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中國(guó)反腐倡廉行動(dòng)抑制奢侈品消費(fèi)

中國(guó)反腐倡廉行動(dòng)抑制奢侈品消費(fèi)

Nin-Hai Tseng 2013-04-23
部分分析人士認(rèn)為,一些奢侈品銷(xiāo)售數(shù)據(jù)弱于預(yù)期,主要是由于消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)放緩。但這種放緩更多的是反映了中國(guó)政府反腐行動(dòng)的影響,而不是中國(guó)消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買(mǎi)力的減弱。正因?yàn)槿绱?,博柏利等奢侈品牌依然把擴(kuò)張的重點(diǎn)放在了中國(guó)等亞太地區(qū)。

????去年很多人都預(yù)測(cè)由中國(guó)推動(dòng)的奢侈品消費(fèi)熱潮將終結(jié),但從英國(guó)奢侈品牌博柏利(Burberry)的最新銷(xiāo)售報(bào)告來(lái)看,中國(guó)的消費(fèi)比我們很多人想象得都更有韌性。

????本月上旬,博柏利公布的銷(xiāo)售額好于預(yù)期,主要得益于中國(guó)內(nèi)地和香港對(duì)這個(gè)奢侈品牌的標(biāo)志性手袋和2,000多美元的雙排扣外套需求旺盛。截至3月31日的三個(gè)月,銷(xiāo)售額增長(zhǎng)了11%至7.72億美元。亞太地區(qū)(特別是中國(guó)內(nèi)地和香港)下半年的同店銷(xiāo)售額增長(zhǎng)居首。

????這么好的數(shù)字從很多方面來(lái)看都非常令人意外:此時(shí)距離上次博柏利公布盈利預(yù)警以及金融危機(jī)以來(lái)最糟的同店銷(xiāo)售額還不到一年。去年9月的這些消息曾導(dǎo)致博柏利股價(jià)一日暴跌21%,并引發(fā)全球奢侈品市場(chǎng)將逐步衰落的擔(dān)憂(yōu),因?yàn)橹袊?guó)一直是全球奢侈品消費(fèi)的主力之一。隨著中國(guó)這個(gè)全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長(zhǎng)放緩,很難想象深陷債務(wù)的歐美消費(fèi)者能夠補(bǔ)上這個(gè)缺口。

????但博柏利的最新銷(xiāo)售報(bào)告顯示,可能并不需要?dú)W美消費(fèi)者操心。最近中國(guó)內(nèi)地的一波新店開(kāi)業(yè)推動(dòng)了亞太地區(qū)的銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng);亞太是博柏利最大、也是增長(zhǎng)最快的地區(qū)。

????沒(méi)錯(cuò),中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)總體已經(jīng)放緩。本月早些時(shí)候,中國(guó)公布今年第一季度GDP增長(zhǎng)7.7%,低于普遍預(yù)期的8%。(奢侈品銷(xiāo)售)數(shù)據(jù)弱于預(yù)期主要是由于消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)放緩。但這更多的是反映了中國(guó)政府反腐行動(dòng)的影響,而不是中國(guó)消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買(mǎi)力的減弱。

????今年早些時(shí)候,中國(guó)國(guó)家主席習(xí)近平發(fā)起了一場(chǎng)反腐倡廉運(yùn)動(dòng),要求政府和國(guó)企官員減少鋪張浪費(fèi),警告稱(chēng),無(wú)度支出可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致執(zhí)政黨下臺(tái)。他還下令禁止公款吃喝、奢侈品賄賂(比如贈(zèng)送LV包)等行為。

????“我們預(yù)計(jì)普通消費(fèi)需求將保持韌性,但高端食品飲料和飯店的銷(xiāo)售情況已經(jīng)受到中國(guó)新一代領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人反腐倡廉運(yùn)動(dòng)的沖擊… ”美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)分析師本月上旬在一份面向客戶(hù)的報(bào)告中寫(xiě)到。

????分析人士預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)政府的反腐運(yùn)動(dòng)將繼續(xù)抑制零售銷(xiāo)售的增長(zhǎng)。本季度,博柏利或許躲過(guò)了銷(xiāo)售額放緩,但反腐運(yùn)動(dòng)必然會(huì)逐漸帶來(lái)影響。路易威登集團(tuán)(LVMH)已經(jīng)感到了壓力。本月上旬,LVMH公布的服裝和皮制品業(yè)務(wù)收入增幅為三年多來(lái)最低,帶動(dòng)奢侈品板塊股票整體下挫。導(dǎo)致LVMH收入增長(zhǎng)放緩的是日本旅游業(yè)滑坡以及中國(guó)門(mén)店客流量下降。

????Plenty of people were expecting an end to the China-led luxury boom last year, but as Burberry's latest sales report suggests, China's consumers are more resilient than many of us think.

????On Wednesday, the British fashion house reported better-than-expected sales, thanks largely to strong demand in China and Hong Kong for handbags and the $2,000-plus trench coats the luxury brand is famous for. Sales rose 11% to $772 million in the three months ended March 31. The Asia-Pacific region, particularly China and Hong Kong, led same-store sales growth during the second half of the year.

????The strong numbers are surprising in a few big ways: It was less than a year ago that Burberry (BURBY) issued a surprise profit warning and reported its worst same-store sales since the financial crisis. The move last September sent shares plunging 21% in one day and raised worries about a gradual decline in the global luxury market, which has largely been driven by China. With growth slowing in the world's second-largest economy, it was hard to imagine consumers in debt-troubled U.S. or Europe would pick up the slack.

????As Burberry's latest sales report suggests, they didn't have to. A recent spate of store openings in China contributed to a recovery in sales growth in the Asia Pacific, the luxury brand's biggest and fastest-growing region.

????True, China' growth overall has slowed down. Earlier this week, it reported GDP grew 7.7%during the first three months of this year, lower than the 8% widely expected. The disappointing results were largely driven by a slowdown in consumption growth, but that reflects less on the strength of China's consumers than the government's efforts to curb corruption.

????Earlier this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched a campaign to rein in lavish spending by officials and state-owned companies, warning that excessive spending threatened to bring down the ruling Communist Party. He ordered an end to such things as taxpayer-financed banquets and bribes that have been known to come in the form of Louis Vuitton bags.

????"We think ordinary consumption demand will remain resilient, but sales of high-end food and beverages, and restaurants could have been hit by the new leaders' frugality campaign … " Bank of America analysts wrote in a report released to clients on Monday.

????Analysts expect the government's anti-extravagance campaign to continue weighing on retail sales growth. Burberry might have dodged slower sales this quarter, but the campaign could eventually hit them. Already, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA (LVMHF) is under pressure. On Tuesday, the retailer rattled luxury stocks after reporting the slowest growth in fashion and leather-goods revenue in more than three years because of a drop in Japanese tourism and fewer customers visiting stores in China.

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