卡舒吉被虐殺后，沙特將陷入長期分歧
Vivienne Walt
2018-10-24
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隨著沙特記者賈馬爾·卡舒吉可能慘遭謀殺一事曝光，似乎很難相信就在一年前，沙特首都利雅得還對未來充滿憧憬。 當時一家西式酒店26歲的女接待員告訴我，王儲穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼（以下簡稱穆罕默德）允許女性從事與男性客戶接觸的工作，她很激動。“我想過離開國家，但現(xiàn)在沒必要了。”她說。沙特設計周開幕時有數(shù)百名嘻哈青年參加，有些人急切地告訴我穆罕默德領導下的沙特不斷變化，讓人十分興奮，而且不停談論幾周前自發(fā)舉行的街頭派對?！扒闆r在徹底變化?！?7歲的內利·阿塔爾滔滔不絕地說，她是健身教練，長長卷曲的頭發(fā)卷自然垂下，沒有戴伊斯蘭教規(guī)定的頭巾。政府終于向女性發(fā)放健身執(zhí)照，她剛拿到就在首都利雅得開設了一家女子健身房。 現(xiàn)在情況又發(fā)生了變化，但這次可能滑向了糟糕的一面。 細節(jié)不斷涌現(xiàn)，人們開始知道沙特人在伊斯坦布爾領事館內如何折磨卡舒吉，甚至肢解了尸體，此事對沙特最親密盟友美國的影響十分深遠。近幾周特朗普都拒絕批評默罕默德，但上周四他告訴《紐約時報》，沙特阿拉伯要承擔“非常嚴重的”后果。 外界嚴重反應的影響可能會逐漸蔓延，并持續(xù)很長時間，尤其是對王儲。剛滿33歲的王儲穆罕默德在過去一年里執(zhí)掌沙特，準備接替病重的父親，也是沙特國王薩勒曼，明年即將登上王位。 現(xiàn)在一切似乎存疑，而且可能推翻美國的政策。特朗普計劃放棄2015年伊朗核協(xié)議的同時也在實施另一項更嚴厲的制裁，11月4日將禁止歐佩克的第四大原油生產國伊朗向全球市場出口石油。美國這么做是因為沙特可以額外出口石油，補上伊朗的缺口，從而避免全球市場上石油價格飆升。 盡管如此，王儲似乎完全不關心白宮的譴責。 自從10月2日卡舒吉消失以來，王儲私下打的算盤是可以歪曲事實且不負后果。報道稱卡舒吉在沙特駐伊斯坦布爾的土耳其領事館里遭屠殺三天后，王儲在利雅得告訴彭博社，卡舒吉“進入領事館后幾分鐘或一小時后便已離開”，但他肯定知道事實真相并非如此。 然而，逃避謀殺罪名可能比讓人原諒說謊難多了。首先，美國政界拼命鼓吹穆罕默德是年輕具有開創(chuàng)精神的改革派，一直努力在嚴守瓦哈比伊斯蘭教的沙特引入自由主義。 如今，當初鼓吹穆罕默德的政客看起來要為一系列事件買單，他們支持王儲的改革計劃，又稱為2030年愿景，卻忽略了其統(tǒng)治無情的一面。舉些例子：沙特使用從美國買的武器和飛機，還有美國援助，對也門的胡塞叛亂分子進行殘酷轟炸。據(jù)聯(lián)合國估計，該次襲擊造成大約16,000名平民死亡，并造成大范圍的饑荒和霍亂。去年，王儲還對鄰國對手卡塔爾實施封鎖，美國在卡塔爾擁有龐大的軍事基地。國內方面則監(jiān)禁了不少活動家和批評者。 卡舒吉在《華盛頓郵報》的專欄里詳細介紹了上述種種行為，而在另一邊，美國官員仍然把王儲當成改革中東的關鍵。 要相信穆罕默德不知道卡舒吉的噩運實在太難，雖然沙特最初聲稱（其實就是辯解），卡舒吉的死是因為抓人或審訊沒做好，而不是預謀的謀殺?！安灰耆栉业闹巧?，也不要藐視我的支持?！鄙现芏埠忘h參議員林賽·格雷厄姆對福克斯電視臺節(jié)目Fox & Friends表示，他稱穆罕默德“讓人傷心失望”。“我向來支持沙特，因為他們是戰(zhàn)略盟友?！备窭锥蚰氛f。他補充道，“現(xiàn)在我感覺被利用了?！?/p> 對于美國許多家公司的首席執(zhí)行官和西方金融官員來說也是一樣，很多人原本打算飛往利雅得參加上周二開始的“未來投資計劃”，該論壇由沙特主權財富基金組織，號稱“沙漠中的達沃斯”，舉辦地點在利雅得的麗思卡爾頓酒店。諷刺的是，去年穆罕默德曾在該酒店軟禁多位沙特公司高層。大多數(shù)高層連罪名也沒有便被抓，有些軟禁達數(shù)月，很多人上交部分財產給沙特官方后才被釋放。論壇網(wǎng)站上向企業(yè)領導人承諾繪制“22世紀的藍圖”，仿佛不比當下這個混亂的世紀就行。論壇期間有“全球領導人交流、私人會議、主題圓桌，世界級娛樂，與頂尖首席執(zhí)行官交流，而且可享受全球媒體曝光?！?/p> 現(xiàn)在看起來，穆罕默德承諾打造全新國家實在過于夸張。 上周四，美國財政部長史蒂文·姆努辛最終決定放棄去利雅得參會，道指也應聲下挫327點。此前法國和荷蘭財長、國際貨幣基金組織總裁拉加德、還有眾多商業(yè)領袖，包括摩根大通首席執(zhí)行官杰米·戴蒙和黑石集團的斯蒂芬·施瓦茲曼，以及渣打銀行和瑞信首席執(zhí)行官紛紛取消行程。盡管沙特阿拉伯對Uber投資達35億美元，但Uber首席執(zhí)行官達拉·科斯羅薩西也決定放棄前去參會。 最可悲的是，一位沙特記者為挑戰(zhàn)穆罕默德付出了生命的代價，而且這起謀殺案的細節(jié)堪稱毛骨悚然，讓全世界反胃。而且，卡舒吉的死亡還可能導致極具破壞性的后果。 穆罕默德希望國家穩(wěn)定，急需2030年愿景。盡管沙特擁有龐大的石油財富，但隨著全球石油價格下滑，近年來沙特經濟舉步維艱。最近國際貨幣基金組織估計，油價達到每桶85美元左右，沙特才能平衡預算（不過該數(shù)字沒有考慮沙特的現(xiàn)金儲備）。然而最近油價遠未達到85美元。 還有比赤字更糟糕的事，即數(shù)百萬沮喪的青年進入勞動力市場卻找不到什么工作，這也是2011年導致阿拉伯之春事件的因素之一。據(jù)世界銀行統(tǒng)計，沙特人口達3300萬人，約一半在25歲以下，其中四分之一的人失業(yè)。創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機會迫在眉睫。 為推動經濟轉型，從完全依賴石油美元到實現(xiàn)經濟多元化，2016年穆罕默德公布了2030年愿景，承諾將機場、鐵路和公共服務私有化，規(guī)范企業(yè)，還允許女性進入勞動力市場（因此今年他決定允許女性開車）。一些美國巨頭紛紛抓住機遇，柏克德在建設利雅得地鐵，高盛則負責監(jiān)督利雅得機場的部分私有化。 如果沙特公認的領導人不夠穩(wěn)定，還有多少美國公司愿意去做生意？“整個改革計劃都需要外國直接投資，然而數(shù)月來資金一直在流出沙特，卻沒有流入。”《紐約時報》專欄作家托馬斯·弗里德曼在上周四寫道，他長期觀察沙特（以前曾是穆罕默德的粉絲）?！艾F(xiàn)在情況只會更糟?！?/p> 此外，2030年愿景能否實現(xiàn)，很大程度上依賴目前全球最大的石油公司沙特阿美公司約10%資產的上市計劃。經濟學家估計本次上市將為沙特國庫帶來1億美元的資金?！敖洕鄻踊媱澣Q于IPO能否成功?！?去年10月巴黎國際能源署的沙特專家凱特·杜阿里從利雅得回來后告訴我，如果上市不成功，2030年愿景將會受到嚴重影響。 現(xiàn)在，上市計劃已無限推遲，因為這家原本不透明的石油公司要將財務報表公開。一些能源分析師甚至質疑沙特的石油儲量，多年來石油儲量一直保持平穩(wěn)，每年約為2600億桶。 “對股東總是要保持透明，我們有一個股東。” 沙特阿美的首席執(zhí)行官阿敏·納薩爾告訴我說，不過他指的股東是沙特國王薩勒曼，去年10月，我在位于達蘭的沙特阿美公司總部為《財富》雜志采訪了他?！爸灰艹晒ι鲜?，我們會非常樂意分享所有數(shù)據(jù)。”但卡舒吉10月2日失蹤和死亡以來，全世界發(fā)現(xiàn)想從沙特獲得真實信息可能并不容易。（財富中文網(wǎng)） 譯者：Charlie 審校：夏林 |
