身處熊市，如何調整401（k）退休金計劃？
CHRIS TAYLOR
2020-04-18
圖片來源：ILLUSTRATION BY JAMIE CULLEN
就在不久前，美國還在慶祝401（k）養(yǎng)老金計劃中資產過百萬人數創(chuàng)下新紀錄。
截至2019年年底，波士頓投資巨頭富達國際管理余額超過100萬美元的401（k）和IRA客戶人數達到創(chuàng)紀錄的44.1萬。與此同時，富達國際401（k）計劃的平均余額達到112300美元，也創(chuàng)下新高。
現在呢？好吧，2020年一季度的數字還在統計，但大家都心知肚明，數據不會好看。
股市一天漲1000點，一天又能跌1000點，這讓多數投資者都會反復思考一個問題：“現在該怎么辦？”
由于想起經常聽到的警告，即世間并不存在適合每位投資者的普適方案，所以我們專門找了退休實務專家，討論在當前情況下該如何應對。
避免“行為偏見”
當遭逢危機時刻，人類的本能感覺是要介入其中并做些大行動。但其實沒有必要?！比绻刻炜粗约旱?01（k）或聽到財經媒體傳播的恐慌消息，你會想，‘下滑了！我要做點什么！’”丹·索林說，他常駐佛羅里達州博尼塔斯普林斯，是一位財務顧問培訓師，也是《你讀過最聰明的401（k）計劃》（The Smartest 401(k) Book You’ll Ever Read）一書的作者?！暗绻憧炊疾豢矗匀徊粫谝?。我就建議人們三到六個月看一次報告。”
這一建議尤其適合年輕投資者。他常接到30多歲的人打電話來說非常擔心401（k）計劃，索林會給出標準回答?！皠e沖動，為什么要這么關心現在發(fā)生的事呢？”他問道。“你應該關心25年或30年后的價值。要放眼長遠，排除所有噪音?！?/p>
根據需要更改繳款比例
往401（k）計劃繳款的比例并不是憑空想的，而應根據具體情況決定。如果情況出現變化，則可以調整繳款比例。
“如果經濟上遇到經濟困難，比如家庭收入減少，當然可以暫時降低繳款比例?！卑蜖柕哪鹑谝?guī)劃公司Facet Wealth的聯合創(chuàng)始人布倫特·韋斯表示?！敖档屠U款比例并不算好事，但當前最重要的任務是鞏固財務狀況度過難關?！?/p>
另一種情況下，如果工作沒有受到影響而且有經濟能力，則可以考慮增加一兩個百分點的繳款比例?！斑@并不意味著觸底，但如果算美元平均成本，而且主要考慮10年或20年后，下跌30%后買進最后受益會相當不錯。”韋斯說。
別用現金
危機中很容易出現放任自己亂花錢的現象。不過，白金漢戰(zhàn)略財富公司的首席研究官拉里·斯韋德羅表示，這么做基本上是“放棄投資組合”。
因為未來某個時候可能重返市場，誰能說清楚會是什么時候？由于多數個人投資者都不善于把握市場時機，亂花錢可能導致結果很糟糕。
“最近出現過道瓊斯指數一天內上漲了11.4%，所以如果之前一天清倉出場，現在該怎么辦？”斯維德羅問道。“我認識一些人2009年離開市場，之后再也沒有回來過。如果只在市場看起來安全時回來，那么市場永遠不會有安全的一天?！?/p>
把將精力投入到高效研究中
如果感覺應該調整投資組合才能避免自己發(fā)瘋，則要至少做些可以帶來長期回報的事。
進一步解釋下，近年來401（k）供應商可能也增加不少資金來源，也許部分資金按照最低比例繳納。這些投資選擇可能比過去更好。要多做些調查，考慮選擇繳費比例較低的渠道，不一定要趕著現在市場恐慌情緒嚴重的時候，等到市場恢復正常再研究不遲。
還有一件事值得長遠考慮：如果你曾在多家公司工作，很有可能在各家公司有多個401（k）計劃，有些公司選擇的基金很不錯，有些選得很差。結果導致你很難跟蹤每筆資金，保持投資計劃的目標。韋斯對此建議道，可以考慮將各個賬戶轉移并合并到單一計劃里，未來掌握資金配置情況會更容易一些。
從市場歷史中學習
身處危機之中，人們會感覺當前是全世界最糟糕的情況。但別驚慌失措瘋狂變現，要用更宏觀的視野看待事情。
根據索林計算，1928年以來市場經歷過25個熊市，平均持續(xù)299天，平均損失36%。與此同時也有26個牛市，持續(xù)1003天，平均漲幅達112%。
“現在處于熊市，但一定會再迎來牛市?！彼髁终f?！斑@是股票比債券獲得更高回報付出的代價。如果無法處理間歇性波動，就不應該接觸股票?！?/p>
利用當前重新評估風險承受能力
如果說你將能承受市場上任何危機，這其實是全世界最容易說的話。而真正去經歷則要困難得多。
因此，從市場狀況就可以判斷出自己實際的風險承受能力?！白詈貌灰袚瞿芰Φ娘L險?！彼咕S德羅說?！懊總€人最終都會逼到極限，呼喊著‘救我出去！’然而光靠本能可做不出明智的決定，最后只會驚慌失措清倉逃離。”
這種情況要避免。如果你不能承受跌幅到30%以上，那就要考慮提升固定收益領域的投資，增加投資組合的穩(wěn)定性。
盡可能避免401（k）貸款
