對(duì)投資者來說,要想實(shí)現(xiàn)長(zhǎng)期安全的投資,一個(gè)主要原則就是確保投資的多樣化,也就是要把你的資本分散到股票、債券以及其他資產(chǎn)上,做到不把所有雞蛋放到一個(gè)籃子里。而包括債券和高分紅股票在內(nèi)的所謂“收益型投資”在多樣化投資戰(zhàn)略中扮演了一個(gè)相當(dāng)重要的角色,因?yàn)榧幢闶窃谫Y本價(jià)格下跌的時(shí)候,它們所產(chǎn)生的收益,也能讓你的投資實(shí)現(xiàn)一丟丟的增長(zhǎng)。
不過新冠疫情引發(fā)市場(chǎng)危機(jī)也給這種基本的投資理念帶來了考驗(yàn)。在從2月末到3月末這短短的一個(gè)月里,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的跌幅達(dá)到了31%,這種損失幾乎是不可能靠分紅來彌補(bǔ)的。而隨著市場(chǎng)對(duì)債券需求的上升,美國(guó)國(guó)債的收益率也跌至歷史低點(diǎn),與此同時(shí),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)降息至零利率,因此,債券也不太可能為新買家提供太多收益了。
雖然最近幾周市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)趨于穩(wěn)定,但由于長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)前景較為負(fù)面,市場(chǎng)仍然存在很大的不確定性,初步的預(yù)測(cè)也不太樂觀。
這一切的結(jié)果是,如果你是一個(gè)收益型投資者,那么你的選擇余地變得更有限了。好的一面是,很多收益型資產(chǎn)都在折價(jià)出售——只要你愿意承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
尋找真正的分紅股
降息一般都伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的不確定性,年初以來的形勢(shì)更加證明了這一點(diǎn)。對(duì)于高分紅的公司來說,降息通常是一個(gè)好消息。
晨星公司在最近的一項(xiàng)研究中發(fā)現(xiàn),在股市繁榮時(shí)期,現(xiàn)金流穩(wěn)定的大盤股的表現(xiàn)經(jīng)常是有些滯后的。但當(dāng)利率下降時(shí),它們的表現(xiàn)反而有所提振。大企業(yè)一般是很注重分紅的持續(xù)性和增長(zhǎng)性的,除非確實(shí)面臨重大危機(jī),否則一般不太可能削減分紅。
不過,在疫情這樣的危機(jī)中,并非所有分紅的股票都是平等的。在股價(jià)普遍下跌時(shí),某一家公司的分紅可能會(huì)顯得比實(shí)際上更多,因?yàn)楣蓛r(jià)的下跌意味著收益率相對(duì)更高了(你可以用每股股息除以股價(jià)來計(jì)算收益率)。不過當(dāng)企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)陷入困境時(shí),它們有時(shí)也會(huì)削減或暫停分紅。(從年初到現(xiàn)在,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)企業(yè)中,已經(jīng)有30多家公司削減或暫停了分紅。通用汽車也于本周一上午宣布暫停分紅。)
那么,現(xiàn)在哪些分紅的股票看起來比較穩(wěn)定呢?公共事業(yè)類的股票看起來是相對(duì)安全的,此外還有非耐用消費(fèi)品企業(yè)——比如寶潔、卡夫亨氏、家樂氏、摩森康勝等快消品和食品飲料業(yè)的巨頭。晨星公司的研究表明,在利率下降的大環(huán)境下,這些行業(yè)的業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)相對(duì)來說也會(huì)更好一些。
Betterment公司是美國(guó)的一家機(jī)器人領(lǐng)域的投資顧問公司,該公司的投資總監(jiān)亞當(dāng)·格里利什提醒道,如果你打算投資較為安全的分紅股,一定不要忽視股票的收益率。根據(jù)桑伯格投資管理公司的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查,自2011年以來,股息在股市總回報(bào)中的占比僅僅略高于20%。換句話說,如果一家公司的股價(jià)在近期的崩盤之前就表現(xiàn)得很差,那么單看分紅,可能也不值得買進(jìn)。
不過,對(duì)于追求紅利的投資者來說,近期的股市波動(dòng)也有一個(gè)好處。弗雷澤投資管理公司的總裁史蒂文·弗雷澤指出:“目前的價(jià)格是受到抑制的”,這為投資者提供了一個(gè)吃進(jìn)“去年還非常貴”的高評(píng)級(jí)公司的股票的機(jī)會(huì)。
費(fèi)雷澤的觀點(diǎn)也可以從Proshares公司的標(biāo)普500紅利貴族指數(shù)ETF基金(代碼:NOBL)身上得到印證。這只ETF基金今年已經(jīng)下跌了18%左右,而標(biāo)普500指數(shù)則大約下跌了13%。這種下跌反映的可能是短期的恐慌,并不表示人們對(duì)這只ETF基金選取的股票長(zhǎng)期看跌。NOBL選取的公司,都是在過去25年中股息逐年增加的公司,即便是在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行時(shí)期也是如此。
用公司債分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
隨著“超級(jí)安全”的美國(guó)國(guó)債的收益率越來越低,尋求收益的投資者們也把目光瞄準(zhǔn)了一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更高的投資產(chǎn)品。
