億萬(wàn)富翁投資者沃倫?巴菲特今年發(fā)布的年度致股東信備受關(guān)注。他在信中提出了一個(gè)關(guān)乎美國(guó)未來(lái)的重要論斷：不要看衰美國(guó)的創(chuàng)新能力。

巴菲特寫道：“過(guò)去240年來(lái)，看衰美國(guó)從來(lái)都是一個(gè)可怕的錯(cuò)誤，現(xiàn)在仍然是。商業(yè)和創(chuàng)新的金鵝將繼續(xù)為美國(guó)產(chǎn)下更多、更大的金蛋。”

不用說(shuō)，巴菲特當(dāng)然指的是某幾個(gè)行業(yè)。不過(guò)，我認(rèn)為有幾個(gè)領(lǐng)域尤其值得注意，例如美國(guó)的現(xiàn)代能源基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。它足以成為全球的典范，問(wèn)題是，那些最聰明的頭腦正在錯(cuò)過(guò)這次創(chuàng)新浪潮。

有時(shí)候，技術(shù)和產(chǎn)業(yè)的重大變革聲勢(shì)浩大。而另一些變革在掀起浪潮前，只有些許漣漪，即便是在最靠近的湖面上，人們也感覺(jué)不到他們的船只正在震動(dòng)。

在20世紀(jì)80年代，麥肯錫咨詢公司曾經(jīng)預(yù)測(cè)稱，到2000年，全球的手機(jī)銷售量將不足100萬(wàn)部，因?yàn)樗鼈兲F了，電池也太沉重，無(wú)法得到廣泛使用。這導(dǎo)致AT&T公司沒(méi)有在這一行業(yè)投資。聽起來(lái)是不是很熟悉？

最近出現(xiàn)的三大“漣漪”讓我們有機(jī)會(huì)窺探，美國(guó)將如何為家庭和企業(yè)提供不竭的動(dòng)力。

首先，作為美國(guó)的創(chuàng)新中心和最大的太陽(yáng)能市場(chǎng)，加利福尼亞取消了“凈電量結(jié)算上限”政策(net metering cap)，不再限制家庭和公司通過(guò)屋頂太陽(yáng)能板向電網(wǎng)輸入的饋電量。此舉解除了限制加州太陽(yáng)能飛速發(fā)展的最后一個(gè)瓶頸，也確定了凈電量結(jié)算在現(xiàn)代基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施中的重要地位，因?yàn)樗軌驇?lái)能源的雙向流動(dòng)。如今，紐約、科羅拉多和南卡羅萊納等其他41個(gè)州，也開始使用凈計(jì)量結(jié)算政策推動(dòng)能源基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施走向現(xiàn)代化。

第二，國(guó)會(huì)擴(kuò)大了太陽(yáng)能投資稅的減免范圍，借此在全國(guó)推廣太陽(yáng)能的使用。如今在美國(guó)的20個(gè)州，屋頂太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電成本已經(jīng)低于或等于電網(wǎng)用電。而在5年內(nèi)，幾乎所有的州都可以實(shí)現(xiàn)這一點(diǎn)。過(guò)去60年中，政府給化石燃料和核能的補(bǔ)貼比風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能獲得的補(bǔ)貼高出8倍。盡管競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境如此不平等，太陽(yáng)能的成本依然在迅速降低。

第三，各國(guó)政府在巴黎達(dá)成了一項(xiàng)歷史性的氣候協(xié)議，該協(xié)議將在接下來(lái)幾十年中逐步淘汰化石燃料，并增加對(duì)替代技術(shù)的需求。

太陽(yáng)能的崛起不會(huì)令人意外。一些將權(quán)力賦予消費(fèi)者的創(chuàng)新商業(yè)模式已經(jīng)顛覆了規(guī)模巨大的行業(yè)，比如手機(jī)和出租車行業(yè)。

按需拼車應(yīng)用為那些迫切希望以實(shí)惠價(jià)格打車的消費(fèi)者帶來(lái)了新的技術(shù)，并借此顛覆了全球的出租車行業(yè)。隨著運(yùn)營(yíng)商以創(chuàng)新方式削減了消費(fèi)者的成本，手機(jī)的使用量呈現(xiàn)指數(shù)級(jí)增長(zhǎng)——這個(gè)速率要比麥肯錫預(yù)測(cè)的快得多。

