邁克爾·伯里在6月28日表示,美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)即將減半,藍(lán)領(lǐng)工人仍然很搶手,而白領(lǐng)工人則面臨失業(yè)和工資下降。換句話說,上班族的好時(shí)光即將結(jié)束。
他在6月28日的推文中寫道:“我看到勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)兩級(jí)分化,因?yàn)榉鞘炀毢桶胧炀毜膭趧?dòng)力仍然短缺,但白領(lǐng)工人在新冠疫情期間面臨裁汰,將發(fā)現(xiàn)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重過剩,最終導(dǎo)致其工資下降。”
正如2015年的電影《大空頭》(The Big Short)中所描述的那樣,伯里預(yù)測(cè)到了2008年的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)崩盤,并從中獲利,從而聲名鵲起。
他目前管理對(duì)沖基金Scion Asset Management,最近幾周他還在推特(Twitter)上警告:經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來?,F(xiàn)在,他認(rèn)為美國(guó)白領(lǐng)工人大量過剩,并指出了確鑿的證據(jù):最近《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(Wall Street Journal)的一篇文章詳細(xì)描述了特斯拉公司(Tesla)的裁員情況。
特斯拉公司裁員就像煤礦里的金絲雀,這是危險(xiǎn)的預(yù)兆
特斯拉公司的首席執(zhí)行官埃隆·馬斯克于今年6月的早些時(shí)候表示,他計(jì)劃解雇10%拿薪金的白領(lǐng)員工,同時(shí)增加藍(lán)領(lǐng)工人的小時(shí)工崗位。馬斯克在承認(rèn)電動(dòng)汽車巨頭特斯拉公司的新工廠因?yàn)槌掷m(xù)的供應(yīng)鏈問題一直是“燒錢熔爐”后,一直在削減成本。
馬斯克還指出,他認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)陷入衰退,而且衰退將持續(xù)18個(gè)月。6月29日,特斯拉公司又解雇了自動(dòng)駕駛團(tuán)隊(duì)的200名員工,并關(guān)閉了其位于加州的一家工廠。
長(zhǎng)期以來,伯里一直是特斯拉的批評(píng)者,并在網(wǎng)上與埃隆·馬斯克爭(zhēng)論。他在2021年稱特斯拉公司的股價(jià)“荒謬”,并使用期權(quán)策略做空該公司的股票。但伯里目前關(guān)于勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的理論不僅僅得到特斯拉公司最近裁員情況的支持。
隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)開始降溫,通貨膨脹加劇,許多公司,尤其是科技領(lǐng)域的公司,已經(jīng)開始裁員。Coinbase和Crypto.com等加密貨幣公司分別解雇了1100人和260人;今年到目前為止,Netflix公司已經(jīng)進(jìn)行了兩輪裁員,裁員人數(shù)超過700人。
伯里認(rèn)為,裁員表明科技、金融和咨詢等行業(yè)白領(lǐng)工人過剩。另一方面,藍(lán)領(lǐng)工人仍將很搶手,導(dǎo)致勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)兩級(jí)分化。
自兩年多前遠(yuǎn)程辦公時(shí)代開始以來,商界領(lǐng)袖和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們稱,隨著企業(yè)開始考慮將工作外包以降低成本,這可能會(huì)給白領(lǐng)工人帶來更加困難的工作環(huán)境,從而適得其反。如果更多的工作真的可以在任何地方完成,那么他們就沒有必要成為高薪的美國(guó)白領(lǐng)了。
《財(cái)富》雜志的蘭斯·蘭伯特在2021年4月報(bào)道稱,《財(cái)富》雜志和Adobe聯(lián)合開展的一項(xiàng)針對(duì)首席信息官的調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),約64%的首席信息官認(rèn)為,在遠(yuǎn)程辦公熱潮之后,他們所在的企業(yè)將考慮來自世界各地的求職者。這意味著對(duì)全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)的上班族來說,競(jìng)爭(zhēng)將更加激烈,目前有創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的38%的美國(guó)人擁有大學(xué)學(xué)歷,他們正在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)那些很難找到的白領(lǐng)工作,而這些工作可能會(huì)變得越來越難找。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
邁克爾·伯里在6月28日表示,美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)即將減半,藍(lán)領(lǐng)工人仍然很搶手,而白領(lǐng)工人則面臨失業(yè)和工資下降。換句話說,上班族的好時(shí)光即將結(jié)束。
他在6月28日的推文中寫道:“我看到勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)兩級(jí)分化,因?yàn)榉鞘炀毢桶胧炀毜膭趧?dòng)力仍然短缺,但白領(lǐng)工人在新冠疫情期間面臨裁汰,將發(fā)現(xiàn)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重過剩,最終導(dǎo)致其工資下降?!?/p>
正如2015年的電影《大空頭》(The Big Short)中所描述的那樣,伯里預(yù)測(cè)到了2008年的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)崩盤,并從中獲利,從而聲名鵲起。
他目前管理對(duì)沖基金Scion Asset Management,最近幾周他還在推特(Twitter)上警告:經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來?,F(xiàn)在,他認(rèn)為美國(guó)白領(lǐng)工人大量過剩,并指出了確鑿的證據(jù):最近《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(Wall Street Journal)的一篇文章詳細(xì)描述了特斯拉公司(Tesla)的裁員情況。
特斯拉公司裁員就像煤礦里的金絲雀,這是危險(xiǎn)的預(yù)兆
特斯拉公司的首席執(zhí)行官埃隆·馬斯克于今年6月的早些時(shí)候表示,他計(jì)劃解雇10%拿薪金的白領(lǐng)員工,同時(shí)增加藍(lán)領(lǐng)工人的小時(shí)工崗位。馬斯克在承認(rèn)電動(dòng)汽車巨頭特斯拉公司的新工廠因?yàn)槌掷m(xù)的供應(yīng)鏈問題一直是“燒錢熔爐”后,一直在削減成本。
馬斯克還指出,他認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)陷入衰退,而且衰退將持續(xù)18個(gè)月。6月29日,特斯拉公司又解雇了自動(dòng)駕駛團(tuán)隊(duì)的200名員工,并關(guān)閉了其位于加州的一家工廠。
長(zhǎng)期以來,伯里一直是特斯拉的批評(píng)者,并在網(wǎng)上與埃隆·馬斯克爭(zhēng)論。他在2021年稱特斯拉公司的股價(jià)“荒謬”,并使用期權(quán)策略做空該公司的股票。但伯里目前關(guān)于勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的理論不僅僅得到特斯拉公司最近裁員情況的支持。
隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)開始降溫,通貨膨脹加劇,許多公司,尤其是科技領(lǐng)域的公司,已經(jīng)開始裁員。Coinbase和Crypto.com等加密貨幣公司分別解雇了1100人和260人;今年到目前為止,Netflix公司已經(jīng)進(jìn)行了兩輪裁員,裁員人數(shù)超過700人。
伯里認(rèn)為,裁員表明科技、金融和咨詢等行業(yè)白領(lǐng)工人過剩。另一方面,藍(lán)領(lǐng)工人仍將很搶手,導(dǎo)致勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)兩級(jí)分化。
