喬·拜登過(guò)渡團(tuán)隊(duì)的發(fā)言人在周三表示,拜登已經(jīng)任命奧巴馬政府的資深專(zhuān)家?guī)鞝柼亍た藏悹?,?dān)任新設(shè)的亞洲政策高級(jí)官員一職。
坎貝爾是前五角大樓官員,后來(lái)晉升為希拉里·克林頓時(shí)期在國(guó)務(wù)院負(fù)責(zé)亞洲事務(wù)的美國(guó)最高外交官。他是華盛頓政策機(jī)構(gòu)的支柱人物——一位精明的外交官、經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的幕僚和備受尊敬的外交政策理論家——在亞洲和國(guó)會(huì)山擁有非常龐大的關(guān)系網(wǎng)絡(luò)。
在拜登政府中,坎貝爾將擔(dān)任“印太事務(wù)協(xié)調(diào)員”(Indo-Pacific coordinator)。(拜登顯然拒絕了之前有人把新職位稱(chēng)為“亞洲沙皇”的提議。)坎貝爾將直接向國(guó)家安全委員會(huì)顧問(wèn)杰克·沙利文匯報(bào)工作,并獲得廣泛授權(quán)以整合“各個(gè)政府機(jī)構(gòu)”的對(duì)華政策。
《華盛頓郵報(bào)》專(zhuān)欄作家喬?!ち_金稱(chēng)贊任命坎貝爾的決定“應(yīng)該會(huì)讓緊張的亞洲盟友放心,表明拜登政府正在認(rèn)真對(duì)待中國(guó)帶來(lái)的挑戰(zhàn)。”
坎貝爾是一位對(duì)華鷹派人士,被廣泛認(rèn)為是奧巴馬政府2012年“重返亞洲”戰(zhàn)略的制定者。該戰(zhàn)略呼吁,加強(qiáng)美國(guó)在亞洲其他地區(qū)的軍事資源和外交關(guān)系,與中國(guó)打交道時(shí)采取更具對(duì)抗性的方式。
坎貝爾在2016年出版的《重返亞太:美國(guó)亞洲理政的未來(lái)》(The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia),以及后來(lái)發(fā)表在《外交事務(wù)》(Foreign Affairs)的一系列文章中詳細(xì)闡述了這一戰(zhàn)略。在2018年與伊利·拉特納合著的一篇文章中,坎貝爾基本贊同特朗普政府的看法,認(rèn)為美國(guó)長(zhǎng)達(dá)40年的對(duì)華接觸政策已宣告失敗。拉特納有望在拜登政府擔(dān)任亞洲相關(guān)事務(wù)的高級(jí)職位。
“美國(guó)再一次高估了自己影響中國(guó)發(fā)展軌跡的能力,”他們?cè)谖恼轮袑?xiě)道。“各個(gè)辯論方都犯了錯(cuò)誤:自由貿(mào)易者和金融家預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)將不可避免地逐漸開(kāi)放,整合主義者認(rèn)為中國(guó)的雄心將在與國(guó)際社會(huì)加強(qiáng)互動(dòng)的過(guò)程中被削弱,鷹派人士相信美國(guó)的永久霸主地位會(huì)減弱中國(guó)的實(shí)力。但無(wú)論胡蘿卜,還是大棒,都沒(méi)能像預(yù)測(cè)的那樣改變中國(guó)?!?/p>
對(duì)奧巴馬“重返亞太”戰(zhàn)略持批評(píng)意見(jiàn)的評(píng)論家認(rèn)為,這實(shí)際上加劇了亞太地區(qū)的緊張局勢(shì),因?yàn)樗l(fā)出了美國(guó)決心遏制中國(guó)的信號(hào)。該戰(zhàn)略后來(lái)更名為“亞太再平衡”戰(zhàn)略。
在一篇發(fā)表于2019年的題為《沒(méi)有災(zāi)難的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)》(Competition Without Catastrophe)的文章中,坎貝爾和沙利文強(qiáng)調(diào),遏制并不是重返戰(zhàn)略的目標(biāo)。他們認(rèn)為,冷戰(zhàn)式“遏制”策略在與中國(guó)交手時(shí)無(wú)法奏效,因?yàn)橹袊?guó)是一個(gè)比前蘇聯(lián)強(qiáng)大得多的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。美國(guó)政策的目標(biāo)應(yīng)該是弄清楚如何與中國(guó)共存,而不是如何改變它。他們認(rèn)為,美國(guó)政策制定者如果覺(jué)得“在接觸戰(zhàn)略失敗時(shí),戰(zhàn)略競(jìng)爭(zhēng)路線可以成功讓中國(guó)發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變——迫使對(duì)方屈服甚至崩潰”,那么他們就有可能重蹈覆轍。
在本周發(fā)表于《外交事務(wù)》的一篇新文章中,坎貝爾和布魯金斯學(xué)會(huì)(Brookings Institution)中國(guó)戰(zhàn)略研究部主任拉什·多希概述了美國(guó)應(yīng)如何在該地區(qū)靠大力發(fā)展聯(lián)盟來(lái)“鞏固”亞洲安全,他們承認(rèn)這項(xiàng)任務(wù)是“美國(guó)現(xiàn)代治國(guó)史上最具挑戰(zhàn)性的”。
這也是諸多亟待解決的議題之一,而坎貝爾現(xiàn)在有機(jī)會(huì)去驗(yàn)證他的理論了。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Emily
喬·拜登過(guò)渡團(tuán)隊(duì)的發(fā)言人在周三表示,拜登已經(jīng)任命奧巴馬政府的資深專(zhuān)家?guī)鞝柼亍た藏悹?,?dān)任新設(shè)的亞洲政策高級(jí)官員一職。
坎貝爾是前五角大樓官員,后來(lái)晉升為希拉里·克林頓時(shí)期在國(guó)務(wù)院負(fù)責(zé)亞洲事務(wù)的美國(guó)最高外交官。他是華盛頓政策機(jī)構(gòu)的支柱人物——一位精明的外交官、經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的幕僚和備受尊敬的外交政策理論家——在亞洲和國(guó)會(huì)山擁有非常龐大的關(guān)系網(wǎng)絡(luò)。
