今年3月,法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍在愛麗舍宮發(fā)表電視講話時告訴他的同胞,新冠疫情防控“是一場戰(zhàn)爭”。三天后,法國石油巨頭道達爾首席執(zhí)行官帕特里克·波楊在一段視頻中向該公司約10萬名員工表示,能源行業(yè)的在這場戰(zhàn)爭中“潰敗”了。視頻中,波楊臉色蒼白,他在巴黎的道達爾大樓中說,石油價格暴跌,“讓我們的股價被腰斬”。波楊的右手緊握麥克風,就像一位參加脫口秀的人生教練。為了止血,道達爾可能把2020年資本支出削減20%以上,將計劃中的經營費用降幅擴大近三倍,還將暫停股票回購。
但同時,波楊對員工們說,公司不會縮減“新能源”部門開支,后者包括在太陽能、風能和電池方面的投資。他表示,這個部門“將受到保護,原因是我們必須為將來做準備”。因此,今年道達爾將為可再生能源和儲能方面的試水投入約20億美元資金,占該公司資本支出的13%左右,這樣的比例對一家化石燃料生產商來說曾經是不可想象的。
今年春天油價出現了史詩級暴跌,而能源行業(yè)在很早以前就開始對抗生死攸關的威脅了。以前的好日子已經一去不復返,那時石油消費持續(xù)攀升,控制著大多數石油的國家和公司獲得了最為豐厚的利潤。一個讓人害怕的新世界已經出現,在這里,石油需求預計將在今后幾十年見頂,而且是在外部壓力急劇增大的情況下。這種壓力不光來自環(huán)保人士和監(jiān)管機構,還來自央行和對沖基金,他們都要求大型石油公司通過低碳能源來實現多元化。
這樣的壓力已經在重塑能源行業(yè)的業(yè)務策略。能源市場近期的一潰千里,充分表明向低碳轉移的力度正在不斷加大。
油價直線下墜同時改變了石油公司高管和主流投資者計算的投資回報率。它讓許多石油項目的利潤率降到了可再生能源項目長期典型區(qū)間的低端。同時,由于可再生能源項目的能源銷售合同期限一般都比石油行業(yè)的長得多,所以其風險依然較低。此外,大型石油公司削減短期支出對長期清潔能源項目的影響較小,因為壓縮短期開支的目的是在目前油價突然暴跌時盡量減少這些公司對市場的石油供給。
目前石油行業(yè)正處于左右夾擊的境地——沙特和俄羅斯互不相讓造成供給猛增,新冠疫情可能引發(fā)經濟衰退則打擊需求。3月3日到4月1日,作為國際基準的布倫特油價重挫52%,而且4月中旬油價一直在30美元上下徘徊。近幾年全球石油消費持續(xù)放緩,國際能源署同時預測,2020年石油消費真的會下降,這是全球金融危機以來石油消費首次出現年度滑坡。由于存貨價格驟降,主要石油公司爭相削減開支。??松梨?月份表示將把資本支出減少30%,降至230億美元,是降幅最大的公司之一。一些較小的石油公司已經申請破產,其中包括懷丁石油,這家以北達科他州巴肯頁巖油為主的石油生產商一度十分成功。
由盛轉衰,這種情況在石油行業(yè)早已屢見不鮮。石油公司曾盼望4月中旬的減產協議,特別是沙特同意減產,能夠提振油價。但這個行業(yè)的根本性問題仍未得到解決,那就是供給充足而需求增速下降。美國二疊紀盆地受到的打擊將尤其沉重,這個地區(qū)從得克薩斯州西部一直延伸到新墨西哥州東部,有多層豐富油藏。埃克森美孚、雪佛龍和西方石油等大型油企削減支出預示著今年二疊紀盆地的總投資將減少幾十億美元。
Pecos Economic Development公司執(zhí)行董事肯·溫克爾斯的辦公室設在德州佩科斯縣,也就是二疊紀盆地的腹地。他在這里感覺到了即將來臨的困境。直到最近,佩科斯縣被稱為“男人營地”的簡易宿舍還住滿了眾多油田工人,他們讓漢堡店數量屢創(chuàng)新高,讓交通變得熱鬧不已。而現在,所有這些都開始消散。今年3月,佩科斯縣的鉆井許可證簽發(fā)量環(huán)比下滑38%,同比減少59%,這是一個不詳的預兆。溫克爾斯認為自己是樂觀主義者。但他也是現實主義者,他對我說:“減速才剛剛開始,或者說崩盤,叫什么都行?!?/font>
衰退來的很快。雪佛龍3月3日在紐約召開了投資者大會,由于對新冠肺炎越發(fā)感到擔心,會議禁止握手,而是鼓勵高管和分析師用肘碰肘的方式來打招呼。但當時石油公司方面還很樂觀。高管們輕快地用PPT介紹著投資計劃,并且假設布倫特油價將保持在每桶60美元的水平。
三天后,沙特和俄羅斯的價格戰(zhàn)讓油價一瀉千里。3月23日,竭力尋找對策的雪佛龍宣布將把2020年資本支出預算削減20%,降至160億美元。砍掉的資本支出將集中在短期生產上,其中近一半來自對二疊紀盆地油氣生產的壓縮。該公司還會裁員。雪佛龍首席財務官皮埃爾·布列柏告訴我,當前的滑坡“是石油行業(yè)曾經歷的最困難的一次。假設今后兩年油價都處在30美元的水平當然是我們需要嚴陣以待的緊張狀況”。
但布列柏說雪佛龍降低自身碳密度的長期計劃“基本不受影響”。這些計劃包括翻新石油鉆探項目以提高其能效。同時,雪佛龍還在澳大利亞一座沿海天然氣田顯著擴大了“碳捕捉與封存”技術的應用范圍。此項技術可捕捉排入大氣的二氧化碳并將其壓入地下。許多科學家都認為這是控制氣候變化的關鍵措施。