但是,現(xiàn)在很多企業(yè)的前景尚不明朗,現(xiàn)在還并不是買入風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最高的垃圾級(jí)債券的時(shí)候——哪怕它們承諾的收益很高。弗雷澤認(rèn)為,投資者最多只能承擔(dān)投資級(jí)債券的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這種債券雖然名為“投資級(jí)”,但事實(shí)上也未必真的那么安全,因?yàn)橐咔橐呀?jīng)影響到了其中一些公司的償債能力。不過,只要美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)能挺過這場(chǎng)危機(jī),即便大傷元?dú)?,投資級(jí)債券的很多發(fā)行者仍將可以繼續(xù)償還債務(wù)。
ICE BofAML美國(guó)公司債指數(shù)是一個(gè)專門追蹤投資級(jí)公司債的指數(shù),目前它的有效收益率在3%左右。此外,美國(guó)還有不少追蹤投資級(jí)公司債的低成本的ETF基金。
老辦法依然管用:買房收租
有的投資者可能對(duì)投資流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)持悲觀態(tài)度,那么不妨考慮一種更傳統(tǒng)的創(chuàng)收方式——收租。弗雷澤指出,不動(dòng)產(chǎn)是一種“不錯(cuò)的分散投資工具”,相對(duì)來說不容易受到當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)的影響。來自房地美公司的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,上周,美國(guó)的30年定期不動(dòng)產(chǎn)按揭貸款利率平均只有3.33%,已經(jīng)接近了歷史最低水平,而去年夏天,這個(gè)數(shù)字還是在4%以上。
必須要指出的是,在疫情期間購(gòu)買房產(chǎn)并不是一個(gè)好的選擇。同樣,在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行時(shí)期買房也是很有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的。但如果股票和債券市場(chǎng)一直動(dòng)蕩不休的話,一筆穩(wěn)定的租金收入相比之下也是很有吸引力的。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:隋遠(yuǎn)洙
對(duì)投資者來說,要想實(shí)現(xiàn)長(zhǎng)期安全的投資,一個(gè)主要原則就是確保投資的多樣化,也就是要把你的資本分散到股票、債券以及其他資產(chǎn)上,做到不把所有雞蛋放到一個(gè)籃子里。而包括債券和高分紅股票在內(nèi)的所謂“收益型投資”在多樣化投資戰(zhàn)略中扮演了一個(gè)相當(dāng)重要的角色,因?yàn)榧幢闶窃谫Y本價(jià)格下跌的時(shí)候,它們所產(chǎn)生的收益,也能讓你的投資實(shí)現(xiàn)一丟丟的增長(zhǎng)。
不過新冠疫情引發(fā)市場(chǎng)危機(jī)也給這種基本的投資理念帶來了考驗(yàn)。在從2月末到3月末這短短的一個(gè)月里,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的跌幅達(dá)到了31%,這種損失幾乎是不可能靠分紅來彌補(bǔ)的。而隨著市場(chǎng)對(duì)債券需求的上升,美國(guó)國(guó)債的收益率也跌至歷史低點(diǎn),與此同時(shí),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)降息至零利率,因此,債券也不太可能為新買家提供太多收益了。
雖然最近幾周市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)趨于穩(wěn)定,但由于長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)前景較為負(fù)面,市場(chǎng)仍然存在很大的不確定性,初步的預(yù)測(cè)也不太樂觀。
這一切的結(jié)果是,如果你是一個(gè)收益型投資者,那么你的選擇余地變得更有限了。好的一面是,很多收益型資產(chǎn)都在折價(jià)出售——只要你愿意承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
尋找真正的分紅股
降息一般都伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的不確定性,年初以來的形勢(shì)更加證明了這一點(diǎn)。對(duì)于高分紅的公司來說,降息通常是一個(gè)好消息。
晨星公司在最近的一項(xiàng)研究中發(fā)現(xiàn),在股市繁榮時(shí)期,現(xiàn)金流穩(wěn)定的大盤股的表現(xiàn)經(jīng)常是有些滯后的。但當(dāng)利率下降時(shí),它們的表現(xiàn)反而有所提振。大企業(yè)一般是很注重分紅的持續(xù)性和增長(zhǎng)性的,除非確實(shí)面臨重大危機(jī),否則一般不太可能削減分紅。
不過,在疫情這樣的危機(jī)中,并非所有分紅的股票都是平等的。在股價(jià)普遍下跌時(shí),某一家公司的分紅可能會(huì)顯得比實(shí)際上更多,因?yàn)楣蓛r(jià)的下跌意味著收益率相對(duì)更高了(你可以用每股股息除以股價(jià)來計(jì)算收益率)。不過當(dāng)企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)陷入困境時(shí),它們有時(shí)也會(huì)削減或暫停分紅。(從年初到現(xiàn)在,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)企業(yè)中,已經(jīng)有30多家公司削減或暫停了分紅。通用汽車也于本周一上午宣布暫停分紅。)