在拜登政府中,坎貝爾將擔(dān)任“印太事務(wù)協(xié)調(diào)員”(Indo-Pacific coordinator)。(拜登顯然拒絕了之前有人把新職位稱(chēng)為“亞洲沙皇”的提議。)坎貝爾將直接向國(guó)家安全委員會(huì)顧問(wèn)杰克·沙利文匯報(bào)工作,并獲得廣泛授權(quán)以整合“各個(gè)政府機(jī)構(gòu)”的對(duì)華政策。
《華盛頓郵報(bào)》專(zhuān)欄作家喬希·羅金稱(chēng)贊任命坎貝爾的決定“應(yīng)該會(huì)讓緊張的亞洲盟友放心,表明拜登政府正在認(rèn)真對(duì)待中國(guó)帶來(lái)的挑戰(zhàn)。”
坎貝爾是一位對(duì)華鷹派人士,被廣泛認(rèn)為是奧巴馬政府2012年“重返亞洲”戰(zhàn)略的制定者。該戰(zhàn)略呼吁,加強(qiáng)美國(guó)在亞洲其他地區(qū)的軍事資源和外交關(guān)系,與中國(guó)打交道時(shí)采取更具對(duì)抗性的方式。
坎貝爾在2016年出版的《重返亞太:美國(guó)亞洲理政的未來(lái)》(The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia),以及后來(lái)發(fā)表在《外交事務(wù)》(Foreign Affairs)的一系列文章中詳細(xì)闡述了這一戰(zhàn)略。在2018年與伊利·拉特納合著的一篇文章中,坎貝爾基本贊同特朗普政府的看法,認(rèn)為美國(guó)長(zhǎng)達(dá)40年的對(duì)華接觸政策已宣告失敗。拉特納有望在拜登政府擔(dān)任亞洲相關(guān)事務(wù)的高級(jí)職位。
“美國(guó)再一次高估了自己影響中國(guó)發(fā)展軌跡的能力,”他們?cè)谖恼轮袑?xiě)道?!案鱾€(gè)辯論方都犯了錯(cuò)誤:自由貿(mào)易者和金融家預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)將不可避免地逐漸開(kāi)放,整合主義者認(rèn)為中國(guó)的雄心將在與國(guó)際社會(huì)加強(qiáng)互動(dòng)的過(guò)程中被削弱,鷹派人士相信美國(guó)的永久霸主地位會(huì)減弱中國(guó)的實(shí)力。但無(wú)論胡蘿卜,還是大棒,都沒(méi)能像預(yù)測(cè)的那樣改變中國(guó)?!?/p>
對(duì)奧巴馬“重返亞太”戰(zhàn)略持批評(píng)意見(jiàn)的評(píng)論家認(rèn)為,這實(shí)際上加劇了亞太地區(qū)的緊張局勢(shì),因?yàn)樗l(fā)出了美國(guó)決心遏制中國(guó)的信號(hào)。該戰(zhàn)略后來(lái)更名為“亞太再平衡”戰(zhàn)略。
在一篇發(fā)表于2019年的題為《沒(méi)有災(zāi)難的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)》(Competition Without Catastrophe)的文章中,坎貝爾和沙利文強(qiáng)調(diào),遏制并不是重返戰(zhàn)略的目標(biāo)。他們認(rèn)為,冷戰(zhàn)式“遏制”策略在與中國(guó)交手時(shí)無(wú)法奏效,因?yàn)橹袊?guó)是一個(gè)比前蘇聯(lián)強(qiáng)大得多的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。美國(guó)政策的目標(biāo)應(yīng)該是弄清楚如何與中國(guó)共存,而不是如何改變它。他們認(rèn)為,美國(guó)政策制定者如果覺(jué)得“在接觸戰(zhàn)略失敗時(shí),戰(zhàn)略競(jìng)爭(zhēng)路線可以成功讓中國(guó)發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變——迫使對(duì)方屈服甚至崩潰”,那么他們就有可能重蹈覆轍。
在本周發(fā)表于《外交事務(wù)》的一篇新文章中,坎貝爾和布魯金斯學(xué)會(huì)(Brookings Institution)中國(guó)戰(zhàn)略研究部主任拉什·多希概述了美國(guó)應(yīng)如何在該地區(qū)靠大力發(fā)展聯(lián)盟來(lái)“鞏固”亞洲安全,他們承認(rèn)這項(xiàng)任務(wù)是“美國(guó)現(xiàn)代治國(guó)史上最具挑戰(zhàn)性的”。
這也是諸多亟待解決的議題之一,而坎貝爾現(xiàn)在有機(jī)會(huì)去驗(yàn)證他的理論了。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Emily
Joe Biden has picked Obama administration veteran Kurt Campbell for a newly created position as senior official for Asia policy, a spokesman for the president-elect's transition team said Wednesday.
Campbell is a former Pentagon official who rose to become the top U.S. diplomat for Asia in Hillary Clinton's State Department. He's a pillar of the Washington policy establishment—polished diplomat, skilled bureaucrat, and respected foreign policy theorist—and boasts an impressive network of relationships in Asia and on Capitol Hill.
In the Biden administration, Campbell's title will be "Indo-Pacific coordinator." (Biden apparently rejected an earlier suggestion to call the new role "Asia czar.") Campbell will report directly to National Security Council adviser Jake Sullivan and be granted broad authority to integrate China policy across "every government agency."
Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin hails Campbell's appointment as a decision that "should reassure nervous Asian allies that the Biden administration is taking the China challenge seriously."
Campbell is a China hawk, widely credited as the architect of the Obama administration's 2012 "pivot to Asia" strategy, which called for taking a more confrontational approach to dealing with China while bolstering U.S. military resources and diplomatic relationships in the rest of the region.
Campbell has elaborated on the approach in a 2016 book, The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia, and a series of subsequent articles in Foreign Affairs. In a 2018 essay co-written with Ely Ratner, who is expected take a senior Asia-related post in the Biden administration, Campbell essentially sided with the Trump administration in declaring America's four-decades-long policy of engagement with China a failure.
"Washington once again put too much faith in its power to shape China’s trajectory," they wrote. "All sides of the policy debate erred: free traders and financiers who foresaw inevitable and increasing openness in China, integrationists who argued that Beijing’s ambitions would be tamed by greater interaction with the international community, and hawks who believed that China’s power would be abated by perpetual American primacy. Neither carrots nor sticks have swayed China as predicted."
Critics of Obama's pivot strategy, which was later rebranded a "rebalance," have argued that it actually aggravated tensions in the Asia-Pacific because it signaled to Beijing that the U.S. was determined to contain China militarily.
In a 2019 essay entitled "Competition Without Catastrophe," Campbell and Sullivan stress that containment wasn't a goal of the pivot strategy. Cold War-style "containment" won't work for dealing with China, they argue, because China is a far more formidable competitor than the old Soviet Union. The aim of U.S. policy should be figuring out how to co-exist with China, not how to change it. American policymakers, they suggest, risk repeating old mistakes if they assume that "competition can succeed in transforming China where engagement failed—this time forcing capitulation or even collapse."
In a new Foreign Affairs essay, published this week, Campbell and co-author Rush Doshi, director of the Brookings Institution's China Strategy Initiative, outline how the U.S. can "shore up" security in Asia by focusing on building alliances in the region, a task they acknowledge as "among the most challenging in the history of modern statecraft."
It's also among the most urgent—and Campbell now has an opportunity to put his theory to the test.