新冠疫情帶來的經濟減速還彰顯了可再生能源的競爭力,特別是在電力市場,而且越來越多的石油公司都決定必須參與到這個市場中。世界上許多地區(qū)的電力需求都已下降,而由此產生的結果是當地的太陽能和風能電力占比不斷上升,這既是因為此類能源的燃料成本為零,也是因為它們獲得了發(fā)電補貼。國際能源署執(zhí)行董事法蒂赫·比羅爾在3月份的一篇分析報告中寫道,全球性崩潰“讓一些電力系統邁向未來的步伐加快了10年,如果不是這樣,它們的風電和光伏電力規(guī)模還需要10年的投資才能達到這種水平”。
作為綠色能源長期領跑者,加州的情況正是如此。加州電網公司California Independent System Operator(CISO)的數據顯示,受就地避難令影響,截至4月中旬加州的電力需求比正常水平低5%-8%??稍偕茉垂鞠螂娋W銷售電力的價格一般都低于使用化石燃料的發(fā)電企業(yè),原因是如果不用,可再生能源就會流失,這一點和化石燃料不同。CISO首席執(zhí)行官史蒂夫·貝爾貝里希對我說,因此,“應該可以預見到可再生能源在用電負荷中占的比重要比平時高”。這就放大了一個問題,那就是在光照特別強或者風特別大的時候,可再生能源產生的電力會超過加州的用電量。這個問題又凸顯出提高電網靈活性正變得越發(fā)重要,以便通過儲能等技術吸納可再生能源提供的更多電力。
可再生能源項目并非不受全球經濟滑坡影響。隨著工廠、航運和電力需求陷入停滯,光伏面板和風力發(fā)電機整體銷量正從最近的高點回落。在道達爾,高管們表示一些太陽能電站和風電場項目的建設可能出現延誤,原因是新冠疫情讓工人無法開工。但從某個角度而言,這正是清潔能源技術取得進展的標志——作為曾經的四舍五入零頭,它們現在已經是很重要的行業(yè),因為宏觀經濟因素對它們的影響已經和對化石燃料巨頭的影響一樣大。
此外,清潔能源遇到的阻力是相對的。研究機構Wood Mackenzie指出,就在石油行業(yè)遇到近一個時期最糟糕的一年時,光伏和風能發(fā)電裝機容量依然勢頭迅猛。該機構預計,2020年全球光伏項目將略有減少,但2021年將再度實現快速增長,年度風電裝機容量則將再創(chuàng)新高。
本文另一版本登載于《財富》雜志2020年5月刊,標題為《石油行業(yè)烏云背后的‘綠色’幸福線》(財富中文網)
譯者:Charlie
審校:夏林
今年3月,法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍在愛麗舍宮發(fā)表電視講話時告訴他的同胞,新冠疫情防控“是一場戰(zhàn)爭”。三天后,法國石油巨頭道達爾首席執(zhí)行官帕特里克·波楊在一段視頻中向該公司約10萬名員工表示,能源行業(yè)的在這場戰(zhàn)爭中“潰敗”了。視頻中,波楊臉色蒼白,他在巴黎的道達爾大樓中說,石油價格暴跌,“讓我們的股價被腰斬”。波楊的右手緊握麥克風,就像一位參加脫口秀的人生教練。為了止血,道達爾可能把2020年資本支出削減20%以上,將計劃中的經營費用降幅擴大近三倍,還將暫停股票回購。
但同時,波楊對員工們說,公司不會縮減“新能源”部門開支,后者包括在太陽能、風能和電池方面的投資。他表示,這個部門“將受到保護,原因是我們必須為將來做準備”。因此,今年道達爾將為可再生能源和儲能方面的試水投入約20億美元資金,占該公司資本支出的13%左右,這樣的比例對一家化石燃料生產商來說曾經是不可想象的。
今年春天油價出現了史詩級暴跌,而能源行業(yè)在很早以前就開始對抗生死攸關的威脅了。以前的好日子已經一去不復返,那時石油消費持續(xù)攀升,控制著大多數石油的國家和公司獲得了最為豐厚的利潤。一個讓人害怕的新世界已經出現,在這里,石油需求預計將在今后幾十年見頂,而且是在外部壓力急劇增大的情況下。這種壓力不光來自環(huán)保人士和監(jiān)管機構,還來自央行和對沖基金,他們都要求大型石油公司通過低碳能源來實現多元化。
這樣的壓力已經在重塑能源行業(yè)的業(yè)務策略。能源市場近期的一潰千里,充分表明向低碳轉移的力度正在不斷加大。
油價直線下墜同時改變了石油公司高管和主流投資者計算的投資回報率。它讓許多石油項目的利潤率降到了可再生能源項目長期典型區(qū)間的低端。同時,由于可再生能源項目的能源銷售合同期限一般都比石油行業(yè)的長得多,所以其風險依然較低。此外,大型石油公司削減短期支出對長期清潔能源項目的影響較小,因為壓縮短期開支的目的是在目前油價突然暴跌時盡量減少這些公司對市場的石油供給。
