????通用汽車（GM）召回了上千萬輛有缺陷汽車，這很難不讓人們?nèi)ハ?，如果在本世紀初負責(zé)設(shè)計點火開關(guān)的設(shè)計團隊中有更多的非工程師人員參與，情況是否會有所不同呢？他們是否能更好地預(yù)見到和科技風(fēng)險有關(guān)的社會影響以及聲譽風(fēng)險呢？一個不同的風(fēng)險評估團隊，或者說一個由更多思路開闊的多面手賦予其靈感的團隊，能否讓通用汽車避免在過去六個月付出超過17億美元的代價召回 2,800多萬輛汽車的厄運呢？

????更寬泛地說，就評估公司風(fēng)險而言，誰處于最有利的位置？預(yù)測自己的支付處理系統(tǒng)遭到網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊的可能性對一家零售企業(yè)來說是個關(guān)鍵問題嗎？煙草行業(yè)從業(yè)者是否應(yīng)該關(guān)注電子煙預(yù)測普及率的準確性或者監(jiān)管部門對人們使用電子煙的反應(yīng)呢？今后的碳排放交易價格走勢如何？它可能會對煤炭和電力行業(yè)產(chǎn)生什么樣的影響？

????全世界的公司董事會都越來越關(guān)注風(fēng)險——這項工作本質(zhì)上就是預(yù)測實際情況和預(yù)期之間可能出現(xiàn)的偏差，但在預(yù)測未來方面誰處于最佳位置呢？原因是什么呢？對于這個問題，人們已經(jīng)進行了有針對性的研究，但我認為這些研究成果并未對公司培養(yǎng)現(xiàn)任和未來負責(zé)人的思路產(chǎn)生影響。

????有說服力的學(xué)術(shù)研究表明，專家對自身專業(yè)領(lǐng)域發(fā)展態(tài)勢的預(yù)測實際上還沒有非專家準確，這和人們的直覺相去甚遠。預(yù)測者越專業(yè)，所做預(yù)期的準確程度就越低。出現(xiàn)這種情況的一個可能原因是我們會拘泥于自己所專注的領(lǐng)域。這就好像我們手里拿著錘子，然后無論看向哪里都會發(fā)現(xiàn)釘子——這種情況并不讓人感到意外。

????專家們的預(yù)測史充斥著失敗。讓我們看看計算機市場以及計算機行業(yè)中處于領(lǐng)軍位置的專家所做的預(yù)測吧。1943年，備受尊重的IBM董事長托馬斯?沃森表示，他相信會出現(xiàn)一個“差不多由五臺計算機構(gòu)成的全球市場?！?977年，數(shù)字設(shè)備公司（Digital Equipment Corporation）創(chuàng)始人、總裁兼董事長肯?奧爾森稱：“人們沒有理由產(chǎn)生在家里擺一臺計算機的想法?！?/p>

????今天，全球計算機和平板電腦市場每年的規(guī)模已經(jīng)超過數(shù)億臺。沃森和奧爾森絕對都是行業(yè)先行者，許多人都認為他們是計算機領(lǐng)域的頂尖專家和預(yù)言者，但他們的預(yù)測和實際情況有著天壤之別。

????實踐表明，通信領(lǐng)域?qū)＜业念A(yù)測也準確不到哪兒去。1980年，麥肯錫（McKinsey）的市場規(guī)模專家曾針對美國電話電報公司（AT&T）預(yù)計，到2000年全球手機市場中的用戶人數(shù)不會超過100萬人。而實際情況是，這個數(shù)字遠高于1億人?？萍夹袠I(yè)專家、時任微軟（Microsoft）首席執(zhí)行官的史蒂夫?鮑爾默2007年曾直率地對蘋果公司（Apple）的iPhone做出這樣的預(yù)測：“iPhone絕不會獲得多少市場份額，絕對不會?！苯Y(jié)果呢，市場研究機構(gòu)comScore的數(shù)據(jù)表明，今年4月份iPhone的市場份額約為41%。請大家來判斷一下這樣的市場份額算不算大。

????As GM GM -0.32% recalls millions of faulty vehicles, it’s hard not to wonder if the outcome would have been different if its product design team tasked to design ignition switches had involved more non-engineers in the early 2000s? Might they have been able to better predict the social impact and reputational risks associated with technological risks? Is it possible that a different risk group – inspired by broad-minded generalists – could have prevented the recall of more than 28 million vehicles over the last six months at a cost in excess of $1.7 billion?

????More broadly, who is best positioned to assess a company’s risks? Is it critical for a retailer to predict the likelihood of a cyber attack on its payment processing system? Should those in the tobacco industry care about the accuracy of their e-cigarette adoption projections, or the regulatory response to such developments? What about the future price of carbon and the impact it might have on the coal and power production industries?

????Increasingly, boardrooms around the world have focused on risk – a task that is essentially one of predicting possible deviations from expectations, but who is really best positioned to make predictions about the future and why? There’s been meaningful research conducted on this topic, but I don’t believe the findings have affected how organizations think about developing their current and future leaders.

????In a quite counter-intuitive finding, convincing academic work suggests that specialized experts may in fact be less accurate in their predictions of developments within their field than non-experts; the more focused the predictor, the less accurate the prediction. One reason this may be the case is that we humans become wedded to our areas of focus. We effectively acquire hammers…and not surprisingly, then find nails everywhere we look.

????The history of predictions made by experts is littered with failures. Let’s consider the market for computers and predictions made about them by leading specialists within the computer industry. Thomas Watson, the esteemed chairman of IBM IBM -0.72% , proclaimed in 1943 that he believed there to be “a world market for maybe five computers.” Later in 1977, the president, chairman, and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation Ken Olsen stated, “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”

????Today, the worldwide market for computers and tablets exceeds several hundred million units per year. Watson and Olsen were true pioneers and believed by many to be industry-leading experts and visionaries, but their predictions were way off the mark.

????Experts in communications have not proven any more accurate. Consider that McKinsey’s experts in market sizing projected for AT&T T 1.06% in 1980 that the worldwide market for mobile phones would fail to exceed 1 million subscribers by the year 2000. The actual number proved to be well north of 100 million subscribers. Consider also when tech specialist and then Microsoft MSFT 0.74% CEO Steve Ballmerbluntly made his prediction for the Apple iPhone in 2007: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” As it turns out, the device had an approximately 41% market share in April this year, according to market research firm comScore. I’ll leave it you to decide if that share is significant.