????電視上的魔術(shù)師，其實(shí)都是誤導(dǎo)藝術(shù)方面的大師。我們從他們身上能夠?qū)W到什么？

????撰寫《觀察的力量》這本書時(shí)，我發(fā)現(xiàn)我們之所以無法觀察到有用的信息，并非因?yàn)槲覀兲幵谡婵窄h(huán)境中，而是受到周圍那些不希望我們注意到某些特定信息的人的慫恿。這些人包括談判對(duì)手、廣告商、營銷商和政客。而最擅長誤導(dǎo)我們注意力的，自然是魔術(shù)師。

????去年一月份，我在哈佛大學(xué)教授關(guān)于注意力集中的課程，課程為期一周。我邀請(qǐng)了鄺大衛(wèi)，一位很有才華的年輕魔術(shù)師表演他的魔術(shù)，然后我讓全班同學(xué)思考，他為什么能如此成功地阻止我們覺察到他的秘密。從魔術(shù)師身上，我們可以看到其他人如何通過注意力分散等技能，阻止我們發(fā)現(xiàn)他們的花招。

????你提到了1892年出版的阿瑟?柯南道爾小說《銀色馬》（Silver Blaze）。夏洛克?福爾摩斯因?yàn)樽⒁獾揭环N沒有發(fā)生的情況——狗沒有叫，而破解了一宗謀殺案。我們?nèi)绾握业健盁o聲的證據(jù)”？我們?yōu)槭裁磻?yīng)該分析未發(fā)生的事情？

????我曾經(jīng)是一位不錯(cuò)的橋牌選手，但我后來放棄了橋牌，選擇追求我的學(xué)術(shù)事業(yè)。好的橋牌選手會(huì)根據(jù)其他選手的出牌進(jìn)行推理。但更優(yōu)秀的橋牌選手卻會(huì)根據(jù)其他選手沒出的牌進(jìn)行推理。同樣，對(duì)于那些預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)發(fā)生但并未發(fā)生的事情，公司高管和外交官都應(yīng)該時(shí)刻保持警惕。我們應(yīng)該考慮為什么這些事情沒有發(fā)生，并從中收集深刻的見解。

????許多時(shí)候，出問題的是環(huán)境而不是人。請(qǐng)?jiān)斒鲆幌?，我們?nèi)绾卫眠x擇架構(gòu)和源自行為科學(xué)的其他見解，來設(shè)計(jì)組織結(jié)構(gòu)，從而讓員工將注意力放在更有價(jià)值的地方？

????我們的組織結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和政府推出的激勵(lì)措施，通常并不鼓勵(lì)我們仔細(xì)觀察。以審計(jì)職業(yè)為例。之所以存在審計(jì)這個(gè)職業(yè)，是因?yàn)樗兄Z保持獨(dú)立性。如果沒有獨(dú)立性，外部審計(jì)師就成了公司內(nèi)部審計(jì)師的累贅，也就失去了存在的理由。我的同事曾與我合作寫過一篇文章，其中提到，我們的社會(huì)縱容審計(jì)師事務(wù)所減少保持獨(dú)立性的傾向，進(jìn)而減少了他們?cè)诳蛻舻呢?cái)務(wù)賬簿中發(fā)現(xiàn)問題的可能性。為什么？因?yàn)閷徲?jì)師事務(wù)所希望被二次雇傭。他們希望出售咨詢服務(wù)。而且，審計(jì)師通常希望能在客戶公司內(nèi)部找到一份工作。種種因素綜合在一起，就很容易大幅減少審計(jì)師從客戶賬簿中發(fā)現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重問題的可能性。

????在書的末尾，你寫到與曼徹斯特一位出租車司機(jī)的偶遇，令你深受啟發(fā)。跟我們講講那次偶遇吧。我們?nèi)绾瓮ㄟ^你的書，成為更好的“觀察者”？

????我自己也不是好的觀察者，這一點(diǎn)經(jīng)常讓我失望，正因?yàn)槿绱?，我才?duì)這次有趣的經(jīng)歷感到自豪。數(shù)年前，我與妻子瑪拉和兩個(gè)朋友抵達(dá)英國曼徹斯特機(jī)場(chǎng)。我們計(jì)劃乘出租車到當(dāng)?shù)鼗疖囌?，然后乘火車前往曼徹斯特以?00英里的倫敦。我們已經(jīng)買好了火車票。我們來到出租車站的時(shí)候，一群出租車司機(jī)正圍坐在一起聊天。他們彼此似乎都很熟悉。領(lǐng)頭的出租車司機(jī)告訴我們，鐵路工人正在罷工，他愿意以300英鎊（當(dāng)時(shí)約合600美元）的價(jià)格將我們四個(gè)人送到倫敦。

