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疫情中,二手電商面臨新難題:供大于求

一場(chǎng)原本看似遙不可及的疫情,真的殺到家門(mén)口了,瞬間冷卻了人們購(gòu)買(mǎi)必需品以外所有東西的熱情。

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3月11日,二手電商業(yè)務(wù)在美國(guó)的迅猛增長(zhǎng)戛然而止。這一天,世界衛(wèi)生組織宣布,新型冠狀病毒為全球大流行病。

對(duì)許多美國(guó)人來(lái)說(shuō),那一刻,一場(chǎng)爆發(fā)于中國(guó)、原本看似遙不可及的疫情,真的殺到家門(mén)口了。它的來(lái)襲,瞬間冷卻了人們購(gòu)買(mǎi)必需品以外所有東西的熱情。一夜之間,衛(wèi)生紙變得比百貨商店廉價(jià)出售的羊毛衫還要搶手。

“當(dāng)人們開(kāi)始反應(yīng)過(guò)來(lái)后,零售經(jīng)濟(jì)一下子就受到巨大的沖擊,消費(fèi)支出急劇減少。”平價(jià)二手服裝網(wǎng)站ThredUp首席執(zhí)行官詹姆斯·萊因哈特向《財(cái)富》雜志表示。

“人們不知道是該買(mǎi)東西,還是賣(mài)東西”

一開(kāi)始,人們擔(dān)心的是很現(xiàn)實(shí)的問(wèn)題:飽受驚嚇的消費(fèi)者想知道,取包裹是不是都有安全隱患?病毒會(huì)不會(huì)殘留在包裹和商品上?賣(mài)家也同樣擔(dān)心這一點(diǎn)。(世界衛(wèi)生組織和多家美國(guó)政府機(jī)構(gòu)已澄清,處理網(wǎng)購(gòu)包裹是安全的。)

“人們都有點(diǎn)困惑,都不知道是該在Poshmark上買(mǎi)東西還是賣(mài)東西?!倍址b交易平臺(tái)Poshmark首席執(zhí)行官馬尼什·錢(qián)德拉說(shuō)。

Poshmark和ThredUp都是私有企業(yè),它們不愿透露過(guò)去兩周業(yè)務(wù)具體下滑情況,但二手電商就跟其他非必需品零售一樣,明顯正在遭受重創(chuàng)。

由于新冠病毒疫情給經(jīng)營(yíng)帶來(lái)不確定性,銷(xiāo)售二手高端奢侈品的上市公司The RealReal上周撤銷(xiāo)了2020年的業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)測(cè),他們還被迫關(guān)閉了加州的一個(gè)電子商務(wù)中心,并取消了旗下寄售店的預(yù)約。奢侈品零售,哪怕是低價(jià)奢侈品,往往在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中受打擊最嚴(yán)重,尤其是股市大跌時(shí),人們理財(cái)觀發(fā)生變化,變得節(jié)約起來(lái)。法國(guó)奢侈品集團(tuán)路易威登近期宣布,受疫情影響,其第一季度銷(xiāo)售額可能將下跌20%。

不過(guò),隨著恐慌逐漸減弱,人們被迫坐在家里的電腦前辦公或消遣,使得二手電商正在緩慢復(fù)蘇。

“人們正慢慢地消化疫情消息,一種新常態(tài)正在出現(xiàn),盡管沒(méi)之前那么理想,但我們預(yù)計(jì)業(yè)務(wù)會(huì)有所反彈。”萊因哈特說(shuō)。

錢(qián)德拉也表示,Poshmark在售商品呈現(xiàn)激增,過(guò)去一周的訂單比前一周增長(zhǎng)了20%。在他看來(lái),在售商品之所以大增,部分因?yàn)楹芏嗳耸I(yè),或被迫休無(wú)薪假,他們正在尋找新的收入來(lái)源。(美國(guó)勞工部上周四稱(chēng),最新的失業(yè)救濟(jì)申請(qǐng)人數(shù)達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的330萬(wàn)。)

零售業(yè)中,二手電商最有前景

這給二手電商帶來(lái)另一個(gè)問(wèn)題:供大與求。結(jié)果,主要二手電商網(wǎng)站上的商品價(jià)格下滑,給很多賣(mài)家潑了盆冷水。不過(guò),ThredUp和Poshmark都稱(chēng),各自平臺(tái)的供需平衡正在開(kāi)始恢復(fù)。