那么,現(xiàn)在哪些分紅的股票看起來比較穩(wěn)定呢?公共事業(yè)類的股票看起來是相對(duì)安全的,此外還有非耐用消費(fèi)品企業(yè)——比如寶潔、卡夫亨氏、家樂氏、摩森康勝等快消品和食品飲料業(yè)的巨頭。晨星公司的研究表明,在利率下降的大環(huán)境下,這些行業(yè)的業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)相對(duì)來說也會(huì)更好一些。
Betterment公司是美國(guó)的一家機(jī)器人領(lǐng)域的投資顧問公司,該公司的投資總監(jiān)亞當(dāng)·格里利什提醒道,如果你打算投資較為安全的分紅股,一定不要忽視股票的收益率。根據(jù)桑伯格投資管理公司的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查,自2011年以來,股息在股市總回報(bào)中的占比僅僅略高于20%。換句話說,如果一家公司的股價(jià)在近期的崩盤之前就表現(xiàn)得很差,那么單看分紅,可能也不值得買進(jìn)。
不過,對(duì)于追求紅利的投資者來說,近期的股市波動(dòng)也有一個(gè)好處。弗雷澤投資管理公司的總裁史蒂文·弗雷澤指出:“目前的價(jià)格是受到抑制的”,這為投資者提供了一個(gè)吃進(jìn)“去年還非常貴”的高評(píng)級(jí)公司的股票的機(jī)會(huì)。
費(fèi)雷澤的觀點(diǎn)也可以從Proshares公司的標(biāo)普500紅利貴族指數(shù)ETF基金(代碼:NOBL)身上得到印證。這只ETF基金今年已經(jīng)下跌了18%左右,而標(biāo)普500指數(shù)則大約下跌了13%。這種下跌反映的可能是短期的恐慌,并不表示人們對(duì)這只ETF基金選取的股票長(zhǎng)期看跌。NOBL選取的公司,都是在過去25年中股息逐年增加的公司,即便是在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行時(shí)期也是如此。
用公司債分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
隨著“超級(jí)安全”的美國(guó)國(guó)債的收益率越來越低,尋求收益的投資者們也把目光瞄準(zhǔn)了一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更高的投資產(chǎn)品。
但是,現(xiàn)在很多企業(yè)的前景尚不明朗,現(xiàn)在還并不是買入風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最高的垃圾級(jí)債券的時(shí)候——哪怕它們承諾的收益很高。弗雷澤認(rèn)為,投資者最多只能承擔(dān)投資級(jí)債券的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這種債券雖然名為“投資級(jí)”,但事實(shí)上也未必真的那么安全,因?yàn)橐咔橐呀?jīng)影響到了其中一些公司的償債能力。不過,只要美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)能挺過這場(chǎng)危機(jī),即便大傷元?dú)?,投資級(jí)債券的很多發(fā)行者仍將可以繼續(xù)償還債務(wù)。
ICE BofAML美國(guó)公司債指數(shù)是一個(gè)專門追蹤投資級(jí)公司債的指數(shù),目前它的有效收益率在3%左右。此外,美國(guó)還有不少追蹤投資級(jí)公司債的低成本的ETF基金。
老辦法依然管用:買房收租
有的投資者可能對(duì)投資流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)持悲觀態(tài)度,那么不妨考慮一種更傳統(tǒng)的創(chuàng)收方式——收租。弗雷澤指出,不動(dòng)產(chǎn)是一種“不錯(cuò)的分散投資工具”,相對(duì)來說不容易受到當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)的影響。來自房地美公司的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,上周,美國(guó)的30年定期不動(dòng)產(chǎn)按揭貸款利率平均只有3.33%,已經(jīng)接近了歷史最低水平,而去年夏天,這個(gè)數(shù)字還是在4%以上。
必須要指出的是,在疫情期間購(gòu)買房產(chǎn)并不是一個(gè)好的選擇。同樣,在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行時(shí)期買房也是很有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的。但如果股票和債券市場(chǎng)一直動(dòng)蕩不休的話,一筆穩(wěn)定的租金收入相比之下也是很有吸引力的。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:隋遠(yuǎn)洙
The strategy of diversifying your portfolio—spreading your investments across stocks, bonds, and other assets—has always been a main principle of safe, long-term investing. And income-yielding investments, including bonds and high-dividend stocks, have played a particularly big role in that strategy, because the income they generate can help inject a bit of growth into your portfolio, even when asset prices are sinking.