It seems hard to believe in the wake of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s probable horrific murder, but only a year ago, the mood in Riyadh was virtually electric. At that time, a 26-year-old woman receptionist at a Western hotel told me she was thrilled that the Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, or MBS, had allowed women to accept jobs involving interacting with male clients. “I thought of leaving the country, but now there is no need,” she said. Some of the hundreds of hip youth packing the opening of the Saudi Design Week rushed to tell me how excited they were about their changing prospects under MBS, and could barely stop talking about the spontaneous street party that had erupted weeks before. “Things are totally changing,” gushed Nelly Attar, a 27-year-old fitness instructor with long, curly hair that flowed free without the required Islamic head covering. She had just opened a women’s gym in the capital after the government finally granted women gym licenses. Now things are about to change again—and perhaps in a very bad way. As the gory details emerge of how Saudi operatives allegedly seized Khashoggi inside the consulate in Istanbul, then dismembered his body before flying out of the country, the implications for Saudi Arabia’s closest ally, the United States, are profound. After weeks in which President Trump balked from criticizing MBS, he told the New York Times on last Thursday that the consequences for Saudi Arabia “have to be very severe.” In reality, the implications of a severe response could spread wide, and last long—not least for the Crown Prince, who at just 33 years old has effectively run Saudi Arabia for the past year and is poised to succeed his father, the ailing King Salman, on the throne as soon as next year. All of that now looks in doubt, potentially upturning U.S. policy. As part of President Trump’s plan to abandon the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, he is imposing another, tougher round of sanctions on November 4—two weeks away—banning the Islamic Republic, OPEC’s fourth biggest producer, from exporting oil on world markets. Baked into the new sanctions has been the assurance that Saudi Arabia will supply additional oil to cover the loss of Iranian crude, in order to avoid soaring prices on world markets. Yet despite that, Crown Prince has appeared totally unconcerned with any opprobrium from the White House. One cold calculation he has made since Khashoggi vanished on October 2 was that he could bend the facts without consequences. Just three days after Khashoggi was reportedly butchered in the Turkish consulate in Istanbul, he told Bloomberg in Riyadh that Khashoggi had “entered and he got out after a few minutes or one hour”—a statement he surely knew was not true. But getting away with murder might be harder than getting away with lies. For one thing, U.S. politicians have staked their credibility on trumpeting MBS as a ground-breaking young reformist, ushering in liberalism in a country that adheres to a severe form of Wahhabi