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生意場的運(yùn)氣論

生意場的運(yùn)氣論

Kurt Wagner 2013年02月16日
我們工作生活的方方面面無一不是運(yùn)氣和能力綜合作用的結(jié)果。當(dāng)今世界,所有人的能力都在提高,人跟人在能力上的差距越來越小。這是,決定成敗的往往只是一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)運(yùn)氣。然而,運(yùn)氣捉摸不定,我們能夠做到的,只有牢牢抓住可控因素。

????邁克?莫伯辛當(dāng)時(shí)并沒有想到,周日在大學(xué)看球賽竟會幫他在日后找到了一份投行的工作——但這就是所謂的運(yùn)氣。

????那時(shí)還是大四學(xué)生的莫伯辛去參加德崇(Drexel Burnham Lambert)高管在紐約舉行的最后一輪面試。這時(shí),高管桌子下面一個(gè)帶有華盛頓紅人隊(duì)(Washington Redskins)標(biāo)志的垃圾桶引起了他的注意。

????莫伯辛是一名美式足球球迷,因此,他在15分鐘的面試時(shí)間里滿口講的都是對美式足球的激情,卻對銀行業(yè)務(wù)只字未提。他拿到了這個(gè)工作。(幾個(gè)月之后,他了解到,這名高管為了錄用他而置其他面試者的評論于不顧。)莫伯辛在他最近出版的《成功方程式》(The Success Equation)一書中寫到:“我的職業(yè)生涯始于一個(gè)垃圾桶?!?/p>

????我們的生活的方方面面都體現(xiàn)了運(yùn)氣和能力的合力,從我們遇到的人,薪水的多少,一直到壽命的長短,概莫能外。但是理解每個(gè)元素的作用則是一件困難的事。

????莫伯辛在業(yè)界擁有超過25年的投資經(jīng)驗(yàn)。他在書中討論了運(yùn)氣和能力在體育、業(yè)務(wù)和投資領(lǐng)域相互碰撞的情況。兼任哥倫比亞商學(xué)院(Columbia Business School)教師的莫伯辛說:“我總能感覺到,光意識到運(yùn)氣的作用是不夠的。下一步應(yīng)該試著思考如何對它進(jìn)行量化,最終搞清楚它對決策的影響?!?/p>

????為即將上任的首席執(zhí)行官制定薪資標(biāo)準(zhǔn),投資哪支共同基金,這些都是商業(yè)決策,而商業(yè)決策經(jīng)常會通盤地忽視運(yùn)氣元素。但認(rèn)為,之前的成功僅取決于個(gè)人能力,卻忽視運(yùn)氣的作用,莫伯辛認(rèn)為這種認(rèn)識是危險(xiǎn)的。

????如今,好運(yùn)氣似乎前所未有地重要。莫伯辛解釋道,這一理論在于,由于全世界人民的能力都在提高,運(yùn)氣正日益成為區(qū)分結(jié)果的決定性因素。

????莫伯辛在自己的書里引用了一個(gè)棒球案例來說明這一理念——即能力悖論。案例的主角是棒球史上最有名的擊球手之一泰德?威廉姆斯,他是最后一位在整個(gè)賽季中擁有平均.400打擊率的球手(這是他在1941年取得的成績)。莫伯辛寫到,并不是如今球員的能力比威廉姆斯那個(gè)時(shí)代的球員的能力差,而是因?yàn)槁?lián)盟的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)在提高。他說:“如今頂尖球員和普通球員之間的差距較一兩代人之前的差距要小得多。因此這也就意味著,深藏不露的運(yùn)氣在決定勝負(fù)的過程中發(fā)揮著越來越大的作用?!?/p>

????莫伯辛說,公司也是一樣,因?yàn)楫?dāng)今這個(gè)世界奉行的就是勝者為王的法則。同時(shí)在市場上銷售同一產(chǎn)品的兩家公司可能會擁有兩種截然相反的業(yè)績。他說:“模擬實(shí)驗(yàn)表明,如果你打算一遍又一遍地游玩天下,重播錄影帶,每一遍都會得到不同的答案?!边@也是投資具有高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的原因,尤其是投資年輕的、不成熟的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司。當(dāng)所有的可控成功因素都具備了之后,一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)好運(yùn)氣就能讓公司平步青云,而一點(diǎn)霉運(yùn)則可以讓公司走上創(chuàng)業(yè)的不歸路。

