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梅琳達(dá)?蓋茨:2021年,女性可能拯救經(jīng)濟(jì)

 Emma Hinchliffe
2021-01-04

2020年,女性就業(yè)遭受了前所未有的打擊,不僅失業(yè)比例畸高,照顧家庭的責(zé)任也越發(fā)繁重。

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圖片來源:Katherine Frey—The Washington Post/Getty Images

2020年,女性就業(yè)遭受了前所未有的打擊,不僅失業(yè)比例畸高,照顧家庭的責(zé)任也越發(fā)繁重。兩種情況相結(jié)合,過去幾年乃至數(shù)十年來女性在勞動(dòng)力市場上取得的進(jìn)步基本喪失。

但隨著新一年到來,新總統(tǒng)上任,以及新冠疫苗面世,2021年女性就業(yè)有沒有機(jī)會(huì)恢復(fù)?

從梅琳達(dá)?蓋茨到女權(quán)組織Time’s Up首席執(zhí)行官陳遠(yuǎn)美等六位專家均參與了討論。各位專家都強(qiáng)調(diào)解決關(guān)鍵的差距非常重要,比如無障礙托兒服務(wù)和帶薪探親假等。但具體到各方面,從游說國會(huì)、跟企業(yè)合作以更好地服務(wù)女性,再到分析經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)等,每個(gè)人對新一年觀點(diǎn)不盡相同。

以下內(nèi)容為她們各自對2021年的預(yù)測、希望和目標(biāo):

金伯利?徹奇斯,美國大學(xué)女性協(xié)會(huì)首席執(zhí)行官

圖片來源:Courtesy of AAUW

今年我們真正認(rèn)識(shí)到,不僅要維持工作與生活平衡,工作與生活融合也很關(guān)鍵。2021年我們將發(fā)現(xiàn)最明顯的趨勢將是提升辦公場所的靈活性。要想度過危機(jī)并看到真正的復(fù)蘇,就一定要幫助女性度過難關(guān)。

隨著第117屆國會(huì)成立,將有更多關(guān)于透明度的法案出臺(tái):關(guān)于薪酬公平,關(guān)于辦公室增加靈活性的實(shí)踐,以及托兒服務(wù),例如《工資公平法》和《家庭法》等。

不過,種種法案均在疫情之前就已制定。所以我認(rèn)為很多組織、官員和政策制定者將努力確保在后疫情時(shí)代的世界里繼續(xù)適用。我認(rèn)為,相關(guān)法案會(huì)經(jīng)過一些修改和調(diào)整,從而更符合辦公室的發(fā)展方向,因?yàn)楦黜?xiàng)法案均支持多樣性、公平性和包容性,畢竟今年相關(guān)經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)都很豐富。

梅琳達(dá)?蓋茨,比爾和梅琳達(dá)?蓋茨基金會(huì)聯(lián)合主席,Pivotal Ventures創(chuàng)始人,《女性的時(shí)刻》作者

圖片來源:Michael Short—Bloomberg/Getty Images

2020年經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中女性受創(chuàng)最為嚴(yán)重。2021年經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇中女性同樣可能受到最大打擊。

一個(gè)很大的原因是女性需要照顧很多人。即便在疫情之前,女性為照顧家庭而辭職的可能性也幾乎是男性的三倍。現(xiàn)在,離開勞動(dòng)力市場的女性數(shù)量創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄。最近一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),多達(dá)四分之一的女性正考慮降低工作節(jié)奏或辭職,原因就是疫情期間需要花更多時(shí)間照顧家庭。

一想到企業(yè)重新開門時(shí),很多之前屬于女性的辦公桌將變得空空蕩蕩,我就寢食難安。如果立法者不能切實(shí)關(guān)注照顧家庭引發(fā)的危機(jī),我恐懼的場面就會(huì)變成現(xiàn)實(shí)。首先,我們需要全國性的帶薪探親和病假政策。美國是工業(yè)國家當(dāng)中唯一沒有相關(guān)政策的國家。還需要聯(lián)邦政府采取行動(dòng)穩(wěn)定動(dòng)蕩的托兒行業(yè),將更多資源用于長期照顧服務(wù)和支持,讓生病和年老的成年人除了依靠母親或女兒之外,還有其他選擇。