目前石油行業(yè)正處于左右夾擊的境地——沙特和俄羅斯互不相讓造成供給猛增,新冠疫情可能引發(fā)經濟衰退則打擊需求。3月3日到4月1日,作為國際基準的布倫特油價重挫52%,而且4月中旬油價一直在30美元上下徘徊。近幾年全球石油消費持續(xù)放緩,國際能源署同時預測,2020年石油消費真的會下降,這是全球金融危機以來石油消費首次出現年度滑坡。由于存貨價格驟降,主要石油公司爭相削減開支。埃克森美孚4月份表示將把資本支出減少30%,降至230億美元,是降幅最大的公司之一。一些較小的石油公司已經申請破產,其中包括懷丁石油,這家以北達科他州巴肯頁巖油為主的石油生產商一度十分成功。
由盛轉衰,這種情況在石油行業(yè)早已屢見不鮮。石油公司曾盼望4月中旬的減產協議,特別是沙特同意減產,能夠提振油價。但這個行業(yè)的根本性問題仍未得到解決,那就是供給充足而需求增速下降。美國二疊紀盆地受到的打擊將尤其沉重,這個地區(qū)從得克薩斯州西部一直延伸到新墨西哥州東部,有多層豐富油藏。??松梨?、雪佛龍和西方石油等大型油企削減支出預示著今年二疊紀盆地的總投資將減少幾十億美元。
Pecos Economic Development公司執(zhí)行董事肯·溫克爾斯的辦公室設在德州佩科斯縣,也就是二疊紀盆地的腹地。他在這里感覺到了即將來臨的困境。直到最近,佩科斯縣被稱為“男人營地”的簡易宿舍還住滿了眾多油田工人,他們讓漢堡店數量屢創(chuàng)新高,讓交通變得熱鬧不已。而現在,所有這些都開始消散。今年3月,佩科斯縣的鉆井許可證簽發(fā)量環(huán)比下滑38%,同比減少59%,這是一個不詳的預兆。溫克爾斯認為自己是樂觀主義者。但他也是現實主義者,他對我說:“減速才剛剛開始,或者說崩盤,叫什么都行?!?/font>
衰退來的很快。雪佛龍3月3日在紐約召開了投資者大會,由于對新冠肺炎越發(fā)感到擔心,會議禁止握手,而是鼓勵高管和分析師用肘碰肘的方式來打招呼。但當時石油公司方面還很樂觀。高管們輕快地用PPT介紹著投資計劃,并且假設布倫特油價將保持在每桶60美元的水平。
三天后,沙特和俄羅斯的價格戰(zhàn)讓油價一瀉千里。3月23日,竭力尋找對策的雪佛龍宣布將把2020年資本支出預算削減20%,降至160億美元??车舻馁Y本支出將集中在短期生產上,其中近一半來自對二疊紀盆地油氣生產的壓縮。該公司還會裁員。雪佛龍首席財務官皮埃爾·布列柏告訴我,當前的滑坡“是石油行業(yè)曾經歷的最困難的一次。假設今后兩年油價都處在30美元的水平當然是我們需要嚴陣以待的緊張狀況”。
但布列柏說雪佛龍降低自身碳密度的長期計劃“基本不受影響”。這些計劃包括翻新石油鉆探項目以提高其能效。同時,雪佛龍還在澳大利亞一座沿海天然氣田顯著擴大了“碳捕捉與封存”技術的應用范圍。此項技術可捕捉排入大氣的二氧化碳并將其壓入地下。許多科學家都認為這是控制氣候變化的關鍵措施。
新冠疫情帶來的經濟減速還彰顯了可再生能源的競爭力,特別是在電力市場,而且越來越多的石油公司都決定必須參與到這個市場中。世界上許多地區(qū)的電力需求都已下降,而由此產生的結果是當地的太陽能和風能電力占比不斷上升,這既是因為此類能源的燃料成本為零,也是因為它們獲得了發(fā)電補貼。國際能源署執(zhí)行董事法蒂赫·比羅爾在3月份的一篇分析報告中寫道,全球性崩潰“讓一些電力系統邁向未來的步伐加快了10年,如果不是這樣,它們的風電和光伏電力規(guī)模還需要10年的投資才能達到這種水平”。
作為綠色能源長期領跑者,加州的情況正是如此。加州電網公司California Independent System Operator(CISO)的數據顯示,受就地避難令影響,截至4月中旬加州的電力需求比正常水平低5%-8%。可再生能源公司向電網銷售電力的價格一般都低于使用化石燃料的發(fā)電企業(yè),原因是如果不用,可再生能源就會流失,這一點和化石燃料不同。CISO首席執(zhí)行官史蒂夫·貝爾貝里希對我說,因此,“應該可以預見到可再生能源在用電負荷中占的比重要比平時高”。這就放大了一個問題,那就是在光照特別強或者風特別大的時候,可再生能源產生的電力會超過加州的用電量。這個問題又凸顯出提高電網靈活性正變得越發(fā)重要,以便通過儲能等技術吸納可再生能源提供的更多電力。
可再生能源項目并非不受全球經濟滑坡影響。隨著工廠、航運和電力需求陷入停滯,光伏面板和風力發(fā)電機整體銷量正從最近的高點回落。在道達爾,高管們表示一些太陽能電站和風電場項目的建設可能出現延誤,原因是新冠疫情讓工人無法開工。但從某個角度而言,這正是清潔能源技術取得進展的標志——作為曾經的四舍五入零頭,它們現在已經是很重要的行業(yè),因為宏觀經濟因素對它們的影響已經和對化石燃料巨頭的影響一樣大。
此外,清潔能源遇到的阻力是相對的。研究機構Wood Mackenzie指出,就在石油行業(yè)遇到近一個時期最糟糕的一年時,光伏和風能發(fā)電裝機容量依然勢頭迅猛。該機構預計,2020年全球光伏項目將略有減少,但2021年將再度實現快速增長,年度風電裝機容量則將再創(chuàng)新高。
本文另一版本登載于《財富》雜志2020年5月刊,標題為《石油行業(yè)烏云背后的‘綠色’幸福線》(財富中文網)
譯者:Charlie
審校:夏林
