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美股連續(xù)暴跌,上市公司萬億回購化為烏有

Shawn Tully
2020-03-19

當股票被重新定價,回購的收益瞬間消失,多數(shù)情況下,看不到賺回來的希望。

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過去幾年,美國公司成了他們自己股票的最大買主,購買額遙遙領先。據(jù)高盛11月的一份研究,從2016到2019年,美國的大市值企業(yè)重購股票金額達令人咂舌的2.5萬億美元。去年標普500企業(yè)的分紅和回購達4800億美元,超過這些公司的現(xiàn)金流總額——順便提一句,目前回購金額遠超分紅,因為美國公司青睞所謂的“現(xiàn)金回歸股東”金融工具。

在兩種情況下,回購確實是好主意。首先,大型成熟的公司擁有充沛的收入,但可能無法找到可盈利的項目進行再投資,從汽車制造商到消費品提供商都存在這種情況。其次,管理層將股票當作交易。比如,公司股票達19倍市盈率,而管理層認為真實價值應該在22倍市盈率,那么如果他們是對的,通過折價回購股票的方式讓每個股東擁有更多的股份,將在未來給他們創(chuàng)造收益。這種做法遵循了沃倫·巴菲特的信條:當股價低于其內(nèi)在價值時,重購是明智的。

但要記住,當投資者每年賣出其股票的比例,等于回購所降低的公司股票數(shù)的比例,投資者只是把回購轉成了現(xiàn)金。我不提復雜的數(shù)學公式,舉個例子解釋。比如你擁有XYZ公司的股票,而管理層去年回購了5%的股票,那么你可以賣出你股票的5%獲得現(xiàn)金,而你仍舊擁有去年你在XYZ的股票比例額。

但這個神奇的公式,只有在估值合理、公司確實回購了,且不在股票低位時重置才有效。

我們剛剛經(jīng)歷這樣一次史詩般的重新定價。2月19日在史上最高點,標普的市盈率高達24。而當股市3月16日周一收盤時,已經(jīng)跌到17,這是基于創(chuàng)紀錄收益的數(shù)字,也將很快消褪,但看起來仍有泡沫。

記住,回購的目的是提高每股收益和讓投資者獲得資本回報。作為一個投資者,如果你每年賣出你擁有股票的一部分,并將收益存起來,你的日子要比一直持有所有股票好得多。如果你一直不賣,最終你會擁有比如XYZ公司的越來越大比例的股份,如果XYZ公司目前市值比三周前少了30%,這股價跌掉的部分,遠超你股份增加的利益。由于拋售程度很深,范圍很廣,自2017年8月開始的1.25萬億美元回購收益的很大一部分,在標普達到今天的水平時,已經(jīng)蒸發(fā)掉了。

所以,突然間回購看似壞交易,至少短期內(nèi)如此。長期看,形勢還不明朗。比如一些大銀行,包括摩根大通、美國銀行和富國銀行,他們在市盈率處于低到中的個位數(shù)時進行了回購,盡管目前的市盈率慘不忍睹,但看未來幾年,他們的回購還是不錯的交易。(目前,最大的8家銀行宣布暫停股票回購,以釋放資金借貸給企業(yè)和消費者)。

另一方面,四家大型航空公司,美聯(lián)航、西南航空、達美航空和美國航空,從2015至2019年的五個財政年度里,大筆花費了310億美元回購自家的股票,相當于他們凈收入的三分之二。每家公司在這個5年期初始時的股價都高于今天的股價,基本要高得多,美國航空和美聯(lián)航的股價跌了70%。由于這些年的股票回購,他們所擁有的股票數(shù)都超過2015初始時。如果有人堅決地持有這些股票,而不是每年賣掉一些,那么他們將很難從這場回購盛宴中分到一杯羹。