如果繼續(xù)忽視相關(guān)需求,衰退將進(jìn)一步加深,拖累所有人恢復(fù)的進(jìn)程。如果認(rèn)識(shí)到照顧是基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施并相應(yīng)地投資,女性就可能拯救經(jīng)濟(jì)。

C?尼科爾?梅森,女性政策研究所所長兼首席執(zhí)行官

圖片來源:Courtesy of Institute of Women's Policy Research

明年一季度的短期內(nèi),預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)有更多女性離職,特別是如果學(xué)校仍然關(guān)閉而日托機(jī)構(gòu)也不開放的話。估計(jì)不少女性只能被迫選擇。明年二季度由于照顧需求可預(yù)期,情況穩(wěn)定后女性將能重返職場。未來還有很長的路要走。

我認(rèn)為恢復(fù)不會(huì)很快。就是感覺不會(huì)快,可能會(huì)很慢。而且,在居家隔離令100%取消之前,當(dāng)前趨勢還可能加速。消失的一些工作崗位不會(huì)很快出現(xiàn)。我認(rèn)為,從疫情前女性就業(yè)水平考慮,要完全恢復(fù)還需要幾年時(shí)間。但我相信會(huì)出臺(tái)類似2008年的強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇計(jì)劃。希望能提振經(jīng)濟(jì),也能幫助受影響最嚴(yán)重的女性員工。

陳遠(yuǎn)美,Time’s Up總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官

圖片來源:Courtesy of Tina Tchen

12年前我還在白宮時(shí),曾經(jīng)參與推出復(fù)蘇法案希望刺激經(jīng)濟(jì),對我們來說這是一項(xiàng)非常重要的工作。當(dāng)時(shí),推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的工作由副總統(tǒng)拜登主導(dǎo)。我預(yù)計(jì),剛當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)的拜登還會(huì)這么做,他組建的經(jīng)濟(jì)工作團(tuán)隊(duì)也深知這一點(diǎn)。

如今我希望的是,甚至比12年前還要希望個(gè)體企業(yè)自行制定政策并投資勞動(dòng)力加以應(yīng)對,這樣勞動(dòng)力投資方式才能真正發(fā)生變化,比如建立協(xié)助看護(hù)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。

蕾切爾?托馬斯, LeanIn.org聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人兼CEO

圖片來源:Patrick T. Fallon—Bloomberg/Getty Images

專家們談?wù)摗肮ぷ鞯奈磥怼睍r(shí),經(jīng)常指的是人工智能或自動(dòng)化或機(jī)器人技術(shù)。疫情則將人類推向不同的方向,即女性工作的未來。很明顯,遠(yuǎn)程辦公將繼續(xù)存在;90%的公司都認(rèn)為疫情之后,更多的工作將遠(yuǎn)程完成。

從積極的方面來看,女性很可能充分利用遠(yuǎn)程辦公的機(jī)會(huì),尤其是身為母親和照顧者的女性。但至關(guān)重要的是,我們要?jiǎng)?chuàng)造包容遠(yuǎn)程辦公的文化,不能抱有偏見。

如果不考慮長期轉(zhuǎn)向遠(yuǎn)程辦公,最終可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)兩類員工:一類是不用承擔(dān)太多照顧責(zé)任的人,將有很多機(jī)會(huì)跟管理者見面;另一類則是要承擔(dān)照顧責(zé)任的人,主要是女性,此類人可能因?yàn)檫h(yuǎn)程辦公而機(jī)會(huì)變少,不僅跟高層領(lǐng)導(dǎo)見面的時(shí)間減少,晉升機(jī)會(huì)也更少。