????對于很多人來說,挑戰(zhàn)在于接受這樣一個(gè)事實(shí),運(yùn)氣是完全不為人的意識所左右的。莫伯辛說,在這一方面,我們的大腦可能是我們最大的敵人,因?yàn)槲覀儠灸艿厝L試下結(jié)論,同時(shí)弄清楚生活中事情的來龍去脈。這些結(jié)論通常都沒有考慮運(yùn)氣,特別是在事情發(fā)展順利的時(shí)候。人們往往認(rèn)為成功是個(gè)人杰出能力的體現(xiàn);而另一方面,失敗則往往歸因于糟糕的運(yùn)氣。莫伯辛說:“我認(rèn)為這是大環(huán)境的一種表象,在這里,‘嗨,如果我做的好,是因?yàn)槲沂且粋€(gè)好人?!绻易龅牟缓茫敲础靺?,如今的世道不怎么喜歡我?!?/p>

????對于投資者來說,《成功方程式》可能看起來只是過家家的讀物;畢竟,沒人愿意接受這樣的觀點(diǎn),即他們無法控制公司未來的財(cái)務(wù)狀況。但是這本書也在某種意義上進(jìn)行了思考,同時(shí)重申了這樣一種觀念:不管怎么樣,我們所有人都在不同程度地受到各種難以理解的力量的制約。

????莫伯辛說:“關(guān)鍵在于關(guān)注可控的因素。有時(shí)候,運(yùn)氣會眷顧你,有時(shí)則不會。但是,只要你盡量讓事情在你的有效控制范圍之內(nèi),就沒必要太擔(dān)心。”

????Michael Mauboussin didn't realize that watching football on Sundays in college would one day land him his first job at an investment bank -- but that's the nature of luck.

????Mauboussin, then a college senior, walked in for his final interview with a top executive at Drexel Burnham Lambert in New York when a trash can featuring the Washington Redskins logo caught his eye from under the executive's desk.

????A football fan, Mauboussin spent his 15-minute interview discussing a shared passion that had nothing to do with banking. The job was his. (Months later, he learned that the executive overrode reviews given by other interviewers in order to get him the position.) "My career," writes Mauboussin in his recently published book, The Success Equation, "was launched by a trash can."

????A combination of luck and skill contributes to every aspect of our lives, from the people we meet, to how much we earn, to how long we have to live. But understanding the role that each element plays is the tricky part.

????Mauboussin, who has more than 25 years of investment experience under his belt, explores in his book where luck and skill collide in sports, business, and investing. "I'd felt that in every case, being aware of the role of luck was simply not enough," says Mauboussin, who also teaches at ColumbiaBusinessSchool. "The next step should be to try and think about how to quantify that and then, ultimately, what that should mean for making decisions."

????Business decisions, like how much to pay an incoming CEO or which mutual fund to invest in, often disregard the element of luck entirely. But assuming that prior success is merely associated to a person's skill -- and ignoring luck's role -- is dangerous, argues Mauboussin.

????Good fortune seems to be more critical today than ever. The theory, explains Mauboussin, is that as more of the world becomes more skilled, luck increasingly becomes the deciding element that separates one outcome from another.

????In his book, Mauboussin uses a baseball example to illustrate this idea -- known as the Paradox of Skill -- by focusing on Ted Williams, one of the game's greatest hitters, and the last player to eclipse a .400 batting average for an entire season (which he did in 1941). It's not that players today aren't as skilled as they were during Williams' time, writes Mauboussin. It's that the standards in the league have risen. "The difference between the very best guys and the average guys is much smaller today than it was a generation or two ago," he says. "So that means that luck, which has always been lurking in the background, is playing a larger role in determining outcomes."

????The same goes for companies, which are immersed in a social world that supports a winner-takes-all mentality, says Mauboussin. Two companies that bring identical products to market at the same time may experience vastly different outcomes. "The simulations show that if you were to play the world over and over, replay the tape, you would get different answers in different runs," he says. That's what makes investing such a risky business, especially investing in young, unproven startups. When all the controllable ingredients for success are lined up, all it takes is a little bit of luck to put one company on the path toward billions -- or a little bad luck to send another spiraling toward the startup graveyard.

????For many, the challenge is simply accepting that luck is completely outside of our control. Our brains may be our biggest enemies in coming to terms with this, as we naturally try to draw conclusions and determine causes for the things that happen in our lives, says Mauboussin. Those conclusions often exclude the role of fortune, especially when things go well. Success is often deemed a result of impressive skill; failure, on the other hand, is often chalked up to bad luck. "I think that's part of the whole system where, 'Hey, if I'm doing well it's because I'm a good guy,'" says Mauboussin. "If I'm not doing well, then 'Gee, the world doesn't like me today.'"

????To investors, The Success Equation may seem starting; after all, no one wants to accept that their financial future is outside of their control. But the book also liberates in a way, reinforcing the belief that no matter what, we are all, in one way or another, at the mercy of forces beyond our reach.

????"The key is to focus on what you can control," says Mauboussin. "Some days things will go for you and some days they won't, but as long as you are doing the things that are in your control as effectively as you can, you shouldn't worry so much."

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