????周一，F(xiàn)acebook公司宣布，將斥資10億美元收購圖片共享服務(wù)商Instagram公司。后者公司成立還不到兩年時(shí)間，目前還沒有收入，員工也只有十幾名。不過請(qǐng)記住，收購是收購方覺得被收購公司未來有利可圖才進(jìn)行的行為，而不是簡單地把當(dāng)前的收入或利潤翻幾倍得到收購價(jià)格。那么，為什么Instagram值10億美元呢？

????Facebook是以每個(gè)用戶30美元的價(jià)格收購Instagram的，總金額為10億美元（公式為：30美元/用戶×3300萬用戶=10億美元）。而Facebook自身的估值為每個(gè)用戶價(jià)值100美元，或者說總金額為800億美元（公式為：100美元/用戶×8億用戶=800億美元）。其他流行的社交應(yīng)用的價(jià)值大概是每個(gè)用戶價(jià)值約20美元到50美元不等。只有這個(gè)貨幣化的估值模型繼續(xù)有效，這次收購的估值才算合情合理。

????如果Facebook上周價(jià)值800億美元，那么收購了Instagram后，它現(xiàn)在就值810億美元了嗎？沒錯(cuò)。原因在于：用戶在Facebook的網(wǎng)站上做得最多的事情就是分享照片?，F(xiàn)在照片分享正在手機(jī)上大行其道。而Instagram顯然是手機(jī)照片分享領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)頭羊。Instagram在安卓系統(tǒng)上開放的第一天，用戶數(shù)就增加了100萬。而Facebook上市后亟需向投資者展示自己獨(dú)有的增長引擎。Instagram正是這樣的增長引擎，而且對(duì)Facebook和它的投資者來說，Instagram的價(jià)值還遠(yuǎn)不止10億美元。

????從Web 2.0到手機(jī)應(yīng)用。幾乎所有應(yīng)用都在走向移動(dòng)領(lǐng)域。社交應(yīng)用Path、Instagram和定位社交網(wǎng)站FourSquare都已經(jīng)完全手機(jī)化了，它們對(duì)傳統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)已毫無興趣。這種變化標(biāo)志著另一次重大轉(zhuǎn)變的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)已經(jīng)來臨，即從Web 2.0發(fā)展到移動(dòng)應(yīng)用。Facebook擁有最出色的移動(dòng)應(yīng)用，同時(shí)它需要升級(jí)自己的移動(dòng)服務(wù)。Path是設(shè)計(jì)最精美的移動(dòng)應(yīng)用，用戶體驗(yàn)無與倫比。Instagram則是最優(yōu)秀的移動(dòng)設(shè)備照片分享應(yīng)用。FourSquare是手機(jī)定位數(shù)據(jù)領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。這三家公司對(duì)于任何一家想在移動(dòng)應(yīng)用模式轉(zhuǎn)型中占據(jù)支配地位的公司來說都可謂至關(guān)重要。

????對(duì)微軟（Microsoft）或Twitter來說，Instagram也值10億美元嗎？可能不值。微軟無法像Facebook那樣對(duì)公司的用戶和成長性進(jìn)行貨幣化定價(jià)。微軟并不關(guān)注社交媒體或手機(jī)上的照片應(yīng)用。Twitter能從Instagram獲得巨大價(jià)值，但為此值得花上10億美元？還是三思而后行吧。而且Twitter通過與Instagram合作就獲得大量用戶和流量，并不需要直接擁有這家公司。

????對(duì)不同的收購方來說，同一家公司的價(jià)值差別是很大的。對(duì)于Facebook來說，它能按照每個(gè)用戶100美元的定價(jià)來將自己的用戶貨幣化，因此為每個(gè)用戶花30美元的收購就是劃算的買賣。而對(duì)另一家潛在的收購方來說就不是這么回事了。這取決于它們的貨幣化模型，以及它們打算將來如何使用被收購的公司。這就是為什么Instagram對(duì)Facebook來說值10億美元，而美國在線公司（AOL）的專利對(duì)微軟來說也值10億美元。對(duì)這兩家收購方所要實(shí)現(xiàn)的目標(biāo)來說，它們的收購都算是物有所值。

????Don Dodge是谷歌公司（Google）的開發(fā)者支持人員，主要職責(zé)是幫助開發(fā)者在谷歌平臺(tái)和技術(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上開發(fā)新應(yīng)用。之前，他曾是微軟公司的一名初創(chuàng)公司推廣人員。本文最初發(fā)表于他的博客。

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????Facebook yesterday announced that it will pay $1 billion to acquire Instagram -- a company that is less than two years old, has no revenue and about a dozen employees. Remember, acquisitions are about what the acquirer can do with the company in the future, not some multiple of revenues or profits today. So why is Instagram worth $1 billion?

????Facebook acquired Instagram for about $30 per user, or $1 billion. ($30/user X 33M users = $1B). Facebook is valued at about $100 per user or $80 billion ($100/user X 800M users = $80Bn). Other popular social apps are valued around $20 to $50 per user. The monetization models need to work out about the same to justify the valuations.

????If Facebook was worth $80 billion last week, is it worth $81 billion now with the addition of Instagram? Yes. Here's why: The number one thing people do on Facebook is share photos. Photos are going mobile in a big way. Instagram is the clear leader in mobile photos. Instagram added one million users in the first day of availability on Android. Facebook needs a growth engine to show investors after they go public. Instagram is that growth engine, and it is worth much more than $1 billion to Facebook and its investors.

????Web2.0 to Mobile. Everything is going mobile. Path, Instagram and FourSquare, are totally mobile, and don't care about the web. This could mark the turning point for another sea change; Web 2.0 to Mobile. Facebook has a horrible mobile app and needs to upgrade its mobile services. Path is the most elegantly designed mobile app, with an awesome user experience. Instagram is the best mobile photo app. FourSquare is the leader in mobile location data. All of them are critical to any company that wants to dominate the mobile paradigm shift.

????Is Instagram worth $1B to Microsoft or Twitter? Probably not. Microsoft (MSFT) couldn't monetize the users and growth in the same way that Facebook can. Microsoft isn't focused on social or mobile photos. Twitter could realize a ton of value from Instagram, but $1 billion? Probably not. Twitter will still get lots of users and traffic from Instagram. They don't need to own it.

????The value of a company is different for different potential acquirers. If Facebook can monetize its users in a way that justifies $100/user, than paying $30 per user for an acquisition is a great deal. For other potential acquirers maybe not. It depends on their monetization model, and what they plan to do with the acquisition in the future. This is why Instagram is worth $1 billion to Facebook, and why AOL (AOL) patents are worth $1B to Microsoft. They both acquired good value for what they want to accomplish.

????Don Dodge is a Developer Advocate at Google helping developers build new applications on Google platforms and technologies. Prior to joining Google Don was a startup evangelist at Microsoft. This post originally appeared on his blog.