杰思敏?塔克,國家女性法律中心研究主任

圖片來源:Courtesy of National Women’s Law Center

如果本次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退跟過去一樣,2021年女性將面臨失業(yè)。大蕭條后,黑人女性失業(yè)率曾連續(xù)60個(gè)月達(dá)到兩位數(shù),期間白人男性失業(yè)率從未達(dá)到兩位數(shù)。

我們發(fā)現(xiàn)220萬女性已完全離開工作崗位。一個(gè)月就能抹去十年女性就業(yè)取得的進(jìn)展,現(xiàn)在勞動(dòng)力參與率又回到30多年前的情況。

如今每個(gè)空缺崗位都有兩個(gè)人應(yīng)聘,雇主就會(huì)對新招的人很挑剔。我不想承認(rèn),但現(xiàn)實(shí)一遍又一遍上演。雇主經(jīng)常有種族主義傾向、性別歧視還有年齡歧視。他們不會(huì)雇傭有色人種女性,即便雇傭也只提供報(bào)酬較低的工作。年長女性可能根本沒法重返勞動(dòng)力市場。

對黑人和拉美裔女性來說,工資差距剝奪了她們儲(chǔ)蓄的能力。重返勞動(dòng)力市場時(shí),很可能一發(fā)現(xiàn)工作機(jī)會(huì)后就立刻接受,待遇往往比之前從事的工作更低。而擁有更多儲(chǔ)蓄和資源的白人也許能再等一段時(shí)間。

女性就業(yè)受到的沖擊漫長而艱難。如果現(xiàn)在不采取行動(dòng),女性就沒法挽回彌補(bǔ)損失。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

2020年,女性就業(yè)遭受了前所未有的打擊,不僅失業(yè)比例畸高,照顧家庭的責(zé)任也越發(fā)繁重。兩種情況相結(jié)合,過去幾年乃至數(shù)十年來女性在勞動(dòng)力市場上取得的進(jìn)步基本喪失。

但隨著新一年到來,新總統(tǒng)上任,以及新冠疫苗面世,2021年女性就業(yè)有沒有機(jī)會(huì)恢復(fù)?

從梅琳達(dá)?蓋茨到女權(quán)組織Time’s Up首席執(zhí)行官陳遠(yuǎn)美等六位專家均參與了討論。各位專家都強(qiáng)調(diào)解決關(guān)鍵的差距非常重要,比如無障礙托兒服務(wù)和帶薪探親假等。但具體到各方面,從游說國會(huì)、跟企業(yè)合作以更好地服務(wù)女性,再到分析經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)等,每個(gè)人對新一年觀點(diǎn)不盡相同。

以下內(nèi)容為她們各自對2021年的預(yù)測、希望和目標(biāo):

金伯利?徹奇斯,美國大學(xué)女性協(xié)會(huì)首席執(zhí)行官

今年我們真正認(rèn)識(shí)到,不僅要維持工作與生活平衡,工作與生活融合也很關(guān)鍵。2021年我們將發(fā)現(xiàn)最明顯的趨勢將是提升辦公場所的靈活性。要想度過危機(jī)并看到真正的復(fù)蘇,就一定要幫助女性度過難關(guān)。

隨著第117屆國會(huì)成立,將有更多關(guān)于透明度的法案出臺(tái):關(guān)于薪酬公平,關(guān)于辦公室增加靈活性的實(shí)踐,以及托兒服務(wù),例如《工資公平法》和《家庭法》等。

不過,種種法案均在疫情之前就已制定。所以我認(rèn)為很多組織、官員和政策制定者將努力確保在后疫情時(shí)代的世界里繼續(xù)適用。我認(rèn)為,相關(guān)法案會(huì)經(jīng)過一些修改和調(diào)整,從而更符合辦公室的發(fā)展方向,因?yàn)楦黜?xiàng)法案均支持多樣性、公平性和包容性,畢竟今年相關(guān)經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)都很豐富。

梅琳達(dá)?蓋茨,比爾和梅琳達(dá)?蓋茨基金會(huì)聯(lián)合主席,Pivotal Ventures創(chuàng)始人,《女性的時(shí)刻》作者