In March, French President Emmanuel Macron went on national television from the élysée Palace and told his countrymen that in the fight against the coronavirus, “We are at war.” Three days later, Patrick Pouyanné, chief executive of French oil giant Total, delivered to his roughly 100,000 employees a video message about the energy rout that was no less blunt. The price of oil had collapsed, “halving our share price,” noted the visibly pale CEO, speaking from the Total Tower in Paris into a microphone he was clutching in his right hand, in the style of a talk-show life coach. To stanch the bleeding, Total for 2020 would slash its capital spending more than 20%, nearly triple its planned cuts in operating expenses, and suspend share buybacks.
But one thing Total would not do, Pouyanné told his workers, was cut spending on its “new energies” division, a unit that includes investments in solar, wind, and batteries. That unit, Pouyanné declared, “will be safeguarded, as we must prepare for the future.” The upshot: This year, the approximately $2 billion Total will spend on its renewable-energy and energy-storage forays will account for about 13% of the company’s capital spending—a share that once would have been all but inconceivable for a fossil-fuel producer.
Long before this spring’s epic oil-price crash, the energy sector was struggling with a longer-term existential threat. Gone were the good old days, when oil consumption grew inexorably and the nations and corporations that controlled the most juice minted the juiciest profits. A scary new world had arrived, one in which oil demand was projected to peak in the next couple of decades even as external pressure surged—not just from environmental activists and regulators, but also from central banks and hedge funds—for Big Oil to diversify into lower-carbon energy sources.
That pressure already had begun to reshape the industry’s business strategy. Today’s energy-market carnage shows every sign of intensifying that low-carbon shift.
