2020年注定不尋常。面對(duì)一位大力推崇提稅、大幅授予工會(huì)權(quán)力、致力于加強(qiáng)企業(yè)監(jiān)管的新任總統(tǒng),美國商界的諸位首席執(zhí)行官竟然展現(xiàn)出了一種前所未有的歡迎態(tài)度。
作為即將上任的新總統(tǒng),拜登絕對(duì)算不上是美國大企業(yè)們的朋友。不過,他的政策能不能具體落實(shí)下來,在很大程度上還是取決于參議院的日后格局,一切都還不好說。但可以肯定的是,拜登已經(jīng)向大眾宣告了自己即將竭盡全力采取的若干項(xiàng)具體措施。自1970年起在政界摸爬滾打了50年整的拜登,堪稱思路清晰。
如果要用一句話來總結(jié)拜登的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策傾向,那么就是:中產(chǎn)及無產(chǎn)階級(jí)優(yōu)先,富人放于其次。拜登稱不上是一個(gè)共產(chǎn)主義者,在其政治生涯里的大部分時(shí)間里,他更傾向于中間派。
但去年夏天,這位中間派卻在賓夕法尼亞州鄧莫爾的一次重要演講中直言不諱地說:“建設(shè)美國的并不是華爾街的資本家,而是平凡人,可能是你的鄰居,也可能是為你提供食物的那些人?!币恢币詠恚嚹獱柕睦习傩斩际前莸窃噲D拉攏的對(duì)象。
所以,從拜登主張的商業(yè)改革政策里,我們亦能夠窺見他的思想傾向。
提高公司稅
拜登明確表示,增收公司稅會(huì)是他就任后的“第一要?jiǎng)?wù)”。
特朗普2017年出臺(tái)的《減稅及就業(yè)法案》(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act)曾經(jīng)將最高公司稅由35%降至了21%,如若日后國會(huì)批準(zhǔn)拜登政策,那么該數(shù)值會(huì)被重新抬升至28%。他還強(qiáng)調(diào):“我們不鼓勵(lì)跨國公司在海外發(fā)展,企業(yè)的海外營收部分需要雙倍繳稅。”與此同時(shí),拜登還會(huì)為回流至美國的本土或海外企業(yè)以及環(huán)境友好型、綠色投資型企業(yè)提供稅收優(yōu)惠。
提高個(gè)稅
拜登將以多種方式提高個(gè)人所得稅。
首先,個(gè)人最高邊際所得稅將從37%提升至39.6%;其次,年收入超過40萬美元的個(gè)人需增繳社會(huì)保障稅,而年收入超過100萬美元的個(gè)人還需額外增繳資本利得稅;最后,年收入超過40萬美元的個(gè)人目前所享有的分項(xiàng)扣除額將會(huì)減少,而低收入人群在將來會(huì)享受更多的稅收抵免。
“我的指導(dǎo)原則在于:普通勞動(dòng)者和富人應(yīng)該受到同樣程度的嘉賞。”拜登說道。
加強(qiáng)工會(huì)權(quán)力
“加強(qiáng)工會(huì)權(quán)力”也是特朗普政治政策的核心。
“工會(huì)造就了中產(chǎn)階級(jí)。”拜登表示:“有了工會(huì),我們才有中產(chǎn)階級(jí)。要想解決美國商業(yè)體系中的權(quán)力濫用問題,必須通過另外一種第三方權(quán)力體系進(jìn)行約束,這個(gè)第三方權(quán)力就是‘工會(huì)’?!卑莸浅兄Z,他將通過多種途徑幫助工會(huì),同時(shí)賦予工人更多更新的法律保護(hù),以此促成權(quán)力間的平衡。
他還承諾自己會(huì)以一種更嚴(yán)格的態(tài)度對(duì)待雇主,進(jìn)一步加大對(duì)于美國公司雇員們的保護(hù)力度,無論其加入工會(huì)與否。如民主黨在競選綱領(lǐng)中所述,他們“會(huì)增加勞工部的資金和人員配備,積極執(zhí)行雇員工資、工時(shí)、健康及安全相關(guān)規(guī)定?!?/p>
實(shí)施新規(guī)定
除去工會(huì)相關(guān)變革,拜登還欲出臺(tái)更多新規(guī),其中包括:(1)將最低工資提高至15美元/小時(shí);(2)為聯(lián)邦貸款項(xiàng)目建立一個(gè)公共信用報(bào)告機(jī)構(gòu);(3)重振消費(fèi)者金融保護(hù)局;(4)取消雇傭及服務(wù)合同中的強(qiáng)制仲裁條款;(5)為雇員新增最高可達(dá)12周的帶薪家庭假或醫(yī)療假;(6)加強(qiáng)企業(yè)并購交易的審查工作等等。
深化奧巴馬醫(yī)改:推出“公共醫(yī)?!?/strong>
