2020年11月,喬?拜登在一場前無古人的美國總統(tǒng)競選中獲勝后,盡管民主黨在國會的優(yōu)勢沒有像一些人預(yù)期的那么高,但市場仍然應(yīng)聲大漲。
當(dāng)時(shí),預(yù)言家們十分看好“分裂的國會”(即共和黨繼續(xù)控制參議院)帶來的市場前景,因?yàn)閺臍v史上看,在兩院分裂的情況下,股市往往表現(xiàn)最好。LPL Financial的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,國會兩院分裂時(shí),股市平均漲幅超過17%,若民主黨控制國會,股市漲幅通常為近11%。
但在令人驚訝的形勢變化中,民主黨于1月6日成功將佐治亞州的兩個(gè)參議院席位變藍(lán),從而在兩黨均分席位的參議院中占據(jù)優(yōu)勢。此前民主黨已經(jīng)控制了眾議院和白宮,無論優(yōu)勢有多小,市場最終還是迎來了所謂的“藍(lán)色浪潮”。
對于華爾街的觀察人士來說,市場最近的反應(yīng)——沖上歷史新高——可能令人費(fèi)解。“人們似乎對藍(lán)色浪潮有很多擔(dān)憂——說起來我們并沒有完全理解藍(lán)色浪潮。顯然,根據(jù)佐治亞州1月6日的選舉結(jié)果,民主黨掌控了國會兩院和白宮。從理論上講,這應(yīng)該是個(gè)壞消息,但有趣的是……事實(shí)似乎并非如此?!奔涡爬碡?cái)(Charles Schwab)的交易和衍生品副總裁蘭迪?弗雷德里克向《財(cái)富》雜志表示。
“如果你回顧一下歷史,便會發(fā)現(xiàn)市場在全藍(lán)的情況下表現(xiàn)還可以。”弗雷德里克補(bǔ)充說。
當(dāng)民主黨控制白宮和國會兩院時(shí),股市表現(xiàn)如何?
在過去6次中只下跌了一次,總體上看起來沒有任何異常。pic.twitter.com/OIiwSlcwwp
——瑞安?德特里克,CMT(@RyanDetrick),2021年1月6日
事實(shí)上,LPL的瑞安?德特里克指出,在過去六次政府(包括白宮)完全由民主黨控制時(shí),市場只下跌了一次,而市場收益率“總體上看起來(沒有)任何異常”。自20世紀(jì)50年代以來,這種情況下標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)的平均回報(bào)率約為9%。
不過,在2021年的藍(lán)色浪潮里,可能會早早迎來一些股市助推器,也就是更多的刺激措施。
“從好的方面來看,9000億美元的刺激計(jì)劃喚醒了經(jīng)濟(jì),隨著拉斐爾?沃諾克和喬?奧索夫在佐治亞州獲勝,民主黨控制了參議院?!泵绹y行(Bank of America)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在1月7日的一份報(bào)告中寫道:“我們認(rèn)為,可能會通過另外一個(gè)1萬億美元左右的刺激計(jì)劃?!?/p>
此外,美國銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,如果今年2月再通過一個(gè)1萬億美元的刺激計(jì)劃,該行對2021年美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的預(yù)測“很輕松”就能夠再增加一個(gè)基點(diǎn),“讓經(jīng)濟(jì)在2021年的增長達(dá)到6%。”
一定程度上,似乎正是對于刺激計(jì)劃的期待推高了市場。
事實(shí)上,在2021年第一個(gè)完整的交易周,股市已經(jīng)一飛沖天。(舉個(gè)例子,嘉信理財(cái)?shù)母ダ椎吕锟苏J(rèn)為市場“期待一個(gè)沒有那么分裂的政府,[以及]更多的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激,現(xiàn)實(shí)似乎正在朝著這個(gè)方向前進(jìn)?!?盡管由于擁護(hù)特朗普的暴徒在1月6日闖入國會大廈試圖阻止當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)拜登的認(rèn)證,股市當(dāng)天出現(xiàn)波動(dòng),但已經(jīng)觸及歷史高位。1月7日,道指收盤上漲約0.7%,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)上漲近1.5%,兩者均創(chuàng)下歷史新高。
不管誰掌控著國會山,弗雷德里克們認(rèn)為,“保持長期投資是迄今為止最好的投資方式?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Agatha
參議院的查克?舒默和眾議院的南希?佩洛西可能會通過一個(gè)更大方的刺激方案。
2020年11月,喬?拜登在一場前無古人的美國總統(tǒng)競選中獲勝后,盡管民主黨在國會的優(yōu)勢沒有像一些人預(yù)期的那么高,但市場仍然應(yīng)聲大漲。