Islam. Now, those politicians look like they might have been suckered into buying a bill of goods—or at least, that they chose to champion the Crown Prince’s reform plan, called Vision 2030, while ignoring more ruthless aspects of his rule. Among them: prosecuting a brutal bombing campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen—fought with weapons and planes purchased from the U.S., and with U.S. assistance—which the U.N. estimates has killed about 16,000 civilians and caused widespread famine and cholera. The Crown Prince also instituted a blockade last year against next-door rival Qatar, where the U.S. has a large military base, and has jailed activists and critics at home. All those alarming actions were eloquently outlined in Khashoggi’s columns in the Washington Post, even while U.S. officials embraced the Crown Prince as the key to overhauling the entire Middle East. But nothing appears more gullible that than believing that MBS had no knowledge of Khashoggi’s impending doom—even if, as the Kingdom originally claimed (in its defense!) his death was a botched abduction or interrogation, rather than premeditated murder. “I will not have my intelligence insulted or my support disrespected,” Republican U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham raged on Fox & Friends on last Tuesday, calling MBS “a wrecking ball.” “I was the leading advocate for Saudi Arabia because they are a strategic ally,” Graham said. Now, he added, “I feel used and abused.” The same might be said for the many U.S. CEOs and Western financial officials who were set to fly to Riyadh for the Future Investment Initiative, which begins on last Tuesday. The so-called “Davos in the Desert” organized by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, is ironically being held in the Ritz Carlton Riyadh, which MBS last year transformed into a luxury prison for Saudi business leaders. Those execs were held mostly without charge, some for months, many of them released only after turning over some of their fortune to the Saudi leadership. The website for next week’s conference promises business leaders a “blueprint for the 22nd century”—never mind the messy century we’re living through—in “conversations with global leaders, private meetings, curated roundtables, world-class entertainment, unparalleled CEO networking, and deep engagement with global media.” That now looks hugely overblown, as does MBS’s promises to create a dramatically new country. On last Thursday U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin finally dropped plans to attend the Riyadh conference, sending the Dow down 327 points. He was one of the final hold-outs after cancellations by French and Dutch finance ministers, IMF chief Christine Lagarde, and numerous business leaders, including CEOs Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan and Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone, and the chief execs of Standard Chartered and Credit Suisse. Even Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi pulled out despite Saudi Arabia’s $3.5 billion investment in his company. Tragically, one Saudi journalist has paid a deadly price for