自兩年多前遠(yuǎn)程辦公時(shí)代開始以來,商界領(lǐng)袖和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們稱,隨著企業(yè)開始考慮將工作外包以降低成本,這可能會(huì)給白領(lǐng)工人帶來更加困難的工作環(huán)境,從而適得其反。如果更多的工作真的可以在任何地方完成,那么他們就沒有必要成為高薪的美國(guó)白領(lǐng)了。
《財(cái)富》雜志的蘭斯·蘭伯特在2021年4月報(bào)道稱,《財(cái)富》雜志和Adobe聯(lián)合開展的一項(xiàng)針對(duì)首席信息官的調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),約64%的首席信息官認(rèn)為,在遠(yuǎn)程辦公熱潮之后,他們所在的企業(yè)將考慮來自世界各地的求職者。這意味著對(duì)全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)的上班族來說,競(jìng)爭(zhēng)將更加激烈,目前有創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的38%的美國(guó)人擁有大學(xué)學(xué)歷,他們正在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)那些很難找到的白領(lǐng)工作,而這些工作可能會(huì)變得越來越難找。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Michael Burry said on June 28 that the U.S. labor market is about to be sliced in half, with blue-collar workers remaining a sought-after commodity, while white-collar workers see job losses and falling wages. In other words, the good times are ending for office workers.
“I see a bifurcated labor market developing as unskilled and semiskilled remain in short supply, but white-collar workers, having proven their redundancy during COVID, will find gross excess in the labor market, pressuring wages at the end,” he wrote in a June 28 tweet.
Burry rose to fame after he predicted and profited from the housing market collapse of 2008, as depicted in the 2015 film The Big Short.
He currently runs the hedge fund Scion Asset Management, and in recent weeks used Twitter to warn of an impending recession. Now he’s arguing there’s a significant surplus of white-collar workers in America, and he pointed to a smoking gun as evidence: a recent Wall Street Journal article that detailed layoffs at Tesla.
Tesla layoffs as the canary in the coal mine
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said earlier June that he plans to lay off 10% of his salaried, white-collar staff, while increasing hourly jobs for blue-collar workers. Musk has been cutting costs at Tesla after admitting the EV giant’s new factories have been “money furnaces” amid ongoing supply-chain issues.
Musk also said he believes the U.S. economy is already in a recession that will last up to 18 months. And on June 29, Tesla laid off another 200 workers on its autopilot team and closed a factory in California.
Burry has long been a critic of Tesla and has sparred online with Elon Musk. He called Tesla’s stock price "ridiculous" in 2021, and bet against the company’s stock using an options strategy. But Burry’s current theory about the labor market is backed up by more than just Tesla’s recent layoffs.
A number of firms, particularly in the tech space, have been instituting layoffs as economic growth begins to cool and inflation rages on. Crypto firms like Coinbase and Crypto.com have let go 1,100 and 260 people, respectively; and Netflix let go over 700 people in two separate rounds of layoffs so far this year.
The layoffs are evidence of the glut of white-collar workers in sectors like technology, finance, and consulting, according to Burry. Blue-collar workers, on the other hand, will remain in demand, resulting in a two-tiered labor market moving forward.
Since the remote-work era began over two years ago, business leaders and economists have suggested that it may backfire by creating a more difficult environment for white-collar workers as companies begin to consider offshoring jobs to reduce costs. If more jobs can truly be done anywhere, there's no need for them to be expensive American white-collar workers.
A 2021?Fortune-Adobe?survey of chief information officers found that some 64% of CIOs believe their organization will consider applicants from anywhere in the world after the remote-work boom, Fortune's Lance Lambert reported in April 2021. That means more competition for office workers around the nation at a time when a record 38% of the population has a college degree and is competing for those hard-to-find white-collar jobs, which may just become harder to find.