歐洲的機(jī)會(huì)？

????摩根士丹利和高盛都將繼續(xù)保持適當(dāng)?shù)馁Y產(chǎn)負(fù)債表規(guī)模，尋找新的盈利方式。兩家銀行都需要面對導(dǎo)致公司不愿上市、也不愿發(fā)行債券的經(jīng)濟(jì)困境。歐債危機(jī)最終得到解決之前，預(yù)計(jì)市場難以恢復(fù)常態(tài)。

????不過，嚴(yán)重的歐債危機(jī)也可能給高盛和摩根士丹利帶來機(jī)會(huì)。目前歐洲銀行都在被迫提高資本金充足率、出售資產(chǎn)。德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的分析師們預(yù)測，歐洲銀行業(yè)的瘦身行動(dòng)將導(dǎo)致高達(dá)130億美元的市場重新分割。高盛和摩根士丹利憑借其龐大的規(guī)模和全球化覆蓋，有望從相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)中分得一杯羹。

????2012年銀行業(yè)的另一個(gè)有利因素是與華爾街改革法案相關(guān)的監(jiān)管不確定因素有望消除。一些爭議最大的法案，如沃爾克法則（Volcker rules）和針對衍生品的林肯法則（Lincoln rules），年底前很可能明朗化。如果這些規(guī)定從輕實(shí)施，華爾街的利潤可能會(huì)大幅反彈。

????華爾街正處于重建過程中，2011年第四季度反映的是震蕩環(huán)境下壯士斷腕的痛苦。摩根士丹利和高盛當(dāng)前的股價(jià)都低于其內(nèi)在資產(chǎn)價(jià)值，顯然市場有些擔(dān)心它們未來的盈利能力。公司定位的變化和實(shí)現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)型的途徑需要一段很長的時(shí)間才能重建投資者的信心。

An opportunity in Europe?

????Both Morgan and Goldman will continue to right size their balance sheets and attempt to find new ways to make money. Both will need to deal with economic troubles that have companies shying away from going public or issuing debt. A return to some sort of normalcy isn't expected until the European debt situation is finally resolved.

????But while European crisis is damaging, it could present Goldman and Morgan with an opportunity. European banks are being forced to raise their capital requirements and sell off assets. This slimming down of the European banks could see up to $13 billion in revenues up for grabs, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are well-positioned to eat up some of that business given their size and global reach.

????Another bright spot for the banks this year is potential end of the regulatory uncertainty associated with the Wall Street reform bill. Investors will most likely find out by the end of the year how some of the more controversial sections of the bill, like the Volcker rule and Lincoln rules on derivatives, will look. If the rules are implemented with a light touch, Wall Street could possibly see a massive resurgence in profit.

????Wall Street is under construction and this previous quarter reflects all the messiness associated with making tough repairs in a volatile environment. Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are trading below their intrinsic asset values, so there is clearly some nervousness associated with their ability to make money in the future. Deciding what they want to be and how they want to get there will go a long way to restore investor confidence.