2020年經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中女性受創(chuàng)最為嚴(yán)重。2021年經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇中女性同樣可能受到最大打擊。

一個(gè)很大的原因是女性需要照顧很多人。即便在疫情之前,女性為照顧家庭而辭職的可能性也幾乎是男性的三倍?,F(xiàn)在,離開勞動(dòng)力市場的女性數(shù)量創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄。最近一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),多達(dá)四分之一的女性正考慮降低工作節(jié)奏或辭職,原因就是疫情期間需要花更多時(shí)間照顧家庭。

一想到企業(yè)重新開門時(shí),很多之前屬于女性的辦公桌將變得空空蕩蕩,我就寢食難安。如果立法者不能切實(shí)關(guān)注照顧家庭引發(fā)的危機(jī),我恐懼的場面就會(huì)變成現(xiàn)實(shí)。首先,我們需要全國性的帶薪探親和病假政策。美國是工業(yè)國家當(dāng)中唯一沒有相關(guān)政策的國家。還需要聯(lián)邦政府采取行動(dòng)穩(wěn)定動(dòng)蕩的托兒行業(yè),將更多資源用于長期照顧服務(wù)和支持,讓生病和年老的成年人除了依靠母親或女兒之外,還有其他選擇。

如果繼續(xù)忽視相關(guān)需求,衰退將進(jìn)一步加深,拖累所有人恢復(fù)的進(jìn)程。如果認(rèn)識(shí)到照顧是基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施并相應(yīng)地投資,女性就可能拯救經(jīng)濟(jì)。

C?尼科爾?梅森,女性政策研究所所長兼首席執(zhí)行官

明年一季度的短期內(nèi),預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)有更多女性離職,特別是如果學(xué)校仍然關(guān)閉而日托機(jī)構(gòu)也不開放的話。估計(jì)不少女性只能被迫選擇。明年二季度由于照顧需求可預(yù)期,情況穩(wěn)定后女性將能重返職場。未來還有很長的路要走。

我認(rèn)為恢復(fù)不會(huì)很快。就是感覺不會(huì)快,可能會(huì)很慢。而且,在居家隔離令100%取消之前,當(dāng)前趨勢還可能加速。消失的一些工作崗位不會(huì)很快出現(xiàn)。我認(rèn)為,從疫情前女性就業(yè)水平考慮,要完全恢復(fù)還需要幾年時(shí)間。但我相信會(huì)出臺(tái)類似2008年的強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇計(jì)劃。希望能提振經(jīng)濟(jì),也能幫助受影響最嚴(yán)重的女性員工。

陳遠(yuǎn)美,Time’s Up總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官

12年前我還在白宮時(shí),曾經(jīng)參與推出復(fù)蘇法案希望刺激經(jīng)濟(jì),對我們來說這是一項(xiàng)非常重要的工作。當(dāng)時(shí),推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的工作由副總統(tǒng)拜登主導(dǎo)。我預(yù)計(jì),剛當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)的拜登還會(huì)這么做,他組建的經(jīng)濟(jì)工作團(tuán)隊(duì)也深知這一點(diǎn)。

如今我希望的是,甚至比12年前還要希望個(gè)體企業(yè)自行制定政策并投資勞動(dòng)力加以應(yīng)對,這樣勞動(dòng)力投資方式才能真正發(fā)生變化,比如建立協(xié)助看護(hù)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。

蕾切爾?托馬斯, LeanIn.org聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人兼CEO

專家們談?wù)摗肮ぷ鞯奈磥怼睍r(shí),經(jīng)常指的是人工智能或自動(dòng)化或機(jī)器人技術(shù)。疫情則將人類推向不同的方向,即女性工作的未來。很明顯,遠(yuǎn)程辦公將繼續(xù)存在;90%的公司都認(rèn)為疫情之后,更多的工作將遠(yuǎn)程完成。

從積極的方面來看,女性很可能充分利用遠(yuǎn)程辦公的機(jī)會(huì),尤其是身為母親和照顧者的女性。但至關(guān)重要的是,我們要?jiǎng)?chuàng)造包容遠(yuǎn)程辦公的文化,不能抱有偏見。