challenging MBS—a murder whose alleged macabre details have nauseated the world. But there might be highly damaging fallout from Khashoggi’s death, too. For the Crown Prince to rule over a stable country, he badly needs Vision 2030 to work. Despite Saudi’s mammoth oil wealth, its economy has faltered in recent years, as global oil prices have slid ever lower. The IMF recently estimated that the country needs oil prices of about $85 a barrel in order to balance its budget (although the figure does not take into account the Kingdom’s cash reserves). Until recently, oil prices were nowhere near that. Worse than deficits, perhaps, is the prospect of millions of frustrated youth hitting the labor market, and finding few jobs—one factor that sparked the Arab Spring revolutions in 2011. Among Saudi Arabia’s 33 million people, about half are under 25, and about one-quarter of them are unemployed, according to the World Bank. Job creation is urgent. In order to diversify the economy from being almost entirely run on petrodollars, MBS unveiled Vision 2030 in 2016, promising to privatize airports, railroads, and public services, regulate businesses, and throw open the labor market to women (hence his decision this year to allow women to drive); some U.S. corporate giants have leaped at the opportunities, with Bechtel building the Riyadh Metro and Goldman Sachs overseeing the partial privatization of Riyadh Airport. How many more U.S. companies will jump on large deals, if Saudi’s putative leader is seen as erratic? “His whole reform program required direct foreign investment—and money has been flowing out of Saudi Arabia for months, not in,” New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, a long Saudi watcher (and formerly MBS fan) wrote on last Thursday. “Now it will get worse.” In addition, Vision 2030 has depended heavily on a flotation of about 10% of Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest oil company by far, originally scheduled for this year. Economists estimated the IPO would bring about $100 million into Saudi coffers. “The economic diversification program hinges on the success of the IPO,” Kate Dourian, a Saudi expert at the International Energy Agency in Paris, told me after I returned from Riyadh last October. Without the IPO, Vision 2030 would badly falter, she said. Now, the IPO has been put off until some unknown date, in part because it would have demanded that the opaque oil company finally open its books to public scrutiny. Some energy analysts even question Saudi Arabia’s stated oil reserves, which have remained level for many years, at about 260 billion barrels. “You always need to be transparent with your shareholders, and we have one shareholder,” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told me, referring to Saudi King Salman, when I interviewed him for Fortune at Aramco HQ in Dhahran last October. “When we go public, we will be more than happy to share all the data, as soon as we are listed.” As the world has learned since Khashoggi’s disappearance and death on October 2, prying information from Saudi Arabia can be difficult. |
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