既然已經存了一大筆錢，取出可以免費領取的新冠病毒應急資金，或利用退休金申請標準貸款可能是容易得到的救命錢。但如果不是走投無路，最好別這樣做，韋斯說。
“如果申請了401（k）貸款然后丟掉工作，很快就會嘗到苦果?！彼f?！耙驗檫€貸的時間不會有很多年，突然間會縮短到幾個月，導致經濟更加困難。”雖然《新冠病毒援助、救濟和經濟安全法案》（CARES act）中規(guī)定的免費領取要求并不嚴格，但肯定會推遲退休時間，還有可能增加納稅負擔。
有個方法其實比401（k）貸款，或者提前提取退休現金并導致懲罰性稅收和處罰更好，就是充分了解各級政府和公司聯合起來幫助人們處理當下開支的種種方式。銀行在跟抵押貸款持有者合作，房東跟租房者商談，一些信用卡公司提供無息分期付款，聯邦政府也為家庭提供現金援助。考慮申請401（k）貸款前，先充分研究其他度過難關的方式。
別忽視其他退休賬戶
401（k）之類稅前賬戶意味著，只要提取款項最后一定會受美國政府掌控。為了讓將來的自己擁有更靈活的選擇，不要把所有雞蛋放在401（k）的籃子里，也要用一些其他退休工具。
“取錢出來時，沒人會解釋邊際稅率是多少，不過未來稅率會上升的可能性比較高?！彼髁终f?！耙虼?，我建議將納稅策略多樣化，將一部分錢存在401（k）等稅前賬戶，一部分存在傳統的IRAs賬戶，再拿出一部分存在Roth IRAs賬戶?！?/p>
索林建議，最重要的是保持深呼吸，將眼光放長遠一點，不要魯莽行事。“當前的困難終將過去。當其他人恐慌時，保持頭腦清醒才是成功投資的關鍵?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W）
譯者：FEB
就在不久前，美國還在慶祝401（k）養(yǎng)老金計劃中資產過百萬人數創(chuàng)下新紀錄。
截至2019年年底，波士頓投資巨頭富達國際管理余額超過100萬美元的401（k）和IRA客戶人數達到創(chuàng)紀錄的44.1萬。與此同時，富達國際401（k）計劃的平均余額達到112300美元，也創(chuàng)下新高。
現在呢？好吧，2020年一季度的數字還在統計，但大家都心知肚明，數據不會好看。
股市一天漲1000點，一天又能跌1000點，這讓多數投資者都會反復思考一個問題：“現在該怎么辦？”
由于想起經常聽到的警告，即世間并不存在適合每位投資者的普適方案，所以我們專門找了退休實務專家，討論在當前情況下該如何應對。
避免“行為偏見”
當遭逢危機時刻，人類的本能感覺是要介入其中并做些大行動。但其實沒有必要?！比绻刻炜粗约旱?01（k）或聽到財經媒體傳播的恐慌消息，你會想，‘下滑了！我要做點什么！’”丹·索林說，他常駐佛羅里達州博尼塔斯普林斯，是一位財務顧問培訓師，也是《你讀過最聰明的401（k）計劃》（The Smartest 401(k) Book You’ll Ever Read）一書的作者?！暗绻憧炊疾豢?，自然不會太在意。我就建議人們三到六個月看一次報告。”
這一建議尤其適合年輕投資者。他常接到30多歲的人打電話來說非常擔心401（k）計劃，索林會給出標準回答。“別沖動，為什么要這么關心現在發(fā)生的事呢？”他問道?！澳銘撽P心25年或30年后的價值。要放眼長遠，排除所有噪音。”
根據需要更改繳款比例
往401（k）計劃繳款的比例并不是憑空想的，而應根據具體情況決定。如果情況出現變化，則可以調整繳款比例。
“如果經濟上遇到經濟困難，比如家庭收入減少，當然可以暫時降低繳款比例?！卑蜖柕哪鹑谝?guī)劃公司Facet Wealth的聯合創(chuàng)始人布倫特·韋斯表示?！敖档屠U款比例并不算好事，但當前最重要的任務是鞏固財務狀況度過難關?！?/p>
另一種情況下，如果工作沒有受到影響而且有經濟能力，則可以考慮增加一兩個百分點的繳款比例?！斑@并不意味著觸底，但如果算美元平均成本，而且主要考慮10年或20年后，下跌30%后買進最后受益會相當不錯?！表f斯說。
別用現金
危機中很容易出現放任自己亂花錢的現象。不過，白金漢戰(zhàn)略財富公司的首席研究官拉里·斯韋德羅表示，這么做基本上是“放棄投資組合”。
因為未來某個時候可能重返市場，誰能說清楚會是什么時候？由于多數個人投資者都不善于把握市場時機，亂花錢可能導致結果很糟糕。
“最近出現過道瓊斯指數一天內上漲了11.4%，所以如果之前一天清倉出場，現在該怎么辦？”斯維德羅問道。“我認識一些人2009年離開市場，之后再也沒有回來過。如果只在市場看起來安全時回來，那么市場永遠不會有安全的一天?！?/p>
把將精力投入到高效研究中
如果感覺應該調整投資組合才能避免自己發(fā)瘋，則要至少做些可以帶來長期回報的事。