結論:市場已經(jīng)調整了價格,因為大家都看到,目前的世界比三周前風險更大。這使得管理層這些年標榜的好交易,在今日看來是很糟糕的。多數(shù)情況下,首席執(zhí)行官和董事會應該更知情,并應該將這數(shù)十億美元回歸到分紅中。大拋售揭示了股票回購的陰暗面。當股票被重新定價,回購的收益瞬間消失,在多數(shù)情況下,看不到賺回來的希望。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:宣峰

過去幾年,美國公司成了他們自己股票的最大買主,購買額遙遙領先。據(jù)高盛11月的一份研究,從2016到2019年,美國的大市值企業(yè)重購股票金額達令人咂舌的2.5萬億美元。去年標普500企業(yè)的分紅和回購達4800億美元,超過這些公司的現(xiàn)金流總額——順便提一句,目前回購金額遠超分紅,因為美國公司青睞所謂的“現(xiàn)金回歸股東”金融工具。

在兩種情況下,回購確實是好主意。首先,大型成熟的公司擁有充沛的收入,但可能無法找到可盈利的項目進行再投資,從汽車制造商到消費品提供商都存在這種情況。其次,管理層將股票當作交易。比如,公司股票達19倍市盈率,而管理層認為真實價值應該在22倍市盈率,那么如果他們是對的,通過折價回購股票的方式讓每個股東擁有更多的股份,將在未來給他們創(chuàng)造收益。這種做法遵循了沃倫·巴菲特的信條:當股價低于其內(nèi)在價值時,重購是明智的。

但要記住,當投資者每年賣出其股票的比例,等于回購所降低的公司股票數(shù)的比例,投資者只是把回購轉成了現(xiàn)金。我不提復雜的數(shù)學公式,舉個例子解釋。比如你擁有XYZ公司的股票,而管理層去年回購了5%的股票,那么你可以賣出你股票的5%獲得現(xiàn)金,而你仍舊擁有去年你在XYZ的股票比例額。

但這個神奇的公式,只有在估值合理、公司確實回購了,且不在股票低位時重置才有效。

我們剛剛經(jīng)歷這樣一次史詩般的重新定價。2月19日在史上最高點,標普的市盈率高達24。而當股市3月16日周一收盤時,已經(jīng)跌到17,這是基于創(chuàng)紀錄收益的數(shù)字,也將很快消褪,但看起來仍有泡沫。

記住,回購的目的是提高每股收益和讓投資者獲得資本回報。作為一個投資者,如果你每年賣出你擁有股票的一部分,并將收益存起來,你的日子要比一直持有所有股票好得多。如果你一直不賣,最終你會擁有比如XYZ公司的越來越大比例的股份,如果XYZ公司目前市值比三周前少了30%,這股價跌掉的部分,遠超你股份增加的利益。由于拋售程度很深,范圍很廣,自2017年8月開始的1.25萬億美元回購收益的很大一部分,在標普達到今天的水平時,已經(jīng)蒸發(fā)掉了。

所以,突然間回購看似壞交易,至少短期內(nèi)如此。長期看,形勢還不明朗。比如一些大銀行,包括摩根大通、美國銀行和富國銀行,他們在市盈率處于低到中的個位數(shù)時進行了回購,盡管目前的市盈率慘不忍睹,但看未來幾年,他們的回購還是不錯的交易。(目前,最大的8家銀行宣布暫停股票回購,以釋放資金借貸給企業(yè)和消費者)。

另一方面,四家大型航空公司,美聯(lián)航、西南航空、達美航空和美國航空,從2015至2019年的五個財政年度里,大筆花費了310億美元回購自家的股票,相當于他們凈收入的三分之二。每家公司在這個5年期初始時的股價都高于今天的股價,基本要高得多,美國航空和美聯(lián)航的股價跌了70%。由于這些年的股票回購,他們所擁有的股票數(shù)都超過2015初始時。如果有人堅決地持有這些股票,而不是每年賣掉一些,那么他們將很難從這場回購盛宴中分到一杯羹。