拜登將推行一項(xiàng)惠及全民的“公共醫(yī)保”政策。他將允許醫(yī)療系統(tǒng)協(xié)商決定處方藥的定價(jià),并允許低成本藥物的進(jìn)口——而美國規(guī)模最大、占整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)18%的醫(yī)療保健行業(yè)通常會(huì)對(duì)這些措施感到深惡痛絕,因?yàn)檫@會(huì)破壞、甚至摧毀該行業(yè)一片相當(dāng)廣泛的勢力范圍。
在任期內(nèi)增加2.4萬億美元的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資
這是一項(xiàng)大部分行業(yè)一般都會(huì)支持的舉措,而且按理來說,落實(shí)起來也相對(duì)容易:國會(huì)的立法者們都希望能夠?qū)⒙?lián)邦資金回籠,因而在這一點(diǎn)上空前團(tuán)結(jié)。
但特朗普此前擔(dān)任總統(tǒng)時(shí),也想要按照自己的意愿出臺(tái)一項(xiàng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施法案,黨派之間的矛盾就非常激烈,以至于四年來,國會(huì)無法就其中的細(xì)節(jié)達(dá)成一致。拜登想要大幅改善這種局面,也將異常困難。
更宏觀的前景
一個(gè)更宏觀的問題是:拜登將如何影響整個(gè)美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)?這仍然很難說,各界也答案不一。沒有任何一位總統(tǒng)可以憑一己之力做出重大的財(cái)政政策變更——這主要還是取決于國會(huì)。
而貨幣政策更是幾乎完全不在總統(tǒng)掌控之中。Moody’s Analytics的一項(xiàng)研究結(jié)論是,拜登當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)會(huì)比特朗普連任提供更多的就業(yè)、增加人們的收入,而斯坦福大學(xué)胡佛研究所(Stanford University’s Hoover Institution)卻得出了相反的結(jié)論。普林斯頓大學(xué)(Princeton University)的研究則表示,幾乎沒有證據(jù)說明總統(tǒng)可以影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的走向。
為什么很多首席執(zhí)行官也在歡慶看似對(duì)他們不利的拜登的勝利?有一些原因是出于他們各自的特殊利益,需要具體問題具體分析,但也有些原因是普遍的。
具體而言,就是與特朗普相比,拜登不太可能將貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)升級(jí)——不僅是對(duì)中國,而且是對(duì)美國的盟友,特別是歐洲、加拿大和墨西哥。每有一家公司從這種關(guān)稅壁壘中受益,就會(huì)有其他數(shù)十家公司遭受進(jìn)口成本上升和出口關(guān)稅報(bào)復(fù)性增長的困擾。
此外,拜登對(duì)移民的威脅也可能不如特朗普。農(nóng)業(yè),建筑和技術(shù)等行業(yè)尤其依賴移民,然而特朗普上臺(tái)后實(shí)施的種種限制措施和發(fā)布的引戰(zhàn)言論都使他們深受其擾,移民們感到恐懼、不受歡迎。
拜登當(dāng)然不會(huì)將美國的大門敞開;他也不希望移民從美國工會(huì)中的工人那里奪走工作。但是他說,他將為沒有合法證件的移民提供相關(guān)路線規(guī)劃,告訴他們能夠在哪里、通過什么途徑取得公民身份,并消除在工作場所和社區(qū)中可能由此產(chǎn)生的沖突。
許多商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖與拜登統(tǒng)一戰(zhàn)線的主要原因是,他們?cè)僖矡o法承受特朗普領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的混亂狀態(tài)了。商業(yè)追求的是一種穩(wěn)定、可預(yù)測、明確的局面。而特朗普卻不停地在一些可以對(duì)商業(yè)產(chǎn)生重大影響的問題上嗤之以鼻、輕率決策——設(shè)置關(guān)稅壁壘,閉關(guān)鎖國,對(duì)公司報(bào)復(fù)性征稅,離開北約——都讓商人們筋疲力盡。
正如許多人私下里所說的那樣,只要知道規(guī)則,他們就可以展開競爭,但是如果規(guī)則在不斷變化,他們就無法競爭、維持正常的市場秩序。
