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瑪麗莎?梅耶爾的谷歌魔法在雅虎玩不轉(zhuǎn)

瑪麗莎?梅耶爾的谷歌魔法在雅虎玩不轉(zhuǎn)

Don Reisinger 2012年07月27日
有人認(rèn)為雅虎新任首席執(zhí)行官瑪麗莎?梅耶爾能把谷歌的魔法帶進(jìn)雅虎,這完全是一廂情愿。

????瑪麗莎?梅耶爾剛接過雅虎(Yahoo)首席執(zhí)行官一職,就有人猜測(cè)她會(huì)將自己在谷歌(Google)學(xué)到的諸多想法帶到雅虎。不過,要說梅耶爾將遵循所謂的谷歌模式(即以搜索為核心,隨后再延伸到其他領(lǐng)域),那完全是無稽之談。

????雖然10年前的谷歌和雅虎非常類似,但現(xiàn)在兩家公司的差異比任何時(shí)候都大。梅耶爾沒有時(shí)間,也沒有足夠的資金來改變這一切。

????梅耶爾面臨的首要問題是搜索。根據(jù)調(diào)研公司康姆斯科(ComScore)本月初發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù),谷歌6月份在美國搜索市場(chǎng)的份額已經(jīng)達(dá)到了66.8%,比5月份時(shí)的66.7%上升了0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。另一份來自調(diào)研公司NetMarketShare的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,谷歌在全球搜索市場(chǎng)的份額已達(dá)82.6%。雅虎上月在美國搜索市場(chǎng)的份額僅為13%,在全球搜索市場(chǎng)的份額則只有區(qū)區(qū)6.8%。兩家公司差距懸殊。即便梅耶爾曾經(jīng)幫助谷歌搜索從默默無聞成長(zhǎng)為如今的行業(yè)霸主,她也無法改變現(xiàn)狀。谷歌在搜索領(lǐng)域早已樹大根深,絕非其它公司所能輕易抗衡。

????另一個(gè)問題是:目前搜索業(yè)務(wù)并不是由雅虎實(shí)際掌控。2009年,時(shí)任雅虎首席執(zhí)行官的卡羅爾?巴茨與微軟(Microsoft)達(dá)成了一項(xiàng)合作協(xié)議,后者將獨(dú)家為雅虎提供“算法及付費(fèi)搜索服務(wù)”。根據(jù)雅虎向美國證券交易委員會(huì)(the Securities and Exchange Commission)提供的文件,合作協(xié)議有效期為10年,范圍涵蓋搜索和雅虎的“應(yīng)用及其它數(shù)字內(nèi)容?!?/p>

????這項(xiàng)協(xié)議束縛了梅耶爾的手腳。她唯一的破解之法是,證明在過去一年微軟為雅虎帶來的每搜索營收額低于預(yù)期。雅虎已經(jīng)表示對(duì)微軟在搜索業(yè)務(wù)上給自己帶來的回報(bào)頗為不滿。雅虎在近期的營收電話會(huì)議上表示:“在減小每搜索營收額差距方面,微軟仍未取得進(jìn)展?!毖呕⑦€透露,通過微軟搜索帶來的營收大大低于該公司之前的既定目標(biāo)。

????現(xiàn)在并不清楚如果梅耶爾撕毀協(xié)議的話,她的后續(xù)計(jì)劃是什么。雅虎離開搜索市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)好些年了,如果想卷土重來,必然耗資巨大,如今搖搖欲墜的雅虎已難以承受。雅虎唯一能做的也許是與谷歌合作,不過,這樣的決定將徹底擊碎雅虎希望重返搜索領(lǐng)域巨人行列的夢(mèng)想。

????但這也許并不重要。畢竟,雅虎是一家與谷歌完全不一樣的公司。在很大程度上,谷歌并不進(jìn)行內(nèi)容創(chuàng)造,而是決定如何利用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上的海量信息;雅虎則不大一樣,它擁有許多橫跨諸多行業(yè)的內(nèi)容網(wǎng)站。如果梅耶爾真的決定追隨谷歌模式,那么她勢(shì)必要關(guān)閉那些站點(diǎn)。隨之而來的問題是:雅虎將在轉(zhuǎn)型期喪失大筆營收。

????此外,廣告業(yè)務(wù)怎么辦?雖然雅虎在在線廣告市場(chǎng)仍占據(jù)一席之地,但份額卻在不斷下降。去年12月,廣告公司ZenithOptimedia 指出,截止到2010年底,雅虎在在線廣告市場(chǎng)的份額僅為8.3%。而在2006年,雅虎的市場(chǎng)份額還有18.7%。谷歌在全球互聯(lián)網(wǎng)廣告市場(chǎng)的份額則從2006年34.9%上升到了2010年底的44.1%。

