病毒席卷歐洲,英國的感染病例開始增多。但政府的方法迅速偏離了其他地區(qū)。首相及其顧問選擇了溫和的措施來對抗病毒。內(nèi)心深處,他們似乎擔(dān)心英國公眾無法忍受正在歐洲大陸實(shí)施的限制性封鎖措施。
政府在很短的時間內(nèi)考慮過“群體免疫”方法,之后就將其放棄。與此同時,即使感染人數(shù)增加,約翰遜還是推遲宣布封鎖計劃。
還是企業(yè)、公眾、甚至是英格蘭足球超級聯(lián)賽(Premier Football League)和皇室(Royal Family)等代表性英國機(jī)構(gòu)在政府給出建議之前站了出來:取消活動,并在政府下令要求學(xué)生和雇員回家之前將他們送回家。
最終英國屈服,并于3月24日進(jìn)入封鎖狀態(tài)。結(jié)果:英國經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯的時間比大多數(shù)其他歐洲國家長。但是到那時破壞已經(jīng)形成。
倫敦米德爾塞克斯大學(xué)(Middlesex University)學(xué)生體驗(yàn)辦公室員工大衛(wèi)·吉拉尼說道:“我覺得,作為一個國家,英國在感染人數(shù)較低時并沒有認(rèn)真對待它。”“顯然,一旦數(shù)字增加,我們才開始更認(rèn)真地對待它,但是那時已經(jīng)為時已晚?!?/p>
他說,當(dāng)歐洲其他國家急于實(shí)行越來越嚴(yán)格的封鎖措施時,“英國只是倡導(dǎo)人們洗手,然后繼續(xù)唱生日快樂歌。”
當(dāng)然,政府的科學(xué)顧問以及帝國理工學(xué)院傳染病暴發(fā)模型小組負(fù)責(zé)人的尼爾·弗格森承認(rèn),提前一周將英國封鎖起來可能會將死亡人數(shù)減少一半。盡管如此,他最終還是為政府的行動進(jìn)行了辯護(hù)。
事實(shí)證明,從長遠(yuǎn)來看,這并不是最好的選擇
4月份死亡人數(shù)飆升,新的擔(dān)憂出現(xiàn)了:在國家削減資金多年后,英國的國家醫(yī)療保健系統(tǒng)能否真正應(yīng)對一大波新冠疫情感染者?
很快,前線醫(yī)務(wù)人員防護(hù)設(shè)備嚴(yán)重短缺的問題就暴露出來。更為嚴(yán)重的是,大規(guī)模測試的起步時間比計劃的要晚很多。到4月,英國衛(wèi)生部長馬特·漢考克面臨著落后于競爭對手的測試記錄,并將英國的落后歸咎于診斷行業(yè)規(guī)模太小,并承諾要建立一個“大規(guī)?!钡脑\斷行業(yè)。
與此同時,由于病毒死亡的必要工作者(從醫(yī)護(hù)人員到過境駕駛員)以及黑人和亞裔英國人的比例嚴(yán)重偏高。例如,一項(xiàng)政府研究發(fā)現(xiàn),死于新冠疫情的黑人人數(shù)是白人的四倍多,而這主要是由于社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素造成的。
對于因英國脫歐談判而在英國人民中失去地位的英國政府而言,失誤愈發(fā)嚴(yán)重。英國脫歐談判歷經(jīng)數(shù)年,卻收效甚微。
歷史學(xué)家以及《英國興衰:二十世紀(jì)英國史》的作者大衛(wèi)·艾格頓說道,長期以來,英國一直為自己擁有世界一流的公共機(jī)構(gòu)而感到驕傲。但這些機(jī)構(gòu)“從長遠(yuǎn)來看,并不是最好的選擇,這在政治上有很重大的意義?!彼f?!耙咔檎o英國帶來相當(dāng)廣泛的危機(jī)?!?/p>
“鮑里斯在分散國家注意力方面做得很出色”
最低點(diǎn)發(fā)生在3月27日。那時,英國政府告知公眾約翰遜的冠狀病毒檢測結(jié)果呈陽性。他被緊急送往倫敦一家醫(yī)院接受重癥監(jiān)護(hù),且一個月以來,首相基本上沒有在公眾視線范圍內(nèi)出現(xiàn)過。
約翰遜抱恙給英國政府高層留下了巨大的權(quán)力真空——因?yàn)橛鴽]有副首相,因此每日新聞發(fā)布會由各內(nèi)閣成員輪流舉行,而對于誰在政府中真正擁有最終決定權(quán)這一問題并不明確。
當(dāng)公眾由于首相抱恙開始表示同情時,首相的缺席暴露其內(nèi)閣中領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力的缺失。這也清楚地表明,英國在很大程度上依賴約翰遜的優(yōu)秀才能:擅長利用幽默感,偏好浮夸的愛國象征主義,向公眾表達(dá)心聲,同時掩蓋緊急計劃的所有實(shí)際細(xì)節(jié)。
這種方法大部分都依賴約翰遜獨(dú)特的溝通方式:隨意、引人入勝、不在乎細(xì)節(jié),并且常常帶有輕視的色彩。他經(jīng)常將批評家的擔(dān)憂—無論是針對英國脫歐談判還是大流行—都?xì)w結(jié)為反應(yīng)過度。例如,在從籌備到封鎖的整個過程中,他經(jīng)常使用新的措辭進(jìn)行呼吁,呼吁通過“壓平曲線”來“把病毒壓扁”。這一刺耳的笑話在不斷增加的死亡人數(shù)中更加醒目。