也許拜登離美國企業(yè)心中理想的總統(tǒng)形象還很遙遠(yuǎn)。但在過去混亂的四年后,他會(huì)做的很好。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
編譯:陳怡軒、陳聰聰
2020年注定不尋常。面對(duì)一位大力推崇提稅、大幅授予工會(huì)權(quán)力、致力于加強(qiáng)企業(yè)監(jiān)管的新任總統(tǒng),美國商界的諸位首席執(zhí)行官竟然展現(xiàn)出了一種前所未有的歡迎態(tài)度。
作為即將上任的新總統(tǒng),拜登絕對(duì)算不上是美國大企業(yè)們的朋友。不過,他的政策能不能具體落實(shí)下來,在很大程度上還是取決于參議院的日后格局,一切都還不好說。但可以肯定的是,拜登已經(jīng)向大眾宣告了自己即將竭盡全力采取的若干項(xiàng)具體措施。自1970年起在政界摸爬滾打了50年整的拜登,堪稱思路清晰。
如果要用一句話來總結(jié)拜登的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策傾向,那么就是:中產(chǎn)及無產(chǎn)階級(jí)優(yōu)先,富人放于其次。拜登稱不上是一個(gè)共產(chǎn)主義者,在其政治生涯里的大部分時(shí)間里,他更傾向于中間派。
但去年夏天,這位中間派卻在賓夕法尼亞州鄧莫爾的一次重要演講中直言不諱地說:“建設(shè)美國的并不是華爾街的資本家,而是平凡人,可能是你的鄰居,也可能是為你提供食物的那些人?!币恢币詠?,鄧莫爾的老百姓都是拜登試圖拉攏的對(duì)象。
所以,從拜登主張的商業(yè)改革政策里,我們亦能夠窺見他的思想傾向。
提高公司稅
拜登明確表示,增收公司稅會(huì)是他就任后的“第一要?jiǎng)?wù)”。
特朗普2017年出臺(tái)的《減稅及就業(yè)法案》(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act)曾經(jīng)將最高公司稅由35%降至了21%,如若日后國會(huì)批準(zhǔn)拜登政策,那么該數(shù)值會(huì)被重新抬升至28%。他還強(qiáng)調(diào):“我們不鼓勵(lì)跨國公司在海外發(fā)展,企業(yè)的海外營收部分需要雙倍繳稅。”與此同時(shí),拜登還會(huì)為回流至美國的本土或海外企業(yè)以及環(huán)境友好型、綠色投資型企業(yè)提供稅收優(yōu)惠。
提高個(gè)稅
拜登將以多種方式提高個(gè)人所得稅。
首先,個(gè)人最高邊際所得稅將從37%提升至39.6%;其次,年收入超過40萬美元的個(gè)人需增繳社會(huì)保障稅,而年收入超過100萬美元的個(gè)人還需額外增繳資本利得稅;最后,年收入超過40萬美元的個(gè)人目前所享有的分項(xiàng)扣除額將會(huì)減少,而低收入人群在將來會(huì)享受更多的稅收抵免。
“我的指導(dǎo)原則在于:普通勞動(dòng)者和富人應(yīng)該受到同樣程度的嘉賞?!卑莸钦f道。
加強(qiáng)工會(huì)權(quán)力
“加強(qiáng)工會(huì)權(quán)力”也是特朗普政治政策的核心。
“工會(huì)造就了中產(chǎn)階級(jí)?!卑莸潜硎荆骸坝辛斯?huì),我們才有中產(chǎn)階級(jí)。要想解決美國商業(yè)體系中的權(quán)力濫用問題,必須通過另外一種第三方權(quán)力體系進(jìn)行約束,這個(gè)第三方權(quán)力就是‘工會(huì)’?!卑莸浅兄Z,他將通過多種途徑幫助工會(huì),同時(shí)賦予工人更多更新的法律保護(hù),以此促成權(quán)力間的平衡。
他還承諾自己會(huì)以一種更嚴(yán)格的態(tài)度對(duì)待雇主,進(jìn)一步加大對(duì)于美國公司雇員們的保護(hù)力度,無論其加入工會(huì)與否。如民主黨在競選綱領(lǐng)中所述,他們“會(huì)增加勞工部的資金和人員配備,積極執(zhí)行雇員工資、工時(shí)、健康及安全相關(guān)規(guī)定。”
實(shí)施新規(guī)定
除去工會(huì)相關(guān)變革,拜登還欲出臺(tái)更多新規(guī),其中包括:(1)將最低工資提高至15美元/小時(shí);(2)為聯(lián)邦貸款項(xiàng)目建立一個(gè)公共信用報(bào)告機(jī)構(gòu);(3)重振消費(fèi)者金融保護(hù)局;(4)取消雇傭及服務(wù)合同中的強(qiáng)制仲裁條款;(5)為雇員新增最高可達(dá)12周的帶薪家庭假或醫(yī)療假;(6)加強(qiáng)企業(yè)并購交易的審查工作等等。