????其他人都相信了那位司機(jī)的話，并且準(zhǔn)備接受他的條件。但我卻有些懷疑。我對(duì)瑪拉說：“先不要讓他裝行李?！蔽遗艿綑C(jī)場(chǎng)咨詢臺(tái)，詢問是否有鐵路工人罷工?；鹚仝s回出租車站之后，我把瑪拉和兩個(gè)朋友拉到一旁，告訴他們沒有罷工：司機(jī)在說謊。

????《觀察的力量》就是告訴大家如何發(fā)現(xiàn)這樣的暗示：出租車司機(jī)們一邊輕聲聊天，一邊看著我們；我所需要的信息就在100英尺之外的機(jī)場(chǎng)內(nèi)；出租車司機(jī)的動(dòng)機(jī)（以更高的費(fèi)用送我們?nèi)惗兀┓浅?qiáng)烈。我們經(jīng)常會(huì)遇到這樣的暗示。而關(guān)鍵在于行動(dòng)起來。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????Magicians, the kind you see on TV, are masters of the art of misdirection. What can we learn from them?

????In working on the Power of Noticing, I noticed that our failure to notice does not occur in a vacuum, but is encouraged by those around us who do not want us to notice certain information. This includes negotiators, advertisers, marketers, and politicians. Of course, the people who are best at misdirecting our attention are magicians.

????So, last January, when I taught an intensive one-week course on noticing at Harvard, I brought in David Kwong, a brilliant young magician, to perform his magic, and then reflected with the class on how he is so effective at keeping us from noticing his secrets. From magicians, we can see how others might prevent us from noticing their tricks through skills like distraction.

????You mention an Arthur Conan Doyle story, Silver Blaze, originally published in 1892. Sherlock Holmes solves a murder case by noticing what didn’t happen—a dog that didn’t bark. How can we spot “silent evidence” and why should we analyze what didn’t happen?

????I used to be a very good tournament bridge player, but I gave up cards to pursue my academic career. Good card players make inferences based on what other players do. Great card players make inferences based on what other players do not do. Similarly, executives and diplomats should always be on the alert for events that were expected, but didn’t occur. We can glean insights by thinking about why those actions never occurred.

????Many times the problem is the environment and not the individual. Elaborate on how we can design organizations using choice architecture and other insight from behavioral science to improve what employees will pay attention to.

????So often, our organizations, our industry structure, and the incentives created by government do not encourage us to notice. Consider the auditing profession. The profession exists because it promises independence. Without independence, outside auditors would become redundant with a company’s inside auditors and have no reason to exist. Yet my colleagues and I have documented that our society allowed auditing firms to develop in a manner that decreased their propensity to be independent, and therefore lessened their likelihood of noticing problems in the financial books of their clients. Why? Because auditing firms want to be rehired. They want to sell their consulting services. And, often, auditors are looking for jobs with client firms. When you add it up, we have created conditions that dramatically reduce the likelihood of auditors noticing when their clients’ books have serious problems.

????Near the end of the book you write about a savvy encounter you had with a taxi driver in Manchester. Tell us about this encounter and how we can use your book to become better “noticers.”

????I’ve often been disappointed by my own failure to notice, which is why I’m proud of this anecdote. A number of years ago, I arrived at England’s Manchester airport with Marla, my spouse, and two of our friends. We were planning to take a taxi to the local train station, and then the train to London, which is about 200 miles north of Manchester. We already had our train tickets. As we approached the taxi stand, a group of drivers are sitting around chatting. They appeared to know each other quite well. The driver of the lead taxi informed us that the trains were on strike, but that he was willing to take all four of us to London for 300 pounds (about $600 at that time).

????My companions believed what the driver told us and were ready to accept the offer. I was more suspicious. I said to Marla, “Don’t let him load the luggage yet.” I ran into the airport, up to the information booth, and quickly asked whether there was a train strike. Dashing back to the taxi stand, I pulled Marla and our friends aside with the news that there was no strike: the driver’s claim was a scam.

????The Power of Noticing is about seeing such hints: The drivers talking quietly to each other while watching us. The fact that the information I needed was only 100 feet away, inside the airport. And the fact that the taxi driver’s incentives—to get an expensive fare to London—was quite strong. We often have such hints. The key is to also act on them.