????總理雷杰普·塔伊普·埃爾多安掌權(quán)的時代，如今的土耳其也是另一個處境類似的國家。和埃及一樣，土耳其也迎來伊斯蘭教興起、以及軍隊退出政壇的新局面，盡管歷史上軍方一直在土耳其政壇占據(jù)舉足輕重的地位。伊斯坦布爾的高級將領(lǐng)們已經(jīng)遭到了有力地壓制。與此同時，土耳其全社會正在重新審視國父穆斯塔法·凱末爾·阿塔土克公開宣稱的世俗主義。愛琴海沿岸的精英們正在接受宗教氣息更濃厚的安那托利亞人的崛起。由于土耳其試圖將自身定位為伊斯蘭世界的領(lǐng)袖，人們很容易忘記從軍方掌權(quán)到埃爾多安時代過渡所經(jīng)歷的那個漫長時期。

????1998年5月印尼強(qiáng)人蘇哈托的倒臺也為我們提供了一個教訓(xùn)。在印尼，到現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)班邦相對穩(wěn)定的政權(quán)，過渡期也經(jīng)歷了相當(dāng)久的時間，也許是10年。期間，該國經(jīng)歷了哈比比、蘇加諾、瓦希德以及現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)的第一個任期。這不是一個一蹴而就的過程。

????然而，我那些學(xué)生依然一如既往地務(wù)實(shí)，并沒有讓不耐煩阻礙他們的努力。他們將采取什么行動？其中一位學(xué)生說，穆巴拉克掌權(quán)時代，埃及之所以出現(xiàn)那樣的情況，是因?yàn)闆]有人敢站出來說話。其實(shí)大多數(shù)民眾都期待民主而不是強(qiáng)人統(tǒng)治。今天，提及他拿阿富汗所做的比較，我的那位學(xué)生說，同樣的錯誤很可能會在埃及重演。如果埃及的溫和派不站出來說話，持極端看法的人就會趁虛而入。用他的話說，到那時，埃及將為今天的沉默付出代價。

????對于我在國外工作的學(xué)生和其他企業(yè)家，我的建議沒有改變。不要急著找退路，而應(yīng)積極參與，在埃及身體力行、或者通過社交媒體去努力。這是塑造權(quán)力新輪廓的唯一方式。行動起來，盡自己的一份力。

????韓太云是哈佛商學(xué)院豪爾赫·保羅·雷曼教授、哈佛大學(xué)的南亞研究所主任以及《新興市場的制勝之道：戰(zhàn)略和執(zhí)行路線圖》（哈佛商業(yè)出版社，2010年）的聯(lián)合作者。

????Turkey is another one to watch these days, in the era of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As in Egypt, Turkey features the rise of Islam, and the sidelining of a historically paramount army. Istanbul's generals have been decisively silenced. Along with that, Turkey is undergoing a societal reexamination Turkish founding father Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's avowed secularism. The elites of the Aegean coast are coming to terms with the ascent of the more religious Anatolians.?As Turkey tries to position itself as a leader of the Islamic world, it is easy to forget that the transition from the generals to Erdogan took time.

????The May 1998 fall of strongman Suharto in Indonesia also offers us a lesson. Here, the transition to the somewhat stable regime of current President Bambang took some time, perhaps a decade, through Habibie, Sukarnoputri, Wahid, and the current president's first term. It is not an overnight process.

????Yet my students, ever practical, have not let their impatience stymie their efforts.?What are they to do? One of them said that the situation in Egypt under Mubarak came about because no one dared to speak up.?Most would have preferred a democratic outcome to the strongman's rule.?Today, referring back to his Afghanistan comparison, my student said the same error might very well repeat itself. If Egyptian moderates don't speak up, those with extreme views will, and then, in his words, Egypt will get what this silence merits.

????My advice to my students and other entrepreneurs working abroad has not changed. Don't rush for the exits; engage, either physically if in Egypt, or through social media. It is the only way to shape the new contours of power. Stand up and be counted.

????Tarun Khanna is Jorge Paulo Lemann Professor at the Harvard Business School, Director of Harvard University's South Asia Institute, and co-author of?Winning in Emerging Markets: A Roadmap for Strategy and Execution?(Harvard Business Press, 2010).