深化奧巴馬醫(yī)改:推出“公共醫(yī)?!?/strong>
拜登將推行一項(xiàng)惠及全民的“公共醫(yī)?!闭摺K麑⒃试S醫(yī)療系統(tǒng)協(xié)商決定處方藥的定價(jià),并允許低成本藥物的進(jìn)口——而美國規(guī)模最大、占整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)18%的醫(yī)療保健行業(yè)通常會(huì)對(duì)這些措施感到深惡痛絕,因?yàn)檫@會(huì)破壞、甚至摧毀該行業(yè)一片相當(dāng)廣泛的勢力范圍。
在任期內(nèi)增加2.4萬億美元的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資
這是一項(xiàng)大部分行業(yè)一般都會(huì)支持的舉措,而且按理來說,落實(shí)起來也相對(duì)容易:國會(huì)的立法者們都希望能夠?qū)⒙?lián)邦資金回籠,因而在這一點(diǎn)上空前團(tuán)結(jié)。
但特朗普此前擔(dān)任總統(tǒng)時(shí),也想要按照自己的意愿出臺(tái)一項(xiàng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施法案,黨派之間的矛盾就非常激烈,以至于四年來,國會(huì)無法就其中的細(xì)節(jié)達(dá)成一致。拜登想要大幅改善這種局面,也將異常困難。
更宏觀的前景
一個(gè)更宏觀的問題是:拜登將如何影響整個(gè)美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)?這仍然很難說,各界也答案不一。沒有任何一位總統(tǒng)可以憑一己之力做出重大的財(cái)政政策變更——這主要還是取決于國會(huì)。
而貨幣政策更是幾乎完全不在總統(tǒng)掌控之中。Moody’s Analytics的一項(xiàng)研究結(jié)論是,拜登當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)會(huì)比特朗普連任提供更多的就業(yè)、增加人們的收入,而斯坦福大學(xué)胡佛研究所(Stanford University’s Hoover Institution)卻得出了相反的結(jié)論。普林斯頓大學(xué)(Princeton University)的研究則表示,幾乎沒有證據(jù)說明總統(tǒng)可以影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的走向。
為什么很多首席執(zhí)行官也在歡慶看似對(duì)他們不利的拜登的勝利?有一些原因是出于他們各自的特殊利益,需要具體問題具體分析,但也有些原因是普遍的。
具體而言,就是與特朗普相比,拜登不太可能將貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)升級(jí)——不僅是對(duì)中國,而且是對(duì)美國的盟友,特別是歐洲、加拿大和墨西哥。每有一家公司從這種關(guān)稅壁壘中受益,就會(huì)有其他數(shù)十家公司遭受進(jìn)口成本上升和出口關(guān)稅報(bào)復(fù)性增長的困擾。
此外,拜登對(duì)移民的威脅也可能不如特朗普。農(nóng)業(yè),建筑和技術(shù)等行業(yè)尤其依賴移民,然而特朗普上臺(tái)后實(shí)施的種種限制措施和發(fā)布的引戰(zhàn)言論都使他們深受其擾,移民們感到恐懼、不受歡迎。
拜登當(dāng)然不會(huì)將美國的大門敞開;他也不希望移民從美國工會(huì)中的工人那里奪走工作。但是他說,他將為沒有合法證件的移民提供相關(guān)路線規(guī)劃,告訴他們能夠在哪里、通過什么途徑取得公民身份,并消除在工作場所和社區(qū)中可能由此產(chǎn)生的沖突。
許多商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖與拜登統(tǒng)一戰(zhàn)線的主要原因是,他們?cè)僖矡o法承受特朗普領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的混亂狀態(tài)了。商業(yè)追求的是一種穩(wěn)定、可預(yù)測、明確的局面。而特朗普卻不停地在一些可以對(duì)商業(yè)產(chǎn)生重大影響的問題上嗤之以鼻、輕率決策——設(shè)置關(guān)稅壁壘,閉關(guān)鎖國,對(duì)公司報(bào)復(fù)性征稅,離開北約——都讓商人們筋疲力盡。