The plummeting oil price has changed the return-on-investment calculus for both oil executives and mainstream investors. It has slashed the profit margins of many petroleum projects to the lower levels long typical of renewable-energy projects. But the greener projects, because they typically sell their energy under much longer-term contracts than are common in the oil industry, remain lower-risk. And the oil majors’ long-term clean-energy activities are relatively unaffected by the companies’ short-term spending cuts, because those cuts aim to minimize the amount of petroleum the firms bring to market at today’s suddenly depressed prices.
Right now, the oil industry is reeling from a one-two punch: a supply surge sparked by brinkmanship between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and demand destruction amid a likely recession set off by the coronavirus. The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark oil, cratered 52% between March 3 and April 1, and prices per barrel were languishing around $30s in mid-April. Global oil consumption, whose growth has been slowing for several years, actually will fall in 2020, the first full-year drop since the global financial crisis, the International Energy Agency projects. Major oil companies have scurried to retrench as their stock prices tanked; Exxon Mobil announced in April some of the deepest cuts, pledging to ax 2020 capital spending 30%, to $23 billion. Some smaller firms have begun filing for bankruptcy, among them Whiting Petroleum, a once-high-flying producer in the North Dakota–focused Bakken shale play.
As has happened so often before in the oil patch, boom has turned to bust. The industry was hoping that a mid-April agreement to curb production, particularly by Saudi Arabia, would buoy prices. But the industry’s underlying challenges remain: plentiful supply and slowing growth in demand. Particularly hard hit will be the Permian Basin, a storied and prolific oil zone spanning western Texas and eastern New Mexico. Retrenchments by major Permian producers Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Occidental Petroleum foreshadow spending cuts in the basin this year totaling many billions of dollars.