當(dāng)時(shí),預(yù)言家們十分看好“分裂的國會”(即共和黨繼續(xù)控制參議院)帶來的市場前景,因?yàn)閺臍v史上看,在兩院分裂的情況下,股市往往表現(xiàn)最好。LPL Financial的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,國會兩院分裂時(shí),股市平均漲幅超過17%,若民主黨控制國會,股市漲幅通常為近11%。
但在令人驚訝的形勢變化中,民主黨于1月6日成功將佐治亞州的兩個(gè)參議院席位變藍(lán),從而在兩黨均分席位的參議院中占據(jù)優(yōu)勢。此前民主黨已經(jīng)控制了眾議院和白宮,無論優(yōu)勢有多小,市場最終還是迎來了所謂的“藍(lán)色浪潮”。
對于華爾街的觀察人士來說,市場最近的反應(yīng)——沖上歷史新高——可能令人費(fèi)解?!叭藗兯坪鯇λ{(lán)色浪潮有很多擔(dān)憂——說起來我們并沒有完全理解藍(lán)色浪潮。顯然,根據(jù)佐治亞州1月6日的選舉結(jié)果,民主黨掌控了國會兩院和白宮。從理論上講,這應(yīng)該是個(gè)壞消息,但有趣的是……事實(shí)似乎并非如此?!奔涡爬碡?cái)(Charles Schwab)的交易和衍生品副總裁蘭迪?弗雷德里克向《財(cái)富》雜志表示。
“如果你回顧一下歷史,便會發(fā)現(xiàn)市場在全藍(lán)的情況下表現(xiàn)還可以?!备ダ椎吕锟搜a(bǔ)充說。
當(dāng)民主黨控制白宮和國會兩院時(shí),股市表現(xiàn)如何?
在過去6次中只下跌了一次,總體上看起來沒有任何異常。pic.twitter.com/OIiwSlcwwp
——瑞安?德特里克,CMT(@RyanDetrick),2021年1月6日
事實(shí)上,LPL的瑞安?德特里克指出,在過去六次政府(包括白宮)完全由民主黨控制時(shí),市場只下跌了一次,而市場收益率“總體上看起來(沒有)任何異?!?。自20世紀(jì)50年代以來,這種情況下標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)的平均回報(bào)率約為9%。
不過,在2021年的藍(lán)色浪潮里,可能會早早迎來一些股市助推器,也就是更多的刺激措施。
“從好的方面來看,9000億美元的刺激計(jì)劃喚醒了經(jīng)濟(jì),隨著拉斐爾?沃諾克和喬?奧索夫在佐治亞州獲勝,民主黨控制了參議院?!泵绹y行(Bank of America)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在1月7日的一份報(bào)告中寫道:“我們認(rèn)為,可能會通過另外一個(gè)1萬億美元左右的刺激計(jì)劃。”
此外,美國銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,如果今年2月再通過一個(gè)1萬億美元的刺激計(jì)劃,該行對2021年美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的預(yù)測“很輕松”就能夠再增加一個(gè)基點(diǎn),“讓經(jīng)濟(jì)在2021年的增長達(dá)到6%?!?/p>
一定程度上,似乎正是對于刺激計(jì)劃的期待推高了市場。
事實(shí)上,在2021年第一個(gè)完整的交易周,股市已經(jīng)一飛沖天。(舉個(gè)例子,嘉信理財(cái)?shù)母ダ椎吕锟苏J(rèn)為市場“期待一個(gè)沒有那么分裂的政府,[以及]更多的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激,現(xiàn)實(shí)似乎正在朝著這個(gè)方向前進(jìn)?!?盡管由于擁護(hù)特朗普的暴徒在1月6日闖入國會大廈試圖阻止當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)拜登的認(rèn)證,股市當(dāng)天出現(xiàn)波動(dòng),但已經(jīng)觸及歷史高位。1月7日,道指收盤上漲約0.7%,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)上漲近1.5%,兩者均創(chuàng)下歷史新高。
不管誰掌控著國會山,弗雷德里克們認(rèn)為,“保持長期投資是迄今為止最好的投資方式。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Agatha
In November 2020, markets surged after Joe Biden emerged as the victor in an unprecedented presidential contest—even as Democrats didn’t gain as much ground in Congress as some had anticipated.