正如許多人私下里所說的那樣,只要知道規(guī)則,他們就可以展開競爭,但是如果規(guī)則在不斷變化,他們就無法競爭、維持正常的市場秩序。
也許拜登離美國企業(yè)心中理想的總統(tǒng)形象還很遙遠(yuǎn)。但在過去混亂的四年后,他會(huì)做的很好。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
編譯:陳怡軒、陳聰聰
Only in 2020 would CEOs welcome a new President who promises to raise their taxes, intensify business regulation, and massively empower labor unions. But then this is no ordinary year.
Joe Biden as President will not be much of a friend to Big Business. Exactly what he will do or can do depends heavily on the makeup of the Senate, which is still undetermined. But he has declared several specific actions he will take as President if he can, and after 50 years in public life, his instincts are clear.
The one-sentence description of Biden’s economic inclinations is this: He thinks the middle class and working class should get more, and the wealthy should get less. He’s no socialist; for most of his political career he’s been near the center. But in a major speech last summer in Dunmore, Pa., a former coal-mining borough near his old hometown of Scranton, he was blunt: “Wall Street bankers and CEOs didn’t build this country. You can just look around your neighborhood or your kitchen table and see who built this country.” The people of Dunmore are the kind of voters whose support he has always sought.
Biden’s leanings are apparent in the most important business-related policy changes he has said he wants to make:
Raise taxes on companies
He has been unequivocal on this, saying that raising taxes will be a “day one” priority, effectively undoing Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017—if Congress agrees. The TCJA cut the top corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%; Biden would raise it to 28%. He has also said, “We’re going to double the tax on foreign profits so we don’t encourage people to leave and build abroad.” At the same time, he would offer tax incentives to companies that bring overseas operations to the U.S. and make certain green investments, among other things.