進一步解釋下，近年來401（k）供應商可能也增加不少資金來源，也許部分資金按照最低比例繳納。這些投資選擇可能比過去更好。要多做些調查，考慮選擇繳費比例較低的渠道，不一定要趕著現在市場恐慌情緒嚴重的時候，等到市場恢復正常再研究不遲。
還有一件事值得長遠考慮：如果你曾在多家公司工作，很有可能在各家公司有多個401（k）計劃，有些公司選擇的基金很不錯，有些選得很差。結果導致你很難跟蹤每筆資金，保持投資計劃的目標。韋斯對此建議道，可以考慮將各個賬戶轉移并合并到單一計劃里，未來掌握資金配置情況會更容易一些。
從市場歷史中學習
身處危機之中，人們會感覺當前是全世界最糟糕的情況。但別驚慌失措瘋狂變現，要用更宏觀的視野看待事情。
根據索林計算，1928年以來市場經歷過25個熊市，平均持續(xù)299天，平均損失36%。與此同時也有26個牛市，持續(xù)1003天，平均漲幅達112%。
“現在處于熊市，但一定會再迎來牛市?！彼髁终f?！斑@是股票比債券獲得更高回報付出的代價。如果無法處理間歇性波動，就不應該接觸股票?！?/p>
利用當前重新評估風險承受能力
如果說你將能承受市場上任何危機，這其實是全世界最容易說的話。而真正去經歷則要困難得多。
因此，從市場狀況就可以判斷出自己實際的風險承受能力?！白詈貌灰袚瞿芰Φ娘L險?！彼咕S德羅說?！懊總€人最終都會逼到極限，呼喊著‘救我出去！’然而光靠本能可做不出明智的決定，最后只會驚慌失措清倉逃離?！?/p>
這種情況要避免。如果你不能承受跌幅到30%以上，那就要考慮提升固定收益領域的投資，增加投資組合的穩(wěn)定性。
盡可能避免401（k）貸款
既然已經存了一大筆錢，取出可以免費領取的新冠病毒應急資金，或利用退休金申請標準貸款可能是容易得到的救命錢。但如果不是走投無路，最好別這樣做，韋斯說。
“如果申請了401（k）貸款然后丟掉工作，很快就會嘗到苦果?！彼f?！耙驗檫€貸的時間不會有很多年，突然間會縮短到幾個月，導致經濟更加困難?！彪m然《新冠病毒援助、救濟和經濟安全法案》（CARES act）中規(guī)定的免費領取要求并不嚴格，但肯定會推遲退休時間，還有可能增加納稅負擔。
有個方法其實比401（k）貸款，或者提前提取退休現金并導致懲罰性稅收和處罰更好，就是充分了解各級政府和公司聯合起來幫助人們處理當下開支的種種方式。銀行在跟抵押貸款持有者合作，房東跟租房者商談，一些信用卡公司提供無息分期付款，聯邦政府也為家庭提供現金援助?？紤]申請401（k）貸款前，先充分研究其他度過難關的方式。
別忽視其他退休賬戶
401（k）之類稅前賬戶意味著，只要提取款項最后一定會受美國政府掌控。為了讓將來的自己擁有更靈活的選擇，不要把所有雞蛋放在401（k）的籃子里，也要用一些其他退休工具。
“取錢出來時，沒人會解釋邊際稅率是多少，不過未來稅率會上升的可能性比較高。”索林說。“因此，我建議將納稅策略多樣化，將一部分錢存在401（k）等稅前賬戶，一部分存在傳統的IRAs賬戶，再拿出一部分存在Roth IRAs賬戶?！?/p>
索林建議，最重要的是保持深呼吸，將眼光放長遠一點，不要魯莽行事?！爱斍暗睦щy終將過去。當其他人恐慌時，保持頭腦清醒才是成功投資的關鍵?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W）
譯者：FEB
Not that long ago, in a galaxy far, far away, the nation was celebrating a record number of 401(k) millionaires.
The number of 401(k) and IRA customers with a balance of $1 million or more at Boston-based investment giant Fidelity hit a record 441,000 by the end of 2019. Meanwhile the average Fidelity 401(k) plan balance hit $112,300, also a new high.
And now? Well, numbers for 2020’s first quarter are still developing, but you know as well as we do—it’s ugly out there.
With the stock market whipsawing all over the place, up 1,000 points one day and down 1,000 the next, most investors basically have one question playing over and over in their heads: “What should I do now?”