????在搜索廣告方面,還有更壞的消息等著雅虎。來自市場(chǎng)調(diào)研公司eMarketer的消息,到今年年底,谷歌將占據(jù)美國搜索廣告市場(chǎng)78%的份額,雅虎份額則將萎縮至4.5%,而到2014年底,這個(gè)數(shù)字將進(jìn)一步萎縮至3%。谷歌在在線廣告領(lǐng)域的巨大成功離不開兩大核心元素:搜索份額和并購。使用谷歌搜索的人越多,谷歌產(chǎn)生的收益也就越多,這一點(diǎn)顯而易見。依靠這一點(diǎn),谷歌賺到了足夠多的錢,然后開始收購主要的在線廣告公司,例如DoubleClick等。

????雅虎則寒磣得多。最近,該公司決定出售價(jià)值70億美元的中國阿里巴巴公司(Alibaba)股份以籌集現(xiàn)金。過去五年,雅虎股價(jià)已累計(jì)下跌了將近38%,看來梅耶爾恐怕很難說服潛在的賣家接受部分現(xiàn)金、部分股權(quán)的收購交易。

????梅耶爾對(duì)上面這些情況心知肚明。接過雅虎首席執(zhí)行官一職時(shí),梅耶爾肯定知道自己所要面臨的爛攤子,而她必然也進(jìn)行了一番規(guī)劃。不過,想把雅虎變成下一個(gè)谷歌是行不通的。此時(shí)此刻,雅虎與谷歌天差地別,而且雅虎實(shí)力已經(jīng)大不如前,根本做不到這一點(diǎn)。

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????As soon as Marissa Mayer was tapped to be Yahoo's CEO, speculation arose that she would bring ideas she learned at Google to Yahoo. But the idea that Mayer will follow the so-called Google model, which centers on search and then extends its tentacles into other territories, is plain nonsense.

????Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO), while similar 10 years ago, are now more unlike than ever before. And Mayer won't have the time nor the cash to change that.

????Her first issue is search. According to data released earlier this month from research firm ComScore, Google's search market share in the U.S. stood at 66.8% in June, jumping one-tenth of a percentage point from 66.7% in May. Google holds 82.6% of the worldwide search market, according to data from NetMarketShare. In the U.S. last month, Yahoo's search could only muster 13% market share. And worldwide, Yahoo owns only 6.8% of the search market. That's a major gap. And not even Mayer, who helped grow Google's Search into the behemoth that it is today, could change that; Google's search is simply far too sophisticated to be so easily matched.

????There's another problem: Yahoo doesn't actually control its search any longer. Back in 2009, then-Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz signed a search pact that made Microsoft (MSFT) the exclusive "provider for algorithmic and paid search services." According to a document the companies filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), that deal is good for 10 years, and extends from Search to Yahoo's "applications and other digital properties."

????That agreement ties Mayer's hands. Her only out would be to prove that the revenue per search Microsoft is generating for Yahoo over a 12-month period is lower than expected. Yahoo has expressed displeasure over Microsoft's return on its search, saying at a recent earnings call that it was "unable to report progress by Microsoft on closing the gap in marketplace RPS." The revenue Microsoft is generating through its search is substantially lower than what the companies had set as their goal, Yahoo says.

????Still, it's not clear what Mayer could really do if she pulls out of the deal. Yahoo hasn't been in the search game for years, and getting back into it is too costly for the ailing company. Yahoo's only move might be to partner with Google -- a decision that would effectively shatter any hopes of Mayer's company actually becoming a true competitor to the search giant again.

????It may not matter much. Yahoo is an entirely different company than Google. Google has largely stayed out of the content-creation business, deciding instead to leverage information from around the Web. Yahoo, meanwhile, has a host of content properties spanning several industries. If Mayer truly wanted to follow the Google model, she'd eliminate all of those sites. There's just one problem: she'd lose significant revenue in the process.

????And what about advertising? Although Yahoo has a presence in the online advertising market, the company's market share is on the decline. Back in December, advertising firm ZenithOptimedia reported that Yahoo owned just 8.3% of the online advertising market at the end of 2010. In 2006, the company's market share stood at 18.7%. Google has watched its share of the global Internet ad business surge from 34.9% in 2006 to 44.1% at the end of 2010.

????It's an even worse story for Yahoo in search ads. According to research firm eMarketer, Google will own 78% of the U.S. search ad market by the end of this year. Yahoo's share will land at 4.5%. By the end of 2014, it's expected to fall to 3%, according to eMarketer. Google's success in the online ad business has been derived from two core elements: search popularity and acquisitions. When more people come to its search engine, Google can generate more cash. It's simple math. And thanks to that, Google has been able to build up enough cash and equity to acquire major online ad companies, like DoubleClick.

????But Yahoo doesn't have that luxury. The company recently decided to offload its $7 billion interest in China-based Alibaba just to raise some cash. And with a stock that's been down nearly 38% over the last five years, Mayer might have a hard time coaxing would-be sellers into a part-cash, part-equity deal.

????This isn't news to Mayer. She undoubtedly knew the mess she was inheriting when she decided to take the Yahoo CEO job and surely has some ideas on what she wants to do. But trying to turn Yahoo into the next Google won't work. At this point, the companies are simply too different and her operation too diminished to pull it off.

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