Raise taxes on individuals making over $400,000 a year
Biden would increase personal taxes in multiple ways, starting by raising the top marginal income tax rate from 37% to 39.6%. He’d also increase Social Security taxes on income over $400,000, tax capital gains as ordinary income on income over $1 million, and reduce the value of itemized deductions for taxpayers with incomes over $400,000. He’d increase or create tax credits for those with low incomes. “The guiding principle,” he has said, should be, “we must reward work as much as we’ve rewarded wealth.”
Strengthen labor unions
Of all Biden’s policy prescriptions, this is the closest to his heart. “Unions built the middle class,” he has said. “That’s why we have a middle class. In corporate America, the only way to deal with abuse of power is with power, and labor unions are the only ones that have the capacity to do it.” He has promised to tilt the balance of power by facilitating union organizing in myriad ways and by giving workers new legal protections. He says he will also protect employees—unionized or not—by getting much tougher with employers. “We will increase funding and staffing at the Department of Labor to aggressively enforce wage, hour, health, and safety rules across the economy,” the Democratic platform promises.
Impose new regulations
In addition to union-related regulations, Biden has been clear that he would raise the federal minimum wage to $15; create a public credit reporting agency and require federal lending programs to use it; "reinvigorate" the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which was established in the Dodd-Frank Act; eliminate forced-arbitration clauses in employment and service contracts; and mandate paid family and medical leave for up to 12 weeks. He has also promised to scrutinize mergers and acquisitions much more closely.
Add a public option to Obamacare
Biden’s public option would be available to all. He would allow Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices and would permit importation of lower-cost drugs. The U.S. health care industry—America's largest industry, accounting for 18% of the entire economy—generally hates those proposals, fearing they’d decimate or demolish wide swaths of the sector.
Increase infrastructure spending by $2.4 trillion during his term
That’s a change business in general would love, and delivering it ought to be easy: Legislators are united in wanting to bring federal dollars back home. But President Trump also wanted an infrastructure bill, and partisan warfare was so fierce that in four years Congress couldn't agree on the details. Biden will have a tough time doing better.
The big picture
A larger question—how Biden will affect the U.S. economy overall—remains hard to answer. No President alone can significantly change fiscal policy; that’s mostly up to Congress. Monetary policy is almost entirely out of the President’s hands. A study from Moody’s Analytics concluded that a President Biden would produce far more jobs and income than a continuation of Trump, while research from Stanford University’s Hoover Institution found the opposite. Research from Princeton University says there’s little evidence that Presidents influence the economy’s performance one way or the other.
Why do so many CEOs welcome the seemingly hostile Biden’s victory? For a couple of specific reasons and one big general reason. Specifically, Biden is less likely than Trump to escalate trade wars, not just with China but also with U.S. allies, notably Europe, Canada, and Mexico. For every company that benefits from tariffs, dozens of others suffer from the higher cost of imports and from retaliatory tariffs on their own exports.
In addition, Biden will likely be less menacing to immigrants than Trump has been. The agriculture, construction, and technology industries in particular rely on immigrants and have suffered from Trump’s restrictions and his bellicose rhetoric that makes immigrants feel fearful and unwelcome. Biden won’t throw open the gates; he doesn’t want immigrants taking jobs away from unionized workers. But he says he’ll provide a road map to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and end workplace and community raids.
The big, general reason many business leaders are fine with a President Biden is that they can't take the tumult any longer. Business prizes stability, predictability, certainty. Trump’s incessant whipsawing on some of the largest issues—imposing tariffs, closing borders, retaliating against companies, leaving NATO—has exhausted businesspeople. As many of them say privately, they can compete so long as they know the rules, but can’t if the rules are constantly changing.
Biden is far from U.S. business’s ideal President. But after the past four chaotic years, he’ll do just fine.