But the market crises prompted by the coronavirus pandemic are putting this basic tenet of investing to the test. The sheer velocity of the market’s decline—the S&P 500 fell 31% in a month’s time from late February through late March—could scarcely be mitigated by dividends. And as demand for bonds rose, U.S. Treasury yields reached all-time lows, while the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates to zero, making bonds less likely to provide much income benefit to new buyers.
While the market has stabilized in recent weeks, much remains uncertain about the long-term economic fallout—and initial forecasts aren’t exactly upbeat.
The upshot of all this is that for those seeking income from their investments, the options have become more limited. On the plus side, many of your income choices have now gone on sale, if you have an appetite for risk.
Hunting for the right dividends
Falling interest rates often go hand in hand with economic uncertainty, and that has certainly been true since the beginning of this year. And falling rates are usually good news for companies that pay hefty dividends.
In a recent study, research firm Morningstar found that large-cap stocks with stable cash flows often lag during stock-market booms. But they usually get a boost when interest rates fall, according to the report. Large firms take pride in the longevity and growth of their payouts, and they’re not likely to cut their dividend unless they're up against a wall.
Still, in a crisis like this, not all dividend stocks are created equal. The math of an individual company’s dividend can look deceptively large when share prices plummet, since a falling share price means a higher yield (you calculate yield by dividing the dividend per share by the stock price per share). And when companies get badly pinched, they sometimes cut or suspend their dividends. (So far in 2020, more than 30 companies in the S&P 500 have either reduced or suspended their dividend payout; General Motors announced a dividend-suspension Monday morning.)
So which dividend-paying stocks appear to be stable right now? Utilities look relatively secure, and so do consumer non-durable goods—think consumer-products giants like Procter & Gamble and food and beverage makers like Kraft Heinz, Kellogg, and Molson Coors. Morningstar’s research suggests that those sectors also outperform in a falling-interest-rate environment.
If you’re moving towards safer dividend payers, make sure not to overlook the stock returns, warns Adam Grealish, director of investing for robo-advisor Betterment. Dividends have accounted for only a bit more than 20% of total returns in the market since 2011, according to research from Thornburg Investment Management. If a company’s stock price was going nowhere before the recent crash, in other words, its dividend alone may not make it worth scooping up.
Still, for dividend-hunters, there’s one upside to the recent volatility. “Prices are depressed,” says Steven Frazier, president of Frazier Investment Management. It gives you an opportunity to grab highly rated companies that were “really expensive last year,” he adds.
Frazier’s point is illustrated by the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (ticker: NOBL), which is down about 18% for the year to date, compared to about 13% for the S&P 500. That underperforance may reflect short-term panic rather than long-term prospects of the stocks in the ETF: NOBL tracks companies that have grown dividends every year for the past 25 years, even during downturns.
The corporate-bond balancing act
With ultrasafe Treasuries yielding ever less income, revenue seeking investors are eyeing riskier investments.
But with so many businesses’ futures in jeopardy, it’s no time to escape into the riskiest of bond groups—high-yielding “junk” bonds. Instead, Frazier is eyeing the investment-grade corporate bond space as the only risk worth taking. These bonds aren’t as safe as they’d normally be, since the coronavirus is impacting the ability of some companies to pay their debt. Still, as long as the U.S. economy survives this scare, even in diminished form, most companies in the space will continue to repay their loans.
The ICE BofAML US Corporate Master Index, which tracks investment grade corporate debt, currently sports a 3% effective yield. Various low-cost ETFs track investment-grade corporate bonds.
Safe as houses
Investors pessimistic about more liquid investments may want to consider investing in a more traditional income-generator: rental property. Real estate is a “nice diversifier” that’s relatively free of the current market issues, notes Frazier. And 30-year fixed mortgage rates, which averaged well over 4% last summer, averaged just 3.33% last week, according to Freddie Mac, close to an all-time low.
To be sure, a coronavirus lockdown is no time to shop for a property—and an economic downturn is a risky time to buy one. But if stock and bond markets remain choppy, the security of incoming rent checks may look very attractive by comparison.