談到二手電商的長(zhǎng)期前景時(shí),萊因哈特說(shuō):“我不知道到底要幾周還是要幾個(gè)月才能恢復(fù)過(guò)來(lái),但完全沒(méi)人買(mǎi)東西的那種恐慌已經(jīng)過(guò)去了?!?/p>

正是這種趨勢(shì),讓二手電商在困難重重的零售業(yè)中,成為最有前景的一個(gè)領(lǐng)域。市場(chǎng)研究公司GlobalData在2019年發(fā)布的報(bào)告估計(jì),到2023年,美國(guó)二手電商銷(xiāo)售額將從去年的70億美元增長(zhǎng)至230億美元,刺激其需求增長(zhǎng)的原因包括環(huán)保意識(shí)、復(fù)古產(chǎn)品暢銷(xiāo)等等。

不過(guò),二手電商行業(yè)首先得跨過(guò)當(dāng)前的危機(jī)。至于疫情到底什么時(shí)候會(huì)好轉(zhuǎn),這個(gè)行業(yè)沒(méi)法預(yù)測(cè)也無(wú)能為力,但一些大型二手電商企業(yè)正在做出一些調(diào)整,以幫助對(duì)他們至關(guān)重要的賣(mài)家。比如,eBay表示,某些條件下可以延長(zhǎng)賣(mài)家的付費(fèi)時(shí)限,同時(shí)也放寬了商品發(fā)貨時(shí)間。RealReal公司也在幫助賣(mài)家設(shè)置在線(xiàn)預(yù)約。

市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷(xiāo)方面,各家公司也在隨機(jī)應(yīng)變。Poshmark原本計(jì)劃在多家星巴克門(mén)店舉辦聯(lián)名活動(dòng),召集賣(mài)家分享經(jīng)營(yíng)心得,相互結(jié)識(shí)交流,而現(xiàn)在,400人的聚集活動(dòng)將改為通過(guò)視頻會(huì)議程序Zoom舉行。錢(qián)德拉說(shuō),這是為了讓平臺(tái)賣(mài)家們繼續(xù)保持溝通,共同渡過(guò)當(dāng)下的動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期,這樣,未來(lái)恢復(fù)到正常運(yùn)營(yíng)的過(guò)程就會(huì)容易一些,不管那個(gè)時(shí)刻什么時(shí)候到來(lái)。

服裝類(lèi)消費(fèi)需求減少

Poshmark、ThredUp和RealReal主要買(mǎi)賣(mài)的都是服裝類(lèi)商品,但現(xiàn)在消費(fèi)者基本只買(mǎi)生活必需品,服裝銷(xiāo)售額已經(jīng)直線(xiàn)下降。一些報(bào)告稱(chēng),3月份一些市場(chǎng)的服裝銷(xiāo)售額將下降80%。商品種類(lèi)較多元的網(wǎng)站受影響可能沒(méi)那么大。eBay發(fā)言人向《財(cái)富》雜志透露,家居裝飾品和電游等娛樂(lè)商品銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)。同樣的銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)情況也出現(xiàn)在賣(mài)一手產(chǎn)品的電子城或家居市場(chǎng)里。

理論上,現(xiàn)在一些大型服裝連鎖店,以及主賣(mài)衣服的百貨商城紛紛關(guān)店,停止運(yùn)營(yíng),二手商務(wù)似乎可以乘機(jī)去擴(kuò)大市場(chǎng)份額,但實(shí)際上,并沒(méi)那么簡(jiǎn)單。那些連鎖店和服裝零售商最終會(huì)降價(jià)出售商品,沖擊整個(gè)服裝市場(chǎng)。

“服裝商品可能會(huì)大幅折價(jià),服裝零售商短期內(nèi)很可能庫(kù)存過(guò)剩?!盙artner資深總監(jiān)兼分析師托馬斯·奧康納說(shuō)。

那些庫(kù)存有很大一部分最終可能會(huì)落到服裝折扣店里,比如,連鎖折扣店T.J. Maxx里有C.K.,耐克等各種從百貨商店退回的品牌,高端百貨公司特德斯特龍也有自己的折扣店Nordstrom Rack。那些商店里的衣服不僅價(jià)格低廉,而且也同樣像二手電商平臺(tái)里那樣可以讓人“淘寶”。

此外,許多大城市都處于半封城狀態(tài),人們無(wú)法去餐館、劇院、酒吧,連辦公室都不用去,因此,長(zhǎng)時(shí)間下來(lái),二手商品網(wǎng)站恐怕還是會(huì)有經(jīng)營(yíng)壓力?!跋M(fèi)者不會(huì)像之前那樣經(jīng)常出門(mén)了,因此不怎么需要買(mǎi)衣服了?!眾W康納稱(chēng)。

奧康納和其他分析人士認(rèn)為,二手電商終將興起,這一點(diǎn)不容置疑。唯一的問(wèn)題是,當(dāng)前經(jīng)營(yíng)被干擾的局面到底要持續(xù)多長(zhǎng)。“它不會(huì)消失的,這是肯定的,”奧康納說(shuō),“但到底會(huì)在什么時(shí)候復(fù)蘇,重新加速發(fā)展呢?”