如果不考慮長期轉(zhuǎn)向遠(yuǎn)程辦公,最終可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)兩類員工:一類是不用承擔(dān)太多照顧責(zé)任的人,將有很多機(jī)會(huì)跟管理者見面;另一類則是要承擔(dān)照顧責(zé)任的人,主要是女性,此類人可能因?yàn)檫h(yuǎn)程辦公而機(jī)會(huì)變少,不僅跟高層領(lǐng)導(dǎo)見面的時(shí)間減少,晉升機(jī)會(huì)也更少。

杰思敏?塔克,國家女性法律中心研究主任

如果本次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退跟過去一樣,2021年女性將面臨失業(yè)。大蕭條后,黑人女性失業(yè)率曾連續(xù)60個(gè)月達(dá)到兩位數(shù),期間白人男性失業(yè)率從未達(dá)到兩位數(shù)。

我們發(fā)現(xiàn)220萬女性已完全離開工作崗位。一個(gè)月就能抹去十年女性就業(yè)取得的進(jìn)展,現(xiàn)在勞動(dòng)力參與率又回到30多年前的情況。

如今每個(gè)空缺崗位都有兩個(gè)人應(yīng)聘,雇主就會(huì)對新招的人很挑剔。我不想承認(rèn),但現(xiàn)實(shí)一遍又一遍上演。雇主經(jīng)常有種族主義傾向、性別歧視還有年齡歧視。他們不會(huì)雇傭有色人種女性,即便雇傭也只提供報(bào)酬較低的工作。年長女性可能根本沒法重返勞動(dòng)力市場。

對黑人和拉美裔女性來說,工資差距剝奪了她們儲(chǔ)蓄的能力。重返勞動(dòng)力市場時(shí),很可能一發(fā)現(xiàn)工作機(jī)會(huì)后就立刻接受,待遇往往比之前從事的工作更低。而擁有更多儲(chǔ)蓄和資源的白人也許能再等一段時(shí)間。

女性就業(yè)受到的沖擊漫長而艱難。如果現(xiàn)在不采取行動(dòng),女性就沒法挽回彌補(bǔ)損失。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

In 2020, working women suffered unprecedented losses, facing both disproportionate job loss and a mushrooming of caregiving responsibilities—a combination that could ultimately roll back much of the progress women have made in the workforce over the past years and decades.

But, with a new year, a new presidential administration, and a coronavirus vaccine on the horizon, do women stand a chance of recovering in 2021?

Six experts—from Melinda Gates to Time’s Up CEO Tina Tchen—weighed in on the question. All emphasized the critical importance of addressing key gaps like accessible childcare and paid family leave. But from unique perches—lobbying Congress on these issues, working with businesses to better serve female workers, and analyzing economic data—each has a different outlook for the new year.

Read their predictions, hopes, and goals for 2021 below:

Kimberly Churches, CEO, American Association of University Women

We really learned this year that it’s not work-life balance—it’s work-life blend. Increased flexibility in the workplace is going to be a real top trend we're going to see in 2021. Getting through this crisis and looking at true recovery means we have to center helping women getting through this too.

As we enter the 117th Congress, we’re going to see even more bills coming forward around transparency: on pay equity, on practices in the workplace on flexibility, and on access to care—like the Paycheck Fairness Act and the FAMILY Act.

These bills, though, were written prior to the pandemic. So I think you’ll see a lot of organizations, elected officials, and policymakers working to make sure that they get it right for a post-COVID-19 world. I think we’re going to see those those bills come forward with with a few edits and tweaks that can better meet where workplaces should be going as they fully embrace diversity, equity, and inclusion—especially given what we’ve learned this year.

Melinda Gates, cochair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, founder of Pivotal Ventures, and author of The Moment of Lift

Women have suffered the worst of the 2020 recession. They could suffer the worst of the 2021 recovery, too.