“鮑里斯善于分散人們的注意力,”英格蘭西南部的高級重癥監(jiān)護(hù)護(hù)士艾米麗·福伊爾說道?!伴_個玩笑,輕描淡寫,重新引導(dǎo)輿論,這是他的政治策略。”
“我不知道‘保持警惕’是什么意思”
約翰遜在病愈后重新開始公共生活,并開始著手規(guī)劃英國如何從封鎖中崛起。
由此產(chǎn)生了一個飽受嘲笑的電視講話,該講話中約翰遜將“待在家里”的明確指示變?yōu)椤氨3志琛钡恼]命。
約翰遜經(jīng)常使用流行語,包括去年12月他倒向多數(shù)政府,并作出令人心動的承諾,即要“實(shí)現(xiàn)脫歐”。但是這一次,消息令人困惑不解。
蘇格蘭民族黨領(lǐng)袖尼古拉·斯特金反駁說:“我不知道‘保持警惕’是什么意思?!彼a(bǔ)充說,她從報紙上得知了這一變化。斯特金命令蘇格蘭人無視約翰遜,并繼續(xù)待在家里。像威爾士和北愛爾蘭一樣,蘇格蘭選擇設(shè)定自己的步調(diào),這表明約翰遜在以交錯方式重新開放過程中往往僅代表英格蘭發(fā)言。
盡管在大流行期間區(qū)域分裂幾乎困擾著每個國家,但英國的那些分裂卻存在于具有不同身份的民族之間—這就像英國脫歐公投使得國家劃分成對未來具有不同愿景的派別:例如,英格蘭投票決定退出歐盟,而蘇格蘭投票決定留下。
當(dāng)約翰遜政府真正選擇注重細(xì)節(jié)時,又過于詳細(xì)。舉例來說,英國的重新開放計劃造成了黑色幽默式的困惑:從家庭聚會規(guī)則到在酒吧里大聲交談的限制。
牛津大學(xué)的琴說道,從始至終,約翰遜都在呼吁公眾運(yùn)用其“英國常識”智慧,這種方式在英國脫歐方面經(jīng)常提及。
她說:“從很多方面來看,英國脫歐的故事一方面是英國例外主義的故事,另一方面是證實(shí)神秘的普通人的世界觀的故事,”
“這兩個故事在政府的防疫過程中都以某種形式再次出現(xiàn)。只是這次,政府在確定人們想聽何種內(nèi)容,并據(jù)此作出反應(yīng)過程中誤判了其所依據(jù)的信息?!?/p>
“國家審計”
愛丁堡大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生名譽(yù)教授拉吉·博帕爾權(quán)衡了英國6月中旬的防疫動作,指出,回望歷史的鏡子是“一種很棒的工具,但它從未被發(fā)明?!?/p>
在大流行中,人們總是事后諸葛亮,并且世界上沒有一個政府能完美地擺脫危機(jī),因?yàn)樵谖C(jī)中往往沒有好的選擇,只有不得已的選擇。
但是,將后見之明完全拋之腦后很危險,因?yàn)楦鲊媾R著可能持續(xù)數(shù)月甚至數(shù)年的社會隔離措施和封鎖的前景,這使得從過去的選擇中吸取教訓(xùn)至關(guān)重要。
盡管各國在收集數(shù)據(jù)的方式上確實(shí)存在統(tǒng)計差異,且盡管有相反的證據(jù),但約翰遜始終將國家的高死亡人數(shù)歪曲為一種統(tǒng)計方面的誤解,以愛國的姿態(tài)宣揚(yáng)“成功”的消息。這些做法達(dá)到了不愿意妥協(xié)或不愿意與英國公眾坦誠相處的程度,其在英國多年脫歐艱難時期,已經(jīng)為人們所熟悉,因?yàn)椴淮_定的、分歧嚴(yán)重的公眾試圖摸索自己的方式,以找到更明朗的政治前途。
這種情景令人擔(dān)憂,因?yàn)槠洳粌H會影響公眾信任和安全,而且還會影響以英國為核心的國際聯(lián)盟之間的紐帶力量以及英國提升其世界地位。
艾格頓說:“我認(rèn)為這已經(jīng)非常清楚地表明了英國國家、英國政府、福利國家、精英進(jìn)行理性政治言論的能力的不足。這確實(shí)顯示了英國在世界上所處的真實(shí)地位。英國脫歐和新冠疫情之后,沒有任何知情人士或者半知情人士可以堅持認(rèn)為英國是世界上領(lǐng)先的國家之一?!?/p>
當(dāng)前進(jìn)行“國家審計”的時機(jī)已經(jīng)成熟,他警告說,“是時候清醒一下了?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
翻譯:郝秀
審校:汪皓
On Thursday, British prime minister Boris Johnson made a maskless appearance in front of reporters, elbow-bumping with police officers while touting the country's “massive success” in reducing the death toll of COVID-19.