Ken Winkles feels the coming crunch from his office in Pecos, Texas, in the Permian’s heart. Until recently in Pecos, throngs of oilfield workers had the bunkhouses known as “man camps” bursting, the burger joints breaking records, and the traffic snarled. All that is now dissipating. In March, in an ominous early indicator, the number of drilling-rig permits granted in the county was down 38% from February 2020 and 59% from March 2019. Winkles, executive director of the Pecos Economic Development Corp., considers himself an optimist. But he’s also a realist. “We’re just in the beginning of the slowdown, crash, whatever you want to call it,” he tells me.
The bust came fast. When Chevron held its annual investors’ meeting in New York on March 3, amid mounting concern about the coronavirus, it forsook handshakes, prompting executives and analysts to greet each other with elbow bumps. Still, the bumpers were bullish. Executives whipped through slides outlining investment plans that assumed Brent would remain at $60 a barrel.
Three days later, the Saudi-Russia fight sent oil prices through the floor. On March 24, Chevron, scrambling to regain its bearings, announced it would cut its 2020 capital-spending budget 20%, to $16 billion. The cuts will focus on short-term production—nearly half will come by curbing production in the Permian Basin. They’ll also include layoffs. This downturn is “the most difficult one the industry has faced,” Pierre Breber, Chevron’s chief financial officer, tells me. “Assuming that oil stays at $30 for two years is certainly a stress case that we need to have our arms around.”
But Breber says Chevron’s long-term plan to cut its carbon intensity is “l(fā)argely intact.” Those plans include retrofitting oil-drilling operations to make them more energy-efficient. Chevron is also ramping up, notably at a massive natural-gas field off the coast of Australia, a technology called “carbon capture and sequestration,” which grabs carbon-dioxide emissions and shoots them underground—an approach many scientists see as essential to curbing climate change.
The virus-driven economic slowdown, too, is highlighting the competitiveness of renewable energy—?particularly in electricity markets, where oil companies increasingly are deciding they must play. In many parts of the world, power demand has fallen. Those declines have had the effect of increasing the percentage of power in those markets that’s supplied by solar and wind, both because their fuel is free and because of production subsidies they get. The global crash has “fast-forwarded some power systems 10 years into the future,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, wrote in a March analysis, “suddenly giving them levels of wind and solar power that they wouldn’t have had otherwise without another decade of investment.”
A case in point is California, long a green-energy leader. As of mid-April, with the state’s population under shelter-in-place orders, weekday electricity demand was down 5% to 8% below normal levels, according to the state’s power-grid manager, the California Independent System Operator. Renewable-energy generators typically sell their power to the grid at lower prices than fossil-fuel generators do, because their energy, unlike fossil fuel, is lost if they don’t use it. So “it’s a reasonable conclusion that renewables are serving a higher percentage of the load than they would otherwise,” Steve Berberich, chief executive of the operator, tells me. That has amplified the problem that, at times of particularly strong sunshine or wind, renewable-energy sources generate more power than California can use. And that highlights the rising importance of improving the nimbleness of power grids—with technologies such as energy storage—to accommodate greater supplies from renewables.
Renewable-energy projects aren’t immune to the global economic shock. Overall growth in solar-panel and wind-turbine sales is slowing from its recently torrid levels, as factories, shipping, and electricity demand take a pause. At France’s ?Total, executives say that construction delays are likely for some solar and wind farms because coronavirus-related restrictions are waylaying workers. In a sense, though, that’s a sign of the progress that clean-energy technologies have made: Once a rounding error, they’re now significant enough as industries that they’re as exposed to macroeconomic forces as are the fossil-fuel behemoths.
The headwinds for clean energy, moreover, are relative. As oil heads for its worst year in recent memory, solar and wind installations remain strong, according to Wood Mackenzie. Global solar projects will dip a bit in 2020 before resuming quick growth next year, the research firm projects, and wind installations will post a new yearly record.?
A version of this article appears in the May 2020 issue of Fortune with the headline "A ‘green’ silver lining to an oil-patch cloud."