A big reason is caregiving. Even before COVID-19, women were nearly three times as likely as men to quit their jobs to take care of a family member. Now, they’re leaving the workforce in record numbers. A recent survey found that a staggering one in four women is considering downshifting her career or quitting her job because of increased caregiving responsibilities during the pandemic.

It keeps me up at night to think that when businesses reopen, there could be a lot of empty desks where women used to sit. That’s the path we’re headed on unless lawmakers finally give the caregiving crisis the attention it deserves. To start, we need a national paid family and medical leave policy—now. We’re the only industrialized nation without one. We also need federal action to stabilize the teetering childcare industry and to direct additional resources to long-term-care services and supports so that ill and aging adults have options besides relying on a mother or a daughter.

If we ignore these needs, it’ll deepen the recession and slow recovery for everyone. If we recognize that caregiving is infrastructure and invest in it accordingly, women may just save our economy.

C. Nicole Mason, president and CEO, Institute for Women’s Policy Research

In the short term of the first quarter of the year, I expect to see more women exiting the workforce, especially if schools remain closed and day cares remain closed. I expect to see some women having to make that choice. In the second quarter of the year, we’ll see women being able to return to the workforce because of the stability that predictable care provides. I think we have a long road ahead of us.

I don’t think recovery is going to be swift. I just don’t. I think that it’ll be slow. And it might seem accelerated at the beginning when stay-at-home orders are 100% lifted. But some of the jobs that we’ve lost will not be coming back. I think we’re still a couple years out for full recovery, in terms of pre-pandemic levels of employment for women. But I believe there’s going to be a robust recovery plan similar to the one in 2008. Hopefully, that’ll give the economy a boost, but also help women workers who were most impacted.

Tina Tchen, president and CEO, Time’s Up

When I was in the White House 12 years ago, we came out of the gate with a Recovery Act to try to stimulate the economy—that was very much job one for us. Vice President Biden, at the time, led that recovery effort. And I expect that now–President-elect Biden will do the same—and that the economic team he has put in place understands this.

I’m hopeful that, even more than we saw 12 years ago, individual companies will respond with their own policies and their own investment in the workforce—so that we can actually see change take place in how we invest in our workforce, like building a caregiving infrastructure.

Rachel Thomas, cofounder and CEO, LeanIn.org

When experts talk about the “future of work,” we’re often talking about artificial intelligence or automation or robotics. COVID-19 has pushed us in a different direction: the future of work for women. It’s really clear that remote work is here to stay; 90% of companies think more work will be done remotely after COVID-19.

On the positive side, women, particularly mothers and caregivers, are highly likely to take advantage of this option. But it’s going to be critically important that we create a culture that embraces and doesn’t stigmatize remote work.

If we’re not thoughtful about the long-term shift to remote work, it may end up creating two classes of employees: those that don’t have a lot of caregiving responsibilities and will get lots of face time with managers, and those who do have caregiving responsibilities—predominantly women—who may end up paying for working remotely with fewer opportunities, less face time with senior leaders, and fewer chances to advance.

Jasmine Tucker, director of research, National Women’s Law Center

If this recession is anything like past ones, women are going to be experiencing unemployment in 2021; Black women after the Great Recession experienced double-digit unemployment rates for about 60 consecutive months; meanwhile, white men never reached double digits.

We’ve seen 2.2 million women completely drop out of the workforce. We wiped out a decade of gains in terms of employment for women in one month; we are now 30-plus years back in our labor force participation rate.

Now there are two people looking for work for every job opening—so employers are going to be choosy about who they’re hiring. I hate to think that this is true, but we’ve seen it over and over: Employers are racist and sexist and ageist. They’re not going to hire the women of color, or they’re going to hire them for the lower-paying job. Older women might not come back to the labor force at all.

For Black women and Latinas, the wage gap has robbed them of their ability to have savings; when they reenter the workforce, they’re going to be more likely to just take the first thing that comes along—often at a lower level than where they were before. Whereas a white man who has more savings and more resources might be able to wait a little longer.

The impact is going to be long and hard. Without any action now, there’s just no way that women are going to claw back and recoup the losses.

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