With the usual caveats in mind—namely that there are no blanket solutions that are right for every single investor—we talked to retirement experts about how to proceed in this fearful moment.
Avoid “action bias”
It’s human nature, in moments of crisis, to think that you need to step in and take dramatic action. No, you don’t. “When you look at your 401(k) every day or listen to panic in the financial media, you think, ‘It’s down! I need to do something!’” says Dan Solin, a coach for financial advisers based in Bonita Springs, Fla., and the author of The Smartest 401(k) Book You’ll Ever Read. “But when you don’t even look, all that stuff washes out. I tell people to only look at their statements every three or six months.”
That advice is especially true for younger investors. When he gets calls from thirtysomethings who are “petrified” about their 401(k)s, Solin has a standard response. “Not to be glib, but why do you even care what is happening today?” he asks. “Your main concern should be what it is going to be worth in 25 or 30 years. So focus on the long term, and tune out all the noise.”
Change contribution levels as needed
The percentage you’re putting away in your 401(k) doesn’t come down from the heavens, it was decided by you at some point. And if circumstances have changed, you can tweak that percentage.
“If you are experiencing some financial hardship, like income reduction in the household, it’s absolutely fine to reduce your contributions temporarily,” says Brent Weiss, cofounder of Baltimore financial planning firm Facet Wealth. “It’s not ideal, but your first step is to shore up your finances to get through this.”
On the flip side of that, if your job hasn’t been affected and you are financially able, you could consider upping your contributions by a percent or two. “It’s not calling a bottom, but if you’re dollar-cost averaging in and you’re thinking about 10 or 20 years from now, buying after a 30% dip will ultimately be a very good thing,” says Weiss.
Don’t go to cash.