在中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi),二手電商也因疫情經(jīng)歷了一番洗劫。比如曾吸引各類(lèi)資本進(jìn)場(chǎng)“燒錢(qián)”的二手車(chē)電商平臺(tái),如優(yōu)信、瓜子等,也頻頻傳出降薪、裁員的消息。

目前,閑魚(yú)、轉(zhuǎn)轉(zhuǎn)等綜合性二手交易平臺(tái)并沒(méi)有通報(bào)自身受疫情的負(fù)面影響,反而據(jù)媒體報(bào)道,2月,閑魚(yú)轉(zhuǎn)轉(zhuǎn)新用戶(hù)大增,很多被困家中的普通人都開(kāi)始轉(zhuǎn)售閑置品作為副業(yè)賺錢(qián),此外,中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,到2020年,二手交易市場(chǎng)規(guī)模預(yù)計(jì)達(dá)到1萬(wàn)億。

但和其他國(guó)家一樣,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)也遭受了嚴(yán)重的沖擊,屆時(shí),到底人們對(duì)二手買(mǎi)賣(mài)的需求到底有多大,這些都可以讓時(shí)間來(lái)告訴我們。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:萬(wàn)志文

責(zé)編:雨晨

3月11日,二手電商業(yè)務(wù)在美國(guó)的迅猛增長(zhǎng)戛然而止。這一天,世界衛(wèi)生組織宣布,新型冠狀病毒為全球大流行病。

對(duì)許多美國(guó)人來(lái)說(shuō),那一刻,一場(chǎng)爆發(fā)于中國(guó)、原本看似遙不可及的疫情,真的殺到家門(mén)口了。它的來(lái)襲,瞬間冷卻了人們購(gòu)買(mǎi)必需品以外所有東西的熱情。一夜之間,衛(wèi)生紙變得比百貨商店廉價(jià)出售的羊毛衫還要搶手。

“當(dāng)人們開(kāi)始反應(yīng)過(guò)來(lái)后,零售經(jīng)濟(jì)一下子就受到巨大的沖擊,消費(fèi)支出急劇減少?!逼絻r(jià)二手服裝網(wǎng)站ThredUp首席執(zhí)行官詹姆斯·萊因哈特向《財(cái)富》雜志表示。

“人們不知道是該買(mǎi)東西,還是賣(mài)東西”

一開(kāi)始,人們擔(dān)心的是很現(xiàn)實(shí)的問(wèn)題:飽受驚嚇的消費(fèi)者想知道,取包裹是不是都有安全隱患?病毒會(huì)不會(huì)殘留在包裹和商品上?賣(mài)家也同樣擔(dān)心這一點(diǎn)。(世界衛(wèi)生組織和多家美國(guó)政府機(jī)構(gòu)已澄清,處理網(wǎng)購(gòu)包裹是安全的。)

“人們都有點(diǎn)困惑,都不知道是該在Poshmark上買(mǎi)東西還是賣(mài)東西?!倍址b交易平臺(tái)Poshmark首席執(zhí)行官馬尼什·錢(qián)德拉說(shuō)。

Poshmark和ThredUp都是私有企業(yè),它們不愿透露過(guò)去兩周業(yè)務(wù)具體下滑情況,但二手電商就跟其他非必需品零售一樣,明顯正在遭受重創(chuàng)。

由于新冠病毒疫情給經(jīng)營(yíng)帶來(lái)不確定性,銷(xiāo)售二手高端奢侈品的上市公司The RealReal上周撤銷(xiāo)了2020年的業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)測(cè),他們還被迫關(guān)閉了加州的一個(gè)電子商務(wù)中心,并取消了旗下寄售店的預(yù)約。奢侈品零售,哪怕是低價(jià)奢侈品,往往在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中受打擊最嚴(yán)重,尤其是股市大跌時(shí),人們理財(cái)觀發(fā)生變化,變得節(jié)約起來(lái)。法國(guó)奢侈品集團(tuán)路易威登近期宣布,受疫情影響,其第一季度銷(xiāo)售額可能將下跌20%。