The “massive success” declaration landed with a hollow thud. Hours later, the Johnson government ordered the surprise lockdown in the North of England to curb spikes in and around the Greater Manchester area. More than 4 million citizens were banned from holding indoor gatherings with neighbors. It comes as the British economy has plunged into what is expected to be the worst recession in 300 years.
The country is still on high alert. With more than 46,000 dead, the U.K. has so far endured a disproportionately high death toll compared to neighboring countries. The U.K.’s own statistics body has confirmed that England alone had the highest numbers of excess deaths of any European nation. Meanwhile, as of July 31, the John Hopkins’ Mortality Analyses puts the U.K. at third in the world in both per-capita, and absolute deaths—where it trails only the U.S. and Brazil. Not good company.
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Johnson himself repeatedly claimed throughout the early weeks of the pandemic that the U.K. was better prepared than most, citing the beloved National Health Service and world-leading medical research institutions as calls for calm.
“As we all know, the history-making event of 2020 for the U.K. was supposed to be Brexit,” says Tae-Yeoun Keum, an expert in political thought and symbolism at Oxford University.
But, she added, the history teachers of future generations may one day teach the lessons of pandemic-era Britain by noting that it was being run by a government with a singular purpose and little else—to get the U.K. out of the European Union.
“Not,” she said, “for the purposes of handling a once-in-a-century global pandemic.”
"Washing our hands and singing Happy Birthday."
The turning point in the U.K.’s management of the pandemic occurred in early March.
As the virus engulfed Europe, cases began to rise in the U.K. But the government’s approach quickly diverged from the rest of the region. The prime minister and his advisors opted for moderate measures to halt the virus. Deep down, they appeared to fear the British public wouldn’t tolerate the restrictive lockdown measures being enforced in continental Europe.
The government briefly flirted with the “herd immunity" approach, then abandoned it. Johnson, meanwhile, delayed announcing a lockdown plan even as numbers rose.
It was companies, the public, and even iconic British institutions like the Premier Football League and the Royal Family that stepped out ahead of government advice: cancelling events and sending students and employees home before they were ordered to do so.
The country eventually buckled, and went into lockdown on March 24. The result: the economy stayed shut for longer than most other European countries. But by then the damage was done.
“I felt like, as a country, the U.K. wasn’t taking it seriously when the numbers were low,” says David Gilani, an employee in the student experience office at London’s Middlesex University, which closed down ahead of government orders. “Obviously once the numbers were higher, we were taking it more seriously—but by that point, it was too late.”
While other European countries were rushing to enforce stricter and stricter lockdowns, he says, “the U.K. was just washing our hands and singing Happy Birthday.”
Sure enough, Neil Ferguson, a scientific advisor to the government who also leads the infectious outbreak modeling group at Imperial University, admitted that locking the country down one week earlier could have cut the death toll by half. Still, he ultimately defended the government’s actions.
'It turned out to not be the best by a long shot'
Once the death toll soared in April, there was a new concern: could the country’s national health care system, after enduring years of funding cuts, truly cope with a wave of COVID-19 cases?
It was quickly revealed frontline medical workers were doing battle with a fatal shortage of protective equipment. Adding to the problem, wide-scale testing at the start was way behind schedule. By April, health secretary Matt Hancock, facing a testing record that trailed rival nations, blamed the U.K.’s record on a small diagnostics industry, and pledged to build one “at scale.”
Meanwhile, the toll of the virus was hitting the country’s essential workers, from healthcare workers to transit drivers, as well as Black and Asian Britons, disproportionately hard. A government study found that Black men, for example, were more than four times more likely to die from COVID-19 than white men, largely due to socio-economic factors.
The missteps loomed larger for a government that had lost its standing with the British people over a Brexit negotiation that had spun on for years and accomplished so little.