結論:市場已經(jīng)調整了價格,因為大家都看到,目前的世界比三周前風險更大。這使得管理層這些年標榜的好交易,在今日看來是很糟糕的。多數(shù)情況下,首席執(zhí)行官和董事會應該更知情,并應該將這數(shù)十億美元回歸到分紅中。大拋售揭示了股票回購的陰暗面。當股票被重新定價,回購的收益瞬間消失,在多數(shù)情況下,看不到賺回來的希望。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:宣峰

For the past several years, America's corporations have been by far the biggest buyers of their own stock. From 2016 through 2019, our big cap enterprises repurchased a staggering $2.5 trillion in shares, according to a November study by Goldman Sachs. Last year's outlays of $480 billion in dividends and buybacks by the S&P 500 amounted to over 100% of their free cash flow––and by the way, buybacks now far exceed dividends as corporate America's favored vehicle for what's known as "returning cash to shareholders."

Buybacks are indeed a good idea under two conditions. First, the company can't find profitable ways to reinvest part of its ample earnings, generally the case with big, mature businesses from automakers to consumer goods purveyors. Second, management perceives their shares as a bargain. For example, if their stock is selling at an 19 price-to-earnings multiple, and the brass believes that its real value is more like 22 time earnings, then if they're correct, handing each shareholder a bigger ownership stake through buying back shares at a discount will enhance their returns in the future. That practice follows Warren Buffett's maxim that repurchases are smart when a stock is selling below its "intrinsic value."

But keep in mind, investors themselves only translate buybacks into cash if each year they sell the percentage of their shares that equals the percentage by which the buybacks lowered the company's share count. I'll save you from all the math, but if you own stock in XYZ Corp, and management repurchased 5% of its shares last year, you could sell 5% of your shares, pocket the cash, and still own the same percentage of XYZ you held the year before.

But this marvelous formula only works if valuations were reasonable when companies did the gorging, and don't reset at much lower levels.

We've just experienced just such an epic repricing. At its all-time high on February 19, the S&P traded at a lofty P/E of 24. As of the market close on Monday, March 16, that benchmark has dropped to 17.0, a number that based on record earnings that will soon retreat, still looks frothy.

Remember, the purpose of buybacks is to raise earnings per share and hand investors capital gains. As an investor, if you'd sold a portion of your holdings every year and banked the gains, you'd be a lot better off than if you'd held all of your stock. If you didn't sell anything, you've ended up owning a bigger and bigger percentage of, say, XYZ, and XYZ is now worth 30% less than than it was three weeks ago. The fall in the share price far outweighed the increase in your stake. Because the selloff is so steep and broad, a giant portion of the erstwhile benefits of the $1.25 trillion in buybacks since August of 2017, when the S&P stood at today's levels, have evaporated.

So repurchases suddenly look like a raw deal, at least in the short term. In the long-run, it's not yet clear. For example, the big banks, including J.P. Morgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, were purchasing at PEs in the low to middle single digits, and incredible as it may seem today, those buys may look well founded a couple of years from now. (For now, eight of the largest banks announced they are suspending buybacks to free up capital to lend to businesses and consumers.)

On the other hand, the big four airlines, United Continental, Southwest, Deltaand American, lavished $31 billion on their own shares from the start of fiscal 2015 through 2019, equal to two-thirds of their net earnings. In every case, their shares were higher when at the start of that five year period than they are today, generally by a lot; shares are down around 70% at both American and United. Their shares were mostly above the 2015 starting point during the entire time they were buying in all that stock. It's unlikely that staunch loyalists who didn't cash in shares each year will ever see any benefits from that buyback extravaganza.

Conclusion: Markets have reset prices based on the view that the world is a much riskier place than it appeared just three weeks ago. That makes what management touted as great deals for years look terrible today. In many cases, CEOs and boards should have known better, and returned those billions in dividends instead. The selloff has revealed the dark side of buybacks. When stocks get repriced, the gains from repurchases vanish in a hurry, with in many cases, little prospect of returning.

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