消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)買決定告訴我們，哪些創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品會(huì)取得成功。他們迅速投向拼車平臺(tái)的懷抱，也已成為一種不可避免的趨勢(shì)。2013年，優(yōu)步平均每周提供100萬(wàn)次打車服務(wù)，而如今，優(yōu)步平均每天提供200萬(wàn)次打車服務(wù)。盡管遭到一些地區(qū)出租車行業(yè)的堅(jiān)決抵制，這一變革依舊發(fā)生了。類似的，消費(fèi)者的巨大需求也在推動(dòng)手機(jī)持有率不斷飆升。如今，每100個(gè)美國(guó)人就有103部手機(jī)——這一比例遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)固定電話的使用率，甚至超過(guò)了后者的歷史最高點(diǎn)。而到2016年年中，美國(guó)的屋頂太陽(yáng)能板也將覆蓋100萬(wàn)個(gè)家庭。

所以，不要輕易忽視那些有志于顛覆成熟行業(yè)的新技術(shù)——以消費(fèi)者為中心的美國(guó)創(chuàng)新最終將大獲全勝。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文作者林恩?朱里奇是Sunrun的首席執(zhí)行官和共同創(chuàng)始人。

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

審校：任文科

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders recently gained a lot of attention when he pointed out one very important point about the future of America: don’t bet against U.S. innovation.

“For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start. America’s golden goose of commerce and innovation will continue to lay more and larger eggs,” Buffet commented.

Needless to say, Buffett is referring to several industries, but a few that I think deserves special attention include America’s modern energy infrastructure. It can be a model for the world; the problem is the smartest minds are missing this innovation wave.

Monumental shifts in technology and industry sometimes start with a bang. Other changes start with a ripple before growing into a wave. Even those who are closest to the surface sometimes don’t feel their boat rocking.

In the 1980’s, McKinsey & Company consultants predicted that there would be fewer than 1 million cell phones sold by 2000, stating they were too expensive and the batteries were too heavy for mainstream adoption. This kept AT&T from investing in this industry. Sound familiar?

We’ve recently seen three major ripples signaling the future of how America will power its homes and businesses.

First, in America’s innovation heartland and its largest solar market, California discarded its cap (i.e. removed the “net metering cap”) on how many households and businesses can plug into the electric grid with rooftop solar. This eliminated the last bottleneck to explosive solar growth in California. It also affirmed that net metering is a key component of a modern infrastructure through its ability to moderate a two-way flow of energy. Today, 41 other states, such as New York, Colorado and South Carolina, use net metering to modernize energy infrastructure.

Second, Congress extended the solar investment tax credit to enable solar to spread nationwide. Today, rooftop solar electricity costs the same or less than grid power in 20 states. In five years’ time, this will be true in nearly all states. Solar costs continue to come down rapidly despite competing on an unleveled playing field. Fossil fuels and nuclear power have received eight times more government subsidies than wind and solar over the past six decades.

Third, governments worldwide forged an historic climate agreement in Paris that will drive the global phase-out of fossil fuel generation over decades — and increase the demand for the technologies that can replace it.

The rise of solar shouldn’t be a surprise. Innovative business models that put power in the hands of consumers have upended huge industries—just look at mobile phones and taxis.

On-demand ride-sharing apps have rocked the established taxi industry worldwide by bringing new technology to consumers that are eager for accessible, affordable alternatives. Cell phone adoption grew exponentially as carriers innovated ways to bring costs down for consumers — at a rate much faster than even McKinsey could predict.

Purchasing decisions tell us which innovative products will succeed. Consumers’ rapid switch to ride-sharing platforms cemented the inevitability of the industry. In 2013, Uber averaged around 1 million rides per week; today, it averages 2 million rides per day. This shift took place amid staunch resistance from taxi incumbents in certain geographies. Similarly, cell phone ownership rates skyrocketed with intense consumer demand. Today, there 103 cell subscriptions for every 100 Americans — a rate far eclipsing the use of landlines, even at its height. With rooftop solar, the U.S. will cross one million homes in the first half of 2016.

So think twice before ignoring a new technology that’s poised to shake a powerful, established industry—American innovation that’s consumer-centric will win the day.

Lynn Jurich is CEO and co-founder of Sunrun.