The U.K. has long prided itself on the world-beating class of its public institutions, says David Edgerton, a historian and author of The Rise and Fall of the British Nation: A 20th Century History. But those institutions have “turned out not to be the best by a long shot, and that's very politically significant,” he says. “It is turning into a pretty general crisis of the British state.”
"Boris is brilliant at distracting the country"
The low point came on March 27. That's when the British government informed the public that Johnson had tested positive for coronavirus. He was rushed into intensive care at a London hospital, and for a month, the prime minister was largely out of public sight.
Johnson's illness left a gaping power vacuum at the top of the government—because Britain does not have a deputy prime minister, the daily press conferences rotated between the cabinet members, with little clarity about who in government actually had the final word.
While the illness rallied public sympathy around the prime minister, his absence exposed a leadership void in his own cabinet. It also made clear how much the country had become reliant on Johnson's great talents: using humor, and a preference for grandiose, patriotic symbolism, to speak to the hearts of the public—while glossing over any real detail of an emergency plan.
Much of that approach is wrapped up in Johnson’s singular communication style: casual, catchy, loose on the details, and often dismissive. He frequently frames his critics’ concerns—whether over Brexit negotiations, or the pandemic—as over-reactions. Throughout the lead-up to the lockdown, for example, he frequently re-framed the call to “flatten the curve” as an effort to “squash the sombrero.” It was a jarring joke that stood out amid updates on rising death tolls.
“Boris is brilliant at kind of distracting the country,” says Emily Foyle, a senior critical care nurse in England's southwest. “To make jokes, make light of things, redirect things—that’s his political strategy.”
"I don't know what 'stay alert' means"
After resuming public life after his recovery, Johnson set out to map out how the country would emerge from lockdown.
That resulted in a much-mocked televised address to switch the country from the clear directive of “stay at home” to the commandment “stay alert.”
Johnson has frequently employed catchphrases, including when he swung to a majority government in December on the catchy pledge to “Get Brexit Done.” But this time, the message confounded.
“I don’t know what ‘stay alert’ means,” retorted Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party, adding that she had learned of the change from the newspapers. Sturgeon ordered Scots to ignore Johnson, and continue to stay home. Like Wales and Northern Ireland, Scotland chose to set its own pace, revealing that throughout the staggered reopening, Johnson frequently spoke for England alone.
Though regional divisions have dogged nearly every country during the pandemic, those divisions in the U.K. exist between nations with their own distinct identities—and echo the ways the Brexit vote had carved up the country into differing visions for the futures: England, for example, voted to leave the EU. Scotland voted to stay.
When the Johnsons government did opt for detail, it was too detailed. The U.K.’s reopening plan, for example, produced darkly comedic levels of confusion: from the rules for seeing family members one at a time, to restrictions on loud conversations in pubs.
Throughout, Johnson’s appeal to the wisdom of “British common sense” was a defining theme, Oxford's Keum says, in a way that was frequently evoked in relation to Brexit.
“The story advanced by the Brexit campaign has in many ways been a story of British exceptionalism on the one hand, and a story of validating the world views of the mythical everyman on the other,” she says.
“Both these stories have resurfaced in some form in the government’s pandemic response. Only this time, the ideas informing the government’s response about what people want to hear appears to have been misjudged.”
An "audit of the nation"
Weighing the U.K.’s response to the pandemic back in mid-June, Raj Bhopal, an emeritus professor of public health at Edinburgh University, noted that the retrospectoscope is “a wonderful instrument—but it was never invented.”
In a pandemic, hindsight is always 20:20, and no government on earth has come off perfectly from a crisis that has frequently presented no good choices—only bad ones.
But to abandon hindsight entirely would be a dangerous exercise, as countries face the prospect of social distancing measures and lockdowns that will last for months, even years, making learning from past choices a crucial exercise.
And though statistical differences do exist in how countries collect data, Johnson has consistently misrepresented the country's high death toll as a statistical misunderstanding, flogging a message of patriotic "success" despite evidence to the contrary. The efforts harken back to an unwillingness to compromise, or to level honestly with the British public, that has become all-too-familiar in the years of Brexit-era purgatory, as an uncertain and badly divided public has attempted to feel its way towards a clearer political future.
It's a worrying picture that has implications not just for public trust and safety, but for the strength of the bond between the union of nations at Britain’s core—and for the country’s larger standing in the world.
“I think it’s made very clear the deficiencies of the British state, the British administration, the welfare state, the capacity for the rational political discourse of the elite,” said Edgerton. “It really shows the reality of Britain’s place in the world. After both Brexit and COVID-19, no informed person, no semi-informed person, could maintain that Britain is one of the leading countries in the world.”
The current moment is ripe for an “audit of the nation,” he warned. “It’s wake up time.”