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做出重大商業(yè)決策的5個要訣

做出重大商業(yè)決策的5個要訣

Jeff Boss, Entrepreneur.com 2015年03月16日

由于擔(dān)心“犯錯”,許多領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者不敢做出艱難的決定,他們認(rèn)為一旦做出決策,它就不可逆轉(zhuǎn),搞不好會讓自己失去工作。這種想法大錯特錯。處理下一個兩難境地時,對照本文闡述的五項指標(biāo),或許會讓你對自己的決策更有信心。

????本文為與《創(chuàng)業(yè)者》雜志的合作內(nèi)容。下文最初發(fā)表于Entrepreneur.com。

????任何崗位的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者都必須像激光那樣聚焦,充分認(rèn)識問題,并且愿意在面臨不確定性時“撥動指針”。在某些情況下,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者必須在瞬間做出一項可能影響深遠(yuǎn)的決定。

????但問題在于,并非每一位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者都愿意做出這樣的決定,因為他們擔(dān)心自己的決定被視為“錯誤”。他們認(rèn)為,一旦做出某項決定,它就不可逆轉(zhuǎn),無休無止。未來不可能再進(jìn)行調(diào)整,或者更糟糕的是,他們會因為自己的一時決斷而被公司解雇。

????這種想法有錯嗎?大錯特錯。做出下一個重要決策時,你應(yīng)該對照以下五項標(biāo)準(zhǔn):

????1. 決策的目的

????軍隊中一直存在嚴(yán)格的工作優(yōu)先順序,所有決策均以此為基礎(chǔ)。任務(wù)始終排在第一位,之后是符合團(tuán)隊利益的決定,最后才是與個人利益有關(guān)的決定。個人要放在最后,是因為在組織鏈中,個人永遠(yuǎn)是最小的環(huán)節(jié)。利己主義沒有太大意義,在團(tuán)隊或組織中不應(yīng)該考慮個人得失。

????2. 錯誤絕非永恒不變

????用“絕非”這個詞或許有些過頭,但你應(yīng)該能明白我的意思。我之前曾說過,失敗只是取決于你何時選擇停止,同樣也取決于人們?nèi)绾慰创唧w問題。例如,在某個級別的人看來有些棘手的問題,在另一個級別的人眼中卻未必是亟需解決的問題。盡可能收集更多觀點,更加深入地理解具體情況。

????3. 執(zhí)行的時間線

????內(nèi)部和外部影響,會決定在給定的時間線內(nèi)執(zhí)行決策的可行性。內(nèi)部影響是指你和團(tuán)隊在給定的時間內(nèi)執(zhí)行決策的能力,外部影響則是指影響最終期限的推動力,并且這些因素超出了你的控制范圍,例如天氣、經(jīng)濟(jì)或市場需求等。

????你要問自己兩個問題。第一個問題是,“現(xiàn)在是做出決定的正確時機(jī)嗎?”如果答案是肯定的,再問第二個問題:“我能執(zhí)行這項決策嗎?”如果答案是否定的,要搞清“為什么?”

????4. 已知的未知和未知的未知

????執(zhí)行決策時,你會面臨許多限制。

????“已知的未知”是指你意識到一些無形限制的存在,但你無法進(jìn)行具體量化,例如交通(如果你住在洛杉磯,你肯定知道我在說什么)。例如,你清楚洛杉磯的交通高峰時間從來都沒有結(jié)束的時候,所以,你從A點到B點需要花的時間可能在20分鐘到2個小時之間。關(guān)鍵在于,你清楚不確定性的存在,卻不清楚這種不確定性的具體程度。

????根據(jù)墨菲定律,“未知的未知”就是你根本沒有計劃到的意外事件,比如(繼續(xù)以交通為例)交通事故或發(fā)動機(jī)故障。

????盡量明確所有限制因素,這樣你就知道如何讓它們有利于實現(xiàn)決策目的。

????5. 資源的可用性

????如果你最初沒能成功,要不斷嘗試。每一次努力的結(jié)果很大程度上取決你執(zhí)行計劃所使用的資源,所以不僅要確定可用的主要資源,還要確定次要資源。每一項決策都應(yīng)該制定一項應(yīng)對 “未知的未知”和主要行動方案失敗等情形的應(yīng)急方案。

????如果準(zhǔn)備不充分,你會被決策過程擊垮。處理下一個兩難境地時,考慮一下本文提及的幾項指標(biāo),或許會讓你對自己的決策更有信心。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????審校:任文科

????This post is in partnership with Entrepreneur. The article below was originally published atEntrepreneur.com.

????Leadership in any capacity requires a laser-like focus, complete awareness of the problem set, and a willingness to “move the needle” when faced with uncertainty. Leaders must, at any point, be willing to make a split-second decision with potentially long-lasting and profound impacts.

????The challenge, though, is that not every leader is willing to make such decisions for fear of it being considered “wrong.” They think that once a decision is made it is interminable and irreversible, and that adapting down the road isn’t an option or, even worse, they’ll be fired for being decisive.

????What’s wrong with this notion? Plenty. Here are five criteria to consider when making your next big decision:

????1. The purpose of the decision

????In the military, there was (and still is) a pecking order of priority upon which decisions are based. The mission always came first, followed by what would serve the team, and finally, what would serve the individual. The individual always comes last because he or she was always the smallest link in the organizational chain. Playing to self-interest serves little purpose, and that’s not what a team or an organization is about.

????2. Wrong is never permanent

????Well, “never” is a strong word, but you get the idea. I’ve said before thatfailure is only determined by where you choose to stop, and it also depends on how that particular problem is perceived. The higher one ascends within an organization . For example, the same problem that appears tricky at one level may not necessarily be the right one to solve for at another. Seek as many viewpoints as you can to enhance your understanding of the situation.

????3. Timeline to execution

????There are internal and external influences that shape the feasibility of execution along a given timeline. Internal influences refer to the competency of you and your team to execute the decision in the time allotted, whereas external influences signify the driving forces that impact the deadline that you have no control over, such as weather, the economy or market demand.

????You want to ask yourself two questions. First, “Is now the right time to decide?” If the answer is yes, then your next question is, “Am I capable of executing the decision?” If the answer is no then ask “why?”

????4. Known unknowns and unknown unknowns

????These are the constraints surrounding the execution of your decisions.

????A known unknown is when you realize a specific intangible exists but can’t quantify how much, such as traffic (if you live in Los Angeles you know exactly what I’m talking about). For instance, you’re aware that rush hour in LA never really has an end point, so it could take you anwhere from 20 minutes to two hours to travel from A to B. The point is, you know that uncertainty exists but don’t know how much.

????Unknown unknowns are when Murphy likes to throw another wrench in the mix that you simply can’t plan for, such as (continuing with the traffic example) a vehicle accident or engine breakdown.

????Try to identify all constraints as best you can so you know how to align them towards the purpose of your decision.

????5. Resource accessibility

????If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again. The result of any effort will depend in part on the resources used to execute it, so be sure to identify not only the primary resources available but also secondary ones, too. Every decision should have a contingency plan for when those unknown unknowns arise and deem your primary course of action obsolete.

????Decision-making can paralyze you if you’re not prepared. Tackle your next major dilemma using the aforementioned considerations and feel better about the decisions you come to.

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