????埃及穆巴拉克政權(quán)垮臺(tái)時(shí)，我在《財(cái)富》（Fortune）雜志上發(fā)表了專欄文章，提出商界人士不應(yīng)持觀望立場(chǎng)。相反，他們應(yīng)該積極參與解決撕裂埃及社會(huì)結(jié)構(gòu)的信任缺失問題。我認(rèn)為，如果不培養(yǎng)信任，各種機(jī)構(gòu)都將無(wú)法正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。

????當(dāng)時(shí)，我那些來(lái)自埃及、并在埃及和其他地方生活的商界學(xué)生對(duì)他們所走上的道路進(jìn)行了思考。他們大多為開羅解放廣場(chǎng)（Tahrir Square）的熱烈氣氛感到欣喜若狂，因?yàn)樗雌饋?lái)似乎是民主的開端。對(duì)于他們而言，另一種情況似乎不太可能出現(xiàn)：即埃及在沒有強(qiáng)權(quán)的情況下陷入混亂。不管是好是壞，過(guò)去穆巴拉克政權(quán)一手遮天，使得埃及各對(duì)立派別之間的斗爭(zhēng)并未陷入失控境地。

????近兩年后，解放廣場(chǎng)已被重新占領(lǐng)。我再度遇上了我的學(xué)生。他們都顯得急躁和失望。穆斯林兄弟會(huì)（Muslim Brotherhood）的穆爾西已當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)，但他試圖獲取超過(guò)普通民眾可接受范圍內(nèi)的權(quán)力。最近遭到穆爾西撤換的將領(lǐng)們正發(fā)出威脅的聲音。法官們也感到很委屈，他們被指責(zé)為舊政權(quán)的走狗。此外，該國(guó)的貿(mào)易和投資活動(dòng)也陷入停滯狀態(tài)。

????不耐煩是可以理解的，因?yàn)樗麄兊娜粘Ｉ詈蜕?jì)都受到了威脅。作為一個(gè)企業(yè)家，我可以理解這種挫敗感。在長(zhǎng)達(dá)兩年的時(shí)間里一直讓金融家閑置資本、工人待業(yè)或工廠停工，確實(shí)難以接受。

????然而，作為一個(gè)學(xué)者，我唯一感到意外的是：最近發(fā)生的事件讓所有人都感到驚訝。就重新安排權(quán)力坐席達(dá)成新協(xié)定——誰(shuí)掌握什么樣的權(quán)力以及如何問責(zé)——是一個(gè)混亂的過(guò)程。據(jù)我估計(jì)，這個(gè)過(guò)程需要耗時(shí)數(shù)年，甚至幾十年。我無(wú)法想象新的安排在一年半內(nèi)達(dá)成。

????我的一位口才頗佳的學(xué)生感嘆到：“看到開羅的今天，我覺得就像是看到了喀布爾?！毖韵轮馐?，這個(gè)昔日阿拉伯世界知識(shí)分子聚集的中心應(yīng)該做得更好。也許是這樣吧，但把開羅比作喀布爾是過(guò)于悲觀了。其他的比喻更適合些。

????例如，在最近的新聞?lì)^條中，另一個(gè)以伊斯蘭教徒為主的國(guó)家——巴基斯坦也面臨內(nèi)部紛爭(zhēng)。它的情況與埃及有些相似之處。軍方和司法部門都自認(rèn)為是國(guó)家的保護(hù)者。若平民政府無(wú)能，或者腐敗程度超過(guò)軍方容忍范圍，巴基斯坦軍隊(duì)隨時(shí)會(huì)介入干預(yù)。巴基斯坦司法部門保持了積極的姿態(tài)，因?yàn)楸澈笥幸徊糠职突固谷说募?lì)。這些人希望有人站出來(lái)，對(duì)權(quán)力機(jī)構(gòu)說(shuō)實(shí)話。但在其他人看來(lái)，司法部門在爭(zhēng)取權(quán)力方面走過(guò)頭了。正如穆爾西必須把重點(diǎn)放在埃及與以色列的關(guān)系上，巴基斯坦也在勉力與鄰國(guó)阿富汗改善關(guān)系。巴基斯坦與阿富汗的國(guó)境線存在劃分不清的問題。從巴基斯坦的經(jīng)驗(yàn)來(lái)看，埃及前路漫長(zhǎng)。

????When Hosni Mubarak's regime fell in Egypt, I wrote in a?column for?Fortune?that businesspeople should not stand by the sidelines. Rather, they should actively combat the deficit of trust that had rent the Egyptian social fabric. Without nurturing trust, I argued, institutions would not function properly.

????At the time, my students -- businesspeople of Egyptian origin living within Egypt and elsewhere -- mused about the course they were on.?Most were ecstatic over the heady atmosphere in Tahrir Square, which looked to them like the onset of democracy.?The alternative seemed less likely to them: a collapse into chaos in the absence of the authoritarian hand that had, for better or worse, kept Egypt's contending factions in check.

????Almost two years later, Tahrir Square has been re-occupied. I caught up with my students again.?They are all impatient and disillusioned. Morsi, of the Muslim Brotherhood, has been elected president but has tried to assume more power than the denizens of the street are willing to concede.?The generals, emasculated by Morsi lately, are making threatening noises on the sidelines. The judges feel aggrieved, accused of being stooges of the old regime.?And commerce and investment flows are in stasis.

????The impatience is understandable as daily lives, and livelihoods, are at stake.?As an entrepreneur, I can relate to the frustration. Two years is a long time for a financier to keep capital un-deployed, or for workers to be in limbo, or production runs to be compromised.

????Yet, as a scholar, the only surprise is that anyone is surprised at the recent turn of events.?Re-arranging an institutional deck of chairs -- reaching a new bargain about who wields what kinds of authority and how they will be held accountable -- is a messy process that, in my estimation, takes years, if not decades sometimes.?I'm hard-pressed to imagine that a new arrangement could have been settled on in a year-and-a-half.

????One of my more articulate students lamented, "When I see Cairo today, it feels like Kabul," reflecting the view that the erstwhile intellectual center of the Arab world ought to do better. Maybe so, but comparisons to Kabul are overly pessimistic. Others are more apt.

????Pakistan, another majority Islamic country in the news today, also suffers from internal strife. It shares some similarities to Egypt. The military and the judiciary consider themselves protectors of the country.?Pakistan's army is ready to step in if civilian incompetence or corruption exceeds tolerable (to them) bounds.?The judiciary is an activist one, egged on by relieved Pakistanis eager to see someone speak truth to power, but, in others' views, over-reaching in its assumption of power. Just as Morsi must focus on his country's relationship with Israel, Pakistan struggles with Afghanistan along its poorly demarcated border.?To the extent that the Pakistani experience has anything to say about Egypt's evolution, we're in for a long journey.