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管理學(xué)大師諫言中美競(jìng)爭(zhēng)

管理學(xué)大師諫言中美競(jìng)爭(zhēng)

Anne VanderMey 2012年09月20日
管理學(xué)大師理查德?達(dá)維尼認(rèn)為:如果美國(guó)不在商業(yè)領(lǐng)域努力上進(jìn),輸給中國(guó)就只是時(shí)間問題了。

??? 理查德?達(dá)維尼向美國(guó)的政客們傳達(dá)了一條信息:最好別擋著(商業(yè)發(fā)展)的道路。這位知名管理學(xué)教授任教于達(dá)特茅斯學(xué)院塔克商學(xué)院(Tuck School of Business,Dartmouth College),他認(rèn)為政府應(yīng)該減少開支,削弱官員權(quán)力。不過在談及商業(yè)的時(shí)候,達(dá)維尼卻認(rèn)為政府應(yīng)該發(fā)揮更大作用。他指出,來自中國(guó)的威脅不斷逼近,我們需要重新思考自由放任的經(jīng)濟(jì)體系,甚至要審視自由市場(chǎng)本身。達(dá)維尼的新書《戰(zhàn)略資本主義:贏得資本家冷戰(zhàn)的新經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略》即將出版之際接受《財(cái)富》(Fortune)記者安妮?范德梅耶采訪。

我們的資本主義模式哪里出了錯(cuò)?

????許多我們堅(jiān)信的教條都是扯淡,比如自由放任的經(jīng)濟(jì)終將獲勝。另一個(gè)例子就是認(rèn)為政府不能干預(yù)經(jīng)濟(jì),得到他們支持的都會(huì)失敗。中國(guó)政府就完全顛覆了這一看法,他們催生了勝利者。他們?cè)谔柲芎惋L(fēng)力發(fā)電方面也會(huì)取得成功,就因?yàn)樗麄冇泻芎玫挠?jì)劃安排。當(dāng)你遇到一個(gè)精明的戰(zhàn)略資本家時(shí),自由市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)反而是劣勢(shì)。只有對(duì)付法國(guó)那樣的笨蛋時(shí),自由市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)才有勝機(jī)。

如何改進(jìn)我們的系統(tǒng)呢?

????首先要平衡預(yù)算。這是米特?羅姆尼和保羅?瑞安的核心政策之一,我也很同意。但他們同時(shí)也提到要求中國(guó)向美國(guó)開放市場(chǎng),我覺得這種想法幼稚得無以復(fù)加。根據(jù)我到中國(guó)訪問得來的印象,中國(guó)人不會(huì)做損害自己利益的事情。他們正在走向勝利,而且他們深知這一點(diǎn)。所以他們會(huì)尋求主導(dǎo)權(quán),而不是合作。

美國(guó)怎樣才能和中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)呢?

????我們需要主動(dòng)進(jìn)攻。給你舉個(gè)例子。我覺得我們正處于第三次工業(yè)革命的前夜。大量的新技術(shù)正在美國(guó)孕育發(fā)展,其中包括三維打印和分子制造。這次制造業(yè)的革命會(huì)產(chǎn)生什么影響呢?雖然在美國(guó)無法產(chǎn)生很多新的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì),但會(huì)結(jié)束中國(guó)成為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治實(shí)力中心所依賴的商業(yè)模式。大規(guī)模制造業(yè)作為中國(guó)的就業(yè)引擎將逐步走向消亡。

????Richard D'Aveni has a message for American politicians: Get out of the way, sort of. The renowned management professor at Dartmouth College's Tuck School of Business says the government should spend less and give less power to elected officials. But when it comes to business, he also thinks the state should do a lot more. The looming threat posed by China requires rethinking our laissez-faire system, D'Aveni says, and even questioning the free market itself. Author of the forthcoming book, Strategic Capitalism: The New Economic Strategy for Winning the Capitalist Cold War, D'Aveni spoke with Fortune's Anne VanderMey about how the U.S. should adapt to compete with China's ascendant brand of state-sponsored capitalism, before China is the only superpower left. Edited excerpts:

What's wrong with our version of capitalism?

????A lot of things that we take for granted -- like that laissez-faire always wins -- are a lot of crap. Another example is the idea that government can't pick winners and losers. All they pick are losers. The Chinese government is proving the exact opposite. They're creating winners. And they're going to work that way for solar energy and wind energy technology because everything is coordinated. The free market has basically got a disadvantage when you're against a smart strategic capitalist. It's different when you're against a dumb one, you know, like France.

How do we fix the system?

????The first thing is to balance the budget. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan -- that's one of their centerpieces, and I agree with that. But they also talk about asking China to open up their market to the U.S. I think they're being incredibly na?ve, based on the trips I've made there -- that somehow the Chinese will do things against their interests. They're winning, and they know they're winning, and they're seeking hegemony. They're not seeking cooperation.

How does the U.S. compete with that?

????We need to go on the offensive. Let me give you an example. I think that we are on the verge of a third industrial revolution. There are all kinds of new technologies that are just on the verge of coming out in the United States, including 3-D printing and molecular manufacturing. How does that manufacturing revolution change things? It's not going to create a lot of jobs in the United States, but on the other hand, it's going to upend the business model that puts China at the center of global economic power and political power. China's employment engine, mass manufacturing, is going to die.

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