不過(guò),隨著恐慌逐漸減弱,人們被迫坐在家里的電腦前辦公或消遣,使得二手電商正在緩慢復(fù)蘇。

“人們正慢慢地消化疫情消息,一種新常態(tài)正在出現(xiàn),盡管沒(méi)之前那么理想,但我們預(yù)計(jì)業(yè)務(wù)會(huì)有所反彈。”萊因哈特說(shuō)。

錢(qián)德拉也表示,Poshmark在售商品呈現(xiàn)激增,過(guò)去一周的訂單比前一周增長(zhǎng)了20%。在他看來(lái),在售商品之所以大增,部分因?yàn)楹芏嗳耸I(yè),或被迫休無(wú)薪假,他們正在尋找新的收入來(lái)源。(美國(guó)勞工部上周四稱(chēng),最新的失業(yè)救濟(jì)申請(qǐng)人數(shù)達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的330萬(wàn)。)

零售業(yè)中,二手電商最有前景

這給二手電商帶來(lái)另一個(gè)問(wèn)題:供大與求。結(jié)果,主要二手電商網(wǎng)站上的商品價(jià)格下滑,給很多賣(mài)家潑了盆冷水。不過(guò),ThredUp和Poshmark都稱(chēng),各自平臺(tái)的供需平衡正在開(kāi)始恢復(fù)。

談到二手電商的長(zhǎng)期前景時(shí),萊因哈特說(shuō):“我不知道到底要幾周還是要幾個(gè)月才能恢復(fù)過(guò)來(lái),但完全沒(méi)人買(mǎi)東西的那種恐慌已經(jīng)過(guò)去了?!?/p>

正是這種趨勢(shì),讓二手電商在困難重重的零售業(yè)中,成為最有前景的一個(gè)領(lǐng)域。市場(chǎng)研究公司GlobalData在2019年發(fā)布的報(bào)告估計(jì),到2023年,美國(guó)二手電商銷(xiāo)售額將從去年的70億美元增長(zhǎng)至230億美元,刺激其需求增長(zhǎng)的原因包括環(huán)保意識(shí)、復(fù)古產(chǎn)品暢銷(xiāo)等等。

不過(guò),二手電商行業(yè)首先得跨過(guò)當(dāng)前的危機(jī)。至于疫情到底什么時(shí)候會(huì)好轉(zhuǎn),這個(gè)行業(yè)沒(méi)法預(yù)測(cè)也無(wú)能為力,但一些大型二手電商企業(yè)正在做出一些調(diào)整,以幫助對(duì)他們至關(guān)重要的賣(mài)家。比如,eBay表示,某些條件下可以延長(zhǎng)賣(mài)家的付費(fèi)時(shí)限,同時(shí)也放寬了商品發(fā)貨時(shí)間。RealReal公司也在幫助賣(mài)家設(shè)置在線(xiàn)預(yù)約。

市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷(xiāo)方面,各家公司也在隨機(jī)應(yīng)變。Poshmark原本計(jì)劃在多家星巴克門(mén)店舉辦聯(lián)名活動(dòng),召集賣(mài)家分享經(jīng)營(yíng)心得,相互結(jié)識(shí)交流,而現(xiàn)在,400人的聚集活動(dòng)將改為通過(guò)視頻會(huì)議程序Zoom舉行。錢(qián)德拉說(shuō),這是為了讓平臺(tái)賣(mài)家們繼續(xù)保持溝通,共同渡過(guò)當(dāng)下的動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期,這樣,未來(lái)恢復(fù)到正常運(yùn)營(yíng)的過(guò)程就會(huì)容易一些,不管那個(gè)時(shí)刻什么時(shí)候到來(lái)。

服裝類(lèi)消費(fèi)需求減少

Poshmark、ThredUp和RealReal主要買(mǎi)賣(mài)的都是服裝類(lèi)商品,但現(xiàn)在消費(fèi)者基本只買(mǎi)生活必需品,服裝銷(xiāo)售額已經(jīng)直線(xiàn)下降。一些報(bào)告稱(chēng),3月份一些市場(chǎng)的服裝銷(xiāo)售額將下降80%。商品種類(lèi)較多元的網(wǎng)站受影響可能沒(méi)那么大。eBay發(fā)言人向《財(cái)富》雜志透露,家居裝飾品和電游等娛樂(lè)商品銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)。同樣的銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)情況也出現(xiàn)在賣(mài)一手產(chǎn)品的電子城或家居市場(chǎng)里。