It may seem like the simplest solution, to just throw up your hands and dash into cash. But you’re basically committing “portfolio suicide,” says Larry Swedroe, chief research officer with Buckingham Strategic Wealth.
Because presumably you are going to get back into the market at some point—and when is that going to be, precisely? Since most individual investors are notoriously bad at timing the market, that will likely be a bad choice, too.
“We recently had a day where the Dow was up 11.4% in one day—so if you got out the day before, now what the hell are you going to do?” asks Swedroe. “I know people who got out in 2009 and have never gotten back in. If you think you’re just going to get back in when the market looks safe—well, the market never looks safe.”
Channel your energy into productive research
If you feel you need to do something with your portfolio, to keep yourself from going crazy, at least take on something that will pay long-term dividends.
To wit: In recent years your 401(k) provider may have added more funds to its roster, perhaps some with rock-bottom expense ratios. Those might be superior choices to the funds you chose in the past. Do that research legwork, and consider moving into those lower-fee options—not necessarily now, at the height of market panic, but when things have normalized.
Another productive task for the long term: It’s very possible that you have multiple 401(k)s at different firms, if you have worked at a number of companies over the course of your career—some with good fund options, and some with poor ones. That makes it difficult to keep track of everything and stay on target for your investment plan. Consider moving those accounts and consolidating into a single plan, advises Weiss, which will make it much easier to stay on top of allocations in future.
Learn from market history
In the midst of a crisis, it can feel like the worst thing the world has ever gone through. But put things in a broader perspective before you freak out and go to cash.
According to Solin’s calculations, since 1928 we have had 25 bear markets, with an average length of 299 days and an average loss of 36%. Meanwhile we have had 26 bull markets, which lasted 1,003 days and gained 112%, on average.
“So we’re in a bear market now, but there will be a time again when we will be in a bull,” Solin says. “This is the price we pay to get the superior returns of stocks over bonds. And if you can’t deal with that intermittent volatility, then you shouldn’t be exposed to stocks.”
Use this moment to reassess your risk tolerance
It’s the easiest thing in the world to say that you would be able to endure any market crisis. It’s much harder to actually go through it.
So this market moment may be teaching you about what your risk tolerance actually is. “You’d better not take on more risk than you can stomach,” says Swedroe. “Every stomach eventually reaches the GMO point—‘Get me out!’—and stomachs don’t make good decisions, because you’ll just panic and sell.”
That’s the scenario you’re trying to avoid. If you’re not able to withstand a 30%-plus drop, consider bumping up your fixed-income allocation, to give your portfolio more ballast.
Avoid 401(k) loans if you can
With a pot of money sitting right there, taking out a penalty-free coronavirus distribution or a standard loan against your retirement holdings can seem like an easy financial lifeline to grab onto. But don’t do it if you don’t have to, says Weiss.
“If you take a 401(k) loan and then lose your job, that becomes immediately due,” he says. “Instead of having years to pay it back, suddenly you only have a few months—which could add to your financial hardship.” While the penalty-free distributions allowed under the CARES act don't have such stringent rules, they can certainly set back your retirement timeline, and may result in a tax bill.
A better alternative to a 401(k) loan, or taking retirement cash out early and getting hit with punishing taxes and penalties: Keep on top of the many ways that levels of government and companies are coming together to help people deal with immediate expenses. Lenders are working with mortgage holders, landlords are working with renters, some credit-card companies are offering skipped payments without interest, and the federal government is putting together cash assistance for families. Explore options like those before having to raid your 401(k).
Don’t neglect other retirement accounts
Pretax accounts like 401(k)s mean that you will eventually get hit by Uncle Sam when you withdraw money on the other end. To give yourself more flexibility in future, don’t put all your eggs in the 401(k) basket, but make sure to utilize other retirement vehicles as well.
“No one can tell you what marginal tax rates will be when you take that money out, but it would be reasonable to assume rates will go up in future,” says Solin. “So I would diversify your tax strategy, with some money in pretax accounts like 401(k)s, some in traditional IRAs, and some in Roth IRAs.”
Most important, advises Solin: Take a breath, keep a long-term view, and don’t do anything rash. “This too shall pass. Keeping your head when everyone else is losing theirs, is the key to investment success.”
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