Back then, market prognosticators were enthusiastic about the prospect of a split Congress (where Republicans maintained control of the Senate) because, historically, the stock market tends to perform best under a divided government. According to LPL Financial data, stocks were up over 17% on average under a split Congress, while markets typically traded nearly 11% higher under a Democrat-controlled Congress.
But in a surprising turn of events, Democrats managed to turn both Georgia Senate seats blue on January 6—and take control of an equally split Senate. Given the Democrats’ control of the House and White House as well, markets finally got the so-called blue wave scenario, however narrow.
To some Street observers, the market’s recent reaction—hitting all-time highs—might be a head-scratcher. “There seemed to have been a lot of apprehension about the blue wave—and we didn’t quite get the blue wave, if you will. But clearly based on January 6’s results in Georgia, we do have the Democrats controlling all three houses. That, in theory, was supposed to be bad news, but what’s interesting…is that history doesn’t really bear that out,” Randy Frederick, the vice president of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab, tells Fortune.
“If you look at history,” Frederick adds, “the markets have done okay under a full-blue scenario.”
What do stocks do when the Democrats control the Presidency and both chambers of Congress?
Lower only once the past 6 times and overall doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary. pic.twitter.com/OIiwSlcwwp
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) January 6, 2021
Indeed, LPL’s Ryan Detrick points out that markets were only lower once in the past six times the government (including the White House) was wholly controlled by Democrats, and market returns “overall [don’t] look like anything out of the ordinary.” On average, the S&P 500 returned roughly 9% in such scenarios since the 1950s.
Still, this 2021 blue sweep in particular will likely come with a few stock market boosters early on—namely, more stimulus.
“On the upside, the economy has been jolted by $900 [billion] in stimulus, and another round is likely given that the victories of Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in Georgia flipped the Senate to a Democratic majority,” economists at Bank of America wrote in a January 7 report. “We believe another stimulus package could be passed in the ballpark of $1 [trillion].”
What’s more, the BofA economists argue that if there was another $1 trillion stimulus passed in February, it could “easily” add another basis point to the bank’s 2021 GDP estimate, “l(fā)eaving the economy to flirt with 6% growth in 2021.”
And it appears to be those stimulus hopes, in part, that are boosting markets.
Indeed, stocks are already on a tear in the first full trading week of 2021. (Schwab’s Frederick, for one, thinks markets are “l(fā)ooking to a potentially less divisive government [and] more economic stimulus, which seems likely going forward.”) Despite a tumultuous on January 6 that saw a pro-Trump mob descend on the Capitol in a failed attempt to stop the certification of President-elect Biden, stocks touched on all-time highs. And on January7, the Dow closed up roughly 0.7%, while the S&P 500 gained nearly 1.5%, both at all-time highs.
Regardless of who holds power on Capitol Hill, those like Frederick argue, “staying invested for the long haul is by far the best way to go.”