理論上,現(xiàn)在一些大型服裝連鎖店,以及主賣(mài)衣服的百貨商城紛紛關(guān)店,停止運(yùn)營(yíng),二手商務(wù)似乎可以乘機(jī)去擴(kuò)大市場(chǎng)份額,但實(shí)際上,并沒(méi)那么簡(jiǎn)單。那些連鎖店和服裝零售商最終會(huì)降價(jià)出售商品,沖擊整個(gè)服裝市場(chǎng)。

“服裝商品可能會(huì)大幅折價(jià),服裝零售商短期內(nèi)很可能庫(kù)存過(guò)剩?!盙artner資深總監(jiān)兼分析師托馬斯·奧康納說(shuō)。

那些庫(kù)存有很大一部分最終可能會(huì)落到服裝折扣店里,比如,連鎖折扣店T.J. Maxx里有C.K.,耐克等各種從百貨商店退回的品牌,高端百貨公司特德斯特龍也有自己的折扣店Nordstrom Rack。那些商店里的衣服不僅價(jià)格低廉,而且也同樣像二手電商平臺(tái)里那樣可以讓人“淘寶”。

此外,許多大城市都處于半封城狀態(tài),人們無(wú)法去餐館、劇院、酒吧,連辦公室都不用去,因此,長(zhǎng)時(shí)間下來(lái),二手商品網(wǎng)站恐怕還是會(huì)有經(jīng)營(yíng)壓力。“消費(fèi)者不會(huì)像之前那樣經(jīng)常出門(mén)了,因此不怎么需要買(mǎi)衣服了?!眾W康納稱(chēng)。

奧康納和其他分析人士認(rèn)為,二手電商終將興起,這一點(diǎn)不容置疑。唯一的問(wèn)題是,當(dāng)前經(jīng)營(yíng)被干擾的局面到底要持續(xù)多長(zhǎng)?!八粫?huì)消失的,這是肯定的,”奧康納說(shuō),“但到底會(huì)在什么時(shí)候復(fù)蘇,重新加速發(fā)展呢?”

在中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi),二手電商也因疫情經(jīng)歷了一番洗劫。比如曾吸引各類(lèi)資本進(jìn)場(chǎng)“燒錢(qián)”的二手車(chē)電商平臺(tái),如優(yōu)信、瓜子等,也頻頻傳出降薪、裁員的消息。

目前,閑魚(yú)、轉(zhuǎn)轉(zhuǎn)等綜合性二手交易平臺(tái)并沒(méi)有通報(bào)自身受疫情的負(fù)面影響,反而據(jù)媒體報(bào)道,2月,閑魚(yú)轉(zhuǎn)轉(zhuǎn)新用戶(hù)大增,很多被困家中的普通人都開(kāi)始轉(zhuǎn)售閑置品作為副業(yè)賺錢(qián),此外,中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,到2020年,二手交易市場(chǎng)規(guī)模預(yù)計(jì)達(dá)到1萬(wàn)億。

但和其他國(guó)家一樣,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)也遭受了嚴(yán)重的沖擊,屆時(shí),到底人們對(duì)二手買(mǎi)賣(mài)的需求到底有多大,這些都可以讓時(shí)間來(lái)告訴我們。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:萬(wàn)志文

責(zé)編:雨晨

The fast growth of re-commerce—the online marketplaces for secondhand goods and one of retail's hottest areas—came to a screeching halt on March 11. That was the day the World Health Organization declared that COVID-19 had become a pandemic.

For many Americans, it was the moment that an outbreak that had started in China and previously seemed remote really hit home. It instantly cooled any enthusiasm for shopping for anything other than bare necessities. Toilet paper suddenly became more desirable than that vintage Barneys New York cashmere sweater being resold for a song.

"When it really started to sink in for people, there was a huge shock to the system, and there was a real pullback in spending," James Reinhart, cofounder and chief executive of ThredUp, tells Fortune.

Initially, the concerns were very practical too: Shell-shocked buyers wondered whether it was even safe to order things and receive packages, fretting whether the virus could still be on the items. Sellers wondered the same. (The World Health Organization and U.S. government agencies have said handling packages is safe.)

"There was a bit of confusion across the community of whether we should buy on Poshmark, or be selling on Poshmark," says Poshmark CEO Manish Chandra.

Both Poshmark and ThredUp are privately held and wouldn't quantify the drop in business in the past two weeks, but it is clear re-commerce, just like the rest of nonessential retail right now, is taking a big hit.

The RealReal, which is publicly traded and sells secondhand high-luxury products, pulled its 2020 financial forecasts last week because of coronavirus-related uncertainty. It has also had to close an e-commerce center in California and cancel appointments at its consignment stores. Luxury, even at lower prices, is typically the hardest hit part of retail during a crisis, especially when a big stock market swoon hits people's perception of their own wealth. French luxury conglomerate LVMH said on Friday first-quarter sales could fall as much as 20% because of the virus crisis.

Yet slowly but surely, the re-commerce market is reawakening, as panic recedes and tens of millions of Americans find themselves stuck at home in front of computers.

"As people have digested the news, what we’ve seen is the new normal—not as good as it was before, but we expect to see business rebound," says Reinhart.

Chandra, who said orders last week rose 20% over the week before, noted that Poshmark has seen a surge in items listed for sale. He ascribes some of that to the fact that many Americans, facing furloughs or job losses, are looking for a new source of income. (On Thursday, the Department of Labor said a record 3.3 million had filed for unemployment benefits.)

That has created another problem for re-commerce: Supply and demand are out of sync, pressuring prices on the main re-commerce sites, to the frustration of many sellers. Still, the companies say, balance is beginning to return.

"What I can’t tell you is whether that will take a few weeks or a few months. We’re over the panic of nobody is shopping at all," says Reinhart, predicting re-commerce's long-term prospects hold.

And that trajectory has made re-commerce one of the most promising areas in the beleaguered retail industry. A 2019 report by research firm GlobalData estimated sales of secondhand items excluding Goodwill and thrift shops in the U.S. would rise from $7 billion last year to $23 billion in 2023, with demand stoked by factors such as concerns for the environment and interest in vintage products.

But first the industry has to get past the current crisis. While the sector can't predict or influence how quickly the coronavirus will be contained, the big re-commerce players are making some changes for the sellers on whom they rely to have a functioning marketplace. EBay for one says it is giving sellers more time to pay fees under some circumstances, and more time to ship items. The RealReal is helping sellers facilitate virtual appointments.

On the marketing side, there are also adjustments to everyone's new reality. Poshmark had planned to hold so-called Posh N Coffee events, gatherings that bring together sellers (called "Poshers" by the company) to share tips and network, at many Starbucks stores across the country this weekend. Instead, 400 get-togethers will be held virtually via Zoom. The point, Chandra says, is to keep its marketplace participants in contact with each other through the current turmoil to ease the return to normal—whenever that might happen.

Apparel pullback

Poshmark, ThredUp, and the RealReal are all heavily focused on apparel, an industry that has seen sales plummet as shoppers focus on essentials. Some reports have suggested an 80% drop in clothing sales in some markets this month. (The impact may be less severe on sites that host a wider variety of products; an eBay spokesperson told Fortune that items for home-improvement projects and entertainment like video games were up, echoing comments by retailers like Best Buy and Lowe's that sell such products new.)

In theory, the fact that big apparel chains like Gap Inc. and department stores like Kohl's and Macy's are enduring lengthy store closings should offer re-commerce a market share opportunity. But it's not that simple.Those chains and clothing retailers will eventually cut prices on unsold merchandise, slamming the whole apparel market.

"There’s likely to be significant discounting of apparel. Apparel retailers are likely to be overinventoried in the near term," says Thomas O'Connor, a senior director and analyst at Gartner.

Much of that inventory is likely to end up at "off-price" stores like T.J. Maxx, which sells a lot of merchandise returned to vendors like Calvin Klein or Under Armour by department stores, or at discounters associated with the large chains, such as Nordstrom Rack. Those stores offer not only low prices but also some of the treasure hunt aspect shoppers find appealing about re-commerce.

What's more, there is likely to be pressure on the resale sites from people's inability to go to restaurants, the theater, bars—or even the office—for an extended period while countless major cities are under at least partial lockdowns. "Consumers are not going out nearly as much, therefore don't need clothes to go out as much," he said.

Yet O'Connor and other analysts see re-commerce's ultimate ascent as incontrovertible. The only question is how long the current disruption lasts."It’s not going to go away, of course," he says, of the industry. "But what’s the timeline for re-commerce to recover and reaccelerate?"

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